I would be stuned if he were to loose it.
Posted on 10/21/2004 12:56:33 PM PDT by 1stFreedom
Seems like Bush is ahead in national polls, but in the battleground States it looks like its very close -- with Kerry ahead for the most part.
Could it be a reversal of 2000? Sure, Rush is telling us that Kerry never lead, but is he referring to national polls?
I have this sneaky feeling that this election will be a repeat of the 2000 election -- with Kerry coming out on top of the EC vote.
For poll stats in the battleground States, see:
Bush HAS to win all these states...
Please opine...
Bush winning popular vote, but losing the electoral college is just pie in the sky dreaming of leftists, who still can't get over their 2000 loss.
Its sort of their mass orgasmatron to dream and promote this scenario, but its not going to happen.
Actually, it looks like Bush will win everywhere he won in 2000, as well as several states he lost in 2000.
In other words, Kerry will not even win the states that Gore won. This makes sense, since Kerry's appeal to women and blacks is significantly lower than Gore's was.
The Democrats also may not be able to supress the military overseas ballots this time around like they did last time, and they won't be able to stop people in the panhandle of Florida from voting like they did in 2000 by calling Florida for Gore while the polls were still open.
All in all, I think Bush is looking pretty solid. Of course, it also depends how much fraud the Democrats can get away with.
http://aceoftrumpblog.blogspot.com
Bush is holding firm in Florida and has pulled to .2 of Kerry in Ohio. He will pull ahead in Ohio, and it's goodnight Gracie for JK. Keep the faith, dude!
It seems that people here are going on faith while ignoring the fact that the [unreliable] polls paint a much different picture.
It's one thing to have faith in issues of religion, another to have them on tangible things like elections...
It seems that people here are going on faith while ignoring the fact that the [unreliable] polls paint a much different picture.
It's one thing to have faith in issues of religion, another to have them on tangible things like elections...
"Bush HAS to win all these states..."
What are you taking about? All Bush has to do is win Florida and
(Ohio or PA or Michigan or (Wisconson and Iowa)).
He is significantly ahead in the rest of the reds states. It doesn't matter even if he loses New Hampshire.
He will win Florida and Ohio so he will win election.
I think he will win Florida. The Florida economy is excellent and there is going to be a very high cuban american turnout because of the cuban Martinez (will become first hispanic senator). 80%+ of cubans in Florida vote Republican. 60%+ of hispanics are going to according to polls.
He will win Ohio. There will be a very conservative turnout becuase of the gay marriage ban amendment. It passed in Missouri with 71%.
He is already 5+ points ahead in NV, MO, and CO. He doesn't have to worry about these.
He
I would be stuned if he were to loose it.
Kind of courious why you posted such an obvious error? Bush only has to win 3 of 10, Kerry has to win 8 of 10. Guess I know which side of the equation I want to be on.
The Democrats also may not be able to supress the military overseas ballots this time around like they did last time,
They're already talking about throwing the military votes in Pa..... because of the two different ballots (ie- Nadar on/Nadar off the ballot). Anything they [rats] can do to STEAL the election!!!
Well I want Bush to win, but it seems like we are all toooo comfy. I mention the possibility that he could lose the EC vote, it seems like I'm painted as a heretic. LOL
It ain't over until the big beautiful woman (BBW) sings!
See the battle ground poll summaries...
RCP Battleground polls
Bush is a sitting duck right now, and is far from "sitting super pretty" in the EC.
Hmm which organization are you working for? DNC? Moveon? The Kerry Campaign? You have it EXACTLY backwards. You also miss that both Minnesota and Michigan, which are suppose to be "Safe" Kerry states have moved into the "toss up" category. Bush only has to win 3, Kerry has to win 8. You figure which side is a"sitting duck"
Real Clear Politics averages polls to make an aggregate score. One or a few flawed or suspect polls can skew the results. If you get into the internals and learn waht to look for, it becomes clear that certain polls are not trustworthy, and from what I see and believe, most of these skew toward Kerry, and these give the RCP a skew in that direction in key states, too.
Thanks for the reply -- there are only a few others which addressed my post.
The rest of the replies were simply evangelical in nature, not addressing the question but rather addressing the article of faith that Bush is going to win.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Kind of courious why you push a website run by a Democrat Convention delegate. One that shows MI and Florida in Kerry's column yet the polls show that, at best, Kerry is TIED in those states? Funny how certain Freepers always give the Pro-Kerry sites all this crediblity. Why is that?
>>Actually it seems people are ignoring polling data that DOESN'T reflect what they WANT and exaggerating data to claim it shows what something it doesn't.
Look I want Bush to win, so don't start with the "disinformation" claim.
I'm not saying RCP summaries and tables are infallible -- I'm just using them to bring the issue to light.
BTW, there has also been a shift of 7 electoral votes from "blue states" to "red states" on the basis of the 2000 census. Bush doesn't need New Hamster...and he may well pick up Iowa and Wisconsin this time.
Have you seen the latest Mason Dixon Polls form yesterday and today?....If i was sKerry i would be sweating bullets about now
Pardon me as I am not sure if you are implying that I am going on faith that Bush will win, or those implying he will lose the EC but win the popular vote are.
Numbers just aren't there for the lose the pop but win the EC for Kerry. It cannot happen. What the leftist fail to realize is that the smaller states carry more weight collectively than a few large states due to the electoral college... this is intentional and exactly why the electoral college was created.
For Kerry to try the lose the pop, but win the electoral he'd have to win a hell of a lot more states than he can, IMHO win. The strategy of the dems is to rely on the high number north east, some rust belt and west coast, because they frankly can't connect anywhere else.
The problem with this scenario is, as Gore learned in 2000, is it doesn't really work that well attempting to carrying only 22 states is a tough thing to do, because if just one state doesn't fall you are done. Its not reliable.
Polls are all over the map in this election, no doubt, but many of them just don't reflect reality under scrutiny. The trending is clearly toward Bush, EC trend is also heavily that way, and while it is true anything is possible in politics... the Dems have hit Bush with everything for 6 months and haven't been able to get on average above low to mid 40s on LV's.
Agreed politics, like sports, aint over till the buzzer, and with Dems on the other side not even then... but the idea of a Bush popular win, but a Kerry Electoral win is science fiction.
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