Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla
I see they’re getting ready for the next control the world pandemic.
Democrats know how to trigger their crazies... mix that with AI 'insights' into how to manipulate humans and we could have a mess. A psychopath is a person missing the pain that goes with a conscience. AI is NOT capable of 'feeling pain'. It's a recipe for creating a psychopath to end all psychopaths...
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.
Authorities nabbed an armed illegal immigrant after he allegedly placed a $10,000 bounty calling for the deaths of federal immigration agents in Dallas, Texas. Agents continue to face mounting threats all across the nation.
Mexican illegal immigrant Eduardo Aguilar called for “10 dudes in Dallas with determination who aren’t afraid to [two skull emojis],” and offered “10K for each ICE agent” in an Oct. 9 TikTok post, according to the Department of Homeland Security. The latest threat comes just weeks after a sniper opened fire on an ICE facility in Dallas, killing two detainees despite intending to target federal agents.
***
9th circuit court rules trump can deploy NG to Portland.
A U.S. appeals court has ruled that the U.S. government can deploy National Guard troops for federalized service in Portland. A judge had previously sided with Oregon Democrats, believing the argument that it was not needed.
OBSERVATION - Follows same transjectory as the LA decision. Expect a similar decision in the Chicago appeal. Title 10 is pretty straight forward and NG deployments fit like a hand in glove to those requirements.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - NK 2.0 is drifting away into he past, a big geriatric nothing burger.
Freeing up NG for Portland may likely cause violence to flair up for a short period as Antifa tests the mettle of these forces. City leadership will likely squeal and push an appeal to the full 9th circuit, but that would be a waste of taxpayer money, thought that hasn’t stopped them before.
The lack luster NK 2.0 may cause a slow down in Antifa attacks on facilities, but may result in targeted attacks /assassination attempts on officers and families. Big hit money is floating around out there (see above) providing an incentive as well.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
GasBuddy reports that the U.S. national average price of gasoline has dropped under $3 per gallon for the first time since 2020.
OBSERVATION - Good and bad news. Cheaper prices is wonderful, however drops like this can also be a harbinger of worsening economic conditions that could reflect a recession.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Democrats continue to refuse to cross the isle and support the clean CR. Now the republicans are putting forth separate funding bills for essential govt workers. Democrats have already rejected an earlier bill to fund the military, and will likely reject this bill as well. They will reject any CR that doesn’t contain their expensive political add ons - to include funding health care for illegals.
Things are pretty flat on the political commentary side over NK 2.0. There have been some rumblings that the actual turnout may have been in the 3 million range, but that hasn’t been confirmed. I don’t believe it was near the 7 million mark, which is likely overstated, but 3 million seems kinda low too.
TRUMP Watch –
Leftists have their underwear in a knot over renovations being done at the WH saying it is unprecedented. Sorry, FDR made substantial renovations and Truman redid the whole building for example.
Illegal Immigration –
DHS announces the start of “Operation River Wall” to secure the Rio Grande against “illegal immigration, narco-terrorists, and other criminal activity at our Southern Border. The Coast Guard will surge response boats, shallow watercraft, command and control assets, and tactical teams; beginning with more than 100 boats and hundreds of personnel.
OBSERVATION - The Rio Grande region has historically been the major smuggling axis from Mexico into the US. I’m not sure of the status of the wall in this sector, so it may still be under construction, still allowing illegal traffic.
China -
FOLLOW UP - On October 17, China’s Ministry of National Defense announced that the Communist Party’s Central Committee and Central Military Commission had, after investigations, removed nine senior officers from their posts in the People’s Liberation Army.
The stunning announcement occurred on the eve of the long-delayed Fourth Plenum of the Party’s 20th Central Committee, scheduled to start tomorrow, October 20, and continue for four days. On the agenda are crucial economic matters, including the country’s 15th Five-Year Plan, which covers the rest of the decade, 2026-2030.
OBSERVATION - Some analysts are theorizing that the removals were not directed by Xi, but by his political enemies. They point to the removal of the most senior of the nine officers axed on the 17th was General He Weidong, the second-ranked vice chairman of the Commission and Xi Jinping’s No. 1 loyalist in the PLA. The general had gained prominence as Xi’s top enforcer in the military.
Bottom line - intrigue and a very slim chance Xi will be removed. Xi has been getting increased pressure from economic failures of the past 4 years but I’m not convinced that a soft coup is going to happen.
Japan –
Its official. Japanese parliament has elected Sanae Takaichi as the first female Prime Minister of Japan.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
A planned meeting between advisors to Presidents Trump and Putin has been postponed. The delay follows a lack of progress in talks between Marco Rubio and Sergey Lavrov, who had differing expectations regarding ending the war - CNN
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine is ready to stop hostilities along the current front line. The current line of contact should become the starting point for negotiations, – joint statement by Zelenskyy and other European leaders
Overnight Russia launched 2 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, 4 3-300 missiles and 98 strike drones of different types, - Ukrainian air forces
Russian losses per 21/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+1130 men
+8 tanks
+37 AFVs
+23 artillery
Russian assault crushed near Mala Tokmachka on the Orikhiv front. Around 2 companies from the 71st Motor Rifle Regiment advanced with 26 vehicles, including tanks, BMPs, BTRs, and “Tigrs.” By 20:00, Ukrainian forces had destroyed 2 tanks, 12 BMPs, 6 BTRs, and 2 Tigrs. The rest were either wiped out or fleeing.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Low drone/missile activity, though I find it interesting of the minor change in tactics, including missiles to low numbers of drones. In the past , drone counts were much higher before substantial numbers of missiles were added to the mix.
Growing evidence that Russian attempts to force breakthroughs is failing as up to battalion sized units are being thrown against Ukraine defenses only to be soundly defeated. Not sure if the daily count of Russian losses includes the assault near Mala Tokmachka, but this is one of the highest counts of tank and APV losses I’ve seen in quite a while. This is along the southern part of the front along a road that leads eventually to Zaporizhzhia. Months ago there were rumors of a planned Russian attack in this sector. Whether or not this is part of that is uncertain at this time. If it is, then such an offensive is off to a pretty bad foot.
Russian has continued to receive heavy losses in the Pokrovsk sector, north of the fortress town. The breakthrough there earlier this summer has been decimated and only a few pockets of isolated Russian forces reportedly remain. Until now, this was the main area Russia had thrown what little tanks and armor it had available to bring relief to the isolated forces.
On a strategic level, more talk and that’s all about a ceasefire and peace settlement. Its not going to get anywhere in the near term, only when Russia feels a greater economic pinch from Ukraine petroleum strikes and stricter economic sanction will the needle start to move.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Ceasefire still continues to hold but barely.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
VP Vance in Israel on ceasefire talks and inspections
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Hamas ceasefire violations continue:
Earlier today (Monday), the IDF identified several terrorists who crossed the yellow line and approached IDF troops operating in the Shejaiya area, posing an immediate threat to them. They were taken out.
Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed the IDF to send a clear message to Hamas leaders in Gaza through the American supervision mechanism:
- Every Hamas terrorist found beyond the yellow line in the territory controlled by Israel must evacuate immediately. Hamas leaders will bear responsibility for any incident.
- Anyone who remains in the area will be targeted without any further warning, in order to allow IDF forces to operate freely and immediately against any threat.
***
Following the return of the body of Tal Haimi, the bodies of 15 more deceased hostages are still in the Gaza Strip.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Palestinian outlets report Israeli operations tonight across nearly 20 towns and villages around Nablus
OBSERVATION - Hamas and other radical jihadists have been attempting to gain a foothold in Judea and Samaria for years now. They have been hampered in the past by the PA who views them as a threat to their rule.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Qatar’s Emir sharply criticized Israel and accused it of violating the ceasefire in Gaza, without mentioning the terrorist organization and the serious incident in Rafah where 2 IDF soldiers were killed
OBSERVATION - No mention of the violation and attack by Hamas causing it. Qatar again showing that they are not the honest broker to be involved in this ceasefire.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Hamas continues to walk a thin line with Israel ready to pulverize remaining areas of Gaza should a serious breach of the agreement occur again.
Nearly half of the remains of Israeli hostages have been returned. However, they do not hold the leverage that the living hostages had, but Hamas is attempting to milk as much anti-Israeli sentiment out of them as possible.
Near term, I expect Hamas to continue to probe Israel positions. The ultimate goal would be to be able to snatch some soldiers for more hostage conditions to resume. They ‘ve done similar in the past. I don’t think Hamas has enough reorganized force to go toe to toe with the IDF at this stage and will need a longer period to reconstitute its forces. In doing so, they could potentially see the wrath of Israel, with Trump’s full support, fall on them again. Trump does a lot of warning which Hamas may see as weakness, but they had better remember that same pattern of talk towards Iran just before the big bunker busters fell. That is a tool available for the US to use to directly punish Hamas. We are not going in on the ground to disarm them at this stage. However, the peace ‘partiners’ of Turkey, Egypt and Qatar are not really being forward about the effort to disarm either. Eventually, that will require a military solution as their pseudo diplomatic solution is failing.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Iran announced: The agreement with the IAEA is canceled
The Secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, Ali Larijani, announced today the cancellation of the agreement reached in Cairo last month, which was intended to allow a gradual return of supervision and inspections at nuclear sites in Iran.
OBSERVATION - That move is unlikely to cause the snapback measures to be removed, and likely will reinforce them instead.
Lebanon -
American Envoy to Lebanon and Syria, Tom Barrack:
“If Lebanon continues to hesitate on the disarmament of Hezbollah, Israel will act unilaterally.”
OBSERVATION - This has been the state of S Lebanon since the ceasefire. Israel has already continued to act unilaterally to strike Hezbollah targets. Not clear at this stage if IDF will advance northward again to clear out the region in detail or not. However, that is not off the table.
Colombia -
With the snap of a finger, Colombian President Gustavo Petro said they will need to “get rid of Trump” if the U.S. President doesn’t get rid of himself. In that snap, he made certain his words were not confused for some call for minor political action. Without directly saying the words, Petro insinuated that President Trump needs to be assassinated.
In a tense sit-down that left even the interviewer rattled, Petro declared his growing disdain for President Trump. Univision’s Daniel Coronell was at the presidential palace in Bogotá when Petro made the inflammatory remarks that are now sending shockwaves across borders. His intention was clear. The threat is real.
https://thelibertydaily.com/colombian-president-issues-not-so-veiled-threat-get/
OBSERVATION - Things have been collapsing since Trump was elected. Petro is a hard core leftist in the midst of a region that is shifting to the right.
***
Colombia has recalled its U.S. ambassador after a sharp diplomatic clash between Presidents Petro and Trump over American strikes on suspected drug boats in the Caribbean.
You can tell which governments are run by cartels by how they respond to President Trump.
Running late, post will come up after lunch today.
No post expected tomorrow - Thursday.
Most of today will be general summaries of the past couple days. I know I probably missed putting down some items but I didn’t want to ball things up that much.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.
***
Weekend protest forecast.
With the NK 2.0 in the rear view mirror, this weekend appears to returning to a number of smaller protests covering a variety of topics across the nation. At this time, none appear to be posing a threat of violence, though conditions locally can change very rapidly.
Significant areas of violence continue to be the cities listed above as well as some in the Alameda area near the Coast Guard facility that was going to host govt agents set to take actions in San Fran.
***
SNAP -
There is a growing storm across sectors of social media of people threatening to loot and steal from stores should their SNAP benefits get cut next month. Included in this is a threat to steal from people taking their groceries to their vehicles. By far the most of these threats are coming from blacks, who historically have resorted to violence - see recent Floyd riots for example. The aggrieved left has been looking for a trigger event to up the violence, and this may be it.
STRONGLY recommend that one makes plans to enlarge their grocery purchases BEFORE Nov 1, especially in and around blue urban areas where historical rioting and looting have occurred. Do your best to avoid stores the first week of November. For you preppers out there, review your stocks for an early testing, fill in gaps in storage needs now.
It is absolutely critical that those that physically go to a grocery store, be prepared to protect themselves and their groceries on their way back to load said groceries into their vehicle.
RELATED - Kalifornia Gov Newscum has ordered the deployment of NG forces to ‘assist’ food banks in the central valley. The claim is that they will help with the logistics, but an unstated mission is facility protection from potential looting once SNAP and EBT funds are stopped next month.
***
Democrat Texas state Rep. Jolanda Jones has sparked outrage after threatening that Democrats will “wipe out” every Republican and, in a graphic metaphor, “slash” their political opponents’ throats.
Jones framed the violent rhetoric as part of a call for Democrats to fight harder for voters they are losing.
She made the remarks on CNN’s “Erin Burnett OutFront,” arguing Democrats must change tactics to regain support among black and low-income voters.
Jones said the party needs to “fight” in ways she characterized as tougher and less restrained.
“I’m from the hood, okay?!” she raged on CNN
.
https://slaynews.com/news/texas-democrat-threatens-wipe-out-republicans-slashing-throats-hood-okay/
OBSERVATION - More inflammatory rhetoric from leftists. She believes violence is the way to gain support from blacks and low income voters.
***
(FO) Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA) said House Oversight Committee Democrats plan to host a “master ICE tracker” on the Oversight Committee website in the next few weeks. Garcia said the website will allow the public to report ICE movements and operations nationwide. Rep. Bryan Steil (R-WI) said the House Administration Committee will not allow Garcia to put the ICE tracker on any House website.
OBSERVATION - The left continues to threaten the lives of federal agents AND THEIR FAMILIES with this kind of doxxing effort.
***
Forward Observer reports what leadership of the “No Kings” is plotting next -
During an all-call yesterday, Indivisible, the country’s largest protest organizer and the main organizer behind the burgeoning Color Revolution movement discussed the following:
One organizer said the next goal is “to build a culture of defiance… [W]e basically need to make resistance cool so that people, one, want to join our movement and, two, people get socialized to these new and different tactics to fight authoritarianism.”
She added: “I do have to be real with you that this type of work is new in our toolbox and the American public needs to learn all of these new tactics and we’re going to need to be able to leverage these types of tactics at scale, en masse, if we are going to free America from rising fascism.”
In an interview, Indivisible co-executive director Ezra Levin said, “There will be more No Kings protests,” adding that boycotts will be part of the escalation. “I think we got to go into boycotts and I don’t think there’s anything more American than boycotts… Boycotts are the way that we exercise our power in between these margins. I think it’s a major tool at our disposal.”
FO ANALYSIS - Indicates that these elements are trying to shift from the Protest phase to the Resistance phase.
“direct action, on the other hand, is an attempt to directly intervene or interfere against those people or their policies. These pressure campaigns can be economic in nature (in the case of strikes and boycotts), social in the case of civil disobedience, or political in the case of mass political defiance, such as deliberately breaking relatively minor laws resulting in mass arrests, which get publicized in the media as a fascist dictatorship attacking peaceful protestors.
MORE OBSERVATIONS - They, as well as I, project these ‘direct action’ events to increase in number and intensity as the midterms approach. As noted, a key element is trying to get a key triggering event to build upon for additional support.
At this point, just what do they want to boycott? They’ve made many calls in the past, but they’ve never gained much traction. The Tesla action backfired on them ,so just who will receive their wrath this time ?
***
The Trump administration was deploying more than 100 federal agents near San Francisco, CA. However, after speaking to the mayor of SF, Trump stood down saying he’s going to let the mayor continue to deal with the crime, and the feds will monitor for now.
***
Illinois Federal District Judge Jeffrey Cummings ruled that ICE agents could face contempt of court or criminal charges for violating a Biden-era consent decree on immigration enforcement. The judge extended the consent decree, which blocks warrantless immigration arrests in Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Missouri, Kentucky and Kansas, until February 2026.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
The Energy Department announced Tuesday that it plans to buy oil for delivery in December and January, using a portion of the $171 million from President Donald Trump’s signature tax and spending law allotted for crude purchases.
“While this process won’t be complete overnight, these actions are an important step in strengthening our energy security and reversing the costly and irresponsible energy policies of the last administration,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a statement.
West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, is down about 30% since its peak in mid-January. It traded at about $58 a barrel on Tuesday, near the lowest since 2021.
That makes it an ideal time to refill the reserve, which at 408 million bbls is only about 60% full. But the Energy Department only has $171 million to buy crude — or enough for roughly 3 million bbls, based on today’s price.
OBSERVATION - NOTE, it will take year and billions of dollars to replace the oil biden syphoned off to bolster the democrats during there last midterm elections. We are at about 394 million barrels-about 55% of capacity
Initially, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright estimated it would take $20 billion and years to accomplish Trump’s goal of refilling the reserve to its maximum capacity.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The United States reportedly carried out its eighth strike against an alleged drug-smuggling vessel Tuesday night, this time off the Pacific coast of South America.
At least two aboard the vessel were killed in the attack — the first outside the
Caribbean, where the previous seven strikes occurred since Sept. 2 — sources told CBS News.
POLITICAL FRONT –
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries just vowed to investigate the people who made private donations to President Trump’s White House ballroom project.
Jeffries said, without evidence, that the donors were probably using the donations to curry favor with the Trump administration.
“And all of this is going to have to be investigated. It will. All of this will have to be uncovered. It will. And these people are going to be held accountable, no matter how long it takes,” Jeffries continued. “And that’s a warning to all of these people participating in this scheming to manipulate taxpayer dollars and, of course, to destroy the people’s house. The White House belongs to the American people. It doesn’t belong to Donald Trump.”
OBSERVATION - Jeffries’ threat has been out there for a few days now, but it reveals the revenge mentality of the left. Should they some how regain power, the attacks on US citizens for legal actions will make Stalin’s purges pale in comparison. James (Golem) Carvel said something like he wants to see Trump supporters, arrested, put into orange jump suit and publicly marched to detention camps. We’ve already seen a sampling of this under biden and the plandemic. What they want to do for revenge will be orders of magnitude bigger.
***
Senate Democrats rejected legislation on Thursday afternoon that would have ensured U.S. service members and some federal workers do not miss a paycheck during the government shutdown.
Senators voted 54 to 45 largely along party lines to advance the bill sponsored by Republican Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, falling short of the Senate’s 60-vote threshold. Just three Democrats — Sens. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania and Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff of Georgia — crossed party lines to back the legislation.
Johnson’s Shutdown Fairness Act would have paid military personnel and federal workers reporting to work during the shutdown, including Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agents, air traffic controllers and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers.
All federal employees are poised to miss a paycheck on Friday due to the continued funding lapse.
China -
The Chinese Communist Party formally agreed to the latest round of purges which included the former head of the Southern Theater Command, heads of the Eastern Theater Command and People’s Armed Police, and political commissars at the heads of the armed forces branches.
OBSERVATION - First, looks like Xi is riding this one out and second, the impact to Taiwan invasion planning may have taken a hit as some of these heads commander forces opposite the island and would have been involved in any invasion.
North/South Korea –
North Korea test-fired two hypersonic missiles on Wednesday, prompting protests from U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, which described the tests as unlawful and destabilizing.
State media Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Thursday reported North Korea’s Missile Administration launched two hypersonic missiles from Ryokpho District, Pyongyang Municipality, toward the northeast. The projectiles reportedly hit the target point on the tableland of Kwesang Peak in Orang County, North Hamgyong Province.
OBSERVATION - The test comes only days prior to next week’s annual summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Forum in South Korea, which is set to be attended by a number of world leaders including U.S. President Donald J. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
putin’s pulling the US’ chain in full effect the past few days.
- Initial discussions of Trump authorizing Tomahawks to Ukraine
- putin all forward for a meeting with Trump in Hungary
- Trump pulls back on Tomahawks thinking negotiations are working
- putin launches big strike on Ukraine
- Hungary talks cancelled.
Only this time, Trump has taken the biggest sanctions measures to date, nailing Rosneft and Lukoil. War damage from Ukraine drone strikes has significantly damaged the Russia industry, US pushing India from Russia oil and now a much more significant sanction that will definitely impact China.
Now putin’s PR is that Russia is a victim of American aggression
Economic Impact –
The U.S. Treasury has imposed new sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, citing Moscow’s refusal to pursue peace in Ukraine. Treasury says the move aims to cut Kremlin war funding and support President Trump’s push for a ceasefire.
OBSERVATION - This is a biggie, making even China pause in its Russian oil procurements.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
During the night of Oct 23-24, Russia launched 128 attack drones, including around 90 Shaheds, from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defense shot down or jammed 72 of them across the north, south, and east. 47 drones hit 10 locations.
Russian losses per 24/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+910 men
+1 tank
+5 ACVs
+34 artillery
+1 MLRS
NOTE - days missed saw a large drone / missile attack by Russia, Ukraine drones hammering key Russian oil and defense facilities and around the 1000 losses levels.
Notable strikes by Ukrainian attack drones saw them penetrating over 1,000 miles of Russian airspace to successfully hit the Plastmass explosives plant. Another attack had drones penetrated 1200 km of Russian airspace to successfully strike the Dagnotekh oil refinery.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Bolohivka of Kharkiv region and Pershotravneve(Zlahoda) of Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, of Dronivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine and Bolohivka of Kharkiv region and Pershotravneve(Zlahoda) of Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine
Analysis and Future Operations —
Nothing significant to change the face of the war happened the past few days. Drone/missile attack cycle continued, as well as moderately heavy fighting locally along the front. The biggest thing was watching the geopolitical play with Russia and the US. Trump is pulling out the bigger sanctions, even though they may impact some allies as well. As the war bleeds the Russian man-pool down, the assault on Russia’s bread and butter economic support -the oil industry - is seeing that bleed dry between Ukrainian strikes on refineries and pipelines on one side and now strong sanctions on the other.
Russian oil economy losses will play into analysis by many OSINT elements that 2026 will be the watershed year for the Russian military. Russia will be hard pressed to keep the numbers conscripted on the front, keep replacing tanks and other armor and pay for it without going into debt big time. At the present rate of advance, it will take Russia over a decade to seize eastern Ukraine. As long as Ukraine receives stable military support from the west, Russia has no capability at this time to speed the advance up if at all.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Ceasefire still continues to hold but barely.
- SecState Rubio meets with Netanyahu.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
US Secretary of State Rubio lands in Israel and meets with Netanyahu: “There is more work ahead of us, we intend to do the impossible – we will overcome the obstacles and get there”
***
The U.S. Central Command opened a Civil-Military Coordination Center in Israel, Oct. 17, marking the formal establishment of a main coordination hub for Gaza assistance five days after world leaders signed a U.S.-brokered plan to permanently end the war between Israel and Hamas.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Israel makes it clear it doesn’t want the PA involved in Gaza’s postwar administration.
***
Israeli PM Netanyahu warned POTUS that any Turkish presence in Gaza — military, security, or civilian — is a “red line for Israel,” reports @MaarivOnline, citing political sources.
Israel’s opposition is due to Türkiye’s strong ties to Hamas and its stances on Israel.
***
Dead hostages continue to come out of Gaza in small numbers. Israel accuses Hamas of deliberately slowing the repatriation of the remains.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Trump warns Netanyahu not to annex Judea and Samaria.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi’s have been generally quiet over the past week
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The elephant the room continues to be the resistance of Hamas to be disarmed and moved out of power. The negotiation team needs to realize this and start ramping up plan B for disarmament - military action. Until that happens, there will be no peace in the region.
Israel is continuing pressure Hezbollah throughout Lebanon. In spite of talking big, the Lebanese govt has done very little to disarm Hezbollah. Hence, Israeli drone and bomb strikes will continue into the distant future.
Lebanon -
The Israeli army carried out an airstrike on an alleged Hezbollah weapons depot in the Nabatieh region of southern Lebanon, military spokesperson Avichay Adraee said
***
An Israeli intelligence official tells Saudi Al-Arabiya that Hezbollah is ramping up efforts to rebuild its strength north of the Litani River and accuses Beirut of hesitating to act against Hezbollah. “We may act unilaterally and the consequences will be dire,” the official said.
Turkey –
The Turkish parliament has voted in favor of extending the Turkish military deployment to Iraq and Syria for another three years
Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025
Air defense batteries have been deployed along the Caribbean coast.
Two U.S. Air Force B-1B bombers flew a training mission over the Caribbean Sea on Thursday, marking the second time in a week that long-range U.S. bombers have flown over the region, according to two sources familiar with the operation.
OBSERVATION - The B1s were accompanied by F35s and had a C3 bird in the air as well. Definitely designed to raise the pucker factor of Venezulan forces. Additioanlly, Trump mentioned action on the ‘ground’, raising concerns of a strike on Venezuelan territory and not just at sea.
Seems that lots of democrats think that way, too.
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