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To: cogitator

Clearly the time-scales here are different that the century-scale of the current aberration.

Indeed, among many other factors affecting our exceptionally warm geophysical period with current climatic temperatures predominantly driven by Solar heating/cooling arising from variation of solar activity modulating cosmic ray interactions with cloud cover:

http://spacecenter.dk/xpdf/influence-of-cosmic-rays-on-the-earth.pdf

inducing the dominant portion of global climate changes we currently experience:

Sun's Output Increasing in Possible Trend Fueling Global Warming

Sunspot Activity at 8,000-Year High

Sun's Activity Increased in Past Century, Study Confirms

New Scientist - Hyperactive sun comes out in spots

 

 

An interesting test will be on whether or not ocean and tropospheric temperatures drop as this 8000 year high in solar activity reverses as it is predicted for coming decades.

 

NASA - Long Range Solar Forecast

 

And may already be showing up in falling ocean temperatures since ~2003

Sea Change in Global Warming

with of course, additional variations in temperature due to changes in solar brightness coincident with solar activity:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/07/18/wsun18.xml&sSheet=/news/2004/07/18/ixnewstop.html

supported in the warming trendsobserved throughout the solar system:

Mars warming:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4266474.stm

Jupiter warming:
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/space/2006-05-04-jupiter-jr-spot_x.htm?POE=TECISVA

Pluto warming:
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/pluto_warming_021009.html

Neptune's Triton warming:
http://www.scienceagogo.com/news/19980526052143data_trunc_sys.shtml

Saturn's Enceladus warming:
http://www.sciencenewsforkids.org/articles/20060419/Feature1.asp

Saturn warming:
http://dsc.discovery.com/news/briefs/20050131/saturn.html

 

as well as variations in climate effects due to changess in Earth's orbital alignment with the mean solar system plane and the geophysical events affecting planetary albedo that arise from that factor:

 

Ice Ages & Astronomical Causes
Brief Introduction to the History of Climate
by Richard A. Muller

Origin of the 100 kyr Glacial Cycle


Figure 1-1 Global warming (NOAA land and ocean temperatures)


Figure 1-2 Climate of the last 2400 years (GISP2)

 

 
Figure 1-3 Climate of the last 12,000 years (GISP2)

 

 


Figure 1-4 Climate of the last 100,000 years (GISP2)

 

 


Figure 1-5 Climate for the last 420 kyr, from Vostok ice

 

 

 

Spectrum of 100-kyr glacial cycle: Orbital inclination, not eccentricity
Richard A. Muller* and Gordon J. MacDonald

Figure 2. Spectral fingerprints in the vicinity of the 100 kyr peak: (a) for data from Site 607; (b) for data of the SPECMAP stack; (c) for a model with linear response to eccentricity, calculated from the results of Quinn et al. (ref 6); (d) for the nonlinear ice-sheet model of Imbrie and Imbrie (ref 22); and (e) for a model with linear response to the inclination of the Earth's orbit (measured with respect to the invariable plane). All calculations are for the period 0-600 ka. The 100 kyr peak in the data in (a) and (b) do not fit the fingerprints from the theories (c) and (d), but are a good match to the prediction from inclination in (e). return to beginning


Far more important to our present analysis, however, is the fact that the predicted 100 kyr "eccentricity line" is actually split into 95 and 125 kyr components, in serious conflict with the single narrow line seen in the climate data. The splitting of this peak into a doublet is well known theoretically (see, e.g., ref 5), but in comparisons with data the two peaks in the eccentricity were merged into a single broad peak by the poor resolution of the Blackman-Tukey algorithm (as was done, for example, in ref 8). The single narrow peak in the climate data was likewise broadened, and it appeared to match the broad eccentricity feature.

***

Figure 3. Variations of the inclination vector of the Earth's orbit. The inclination i is the angle between this vector and the vector of the reference frame; Omega is the azimuthal angle = the angle of the ascending node (in astronomical jargon).. In (A), (B), and (C) the measurements are made with respect to the zodiacal (or ecliptic) frame, i.e. the frame of the current orbit of the Earth. In (D), (E), and (F) the motion has been trasformed to the invariable frame, i.e. the frame of the total angular momentum of the solar system. Note that the primary period of oscillation in the zodiacal frame (A) is 70 kyr, but in the invariable plane (D) it is 100 kyr.

 

 

There is evidence from the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (ref 39) of a narrow dust band extending only two degrees from the invariable plane. The precise location of these bands is uncertain; they may be orbiting in resonant lock with the Earth (ref 40, 41). It is not clear that these bands contain sufficient material to cause the observed climate effects. We note, however, that even small levels of accretion can scavenge greenhouse gases from the stratosphere, and cool the Earth's climate through the mechanism proposed by Hoyle (ref 30). The dust could also affect climate by seeding the formation of much larger ice crystals. The accreting material could be meteoric, originating as particles too large to give detectable infrared radiation.

Data on noctilucent clouds (mesospheric clouds strongly associated with the effects of high meteors and high altitude dust) supports the hypothesis that accretion increase significantly when the Earth passes through the invariable plane. As shown in Figure 6, a strong peak in the number of observed noctilucent clouds occurs on about July 9 in the northern hemisphere (ref 41, 42) within about a day of the date when the Earth passes through the invariable plane (indicated with an arrow). In the southern hemisphere the peak is approximately on January 9, also consistent with the invariable plane passage, but the data are sparse. The coincidence of the peaks of the clouds with the passage through the invariable plane had not previously been noticed, and it supports the contention that there is a peak in accretion at these times. On about the same date there is a similarly narrow peak is observed in the number of polar mesospheric clouds (ref43) and there is a broad peak in total meteoric flux (ref 44). It is therefore possible that it is the trail of meteors in the upper atmosphere, rather than dust, that is responsible for the climate effects.


Fig 6. Frequency of noctilucent clouds vs. day of year, in (A) the northern hemisphere, and in (B) the sourthern hemisphere (ref 41, 42). The arrows indicate the dates when the earth passes through the invariable plane. The coincidence of these dates with the maxima in the noctilucent clouds suggests the presence of a thin ring around the sun. Peaks on the same dates are seen in Polar mesospheric clouds (ref 44) and in radar counts of meteors.

 

 

http://www.newscientistspace.com/article/dn9228-mysterious-glowing-clouds-targeted-by-nasa.html

Mysterious glowing clouds targeted by NASA
26 May, 2006

High-altitude noctilucent clouds have been mysteriously spreading around the world in recent years (Image: NASA/JSC/ES and IA)

 

http://newton.ex.ac.uk/aip/physnews.252.html#1

INTERPLANETARY DUST PARTICLES (IDPs) are deposited on the Earth at the rate of about 10,000 tons per year. Does this have any effect on climate? Scientists at Caltech have found that ancient samples of helium-3 (coming mostly from IDPs) in oceanic sediments exhibit a 100,000-year periodicity. The researchers assert that their data, taken along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, support a recently enunciated idea that Earth's orbital inclination varies with a 100-kyr period; this notion in turn had been broached as an explanation for a similar periodicity in the succession of ice ages. (K.A. Farley and D.B. Patterson, Nature, 7 December 1995.)
Farley & Patterson 1998, http://www.elsevier.com/gej-ng/10/20/36/33/37/32/abstract.html
Farley http://www.gps.caltech.edu/~farley/
Farley http://www.elsevier.nl/gej-ng/10/18/23/54/21/49/abstract.html

 

http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/pr96/dec96/noaa96-78.html

ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE DURING LAST GLACIAL PERIOD COULD BE TIED TO DUST-INDUCED REGIONAL WARMING

Preliminary new evidence suggests that periodic increases in atmospheric dust concentrations during the glacial periods of the last 100,000 years may have resulted in significant regional warming, and that this warming may have triggered the abrupt climatic changes observed in paleoclimate records, according to a scientist at the Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Current scientific thinking is that the dust concentrations contributed to global cooling.


7 posted on 10/30/2006 11:42:39 AM PST by ancient_geezer (Don't reform it, Replace it.)
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To: ancient_geezer
Thanks again for the effort, and I don't think I'll revisit discussions we have had before. Regarding the "warming" of other planetary bodies, I did respond to Conservative Mind here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1727767/posts?page=50#50

with what I think is good information addressing the linkage (or lack thereof) to solar variability. While I will grant the investigation of cosmic ray influence on clouds and Earth's climate has merit, as noted in the recent post on RealClimate (including the response from one of the involved researchers, #7), considerably more work needs to be done.

Quote from response #7. "Finally an opinion of my own: Press release or not, I am in no way out to attribute what has gone on in the last century solely to cosmic rays or anything else and I am certainly not out to belittle the effect of CO2 and other greenhouse gases." (Note that there have been a lot of additional responses since last I checked this article)

Taking cosmic rays for a spin

9 posted on 10/31/2006 7:05:21 AM PST by cogitator
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