They're not worried about rioting among the "unemployed". They are worried about the welfare types the day the welfare checks don't come (or bounce).
could lead to ...... could trigger ...... may become .... remains a possibility .... which could be provoked ...... might include ...... if they are prolonged ..... can loosen .... can spill out ....... this could happen .... there could be ....... could lead to .....
The US military plays out endless hypothical scenarios all the time. They've even got a scenario in case we're invaded by Martians. This one just happened to hit the internet.