Hillary is going to have a big win in Pennsylvania. There is far more racial prejudice in PA than in many states. And they will not vote for Obama. They don't like Hillary but they hate Obama. The more the media played up Obama as a winner the more white working class Democrats decided to vote for Hillary.
The other point is the 10 million dollars spent by Obama was wasted. The only place Obama will do well is in the big cities where there are substantial black populations.
But blacks will not vote in the same numbers they have in the past. Inner city blacks expect to be paid to vote. And the heads of the party in the big cities are mostly white. They are mostly of east European and Italian extraction. They are working class Democrats and they don't want Obama to be the nominee. They are not about to get out the vote for Obama. And Obama had no real way to get walking around money on the street. The same thing happened in Cleveland and other areas of Ohio. Some areas expected to go for Obama instead whet for Hillary in Ohio. Obama has the media and the money but Hillary had the party workers.
Obama could not buy votes, because he does not have the personal available to do it. And the Democratic party workers are all in Hillary's camp.
The media will prove beyond a doubt that they do not have the power to elect Obama and they have no power to defeat Hillary. The loser tonight will be the media and Obama.
This will be Hillary's night. She is going to win big, both Obama's and Hilary's internal polls show it. I seriously doubt if those internal polls are wrong. Even Obama is predicting a Hillary victory.
The media has been lying about Obama's surge. It did not surge at all. Tonight will prove that it is far better to have workers on the ground than millions to spend on Radio and TV.
A couple of things need to be said. I am sure McCain was certain that after years of Bush and the fifth year of a war, that his approval rating would tank. And it has.
McCain was fully aware that except for the inept Carter and the impressive Reagan there have been 8 year cycles since the age of TV started. That is we have Democrats for 8 years and then have Republicans for the next 8 years.
It should be obvious that the Voters turn to the left for 8 years followed by a turn to the Right for 8 years.
It should be obvious that for a Republican to win in the 8th year of Republican rule one of two things need to be true. One the previous president had the popularity and approval of a Ronald Reagan, or the Republican candidate has to move left and hope the Democrat candidate moves to the far left.
McCain has an I.Q. of 133. That puts him in the upper half of those with very superior intelligence. If he had 13 fewer points he would just be among those with Superior Intelligence. If he had 8 more points he would be a Genius.
McCain surely knew that the odds were really great that to win in 2008 he would have to move to the left of Bush. And that is exactly what he did starting in 2001. Why did he change from A Conservative to a RINO in 2001? he must have wanted to win the presidency in 2008. History mandates that to accomplish that he would have to move left.
Everyone with a brain knew that Hillary was going to run in 2008. Hillary is far left. That meant that a RINO McCain could have a very good chance of winning moderates.
If you do the math you can prove that McCain could lose 30 percent of the Republican base but if he increased the independent vote from the 18 million that voted for bush to 24 million to vote for McCain, McCain would still win the election.
That is very likely what he figured and that is what he did. McCain had to count on the conservatives producing 3 candidates to split up the conservative vote. There needed to be candidate supported by the Religious Right, a candidate for the Economic right and a candidate for the foreign policy right. Huckabee, Romney and Giuliani filled that bill nicely. If that happened,and it did,then McCain could win the nomination with just the RINO and independent vote. And He did.
Having started at the center, he does not have to move anywhere for the fall election. But no matter who wins the Democratic nomination, they will not be able to move to the center and the longer it takes the more to the left Hillary and Obama will go. A far left candidate can't win a general election. Be the candidate Democrat or Republican a winning candidate has to find a way to get at least half the Independent vote. It is looking more and more like neither Hillary or Obama will have time to do that. The more they have to fight to get leftist primary support the more the independents will see them as being too liberal.
Obama and Hillary have to appeal to the left to win the nomination, but they have to find a way to move to the center to win the independents. And that will be harder and harder to do as the primaries drag on.
The polls show McCain doing well with independents. If McCain can win most of the independents and some of the base, he will be our next president. Neither Hillary or Obama can win all of the Democratic base.
I believe in supporting the most conservative candidate that can win. This year that is John McCain. Supporting a conservative candidate that can only lose is not very bright. That is what elects full blown liberals. This year is the year for voters to move left. It will take a Rino to win it. And we have a very good Rino in the race.
The Democrats would need a DINO to beat him But they only have Hillary the liberal and Obama the more liberal to chose from.
The game is over and unless McCain screws up big time, this is his election. It is possible that Republicans could regain the house.. not the senate but the house.
bump!
On the news show this morning, Dick Morris stated that PA is second only to Florida in the "oldest age" group. Florida because retirees move there, PA because the youth move out. I am from PA and I moved out at a relatively young age because I couldn't find employment makig the kind of money I wanted to make. This seems to be true, at least in my case.
On another note, I was on the phone last night with Dad. Dad is 83 and has never lived anywhere but PA. I wonder how he would react to your statement that PA is far more prejudiced than we realize.
I never saw it in my family although I later found out that Dad has his prejudices. But he was in far too many houses owned by blacks who had made them warm, comfortable clean places to live for their strictly brought up children to lump all blacks together in Norristown, PA. While I didn't grow up partying with or visiting many black acquaintances, I did grow up being taught to repect the person for who they were, regardless of the color of their skin.
Just one Pennsylvanians thoughts on being brought up in PA.
But I asked Dad who he was voting for last night. He has always been a registered Republican, but voted for the person in some county elections if he thought the Dem was the better candidate. He is also a WWII Veteran and a former POW. So I was interested in his thoughts on McCain.
I am going to send him your thoughts today. BTW, he never did answer me, but I believe he is voting for McCain in November because he hated the Clintons, and I don't think he thinks much of Barry.