It may not be NASA that sets up the first moon base, but a private enterprise. It will happen someday.
Anyone that thinks a private enterprise will make it to the moon before a government enterprise is deluded. Unfortunately it takes the kind of investment that only a government can afford.
My sources say that NASA will be making a big change in direction near the end of the year, or beginning of next year that will TOTALLY change the way the game is being played. We're talking an about face. The ominous sign is the departure of Scott Horowitz (known for giving us the Shaft). The Stick is Scott's baby, and if what I'm hearing is true, then his departure and the change of plans are well timed in order to do as little personal damage to Doc as possible.
Put it this way, the new plan would mean the spaceflight gap is reduced from almost 5 years to less than 2. It would also free up significant funds for lunar development meaning the first lunar sorties would occur in the 2016-2017 time frame. The development will also negate the weight saving reductions that were forced on the Orion design teams and will bring us back to a better (more sane) design for Orion.
Now don't get me wrong, I would be THRILLED if alt.space could get humans to the Moon. I just don't see it happening without some sort of infrastructure there first. Unfortunately, we only have ourselves to blame for this. Nixon killed Apollo, there are no two ways about it. He hung the albatross of the shuttle around our necks.