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I do not believe it about Florida..

Tony would not say it if he did not believe it to be true.

Here is what may be happening. Kerry has been spending a ton in Florida. But I would betcha his internal polls show Bush in the lead and a 2 to 1 edge in Kerry spots over Bush spots have not moved the numbers.

Kerry is running the ads but he is not gaining ground.

I put little faith in media polls. The media rarely spends enough money to get accurate polls. And wildly fuxuating polls make for good readership and ratings.

How ever both campaigns run very expensive polling efforts. These internal polls are very accurate.

It is very unlikely that Kerry people volunteered that they were pulling out of Florida. But it is true that Kerry has had his spot buys in for weeks but like most campaigns has not paid for the spots. Stations require payment in advance.. many at least 48 hours in advance and spots that air Monday have to be paid for by Wednesday Pm.

What is likley is that the Kerry campaign has cancelled some spot buys in Florida.

Tony no doubt has called a number of stations to see who had cancelled and who has failed to pay for spots. Armed with that knwowlege he has hit on some Kerry campaign staffer who confirmed that assetts have been moved by Kerry to more productive states. Likely two things are true. The numbers in Florda were not moving for Kerry. They may be moving in other states. So they are moving more money to states where the Kerry message appears to be working.

The problem for Kerry is as he moves out of state after state he puts himself in a position where he must win nearly every state where he is still in contention while Bush only needs to win a couple of contested states

The way it appears to be going, Kerry is quickly reaching the point where he can't get their from here.

Kerry and his 527s have out spent Bush everywhere. But one thing that was clear from the Lousiana campaign in 2002. Spending on ads up to a point helps a campaign. Spending beyond that point on ads hurts a campaign.

It appears that Rove learned that lesson and Kerry did not. It looks to me like Kerry is spending 527 dough at a counter productive rate that may very well defeat him.