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From the MTV AI blog on next week’s group of 12:

“9:58 pm - First group next week: ouch. That’s hard. Casey Carlson (goodbye), Stephen Fowler (goodbye), Jackie Tohn (goodbye), Ricky Braddy (goodbye), Anne Marie Boskovich (see you in the wild card round), Brent Keith (hmm), Alexis Grace (goodbye), Michael Sarver (Top 12!), Stevie Wright (yah right), Danny Gokey (top 12), Tatiana Del Toro (good riddance!) and Anoop (top 12).”

So, he guesses Anoop, Danny Gokey, and Michael Sarver make it through. Anoop is the only one I’d be really disappointed to see fall by the wayside, but there are a bunch of strong contenders in this group.

I agree with all the choices except switch out Ann Marie with Anoop. One of those will be the wild card choice.

“9:58 pm - First group next week: ouch. That’s hard. Casey Carlson (goodbye), Stephen Fowler (goodbye), Jackie Tohn (goodbye), Ricky Braddy (goodbye), Anne Marie Boskovich (see you in the wild card round), Brent Keith (hmm), Alexis Grace (goodbye), Michael Sarver (Top 12!), Stevie Wright (yah right), Danny Gokey (top 12), Tatiana Del Toro (good riddance!) and Anoop (top 12).” So, he guesses Anoop, Danny Gokey, and Michael Sarver make it through. Anoop is the only one I’d be really disappointed to see fall by the wayside, but there are a bunch of strong contenders in this group.

That's why I posted a few days back that this setup could be a disaster because if a bunch of really good people are in the same group then some really good people will get cut and they could put a bunch of crappy people in another group and three crappy people would be in the yop 12, while a bunch of really good people were sent packing. I don't like this format at all.

I read early on that the Top 36 will be - for each group of 12:
-highest male vote getter
-highest female vote getter
-next highest vote getter regardless of gender

So it could be very out of balanced this season gender wise, and this first group could produce several wild-cards the judges favor. Unless the judges balance it out, this could be our first gender-heavy season.

But this first group of folks...

Anoop’s got a following already, he’s likely in
Danny Gokey and Michael Sarver both have strong fans

All 3 guys are liked by the judges

Plus, Anne Marie and Jackie with the girls have been favored and shown enough to have fans...

So that’s 5 possible contenders out of 12. Obviously one of those two girls seems a sure thing, especially with a few unknowns...UNLESS VFTW comes through for Tatiana.

But even if you figure two guys get through, there could be two strong “wild card” candidates (the remaining guy and the other female) out of just this first group. Frankly it worries me seeing Tatiana in this group, as I think people will vote heavy for the guys and she could inadvertently get more votes than the other girls just b/c of VFTW

I have never watched AI before the final 12, until this year, do they insist that at least one male and one female go through from each group? What would happen if in the first two weeks 6 guys are chosen, would they only accept women in the third week, and during the wild card round?

Aren't the final 12 always 6 men 6 women?