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How a Russia vs. NATO War Could Actually Start
National Security Journal ^ | 9/27/2025 | Reuben F. Johnson

Posted on 09/27/2025 8:26:42 AM PDT by whyilovetexas111

Russian drones crossing into Poland and MiG-31s violating Estonian airspace revived the core question: how does a Russia vs. NATO war actually begin? Moscow will keep probing seams—airspace, air defenses, political will—aiming to force NATO into an Article 4/5 dilemma. Europe’s fragmented defense industry, ammunition shortages, and uneven appetite for risk create openings for a rapid, deniable “fait accompli” in the Baltics using EW, drones, and covert forces. That scenario wouldn’t resemble a set-piece tank battle; it would be a shock campaign designed to split allies before they can mobilize.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalsecurityjournal.org ...


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I feel like a lot of the media is forgetting about this war and how it could truly spark WWIII.
1 posted on 09/27/2025 8:26:42 AM PDT by whyilovetexas111
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To: whyilovetexas111
Russian drones crossing into Poland

Russian decoy drones crossing into Poland is a Ukrainian false flag.

2 posted on 09/27/2025 8:30:37 AM PDT by kiryandil (No one in AZ that voted for Trump voted for Gallego )
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To: whyilovetexas111

They seem to think any war with Russia will be fought exclusively in Europe. We’ve been supplying Ukraine with M142 HIMARS to strike strategic targets deep inside Russia, why wouldn’t Russia eventually start to attack strategic targets on American soil?


3 posted on 09/27/2025 8:35:47 AM PDT by jimwatx
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To: whyilovetexas111

Russia has its hands full right now with Ukraine. Why in the world would they want to drag NATO into it? Possibilities:

1. Putin has gone crazy.
2. It’s a bluff to get everyone to step back a bit.
3. The Russian drones accidentally went off-course.
4. The Russian drones aren’t Russian at all ((false flag).

I suppose there are other possibilities as well.


4 posted on 09/27/2025 8:36:23 AM PDT by Leaning Right (It's morning in America. Again.)
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To: whyilovetexas111

No civilized person wants war.


5 posted on 09/27/2025 8:38:27 AM PDT by rrrod (6)
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To: kiryandil
“Russian decoy drones crossing into Poland is a Ukrainian false flag.”

Yup.
Zellensky will commit every crime in the book to try and lure America into their stupid war.
NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!

6 posted on 09/27/2025 8:38:40 AM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: rrrod

The Europeans do.
Especially if America is paying for it.


7 posted on 09/27/2025 8:39:49 AM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: whyilovetexas111

The biggest factor is the strong majority of Americans dont want to go to war with Russian to save Eurofags who hate us.


8 posted on 09/27/2025 8:40:27 AM PDT by Wilderness Conservative (Nature is the ultimate conservative)
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To: Wilderness Conservative

Since when have the neocons cared about American public opinion before bringing us into war? They’ll just pop off a ff and say Russia has attacked a NATO country and we are obligated under article 5 to protect them.


9 posted on 09/27/2025 8:45:19 AM PDT by jimwatx
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To: kiryandil; All

Reports citing good intel sources indicate the drones were decoys, no warheads, essentially plywood and foam some taped together, with Polish and Swedish sim cards. So “ repurposed” Russian decoys prob retrieved in Ukraine .

The damage photo Poland took to the UNSC was a house roof hit by a failed Polish or NATO F-16 AAM

The airspace” violation crossed “ no Estonian territory, MiGs flew along or close to ADIZ in Gulf of Finland and about 3 Km off a small rocky island claimed by Estonia, while transiting from Karelia to Kaliningrad.

Yet this is all cited belligerently as Russian aggression or provocation deserving of a full NATO response


10 posted on 09/27/2025 8:50:36 AM PDT by silverleaf (“Inside Every Progressive Is A Totalitarian Screaming To Get Out” —David Horowitz)
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To: whyilovetexas111

“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?“

Nope. Gotta pump the blog.


11 posted on 09/27/2025 8:54:10 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: silverleaf

You do realize by your comment that you don’t have a clue about what you’re talking about.


12 posted on 09/27/2025 8:55:11 AM PDT by oldbill
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To: whyilovetexas111

” it would be a shock campaign designed to split allies before they can mobilize.”

The Russians pulling off a Nazi style Blitzkrieg. This is laughable. Russian forces are quite depleted trying to figure out how to conquer Ukraine. To think they could pull off a massive sneak attack on unsuspecting western Euro countries is just DUMB!

This article is fear mongering bullshit.


13 posted on 09/27/2025 8:58:49 AM PDT by redfreedom (They’re AWFUL...Affuent White Female Urban Leftists)
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To: SmokingJoe

“NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!”
******************************

I wouldn’t count on that especially after what Trump has said in the last few days. Hopefully Trump is just using the threat of continued war as a negotiating tactic but I’m not so sure any more. Trump has surrounded himself with neocon advisors like Rubio and Waltz who no doubt are pushing for war. All it would take is a spark to set things off and I’m sure our CIA is already working on that now.


14 posted on 09/27/2025 9:00:04 AM PDT by jimwatx
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To: whyilovetexas111

The real enemy is in London and Brussels.


15 posted on 09/27/2025 9:03:28 AM PDT by PGR88
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To: whyilovetexas111

Just read Red Storm Rising. Problem is, Putins navy has been decimated with sinkings and ship decommissioning. They don’t even have a blue water navy anymore. When was the last time a Russian naval vessel seen in a foreign port?


16 posted on 09/27/2025 9:07:58 AM PDT by DownInFlames (P)
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To: kiryandil

>Russian decoy drones crossing into Poland is a Ukrainian false flag.

Yeah, where are they coming from? Crimea? All the way across in Eastern Ukraine? Belarus?


17 posted on 09/27/2025 9:09:37 AM PDT by struggle
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To: kiryandil; jimwatx; Leaning Right; rrrod; Wilderness Conservative; redfreedom; PGR88; ...
--- "Gotta pump the blog." --- Vermont Lt

Yup. Ever notice how comments addressed / pinged to whyilovetexas111 are almost NEVER answered?

See: Posts by whyilovetexas111

Flogging the blog is his (or her) MO. Responding to comments by other Freepers? Hardly ever, and never with any content. "Screw 'em."

18 posted on 09/27/2025 9:17:21 AM PDT by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
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To: Wilderness Conservative

The biggest factor is the strong majority of Americans dont want to go to war with Russian to save Eurofags who hate us.
——————
Strange, the EU with a population of 500 plus million, is dragging the US with a population of 330 million into a war with Russia which only has a population of 180 million.

Enter China, 1.5 billion, which can see after Russia, they will be next up on the NeoCons chopping block ( not going to happen)….the West is going “ one bridge to far”.


19 posted on 09/27/2025 9:22:44 AM PDT by delta7
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To: jimwatx

Russian paratroopers could be landing in Trafalgar Square and on the Eiffel Tower and most of us would still not want to get involved. Otherwise let me know when they are gathering along the Rio Grande.


20 posted on 09/27/2025 9:27:07 AM PDT by Wilderness Conservative (Nature is the ultimate conservative)
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