A VIGOROUS AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN AFRICA A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF DAKAR SENEGAL. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY QUICKLY AFTER IT EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
Posted on 07/20/2008 8:36:53 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Newly formed Tropical Storm Dolly over the NW Caribbean Sea near 18.4N 84.2W. 1008 MB at 11AM this morning. Max sustained winds 40KT, gusts 50KT, moving NW at 15KT.
A VIGOROUS AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN AFRICA A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF DAKAR SENEGAL. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY QUICKLY AFTER IT EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
Vera Cruz should be okay, although you’ll probably be arriving in windy conditions on the dry side of the storm.
I’d stay tuned, though.
I don’t doubt it one bit,,,
It’ll really take off tomorrow...
Is it my immagination or did this storm jog north?http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
Have no idea why it started up, but it was up over a dollar. Now falling back to up .80.
One Word,,,Dolly...
2005 part II
It appears the center is relocating a bit north over time. It will probably not spend much time over land at this rate.
I’ve been at a weather forum all afternoon where that question is being discussed at length, often by people more knowledgeable than I am.
It certainly does appear from the visual presence that the storm circulation is north of the NHC current plot, but they have airplanes and we only have eyeballs.
However, storm centers can shift early in their development, and this wasn’t even a named storm until the 11 am advisory, so even the NHC won’t exactly be shocked.
The only difference it makes is how much time it spends over the Yucatan before getting into really favorable conditions in the Gulf.
And north is worse for Texas, of course.
We can watch and predict, but the important thing is to either prepare or get ready to prepare for the worst. Wednesday will be too late to get started if it looks like you’re going to get the brunt of it.
We’ll have a better handle on it when it emerges into the Gulf tomorrow morning. It still wouldn’t hurt to check your preparations by tomorrow evening. It looks like it’s going to be an active season this year for the first time since 2005.
If you don’t need the stuff for Dolly, you might for Eduardo.
Dvorak IR Image - Loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html
Sure looks like it turned more north to me,,,
Maybe just growing fast,,,?
The next update mite be interesting...
Cleaned the gas tank and filter on my generator this morning, looks like a trip to the pumps in the am. If you click on the link in 104 and fast forward the animation the eye does seem to move substantialy north.
It could very well be, but it seems like it didn’t effect it in the past until they were in the Gulf.
Well its a hurricane now. And once again I find myself prayerfully petitioning God to give us some rain out of it. Lost my shallow lawn watering well today. Happens every dry year. I hate it when I have to let my little green patch around the house die twice in one year (winter too you know). Least I don’t have to mow it. Luckily I have another well up at the top that never goes dry (yet) for irrigating enough bermuda to keep the stock alive.
Only one out of ten storms on this particular path ( a popular one) ever gets rain this far North however (between Austin and San Antonio).
Nice to have a little hope however.
Where did you get the info on intensification to hurricane?
Maybe they got some inside info,,,
The Cajun Express(ultra deep driller) is in the path of
this storm,in the Tahiti Field,IIRC,,,(RigZone.com),,,
I really don’t think they’ll wait till monday to pull the
crew or just drive it out of the path of the storm,,,
That’s just one rig,,,(130 crew)
Lotta people out there,,,
It’ll take a lotta choppers to get them all out...
I keep saying this baby is coming north,,my bet is louisiana.
I think the forecasters are afraid to say anything based on the computer models cuz it’s evident Dolly isn’t pay them any attention.
...;0)
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