Putin’s Air Offensive SHOCKS Trump, Ukraine Won’t Survive w/ Alexander Mercouris

No credible source produces the 40-45% by UKR, 55-60% by Rus

I found no reports from OHCHR, Amnesty, or other leading monitoring bodies that claims 40-45 % of civilian deaths were caused by Ukrainian forces, and 55-60 % by Russian forces, with that level of precision.

Some of OHCHR’s older summary reports for the Donetsk/Luhansk region (before 2022) attribute “roughly 40-50 %” of civilian deaths in that region to Ukrainian forces—but that is not a general claim for all of Ukraine, and it is not a clean figure for “indiscriminate shelling.”

Even where OHCHR attributes a share to Ukrainian forces, it often is for conflict-related deaths broadly (shelling, crossfire, etc.), not necessarily only “indiscriminate attacks.”

Those attributions tend to come with caveats and are not claimed to be precise or final.

The Amnesty International report does NOT claim that Ukraine is responsible for 40-50 % of all civilian deaths.

Pete Dovgan: "They probably have thousands of Tomahawks in the inventory."

The publicly available numbers say:

7,000 Tomahawks produced since the 1980s
3,000 consumed over ~40 years (i.e., Gulf War, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen & Iran, plus training)
4,000 remaining in US inventories
~35 per year, current production rate
$3 million, per unit cost.

What makes the latest Tomahawk versions so expensive is:

They are highly stealthy
Sophisticated guidance, capable of hitting moving targets.
Limited production quantities, not mass production

I've seen reports of increased production, but how much?
Even doubling production to, say, 70 per year would only add about ten more minutes' worth of firepower in any serious battle, such as over Taiwan.

So, when Pres. Trump talks about sending 2,000 Tomahawks to Ukraine, that's half our inventory, if the public numbers can be believed.

Ukrainian Flamingos, by contrast, are said to cost only $500,000 and are being produced at a rate of over 200 per month.
Flamingos have a longer range, higher speed and larger payload than Tomahawks, but are not as stealthy nor as sophisticated in their guidance.
Whether they can hit moving targets is unknown.

Pete Dovgan: "I have heard for years how we don’t have fighters (but they have built some 5-9k F-16’s), no tanks (5-8k of Abrams) and no old inventory 9-10k of M60’s (upgraded), and no armored PC-yet 6-8k bradleys in storage.
The stuff in storage would support most militaries for many years."

Most everything "in storage" is mothballed, meaning preserved for future restoration and upgrades.
Those would take huge dollars & time, and may or may not be as expensive as building new vehicles from scratch.

Russians have restored & consumed many thousands of their old tanks and BMPs in storage, with no appreciable battlefield effects -- they are wasted efforts and death-traps for Russian soldiers.

Bottom line: the US #1 problem is not a lack of inventories, but rather an atrophied Military Industrial Base, even over the past 40 years (since Pres. Reagan won the Cold War) much less since our peak during the Second World War 80 years ago.
Restoring our defense industrial capacities has to be the US #1 priority today.

Pete Dovgan: "They have probably thousands of Tomahawks at sea right now, in various ships, and more probably sitting in cans for storage."

Public numbers say there are circa 4,000 Tomahawks in total.
How many are at sea at any given time depends on expected threats and mission sets.
If a typical Arleigh Burk destroyer carries around 100 missiles in total, then maybe a dozen of those are Tomahawks.
The rest are for defense against threats from the air, space, sea and undersea.

Pete Dovgan: " I am aware of the Flamingo, supposedly building 24 a months+, but i doubt they will have ‘thousands’ by 2026."

To be of much value, Ukraine will need hundreds, not just dozens, per month, and that's what I understand they are aiming for and expect to produce.
Articles here and here.

I have been told that they will have “Flamingo” factory (s) outside of Ukraine.
I still doubt thousands by 2026. They may be building hundreds a months soon though.

4000 Tomahawks…… I am going to go with not true. The ones that have been used in the past were replaced ( at least that’s what executives at Raytheon told me) and at 3 million + replacement, they are probably cheering Ukraine getting them. I suspect there are 2-3x that many, but could be more than that. They have used up some of the old ones, but they get replaced with newer models.

Aircraft in storage. They always say that those being stored have parts missing and need updating. Yes, there is some of that. There are many stored battle and flight ready. I have seen them take 1000+ fighters ( with engines and cockpits covered sitting in dirt) in the Arizona desert, and fly every one of them out in one night. You can’t do that with aircraft that aren’t maintained and updated. The numbers, three years ago released on the website made sense, now suddenly many many decommissioned aircraft (because of f-35 production) aren’t showing up. Where are they? Most counties aren’t buying F-16’s because the F-35 ‘package’ is more economical over 25 years.

I am beginning to wonder if Ukraine has more airframes than pilots. I am also wondering how powerful Ukraine’s military is becoming, and if it’s going to be a long term problem. Sometimes released government numbers don’t ring true, and 4000k Tomahawk is one of those numbers as well as the storage numbers for fighters. Hopefully, economic sanctions get Russia, and the threat of no US support gets Ukraine, to the peace table. Ukraine as a ‘backwater’ seemed safer to everyone, and I truly believe that Russia main threat is in the Southeast and unrecognized as such by the Kremlin.

"PJ-Comix “2022. They had a peace deal worked out and then Boris Johnson told Ukraine to nix the deal because NATO would supply them with all the weapons they need”

That is a misleading narrative at best."

No it isn't. That is the exact same stunt the British pulled with Poland to start WW2 in Europe, the exact same page of their basic play book.

Ganeemead. You are correct when you compare Putin’s Muscowy to Hitler’s Nazi Germany, but everything else is provably wrong.

Firstly there was no peace deal offered by Nazi Germany to Poland, rather a deal of submission, assimilation and national suicide. Putin offered Ukraine the same deal.

Secondly the British in 1939 offered an alliance ie to attack Germany if they attacked Poland.

Boris did not offer this to Ukraine.

Pete Dovgan: "I have been told that they will have “Flamingo” factory (s) outside of Ukraine.
I still doubt thousands by 2026.
They may be building hundreds a months soon though."

Your guess is as good as mine on this, since all I know is what I can read online about it.
What I'm not seeing are reports on large numbers of Ukrainian Flamingos being used against Russian military & infrastructure targets.
It suggests to me that:

Flamingos may not be as ready for deployment as was hoped.
Flamingos are being stockpiled to be unleashed at some future appropriate time.

Pete Dovgan: "4000 Tomahawks…… I am going to go with not true. "

I have no special knowledge, only sources like this one and this one.

All of these numbers come from Raytheon, and if you have special knowledge directly from them, you may want to make certain it's public information and not classified for security reasons.

I do notice now that the number 4,000 Tomahawks in US inventories has been removed from the Wikipedia page, but the numbers consumed are still nearly 3,000 and production is shown as dozens per year, not the hundreds, or even thousands, per year that would be required in a major conflagration such as around Taiwan.

Pete Dovgan: "I suspect there are 2-3x that many, but could be more than that.
They have used up some of the old ones, but they get replaced with newer models."

Again, reported production numbers are in the dozens per year, not the hundreds or thousands that would be needed for a major conflict.

Pete Dovgan: "I have seen them take 1000+ fighters ( with engines and cockpits covered sitting in dirt) in the Arizona desert, and fly every one of them out in one night.
You can’t do that with aircraft that aren’t maintained and updated. "

Yes, Type 1000 aircraft, like Type 3000s, are maintained in ready-to-fly condition at AMARG (boneyard) near Tucson, Arizona.
But their numbers are relatively small compared to the many thousands of boneyard aircraft there to be scavenged for parts.

Pete Dovgan: "I am also wondering how powerful Ukraine’s military is becoming, and if it’s going to be a long term problem."

Yes, Ukraine's military certainly needs to be strong enough to deter Russian aggression -- so how strong is that?
Of course, it's a problem for Ukraine to maintain such a powerful force, so they will need Western support for as long as Russians threaten Ukraine.

Pete Dovgan: "Sometimes released government numbers don’t ring true, and 4000k Tomahawk is one of those numbers as well as the storage numbers for fighters."

No doubt the reported 4,000 Tomahawks in inventory number is out of date, but there are no more recent public numbers, while production numbers are still listed as dozens per year -- not the hundreds or thousands that would be needed in a major conflict.

My main point here is that the US biggest problem is not a shortage of weapons' inventories -- those are just the symptoms, not the problem.
The problem is the atrophied US Military Industrial Base, down now 50% just since the 1980s and over 90% since the end of World War Two, in 1945.
So, specific numbers are not as important as the question: how fast can we build what will be required to deter (peace through strength), or fight, the next major conflict?

Pete Dovgan: " Ukraine as a ‘backwater’ seemed safer to everyone, and I truly believe that Russia main threat is in the Southeast and unrecognized as such by the Kremlin."

Ukraine was never a "backwater" in the eyes of Ukrainians, it's their heartland and home.
For 800 years Ukrainians have fought for their independence & sovereignty against Mongols, Lithuanians, Poles, Turks and Russians.
They won't quit now.

As for Russians, in January 2022 they announced an "unlimited partnership" with CCP China, today's equivalent to Stalin's 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact carving up Poland and the Baltics.
Their 2022 "Unlimited Partnership" allowed Russians to invade Ukraine with Chinese support and China continues to support them today -- though at a price, and likely an ever increasing price.

So, will Russians balk at paying China's high prices, or will China demand payment in the form of... oh, maybe Eastern Russian territories ?

Stay tuned...
Sino-Soviet War, 1964 - 1969:

No it isn't. That is the exact same stunt the British pulled with Poland to start WW2 in Europe, the exact same page of their basic play book.

So you're now claiming that Britain started World War II in Europe?

I guess this is the warmonger in question then....

LOL!

“My main point here is that the US biggest problem is not a shortage of weapons’ inventories — those are just the symptoms, not the problem.
The problem is the atrophied US Military Industrial Base, down now 50% just since the 1980s and over 90% since the end of World War Two, in 1945.
So, specific numbers are not as important as the question: how fast can we build what will be required to deter (peace through strength), or fight, the next major conflict?”

I agree, production is way down. We are only seeing specific weapons, like missiles and F-35’s but there are so many that production is ridiculously low or absent. Look towards artillery and standard explosives, ships, and we 100% agree.