DISCUSSION
...JEANNE KEEPS ON TRUCKIN...
JEANNE continues to head westward at a good speed for the tropics. Landfall, however, will be a couple hours later than anticipated with the main forecast package issued at 5 PM..
From sundown tonight to sundown tomorrow is Yom Kipper. Jewish people may not be listening to radio and TV. Please try and keep them aware of the progress of JEANNE.
Models have JEANNE running along the coast either as a hurricane or a strong tropical storm all the way from landfall near Vero Beach up to Kitty Hawk, NC. Prepare accordingly!
Note that the path of JEANNE is such that even though the landfall is in northern Florida, on the forecast track the effects of the storm's severity will be felt from Ft. Lauderdale, FL, to Virginia Beach, VA.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches along and to the right of the track of JEANNE may be expected which can result in life-threatening flash floods.
Again, JEANNE will likely be a category III at landfall.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE, INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE, AND FOR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS, INCLUDING THE ABACOS, ANDROS ISLAND, BERRY ISLANDS, BIMIMI, ELEUTHERA, GRAND BAHAMA, AND NEW PROVIDENCE.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ST. AUGUSTINE, FL, TO ALTAMAHA SOUND, GA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, INCLUDING CAT ISLAND, THE EXUMAS, LONG ISLAND, RUM CAY, AND SAN SALVADOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO ANCLOTE KEY, INCLUDING THE FLORIDA BAY AND THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 8 PM ET/AT (0000Z)
Location: 26.5N by 74.3W, or 170 miles E of Great Abaco Island and 355 miles E of the SE Florida coast.
Vector: W at 12 MPH. This motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
Winds: 100 MPH 1-minute sustained. Some slow strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 965 MB or 28.50"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: 90 miles.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 300 miles.
Anticipated Landfall Time: 1 AM, Sunday, September 26, 2004.
Anticipated Landfall Location: On barrier island SSE of Vero Beach, FL.
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
NEXRAD IMAGERY
[No part of JEANNE is within 124 nautical miles of any CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD location.]
SLOSH DATA
Bahamas--Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 feet above normal tide levels along the north side of Grand Bahama Island and the west side of the Abacos. Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide level may be expected along the west side of other Bahamian islands in hurricane warning area.
Florida--Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels may be expected near and to the right of the center when JEANNE crossed the coast.
[SLOSH data have not yet been calculated for JEANNE.]
TOD DATA
Due to the trajectory of JEANNE as it crosses the coast, the notion of a "triangle" of destruction fails on this storm. Hurricane force winds are likely within the area described by joining the following points:
Start--Boca Raton, FL
To--Basinger, FL (somewhat NNW of L. Okeechobee)
Then--following a line parallel to the coast but 60 miles inland
To--the border of GA/SC
Then--to the Atlantic coast
And--return to origin of the polygon
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
INTEREST WATCH AREA
Interests in the Bahamas, and along the United States Atlantic littoral from Florida to Massachusetts should monitor the progress of JEANNE.