Well, time will tell. Personally I think neither 360 nor PS3 has a prayer of first place. They are in a battle for 2nd.
I think MS will be 3rd, not because they capitulate, but simply because they don’t know what they are doing.... Yea, HALO’s a killer app, but it can’t carry you to 1st place. SONY has hurt themselves short term in terms of console sales by forcing Blu Ray to be part of the console, however as Blu Ray wins the format wars, in part because of this decision, and costs of manufacturing come down, Sony will drop the PS3 and it will have more and more going for it.
1) Back catalog of PS2 games, huge.
2) Better games for it, 08 will be the year where PS3 will come into its own in terms of its catalog.
3) HDTV, as HD becomes more widely adopted, and Blu Ray becomes the defacto standard for it, that is another cap in Sony’s crown, and aid in decision making to PS3 over 360. MS made a huge mistake helping revive the HD-DVD format IMHO.
4) Even to this day 360 adoption in JAPAN is laughable, you don’t win a console war without winning Japan.
Long term, I think PS3 will beat MS. Wii will blow them both out of the water in terms of sales. Wii sales will not slow down as you believe, you seem to think fuzzy and cute is all that Nintendo has to offer. This is a classic “misunderestimation”.
The controller allows for completely new game interactions and types of games that have never been thought of yet, and that the 360 and PS3 will not be able to offer.
Relying on this “its got weak graphics” is a fools argument. The DS graphics are beat by the PSP, but the DS outsells it by tons and is cheaper... why? Because it allowed for entirely new types of games because of its new interface... same will hold true for the Wii.
Wii will be a MUST HAVE for a gamer this generation, the PS3 and 360 will be interchangeable, with the only differentiator being who publishes more platform exclusive “killer apps”. And Sony has shown it will win that battle.
You are right about the Wii, wrong about the PS3
>>>1) Back catalog of PS2 games, huge.
Sony will eventually drop full backward compatibility like the already did for Europe.
>>>2) Better games for it, 08 will be the year where PS3 will come into its own in terms of its catalog.
I dont think so, but that is opinion.
>>>3) HDTV, as HD becomes more widely adopted, and Blu Ray becomes the defacto standard for it, that is another cap in Sony’s crown, and aid in decision making to PS3 over 360. MS made a huge mistake helping revive the HD-DVD format IMHO.
I think HD-DVD and BluRay will coexist like DVD+R and DVD-R do now, with the exception that they will never beat DVD. Together they will be to DVD like laserdisk was to VHS, a niche market.
Microsoft did not go with HD-DVD they went with the best option, DVD, like the more-advanced-than-console PC games are going to go with for the next several years.
This means when Sony finally drops the price from $600 to $500 microsoft will drop the 360 from $400 to $300. When PS3 costs $300 the 350 will cost $200. All while the 360 has (slightly) higher quality graphics due to its better GPU and more software due to its much bigger installed base. The PS3 can’t win.
The problem with both HD DVD and Blueray is say you buy a player for you home theater. Now you have 1 HD player and on the other hand you still have a DVD player in your bedroom, den, laptop computer for airline trips and your backyard, in your minivan ceiling, etc. So when you want to buy the latest movie you are better off getting the DVD version so you can play it everywhere. (Or you could get a HD-DVD/DVD hybrid.)
Besides, watching movies on a console is stupid. It wears out your console’s drive so you many years from now when you want to play your old games it dies an early death making your game library useless. Nintendo got it right, why wear out your $250 Wii watching movies when you can buy a $29 DVD player and set it next to the Wii for movies (or use the player you already probably have.)
>>>4) Even to this day 360 adoption in JAPAN is laughable, you don’t win a console war without winning Japan.
The PS3 is failing so bad in Japan it will not help it against the 360. Both are so near zero in sales it does not matter. The PS3 has a lot of ground to be catching up in total consoles sold. It is not catching up it is falling further behind the 360 each month. The Wii saved the 360 in that respect (Japan).