I have read his book many times and he is right...
What we need instead of Ares I is an upgraded Ares V design, maybe another RS-68 or two, to get the thing over the 150mT hump. Use it as the only launcher and go Mars Direct (but with better, upgradeable architecture), let COTS handle the LEO stuff or put Orion on top of an Atlas or Delta launcher to get to the ISS.
We need to develop the Moon and Mars in parallel, not series.