(1) Low end - Open source is doing to them what they did to IBM 25 years ago with the original PC. It's forcing MS to move up the value-chain as newer low-cost entrants take over. They have no choice - they couldn't bring out another OS that just does the same thing; no one would "upgrade" to buy a new license.
(2) High end - Early proponents of 'thin clients' like Larry Ellis, et al were too far ahead of their time. Google is demonstrating the power of what a concentrated collection of IT PhDs can invent/create in the way of functional utilities served through massive server farms.
Ditto large installations like investment banks, etc. They don't need the features/complexity of Vista - they need stable platforms+fat servers from which they can hire their **own** finance PhDs to develop proprietary analytics, etc.
For execs running these types of firms, they're probably hearing from consultants about how they need to create their own internal 'Google' ops, while at the same time avoid spending time & money on some crazy Vista upgrade.
In a way, it's somewhat analogous to Roger Smith investing in robots at GM in the 80s instead of focusing on cars. They got so behind the curve, they'll probably never recover. Ditto today's companies: the key is to focus on how to best develop/deliver applications for one's specific company using the technology/techniques perfected by Google.
It's possible, they have little elsewhere to go but down. But thin clients and open source have been all the rage for a decade now, there's nothing earth shattering there. I'd say handhelds are the next frontier, and right now Microsoft is well positioned.
[Ditto large installations like investment banks, etc. They don't need the features/complexity of Vista - they need stable platforms+fat servers from which they can hire their **own** finance PhDs to develop proprietary analytics, etc.
For execs running these types of firms, they're probably hearing from consultants about how they need to create their own internal 'Google' ops, while at the same time avoid spending time & money on some crazy Vista upgrade.
In a way, it's somewhat analogous to Roger Smith investing in robots at GM in the 80s instead of focusing on cars. They got so behind the curve, they'll probably never recover. Ditto today's companies: the key is to focus on how to best develop/deliver applications for one's specific company using the technology/techniques perfected by Google.]
Had to quote nearly everything you said, so well put.
Here's another thing, Microsoft also screwed up their grid computing licenses on purpose so if you are a farm you'd be nutso to go Vista. So Microsoft has locked themselves out of the truly big end hardware. I'm just a one man programmer do stuff for my in house business, but even I can see using grids big time down the road, so that is the final nail for me.