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To: StillProud2BeFree
Thanks..what's really funny about this is that the jihadi bosses don't seem to grasp the 'real' reason for their plans not coming together..

They think that someone blabbed. What they probably can't even BEGIN to grasp is the technological and intelligence assets that we have trained directly on them at this point. We have toys they can't even dream of that are helping us WIN the WOT.

Prior to 9/11, these things weren't pointed at the crazies, but I have every reason to believe that there are MANY assets watching their every move, their every thought, and their every communication, 24x7.

The game has changed, post 9/11. It's now just a bunch of angry, obsessed KIDS (most of them are) that are undereducated, over-zealous and AMATEURS against the technological capabilities of the most powerful nation on the planet.

The jihadis are toast. They will be picked off, one by one - until they simply are no more. Many will simply 'disappear'. They will be the lucky ones.
10,499 posted on 01/15/2004 9:26:19 AM PST by jstolzen
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To: jstolzen
I hope you're right. I think that they are having some organization problems. They could be signs of imminent collapse or they could be growing pains. I don't have enough info to know.

Al Qaeda Inc. has changed. Three years ago Al Qaeda was a huge centralized organization with a corporate headquarters in Afghanistan and it's CEO, CFO, and most of its Board of Directors there.

After 9/11, the US demolished the corporate headquarters in Afghanistan, removed (either by death or capture) as many of the corporate offices as it could locate, and then proceeded to close down branch offices all over the world. The problem is - new branches spring up as fast as one closes.

What's happened now is that Al Qaeda is now a very decentralized organization. I want to use the term "franchise" but that's not quite right either because to affiliate with Al Qaeda you pretty much just ahve to declare yourself a Moslem sworn to jihad, and then start out on your own.

There appear to be several different types of "projects", if you will. Those which were loosely defined and approved from the top, many of which may have been set into motion some time ago (months ago to probably pre-911), and those projects that are just being dreamed up on the fly by freelancers who I like to call Jihadi wannabes. Copycats, if you wish. These latter screw up a lot and get caught a lot. But when they get caught they don't take anyone else in the organizational structure with them. These aren't even cells - they are stand alone groups who just borrow the name. They aren't very likely to have the smarts to pull off a mass casualty event.They don't have the funding, for starters.

Eventually the war on terror will get a handle on the former - the ones that came down from the top. But mroe than likely another group will spring up in its place.

It's the little home grown ones that aren't going to go away.

The problem is the institutionalization of hatred. It isn't going to go away. It doesn't evaporate. Capturing Bin Laden isn't going to make everyone love America.

I know I keep harping on this but in my opinion any war on terror that does not address this is not going to succeed long term.

I may be wrong - and I would welcome other opinions on the subject.
10,508 posted on 01/15/2004 9:45:05 AM PST by StillProud2BeFree
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To: jstolzen
We have toys they can't even dream of that are helping us WIN the WOT.... there are MANY assets watching their every move, their every thought, and their every communication, 24x7.

There are plenty of offensive tools in the arsenal for cyber counterwarfare. Plenty.

I have to laugh at these jihadis who believe - quite wrongly - that the Internet affords them any anonymity whatsoever. It doesn't. Look at Aaron Weisburd at Internet Haganah, who with only a rudimentary arsenal has helped to put hundreds of jihadi web sites out of business.

Likewise, this EOM and his silly proxy is by no stretch immune from tracking. Any entity seriously interested in his identity and location could discover that info in a single evening session by watching his posts and source IPs. I assure you the USG has the capability to obtain ISP logs in a timely manner (hmmm, EOM thinks his ISP logs are "safe", haha). Which means EOM can be (and probably has been) busted. He's either an acceptable threat or none whatsoever.

I like to remind folks that the Dan Pearl murderers sent email ransom notes to several newspapers, and that they were then apprehended in less than a week in Karachi. Guess they didn't realize that those emails included the IP address of the Internet cafe they were using, and that the very long reach of the USG could go right to their front door.

These sick little jihadis with their monumental egos and incomplete logical faculties are seriously mistaken to believe they can outwit us. It's true we didn't pay attention pre-9/11, and it's also true that Clinton/Reno seriously hobbled cyber-intelligence efforts. But its a different world now, and the jihadis are under the microscope in a world where they are pathetic amateurs (shhh, don't tell them that). The Internet is the world's best tool for compromising their communications, because they believe it's safe, and they think they're real smart.

What a ridiculous joke they are, bringing another yet heaping pile of "humiliation" to the Muslims.

10,558 posted on 01/15/2004 11:54:10 AM PST by angkor
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