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What If Japan Hadn’t Surrendered in WWII? A Look at the Horrifying ‘Operation Downfall’
National Security Journal ^ | 8/6/2025 | Robert Farley

Posted on 08/06/2025 8:24:29 AM PDT by whyilovetexas111

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To: whyilovetexas111

Dad was in the Philippines with the SeaBees, building a huge armor and motor repair depot for the expected invasion of Japan. He was literally on his way to Okinawa with his unit to do something similar, when the war ended.


21 posted on 08/06/2025 8:46:56 AM PDT by PGR88
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To: Magnum44

Yes, that’s obvious!
But, paradoxically, even Japanese are a lot better off. They should thank us for the bombs!


22 posted on 08/06/2025 8:48:34 AM PDT by AZJeep (sane )
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To: dfwgator

Soviets had no chance. They had no sealift capacity. You need ships. Big ones configured for sealift. This is still true today. Airlift will not bring in enough heavy gear, supplies, etc.


23 posted on 08/06/2025 8:48:58 AM PDT by Seruzawa ("The Political left is the Garden of Eden of incompetence" - Marx the Smarter (Groucho))
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To: Tell It Right

It took the Emperor to order surrender. Even then some of the Imperial Army tried to stage a coup.


24 posted on 08/06/2025 8:51:33 AM PDT by Seruzawa ("The Political left is the Garden of Eden of incompetence" - Marx the Smarter (Groucho))
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To: whyilovetexas111

Correct. And Japanese historians such as Asada have confirmed we were WAY WAY LOW in our estimates of casualties, as they had moved an entirely new division into the southern island alone.


25 posted on 08/06/2025 8:54:15 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." Jimi Hendrix)
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To: Georgia Girl 2

My father was on a minesweeper that was going to be sweeping mines out of Tokyo harbor. He said that, had the bombs not been dropped, he would not have made it back alive.


26 posted on 08/06/2025 8:55:33 AM PDT by CletusVanDamme (You always said you'd take real good care of me, didn't you George. Here's one rap you won't beat.)
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To: AZJeep

You’re right.

Nagasaki and Hiroshima are thriving cities today.


27 posted on 08/06/2025 8:58:38 AM PDT by laplata (They want each crisis to take the greatest toll possible.)
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To: laplata

My Dad was serving on an escort carrier in the Pacific at the end of the war. Prime target for kamikazes.


28 posted on 08/06/2025 8:59:46 AM PDT by glorgau
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To: Seruzawa

You’re right.


29 posted on 08/06/2025 9:00:49 AM PDT by laplata (They want each crisis to take the greatest toll possible.)
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To: whyilovetexas111
Here is a good YouTube video giving informed speculation by historians on what would have happened if Truman chickened out and didn't drop the bombs:

Operation Downfall: What If The US NEVER Dropped The Atomic Bomb & Invaded Japan? | History Undone

Summary: The A-bombs saved lives not just in the Allied countries, not just Japan, but in many asian countries that were Japanese occupied and starving. Literal cannibalism was starting to break out.

Maybe the Russians would have made out better - that's about it.

30 posted on 08/06/2025 9:02:52 AM PDT by Yossarian
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To: glorgau

My Dad was serving on an escort carrier in the Pacific at the end of the war. Prime target for kamikazes.

><

That’s right. And they had more kamikazes ready for that than they had used before.


31 posted on 08/06/2025 9:03:23 AM PDT by laplata (They want each crisis to take the greatest toll possible.)
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To: glorgau

One of the first things Gen. MacArther ordered after the Japanese surrender is that all propellers be removed from all the Japanese planes.


32 posted on 08/06/2025 9:05:03 AM PDT by laplata (They want each crisis to take the greatest toll possible.)
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To: Tell It Right

Well, you have to consider that they probably didn’t believe initial reports, and found even secondary confirmations to be a bit fantastic. When the reality of Hiroshima is finally hitting home, Nagasaki is hit.

Beyond the shock of those, not knowing how many more would come, or where?

It was a very good thing they did not know that there was only one remaining core available, and no more after that for quite some time.


33 posted on 08/06/2025 9:13:19 AM PDT by larrytown (A Cadet will not lie, cheat, steal, or tolerate those who do. Then they graduate...)
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To: dfwgator
What if the Soviets beat us to Tokyo?

Do you know what Soviet sea-lift capability was in late 1945? Practically nil. They could not have gotten there without our help.
34 posted on 08/06/2025 9:13:59 AM PDT by Antoninus (Republicans are all honorable men.)
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To: MinorityRepublican

“No bomb. We’ll agree to a ceasefire with Japan. They’ll withdraw from some territories but otherwise they would have their empire somewhat intact. “

And that would have satisfied who??

Not China, not Korea, not Russia, not any part of Indo-China Japan was allowed to keep, not Taiwan, and likely not the Philippines.

Your “solution” would have merely set up East Asia for another Asia-wide war.


35 posted on 08/06/2025 9:14:13 AM PDT by Wuli (uire)
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To: irishjuggler

My Dad was a non-combatant (ordnance supply and maintenance) in New Guinea and the Philippines. Even so, he might not have survived an invasion of Japan.


36 posted on 08/06/2025 9:15:57 AM PDT by NorthernDancer (“There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.”)
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To: laplata

The soviets just crushed the japs in manchuria and then invaded and occupied the kuril islands and sakhalin island. They would have invaded hokkaido , the northern island of japan , but Truman threatened to use A-bomb on russkies if they did. I think between our unrestricted submarine warfare against japan, firebombing of population centers and the soviet attacks, we could have waited until the buzzards stopped cleaning up the dead and occupied a largely empty , and very quiet japan.


37 posted on 08/06/2025 9:18:20 AM PDT by ozarker
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To: Yossarian

Maybe the Russians would have made out better - that’s about it.
______________________

You know, that’s right!
That’s probably why there has been such an outrage in the media.
The media were in cahoots with Stalin, and are still enamored in communism, so they still spread the communist propaganda about the bomb horrors.


38 posted on 08/06/2025 9:19:12 AM PDT by AZJeep (sane )
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To: ozarker

You’re right. Good post.


39 posted on 08/06/2025 9:21:40 AM PDT by laplata (They want each crisis to take the greatest toll possible.)
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To: Tell It Right

War was hell for civilians in Asia in WWII. It was hell for civilians for what the Japanese did in China, what they were always doing in Korea, what they did in Southeast Asia. It was hell for civilians in Japan before the atomic bombs were dropped, with the allied fire bombing. The civilians casualties of the U.S. fire bombing of Tokyo exceeded the casualties of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. War is hell, not just for the soldiers, but for civilians as well.


40 posted on 08/06/2025 9:22:13 AM PDT by Wuli (uire)
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