Well, you have to add 'em up. I think the welfare Moms are more than making up for the yuppies who keep their families small. After all, the tax statistics say that the percentage of people who pay net positive taxes is steadily shrinking. And that is one of the big dangers to the Republic foreseen by Madison and Jefferson.
Regarding the latter, those tax statistics relate more to changes in the tax code (deductions, etc.) than birthrates, IIRC.