Posted on 07/20/2008 8:36:53 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Newly formed Tropical Storm Dolly over the NW Caribbean Sea near 18.4N 84.2W. 1008 MB at 11AM this morning. Max sustained winds 40KT, gusts 50KT, moving NW at 15KT.
That's what the Hunters are showing too...
000 URNT12 KNHC 231436 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008 A. 23/14:17:00Z B. 25 deg 59 min N 096 deg 49 min W C. 700 mb 2798 m D. 60 kt E. 007 deg 10 nm F. 094 deg 081 kt G. 006 deg 013 nm H. 964 mb I. 13 C/ 3054 m J. 17 C/ 3052 m K. 8 C/ NA L. C20 M. OPEN N N. 12345/7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF302 1904A DOLLY OB 27 MAX FL WIND 86 KT NE QUAD 10:31:20 Z ;
Major changes over the previous hour:
- Eye is opening up on the north end (sorry about doubting you, NN).
- Motion over the last hour nearly north (343 degrees) at 6.2 mph.
- Pressure down another mb to 964.
The 8am LBAR model run has Dolly behaving more like ‘prairiecane’ ‘07 Erin than ‘67 Beulah: touring the midwest after she comes ashore.
Some centexers might see 3” over the next few days.
Although if she pulls a ‘78 Amelia centex might see an end
to the drought.
If we can keep the wind down, Central Texas can have her. We’ve had too much rain here in the upper-Midwest (500-year-flood type rains in Wisconsin).
?
Tornado Warning in the Corpus Christi area.
The National Weather Service in Corpus Christi has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
Central Nueces County in south Texas
Southeastern San Patricio County in south Texas
* Until 1015 am CDT
* At 934 am CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado just east of
Ingleside... moving west at 36 mph.
* The tornado will be near...
Portland by 950 am CDT...
Corpus Christi North Beach by 955 am CDT...
downtown Corpus Christi... Cole Park by 1000 am CDT...
Corpus Christi International Airport by 1010 am CDT...
When a Tornado Warning is issued based on Doppler radar... it means
that strong rotation has been detected in the storm. A tornado may
already be on the ground... or is expected to develop shortly. If you
are in the path of this dangerous storm... move indoors and to the
lowest level of the building. Stay away from windows. If driving... do
not seek shelter under a Highway overpass.
The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. Get under a
workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is
available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an
interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to
cover your body and always stay away from windows.
If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a
substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the
nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT Wednesday evening
for south Texas.
Lat... Lon 2766 9762 2791 9761 2790 9713 2784 9717
2783 9712 2784 9710 2781 9718 2780 9710
2774 9710 2773 9711 2771 9717 2778 9713
2779 9722 2786 9728 2785 9748 2785 9749
2784 9739 2783 9737 2775 9737 2771 9726
time... Mot... loc 1439z 092deg 31kt 2781 9721
Tmt
Hurricane Dolly Public Advisory Number 13 Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on July 23, 2008 ...Dolly very near the Texas coast with 100 mph winds...eye should cross the coast in a few hours... A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the coast of Texas from Brownsville to Corpus Christi...and for the northeastern coast of Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the border between Mexico and the United States. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. At 10 am CDT...1500 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning north of Port O'Connor has been discontinued. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of Corpus Christi to Port O'Connor. A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect from La Pesca to south of Rio San Fernando. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 1000 am CDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Dolly was located by radar and a reconnaissance plane near latitude 26.0 north... longitude 97.0 west or about 30 miles...50 km... east-northeast of Brownsville Texas. Dolly is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph...11 km/hr. A west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected later today. On the forecast track...the eye of Hurricane Dolly will be crossing the coast near the Texas/Mexico border in a few hours. Persons are advised not to venture outdoors during the relative calm of the eye because winds will soon increase quite rapidly. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dolly is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely on high rise buildings. Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km. Port Isabel Airport just measured 54 mph...87 km/hr sustained winds with gusts to 70 mph...113 km/hr. An unofficial observer just east of matamoros Mexico reported sustained winds of 65 mph...105 km/hr with gusts to 119 mph...192 km/hr. Minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reconnaissance plane was is 964 mb...28.47 inches. Dolly is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches...with isolated amounts of 15 inches...over portions of south Texas and northeastern Mexico over the next few days. These rains will likely cause widespread flooding across portions of south Texas and northeast Mexico. Coastal storm surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of south Texas today and tonight. Repeating the 1000 am CDT position...26.0 N...97.0 W. Movement toward...northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure...964 mb. Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1200 PM CDT and 200 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
TWC calling her a cat2
Cat.2,wish it would just go away.Is it stilled stalled?
Jim Cantori is commenting on the coolness of the water. He’s right. The rain is cold.
Hurricane Dolly Discussion Number 13 Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 23, 2008 Dolly is strengthening. The minimum pressure has dropped to 964 mb with a peak flight level wind of 92 knots. Doppler winds from the NWS radar at Brownsville have been oscillating between 95 and 109 knots around 2000 feet altitude...and the satellite presentation has improved significantly since yesterday. It has now a ragged eye on both vis and IR images. Initial intensity has been increased to 85 knots...making Dolly a category two hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next several hours before landfall. Radar and aircraft fixes indicate that Dolly is moving on a general northwest track or 305 degrees at about 6 knots. However...Dolly is expected to slow down a little...followed by a gradual turn more to the west-northwest later today. This track should bring the core of the hurricane inland early this afternoon. Thereafter...a developing mid-level ridge over the western United States should force the cyclone on a more westward track. Should Dolly move more slowly over extreme southern Texas than we are forecasting...it is possible for it to produce even more rainfall than we are currently predicting. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 23/1500z 26.0n 97.0w 85 kt 12hr VT 24/0000z 26.5n 97.8w 80 kt...inland 24hr VT 24/1200z 27.0n 99.5w 45 kt...inland 36hr VT 25/0000z 27.0n 101.0w 25 kt...remnant low 48hr VT 25/1200z...dissipated $$ forecaster Avila
It’s not been bad yet. If we could get her to spread the water this could actually help a lot of drought areas. We don’t need it.
Any word on things at Mustang Island? We have family who are supposed to vacation there beginning Sunday.
Good from the tropical standpoint; not so good from the tornadic standpoint.
Keep your eyes peeled.
Far too early for damage estimates. Hurricane Dolly has not even made landfall. Perhaps tomorrow for your info.
It’s jinking around, and the last jink was more north than west.
I can see where you are on the weather channel.Glad it’s not bad for you:)
100 mph winds...eye should cross the coast in a few hours.
Movement toward northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained
winds 100 mph. Minimum central pressure 964 mb.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
Too soon to tell. We are waiting to see where she will come in.
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