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At this point I wouldn’t call it any riskier than exploring for oil in Antarctica. Unfortunately its just as profitable for exactly the same reason.

Nailed it.

The problem with privatizing space is return on investment. There are some places where space is a money-maker; but most stuff -- especially manned -- has no apparent short-term profit.

I was looking at the fact that space treaties dictate that space belongs to the world, just like Antarctica but the premise is still the same. The profit just isn’t there at this point.

“The problem with privatizing space is return on investment. There are some places where space is a money-maker; but most stuff — especially manned — has no apparent short-term profit.”

And no long term profit either. Private companies will self-limit to LEO tourism and satellite launches. Ventures beyond LEO will be done by other governments - at whose mercy those much ballyhood US private companies will be.

Eventually, because of failing educational standards in the US and because of economies of scale generated by those other countries endeavors, the few US private companies will gradually fail.

"The problem with privatizing space is return on investment. There are some places where space is a money-maker; but most stuff -- especially manned -- has no apparent short-term profit."

I see your point. Unlike government, private enterprise is not going to pursue a large goal like space unless there's a profit to be made in a reasonable amount of time so as to not only sustain the program, but also provide a financial reward to those with time and/or money invested in the venture. Private enterprise can't afford to not make a profit.

Another problem with privatizing space, at least right now, is national security. In today's world, air superiority is important in any conflict. How important is space superiority and how much more important will space superiority be in the conflicts of tomorrow? The Chinese seem to know the answer to this.

All this said; history shows that exploration of new frontiers by governments is eventually followed up by private interests when it is found to be profitable.