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More analysis here :

http://www.newsobserver.com/105/story/429286.html

'Idol' watch: And then there were seven Could another North Carolinian prevail?

Danny Hooley, Staff Writer\

No one will be dumbfounded if Chris Daughtry becomes the next "American Idol."

Daughtry, a native of the Triad-area town of McLeansville, is the designated shoo-in to win the fifth season of the TV talent contest. That makes it far more sporting to predict who will fall from the viewing public's grace between now and May 10, when the last three survivors are announced.

Take the week that just passed. Bucky Covington of Rockingham, whose performances always fell short of his down-home charm, was long overdue for elimination. But was it fair for him to get it after his half-decent performance of "Fat Bottomed Girls"? Come on. By comparison, Ace Young's ridiculous rendition of "We Will Rock You" was almost criminal. Covington's exit was his lifetime unachievement award.

All except Daughtry, Kellie Pickler and Taylor Hicks have suffered the indignity of the show's bottom three. The talented Elliott Yamin joined Bucky and Ace this week for having received the fewest viewer votes, which prompted "Idol" judge Randy Jackson to say, "America's a little bit confused." Big-voiced diva Katharine McPhee and teenage soul belter Paris Bennett have found themselves in that humiliating circle in recent weeks.

In a recent USA Today poll, Bennett placed last among females, behind McPhee and Pickler, the other remaining North Carolina contender. McPhee and Pickler both have charisma, sex appeal and vocal presence -- but do they sing at Bennett's level?

Please. Bennett is the show's best singer. So what gives?

With talent just one variable, predictions become brash, based on perceptions of popularity and audience support, with a little something from the gut.

Here, then, are our predictions of how the race will progress. Contestants are listed in the order in which they're expected to finish.

CHRIS DAUGHTRY

Age: 26.

Hometown: McLeansville.

Musical style: Earnest, VH1-friendly hard rock (Creed, Live).

Upside: The boy can sing -- judge Simon Cowell calls it a "recording voice." Daughtry, on hiatus as front man for the band Absent Element, also has the most professional stage chops of any contestant. He has endeared himself to America with his devotion to his wife and stepkids, and the studio audience screams at the mere mention of his name. Last week, he chose an obscure Queen song ("Innuendo") instead of a familiar hit, which perpetuates the idea that he's already an original "artist" before he even proves it with an album of his own.

Downside: His ba-a-a-a-a-a-ad taste in music -- remember when he emoted his way through Creed's excruciating "What if" in late March?

His chances: Bet on him to be North Carolina's second "Idol."

KATHARINE McPHEE

Age: 21.

Hometown: Los Angeles.

Musical style: Mainstream pop with musical theater overtones. It's brassy and sassy when it works.

Upside: At her best, she has a strong vocal presence, and her impish sex appeal works well on Cowell (when he's not ogling Kellie Pickler, that is).

Downside: When she's bad, she's ba-a-a-a-a-a-ad. Her off-key performance of Christina Aguilera's "The Voice Within" last month landed McPhee, a usual audience favorite, in the bottom three.

Her chances: The judges hear a star, but the sound emanating from the TV lately reveals wince-inducing pitch and tone problems on the big showy numbers. But if she can keep up the diva image, she could end up in a showdown with Daughtry.

KELLIE PICKLER

Age: 19

Hometown: Albemarle.

Musical style: She's a little bit country and a little bit ... well, she's country.

Upside: She's sweet offstage and sassy on -- Cowell once called her "a naughty little minx." Brash choices such as Reba McEntire's "Fancy" and Queen's "Bohemian Rhapsody" play up that good-girl-with-a-bad-side sexiness. She also has a poignant back story that includes childhood abandonment by her mother and a father who's serving time in Florida State Prison. And she has a strong contingency of supporters.

Downside: The vacant stare and the ditsy Ellie May banter are gettin' a mite annoying. And her voice thinned out badly on Martina McBride's "How Far."

Her chances: She'll make final three.

TAYLOR HICKS

Age: 29.

Hometown: Birmingham, Ala.

Musical style: Ray Charles, old blues and, we suspect --based on his calypso-y "Not Fade Away" -- beach music.

Upside: He has his own style (albeit borrowed liberally from Joe Cocker), he can sing, his dorky dancing is endearing, and he has good musical taste for an "Idol" contestant. Plus, he's full of surprises -- last week he shot some life back into tired old "Crazy Little Thing Called Love."

Downside: He's too old and too weird for "Idol." Really -- can you imagine this silver-haired singer on MTV?

His chances: The leader of the so-called "Soul Patrol" will head back to 'Bama in about four weeks -- or maybe sooner, if Paris Bennett regains fan favorite status.

PARIS BENNETT

Age: 17.

Hometown: Fayetteville, Ga.

Musical style: Soul, R&B, gospel -- anything that allows her to unleash her powerful pipes.

Upside: She's a born entertainer with chops beyond her tender years. She has it in the genes, too -- Grandma Ann Nesby sang for Sounds of Blackness.

Downside: She's a showoff, which sometimes comes off as the kind of childish precociousness that works nerves.

Her chances: Her early support dwindled in recent weeks, but she may have staged a comeback with her Tina Turner-like rockout on Queen's "The Show Must Go On" last week. Let's figure her for top five at best, and hope for better.

ELLIOTT YAMIN

Age: 27.

Hometown: Richmond, Va.

Musical style: A tasty soul groove.

Upside: He's probably the best overall male singer on the show. And the sight of tears rolling down his cheeks when he sat at the piano next to guest vocal coach Stevie Wonder -- his most obvious singing influence -- showed that his heart is in the right place.

Downside: He lacks Daughtry's eye appeal, and when he's out of his sweet, soulful comfort range (such as when he vibratoed Queen's melodramatic "Somebody to Love" to death), he sounds variety-show corny.

His chances: In a just world, he would make the top trio, but he'll have to settle for an earlier departure, based on two recent showings in the bottom three.

ACE YOUNG

Age: 25.

Hometown: Denver, Colo.

Musical style: Boy-band pseudo-R&B-pop.

Upside: His pretty-boy face matches the boy-band pseudo-R&B-pop style.

Downside: As we used to shout at last season's smarmy Constantine for his creepy, smoldering gaze to the camera: "Stop looking at me like that!"

His chances: Since he made the semifinals, his simpering performances have placed him three times among the week's three potential losers, and the most recent occurrence was this week. Unless he acquires Taylor Hicks' charm or Elliott Yamin's vocal power, he's gone by next week.

In its 5th season, when all other shows either taper off or take a noticeable dive, American Idol continues to soar. Why? I will attempt to figure this out.

http://mediafiends.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=7335&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0

NBC, CBS, ABC, UPN, and the WB. Did you get the license plate number of that truck that just ran you over? Well I did and it’s American Idol seasons 1-5. No matter what is put up against it, American Idol continues to rule. The Grammy’s, you know where the professional singers get together and bask in their own glory, got trampled under foot or wheel, this year and it wasn’t even close. I wonder if CBS thought it would be the show that would put Idol in a tail spin. Wake up call to CBS; No. What it looked more akin to, was the dog finally catching the car; head spinning ‘round and ‘round. What is it with this relatively low cost, high profit show that works so well? Well here goes the Idolheaded’s try for an explanation.

There are roughly 90 (hard to believe) primetime shows on TV as we speak, or write. How many of those TV shows can proudly display the TVG rating in the upper left hand corner. Well, just one. American Idol. So what! you say. Here’s what; this is the only program that kids, teens and parents can watch together without worrying about any offensive content (discounting Corey Hall). This is a big deal. While I love watching, Boston Legal, The Closer, Two and a Half Men, Supernatural (yeah I’m the one person that watches that), Lost, all the CSIs, and Bones, I would not want my younger kids watching any of these shows. With all the problems of youths now, a time when families can all sit down together, (the dinner table use to be the place) American Idol provides us this time.

I have owned and run my own business for 6 years now and I go into anywhere from 2 to 5 homes a day, 6 days a week. The household incomes of the homes I go into are all over the scale. Virtually all though, are two parent households with at least 2 kids and some have as many as 8. In almost every home there is in some kid’s room, evidence of American Idol somewhere. Since I am such a fan I will always bring up American Idol in the conversation if the customer doesn’t. The one commonality for the ones who watch is, “This is our family time. We all watch American Idol together.” What more could you want from television? Well how about entertainment.

No matter how much someone says they hate this “karaoke” competition, they know what it is and have watched it. Those who do watch it are enamored with it. I on the other hand am one of the obsessed. If you are reading this article I’m guessing you are too. You know, we are the ones who schedule their, well, schedules around Idol. Overanalyze every song and contestant. (Everyone’s a critic) We tell friends who don’t watch it to give it a try. (Free advertising) We denigrate the voting process. (Get our two cents worth in) We scour the net to find anything about Idol and especially our favorite contestants. And when we really go over the edge, we write about it. Sigh….

Successful TV programs count on obsessive fans. They can not survive without them. The only other show to my knowledge that had as obsessive fans (not the number of) but was not successful was an 11 episode show on Fox called “Firefly”. But even at that Firefly did get a movie called “Serenity” and a slew of websites. To this day the websites are all very active and the show was cancelled 4 years ago. One could only hope it will one day show up on TV again. This is a great example of a TV show you had to “get” or you just didn’t care. But if you “got” it you were not just merely a fan, you were one of the obsessed. American Idol on the other hand is very easy to get. And around 30,000,000 people get it every week. If you Google American Idol you get over 72, 000,000 hits. That’s more than double the population of Canada. Speaking of Canada, American as well as Canadian Idol are as widely popular there. Actually, American Idol is the most popular show in the world. Even Japan picked up the show this year. What does it mean when all of the networks clamor to have the Idols, winners and losers, on their shows? It means, “We might as well get something out of this since they kick our asses every week”. A semi white flag.

Whether you like Katharine, Paris, Ace, Elliott, Chris, Taylor, or Calamari Kellie, you have a favorite and just like your favorite sports team, you root for them and vote to the bitter end. These kids in a sense have become a part of our family for at least two nights a week. And as family members we care about them, hope for them, suffer with them, and cheer for them. Like the Superbowl or the seventh game of the World Series, we are behind them all the way. While we can’t run back a kickoff for a touchdown or hit a home run in the bottom of the 9th, we do have influence on who will win the title of American Idol and this makes it even a more exciting event for us. And this is the last piece of magic that makes American Idol the phenomenon it is.

Many speculate that if Simon were to leave, the show would die and eventually go off the air. There was a point I think that would have been true, but not now. The show has so much momentum and such a monstrous fan base; I think the exit of Simon would be overcome. We sure would miss his honesty and acerbic comments but I think we could survive without them. Besides we know there is a great replacement for him waiting in the wings. I’m sure you’ve heard of him. Does Idolhead Ed ring a bell?

As sure as the sun will come up tomorrow, Idol will continue to bring great happiness (all of the fans) and great sorrow (All other networks) for years to come. I, as well as millions of fans, and dozens of future celebrities the show makes, should be comforted in knowing......" The show will go on".

Is it Tuesday yet?