Yep, I think you're right. Although we, the audience, never get to know the vote breakdown among the contestants, the producers and judges know who's pulling in the biggest votes. So I'm sure they try to push the competition toward those contestants who seem the most marketable. I have no doubt at all that this year Carrie, Bo and Lt. Dan are the biggest vote getters -- exactly in what order, I can't guess.
I think you've got the top 3 right. Carrie, Bo and Lt. Dan.
Simon also wants to see that from what I can tell.
Vonzell's the "dark horse" to make it there as well.
The big "match" will probably be between Lt. Dan and Bo Bice(who reminds me of the lost Doobie Brother).
The question for the final 2 will be if the loser's (Bo or Lt. Dan) fan will turn on the other and vote for Carrie.
BTW...the girl's still in on Nashville Star. The Buddy Holly guy, the Toby Keith looking dude, and the "cowboy" are left with her.