Bernanke has a bad track record as a prophet.
Bernanke has a bad track record as a prophet.
_____________
Yes he does! Very bad.
To be blunt...there is ZERO chance of Bernanke being right.
Consider this...the states themselves are in terrible financial shape and expected to ask for package that will go into the one trillion range. Timing is such...that they will try to wait until after the next car-industry bailout.
Then you toss in issues with about two hundred cities in America....which have miscalculated their retirement pensions, their health packages, and the ability to provide basic services. Birmingham, Bama, has a billion-dollar waste treatment plant...that is way beyond what they can pay or expect locals to pay (its probably 300 percent of what the city needed for capability).
As summer approaches, both VISA and Master Card will find thousands of people have given up paying their $500 a month check (over their $40k debt in charge funds, at 19 percent interest). Both will approach the government for some kinda bailout, but no one is going to sign off on paying Bubba’s funtime. I’m thinking that one of these will go under before December, unless the Feds step in.
Toss in oil companies, national airports, trucking companies, hotel chains, and just about everyone else. By December, we will just about cut everyone off and admit we can’t bailout no more folks. At that point, we will start to hit bottom. For about 100 days, you will be about as miserable as possibly can be...with zero trust in your nation, your leadership or recovery.
The only company in America for the next three years that will make money....is Wal-Mart. We will all shop there....buy cheaply....and settle on just surviving through this four to six year period.
My humble opinion is that 2010 will be the worst part of the whole episode. If a guy can pay off his car, his charge cards and his immediate debt beyond the house right now....then do so. Prepare mentally. It will be a period that we can survive.
As for Bernanke....he will come and go. Don’t count on hearing his name beyond this fall. He will be forgotten.
How can you say that. He's every bit as good as Dick Morris!