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To: bricks4all2

This link (below) shows the best estimates of temperature over the past 540 million years (chart is too big to paste.)

420 million years ago was about 4C warmer than today. (I believe this is based on Berner's own estimate from GeoCarb).

His CO2 estimates would represent 4 doublings of CO2 so they are clearly saying the senstivity to CO2 is on the very low end of the estimate - probably under 1.5C (rather than between 1.5C to 6.5C) for a doubling of CO2.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:All_palaeotemps.png

It is certainly NOT 3C for every doubling (which would make the temperature 420 million years 12C higher than today and certainly not 6.5C for every doubling which would put the temperature 26C higher than today.) Once again, 4C is what Berner's own estimates say or about 1C for every doubling.

He probably needed to downplay the result (while still publishing his research) so he could still get invited to all the great global warming parties (if you know what I mean).


29 posted on 03/31/2007 3:10:32 PM PDT by JustDoItAlways
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To: JustDoItAlways
Here's the small version of that very nice plot.

His CO2 estimates would represent 4 doublings of CO2 so they are clearly saying the senstivity to CO2 is on the very low end of the estimate - probably under 1.5C (rather than between 1.5C to 6.5C) for a doubling of CO2.

The article says that sensitivity is between 1.5 and 5.5 C. The Cambrian in this figure gets to 7.5 - 7.8 C higher than present, in the 4 doubling range. If the sensitivity is 2 C, that's 8 degrees C higher.

Now, the article says the "average" sensitivity was 3 C - maybe there's a period when the sensitivity is considerably higher. As the continents move around, climate is substantially affected -- the proposed explanation, from Crowley and Berner, of the brief (as can be nicely seen in ancient_geezer's plot) Ordovician glaciation is that Gondwanaland wandered directly over the South Pole.

He probably needed to downplay the result (while still publishing his research) so he could still get invited to all the great global warming parties (if you know what I mean).

Oh, I'm sure ol' Doc Berner still gets his invites. Especially those wine-and-cheese National Academy of Sciences parties.

Thanks for alerting me to that plot. It really demonstrates the Holocene stability "envelope" nicely, and everybody should remember that the much-maligned Hockey Stick doesn't show up until 1000 years BP.

34 posted on 04/02/2007 7:31:54 AM PDT by cogitator
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