That is probably due to you misunderstanding odds. The odds that something will happen is not the same as the odds for something that has happened. The question is repeatability. What are the odds that starting with conditions at a chosen point prior to your birth, you will be reproduced again. If you start one hour prior to your conception I would hazard to guess the odds of being reproduced again are vanishingly small.
Which is exactly my point--once the ball is in the hole, the "odds against" it landing in that particular hole are irrelevant. And given that we're here, calculating the so-called odds against our being here are an empty exercise. I think I understand that much pretty well.