Latest from Gloomster Lowry on "The Corner" (actually looking up)

National Review Online ^ | 11/7/06 | Rich Lowry

[LS]

[MY COMMENT: KEEP IN MIND HE'S BEEN A "GOP LOSES BIG GUY FROM THE GET GO," SO THIS IS REALLY IMPRESSIVE]

Some gop chatter... [Rich Lowry] ...from an informal gathering of GOP insiders with their last hunches: They are now optimistic about holding the Harris seat, FL-13. Not counting out Chocola, IN-2, or TX-22. They lament Anne Northup, a famously tough campaigner, is ending on a positive note. (Shrewd GOP strategists have wanted candidates to close negative.) Jean Schmidt, OH-2, apparently headed in the wrong direction. Chabot, OH-1, "flip a coin." A NY insider thinks Sweeney, NY-20, loses (domestic disturbance call will sink him) and Walsh, NY-25, loses, an Appropriations Cardinal who will be washed away by the disaster at the top of the ticket. Bass, NH-2, holds on. Wilson, NM-1, holds on. Gard, WI-8, wins. Sodrel, IN-9, holds on. (If Sodrel and Chocola both win, it could be an OK Republican night.) Simmons, CT-2, wins. Shays, CT-4, probably not (so much for kissing up to the ungrateful New York Times). Doolittle, CA-4, will hold on, and Pombo, CA-11, "flip a coin."

[LS]

I already had Sweeney gone, so no biggie. Had Bass losing until earlier this week. Chabot won't lose---I'm next door to his district. I doubt that Schmidt loses, either.

Then you have Ken Mehlman saying GA Dem seat looks good (i.e., we already got it) and that Hawaii 2 looks good (talk about not being on anyone's radar!)

That now puts us in range of six seats to pick up, maybe seven if you include Melancon.

Mehlman also was quite positive on the numbers for the MT and MI SENATE races !!!

[Pete]

As an aside, I think we should be able to post Exit poll data at 5:00pm for the simple reason that it will be everywhere on the Internet and everyone will be talking about it except here at FR because it has been banned.

Just my 2 cents.

[Coop]

I don't think Schmidt loses OH-02. I still like Irey's chances at the upset tonight. No mention of Bean's seat in Illinois?

[TonyInOhio]

I knew you'd get this posted before I did. :)

Generally good news, I'd say, and very contrary to the "Dem Wave" blather.

[LS]

Not yet. But those at least were on the radar. Hawaii??? No one even knew there WAS a seat in Hawaii.

[LS]

When you combine this with Geraghty's Obi wan info and Mehlman's stuff, we're gonna kick butt.

[LS]

Agree, but you miss the point: when Lowry is starting to say that some of his "sources" are more optimistic, there is a titanic RED WAVE about to hit.

[Coop]

I remember reading about Hawaii's seat a month or two ago, but I really didn't think it would be competitive. I guess Lingle's expected strong re-election is pulling whomever's running on the GOP side right along.

[TonyInOhio]

As an aside, I think we should be able to post Exit poll data at 5:00pm for the simple reason that it will be everywhere on the Internet and everyone will be talking about it except here at FR because it has been banned.

It'll be useless anyway, and the MSM knows it - you can't predict the outcome of a race from exits when 20%-40% of votes are cast absentee or early.

The exits will be junk, junk, junk.

[rjmeagle]

Why look at the data? They have been infamously way off base in 2000, 2002 and 2004. How do we take the exit polls seriously when you consider the increasing percentage of absentee ballot votes and early votes cannot be included in the exit polls? It also has been said that the Dims love to respond to questions from exit pollsters, but Republicans tend to spurn them. I know I do!!!

[shrinkermd]

Kristol has always hated Bush because he supported McCainiac. Even predicted a McCainiac win in the primaries.

[KavMan]

Okay I'm watching CNBC right now and this John Harwood guy is saying he just talked to some republican insider and he said the Dem turnout is pretty big and it's getting ugly here yada yada yada

BS????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[oceanview]

shays ran alot of ads with the mike bloomberg endorsement the final week, and bloomberg is popular around here.

[rjmeagle]

Agree with you 100%. Listened to the FoxNews panel last night. They really p*$$ed me off. I thought that both Fred and Kristol had their heads up their you know what!

[Asclepius]

Man. That guy is gloomy.

[Petronski]

It would be nice to see Schmidt win OH-2. That would be a dash of salt in the DUmmies wounds, not to mention a thumb in Murtha's eye.

[LS]

And this from the GLOOM CORNER (it's amazing how these bozos can't see the forest for the trees, or read the damn tea leaves):

"Don't put much stock in this, since all very subjective and anecdotal (and turnout scuttle-butt is of even less use than exit polls): Chafee campaign thinks they're definitely getting out the Chafee ID'd voters; turn-out is reported to be high in the "T" in PA that is so important to Santorum; Republicans feeling good about their GOTV in MO and MT."

What they keep missing is that based on 2004, WE HAVE THE TURNOUT AND THEY DON'T and GREAT TURNOUT =GOP VICTORY. TURNOUT IS HEAVY IN VA, AT LEAST AT 2002 LEVELS, WHICH IS HUGE.

[The South Texan]

John Harwood is shrill for the Rats. Proves the point that the news and editorial departments at the WSJ are separate.

[LS]

Don't know why, but I've never bought into the notion that Shays would lose.