[StillProud2BeFree]

I'm skeptical of EOM too, although some of the information they post seems to be gleamed from jihadi boards. My gut is that EOM is a hoaxter although I'll admit some of their postings have been chilling.

One problem with attempting to predict when something will happen is it doesn't take into consideration those things that can stop a planned event dead in its tracks. These can include (some of you have, have already raised, or were recently teenagers and will understand completely my examples!):

1. Increased security. Have you ever thought about sneaking out when you were a teenager? What if mom and dad caught you coming back in through a window. The next morning they make it known to you that the security system had been upgraded and the windows wired to set off an alarm. Result - you don't try to sneak out again. In other words, if you increase security visibly, the risk of getting caught can be so high that it isn't worth the risk.

2. Confiscation of supplies. Let's say you're 17, and mom and dad are gone for the weekend. You're at grandmas, but decide to have a party at home on Friday night. Grandma goes over to feed the dog, finds your stash of booze and other party stuff and confiscates it. Grandma knows about the party, the party supplies are gone, end of party.

3. Information. A few years ago I had the distinct feeling that my oldest child was up to no good in the afternoon before I got home from work. So I made it known that I was suspicious, and that I was then on flex time, and could pop in at home at any point. I came home unexpectedly several times, completely randomly. Never caught anything going on but I think that just knowing that I might come home may have helped keep the kids in line.

4. Visibility. Let's say you're going to toilet paper the trees in the football coach's front yard cause the team won the big game. The chief of police suspects this and plants a police car right in front of the house next door to the mayor. There's a REALLY good chance that you're going to decide to NOT TP the yard that night, right?

OK I agree with the assessment that Saudi Arabia is at VERY high risk, and probably in imminent danger of a coup. So does virtually every other analyst who is familiar with the middle east. No one can pinpoint a time or day. But sometimes there are signs indicating something might happen. When those signs are recognized, and it is made known that they have been recognized, it can cause the bad guys to put off their plans.

I can and do read the Arabic language articles put out by Al Qaeda and there has been a profound change in the tenor of their propaganda. It's no longer exclusively rhetoric and exhortations to violence, although that's in there now too. It has started to take on the tone of press releases. Parts of it sound no more inflammatory than the letters you get from your Congressman. Lots of it is a lot less inflammatory that the campaign stuff you see on TV now. It has taken on the tone of a "done deal".

In other words, they are ramping up for the next phase, when they are operating a government. And folks, there may be problems in Saudi Arabia, but don't think for a second things would be any better under an Al Qaeda led government. Remember Afghanistan and the Taliban? They made the House of Saud look positively liberal!

If you guys want me to, I'll post my analysis of what is going on in Saudi Arabia and the House of Saud, for what it's worth.

But before you discount the possibility of a coup in Saudi Arabia, I suggest you read the following articles:

http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,8380848%255E1702,00.html

Terror arrests, explosives seized
From correspondents in Riyadh
January 13, 2004

SAUDI Arabia has found about 300 explosives belts and nearly 24 tonnes of explosive materials and seized an unspecified number of people in its hunt for terror suspects, the interior ministry said today.


http://www.menewsline.com/stories/2004/january/01_13_3.html
SAUDIS ACKNOWLEDGE AL QAIDA INFILTRATION


ABU DHABI [MENL] -- Saudi Arabia has quietly acknowledged that its security forces and military have been infiltrated by Al Qaida.

Saudi security sources said Al Qaida has succeeded in obtaining military equipment and uniforms for suicide operations in the kingdom. The sources said the insurgency group has also obtained either vehicles from the National Guard or its insignia, which can be imposed on non-official trucks and deceive soldiers at checkpoints.

Al Qaida's use of military and security equipment allowed insurgents to attack the Muhaya compound in Riyad on Nov. 9. The security sources said a foiled Al Qaida attack meant to take place later that month included the use of a forged military vehicle.

The sources said Al Qaida has a range of sources for military equipment. They said several tailors around Riyad who service the military and National Guard routinely sell uniforms without asking clients for identification.

[GOPJ]

Please add me to your Saudi analysis ping list.

If you guys want me to, I'll post my analysis of what is going on in Saudi Arabia and the House of Saud, for what it's worth.

[Letitring]

I think you are dead on, about the House of Saud, and probably a few more. I also think they'll 'deal' with us, first.

I've been trying to find encouraging words for US, in alot of different sectors, and so far it looks real grim, for the home team.

[Sean Osborne Lomax]

Post away, post away, or contact Doug and become an independent researcher associated with the Northeast Intelligence Network. Your knowledge and insights are top-tier. Actually you could be working for the CIA, but then again, why waste talent? ;)

[Labyrinthos]

Re Post No. 9652

Thanks for your post. I concur in many respects. My problem is not with the threats because I believe they are very real. My problem has to do with the way certain posters hang on EOM's every word as if he has some magical mystical insight and powers. How deos one conclude, for example, that AQ will attempt to overthrow the House of Saud on Saturday 01.10.04, simply because EOM says he'll be off-line for the proceeding 48 to 72 hours?

I will predict right now that AQ will attempt to overthrow the House of Saud and orchestrate another attack on our shores in the very near future, and someday, I'll be right. But that doesn't mean that I'm a member of AQ or a wannabee or that I hang out with our spooks, or that I have any kind of insight to the situation other than common sense.

[swarthyguy]

Well, here's one who's wishing strongly for mayhem, chaos, coups, civil war and general anarchy in the Tragic Kingdom.

May the beast they have fed turn on them.

As for us, it would be appropos considering how the White House and protected, shilled and covered up the Saudi finance and support, not to mention the jihadis for the Attacks on America.

Down with the House of Saud!!

Viva Osama!

[Oorang]

OK I agree with the assessment that Saudi Arabia is at VERY high risk, and probably in imminent danger of a coup.

Thanks for your insight. I have never been to Saudi Arabia so your knowledge of the politics and culture is way ahead of mine. It is my understanding that there are a couple of thousand Saudi princes and they control all aspects of the government and military. Is the dissension within the Saudi military large enough to allow a coup? Do you believe that a coup in S.A. is more likely than a coup within Pakistan? It seems that Al-Queda and other fundamentalist muslims are thick in Pakistan. It also seems that there are many more frontier/lawless areas of Pakistan, but, again, I defer to your expertise. What do you think the ramifications of a Saudi coup would be for America?

My apologies for this sounding like a Q & A. You just seem to have a good handle on that neck of the woods and I do appreciate your insight.

[happy_happy_joy_joy]

You mentioned the following:

"OK I agree with the assessment that Saudi Arabia is at VERY high risk, and probably in imminent danger of a coup."
___________________________________________________________


Possible coups taking place in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan really scare me. It bothers me more than the current terrorist threats to our country. If AQ were to be successful in these attempts, it would give them so much power. I am afraid to think what they would do. Look at how they are so eager to carry out "homicide" bombing attacks and other attacks like 9/11. These people are true fanatics. It definitely will not be easy to stop them. And, if so, it will only be temporary. Their "sick" ideology will carry on to the next generation. It is sad, but it is true.

Lord help us.