Well, you need to know the times your horse is running consistently. You'd know if you had a chance, which IMO, makes the odds better then a lottery. Around here you need to be running not more then in the 20's, for 3D's 19's. If your more then that, you should pretty much know your out.
But I've heard people say, "I've got to slow my horse down, or I'll fall in a crack" Well, that's stupid to me. Why not speed him up, which is what you should always be doing.
Becky
How close are you to consistent, from one run to the next? within a second or a couple seconds or parts of seconds? I don't know how you'd ever know if, in the third turn, you needed to add or subtract a half a second to try to play it that way.