After the Olympics at the end of August there will be a bank crash in China and the speculative commodities market will adjust south some 30+ %. The Iranian economy with its 25 - 30 % inflation will have a flush down when the income from oil is evaporating.
Iran will step down its confrontational policies in October/November 2008 and Ahmadinejad is replaced.
Then there will be a military agreement between Washington and Tehran. The Saudis don't know what to think: Is this against the Wahhabis or only against al Qaeda?
Is this wishful thinking or what I think? Sure, it is wishful thinking.
Was it cocktail hour when you wrote that? :~ p
After the Olympics at the end of August there will be a bank crash in China and the speculative commodities market will adjust south some 30+ %.The worldwide economic downturn -- which is due to the price of oil -- will probably have an impact on attendance at the Olympics. The Chinese earthquake death toll, especially among the one-child-household schoolchildren, and the protests in Tibet, have shaken that society. China is lucky that its rice-backbone agriculture is still so labor-intensive (in particular, in comparison with that of the US); FWIW/IMHO, I no longer expect the crude price to decline much by this time next year, but the Chinese economy is so export-driven that the crude price will have a serious impact over time.
The Iranian economy with its 25 - 30 % inflation will have a flush down when the income from oil is evaporating. Iran will step down its confrontational policies in October/November 2008 and Ahmadinejad is replaced.I think you're right about the Iranian economic meltdown (which has been going on a while already), but I don't think Ahmadeadman is going to be turned out in the next election. I think he'll win, then be struck down by the Guardian Council, given a quick drumhead trial, and executed for "crimes". He's grown too powerful, and intends to grow even more powerful.
Then there will be a military agreement between Washington and Tehran. The Saudis don't know what to think: Is this against the Wahhabis or only against al Qaeda?Interesting. I don't see it happening though, even if Ahmedinejad is replaced (by whatever means), because the nuclear weapons program would have to be dismantled with a guaranteed transparency, inspections, etc, as demanded by the US, EU, and UN. :')