Anybody can say any commodity will be bullish and eventually be right.
What separates true predicters from the people just throwing out static noise is a timeline and numbers.
So when will the gold market crash, what and when will the bottom be...within, let's say, $100 on price, and a fiscal quarter (3 month period) on a timeline?
I'll bookmark this thread to see how you do.
I’m smart enough to not claim to be a fortune teller. I am more a statistical odds person.
Sometimes my radar goes up, when something gets out of control. There are times when I’m early in my bubble calls, but usually my sense of “somethings terribly wrong”, is usually proven correct in a fairly reasonable period of time. Weeks, month or few.
My China crash question, was in November of 2007. A series of concerns and events had gotten my radar up there too. I wasn’t alone, a 9mo put was priced with a 35% premium...
Meanwhile CNBC was interviewing Buffett on the juicy Chinese investment angles...
Hey, I’ll readily admit I make mistakes, and blunders. One big blunder, was not tracing China’s troubles back to our shores. But, I did manage to avoid a huge landmine in financials. If I’d have stepped in that, I’d be dead.
For fun, I’ll predict that by July, gold will have fallen sharply from these levels, busted down to +/- 100, let’s say 600.
I readily admit, I could be totally wrong, and by no means suggesting anyone should make a trade/bet on that guess.