Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025
***
President Trump is reportedly weighing the use of emergency powers to override court challenges and deploy federal troops to Portland and Chicago amid ongoing unrest. This involves involving the Insurrection Act to enforce our federal laws.
***
Videos on social media showing Portland PD giving Antifa et al TIPS on how to avoid federal troops..
***
Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson signs an order creating so-called “ICE-FREE ZONES” to block federal agents from staging raids on criminal aliens:
***
Meanwhile, Chicago PD opened a can of worms . . .
After Chicago police were ordered to refuse requests for assistance by ICE agents who were under threat Saturday, the national and Illinois Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) organizations issued a joint statement condemning the order that left law enforcement officers in danger.
In the statement, National Fraternal Order of Police President Yoes and State Lodge President Southwood say they’re “shocked and appalled” by reports the Chicago police officers were ordered not to respond to a call for help when U.S. Immigration and Customs and Enforcement (ICE) agents had their vehicle rammed and blocked in by 10 vehicles.
The officers were then assaulted by protesters – including a woman wielding a semi-automatic weapon who ended up being shot during the attack.
“[I]t appears that officers from the Chicago Police Department were ordered not to assist a group of ICE agents while they were physically threatened by what appears to be an angry mob,” the FOP statement says. “We at the National FOB, as well as our members at the Illinois FOB condemn these actions.”
Helping fellow officers in danger is the “number one rule in law enforcement” – and politics should never stand in the way – the FOP presidents explain:
“Let me be clear, both the National FOB and the Illinois FOP believe that when an officer calls for assistance, you answer, no matter what.”
“The number one rule in law enforcement is that we respond to any calls from officers in distress.”
“Whether you agree about immigration enforcement or not, when a law enforcement officer is in trouble, nothing should stand in the way of fellow officers rendering assistance.”
OBSERVATION - Rank and file Chicago police officers need to stand up to this horrible action, and quickly.
***
A suspected Latin Kings gang leader is now in custody after allegedly offering cash bounties of up to $10,000 to capture and kill a senior immigration officer involved in Chicago’s “Operation Midway Blitz.”
***
Training has been reported for Antifa et al in Philadelphia and Kalifornia. Attendees being taught tactics and other methods of using violence in their protests.
***
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
Trump’s fight with rogue judges may be a precursor to elimination of their ‘powers’ to interfere with NG call ups for potential violence in the 2026 mid terms and definitely the 2028 presidential campaign seasons. The left sees the line of defense from their rogue judges failing to stem the actions ordered by Trump and are gearing up for more violent confrontations.
Law enforcement leadership in both Portland and Chicago are under the microscope for their tacit support of Antifa and associate violence. Damning emails and radio transcripts have caught them with their pants down overtly pulling back support for ICE and other federal agents. This is just giving Trump more ammo to justify the federal deployment of NG forces to protect ICE facilities. Civic leaders in both cities and states are overplaying their hands and once the TROs are trashed by appeals courts, they will be stuck paying the bills, so to speak.
Even with all the delays, Antifa in both locations hasn’t really had that big of a presence. In Portland, pro-ICE counter protestors were able to come out and confront Antifa - and essentially get a way with it, as Antifa couldn’t mount any aggressive response, not having the numbers needed for such a response.
POLITICAL FRONT –
No movement on passing a CR to end the shutdown
***
FBI Director Kash Patel just exposed how Biden hack Jack Smith abused his power against US lawmakers in his J6 probe, saying he seized their phone records for ‘political purposes’.
Here’s what he wrote:
“We recently uncovered proof that phone records of U.S. lawmakers were seized for political purposes. That abuse of power ends now. Under my leadership, the FBI will deliver truth and accountability, and never again be weaponized against the American people.”
OBSERVATION - This corruption is orders of magnitude greater than that exposed by Watergate. It isn’t even close.
Illegal Immigration –
While much of the eyes on illegal immigration have been focused on protests/violence directed towards key ICE facilities, the tale of the tape at the border tells a much larger story. Last month only 20 something apprehensions were made, this in comparison to over 180K last year. By large, the spigot of illegals flooding into the nation has been shut off. Evidence also showing that hundreds of thousands are self deporting, rather than face arrest and forceful deportment.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Russia increasing the propaganda pressure to try to prevent Trump from letting Ukraine have Tomahawk cruise missiles. These missiles would give the Ukrainians the capability to strike harder and deeper into Russia. This would include Russian manufacturing plants for Shahed drones.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with increasing rain across the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and 152 attack drones, mostly Shaheds, from multiple directions including Kursk, Orel, and occupied Crimea. Ukrainian air defenses, EW units, and mobile teams shot down or suppressed 88 drones. Strikes were recorded at 10 sites.
Russian losses per 07/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1020 men
+3 tanks
+6 AFVs
+29 artillery
+1 AD system
Ukrainian Defense forces have cleared Sichneve village of Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Novovasylivske village of Zaporizhzhia region and Fedorivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
At night, a large drone attack on Russia was recorded: explosions were reported in Nizhny Novgorod and Belgorod, while airspace over Yaroslavl was temporarily closed
***
Trump says he has made a decision on sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. He wants to first confirm how they will be used
Analysis and Future Operations —
Ukraine ADA continues to remain overextended in the face of larger numbers of drones.
Action on the ground continues to reflect moderate heavy fighting as each side reportedly takes terrain.
One aspect that has faded away and replaced by drones is Russian superiority in artillery. The number of tubes available to fire just a year ago gave them a significant advantage. That advantage has been lost due to a couple of factors. First, Russian forces have lost a lot of artillery pieces over the course of the war that they haven’t been able to replace. NK artillery is coming to the front, but has reliability problems as well as specific caliber that isn’t standard for Russian forces. Second, in addition to the pieces lost from direct combat, Russian artillery has simply wore the tubes out - with few replacements available.
However, the biggest factor is that Ukraine has developed FPV drones capable to going further into Russian territory to locate and destroy artillery. Thus Russian artillery is reluctant to fire as it would give its location away to Ukraine recon drones who then relay the locations to the FPV attack drones. Within this threat, Russian artillery response has been slowed, in many cases allowing Ukrainian forces to attain their objectives or deny support to Russian troops trying to get to theirs.
The ongoing developments in the drone wars opens the window to future combat issues that opposing forces will need to address.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Next up - Oct 7 memorial services.
Key overnight developments -
- Oct 7 remembrances.
- Israel continues airstrikes in Gaza while Hamas delays accepting the Trump proposal in Egyptain talks.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
On this day, we pause to remember the horrific events of October 7, 2023—a day that scarred the soul of Israel and shocked the world. Nearly 1,200 innocent lives were brutally taken. Hundreds of men, women, and children were kidnapped and held hostage; many of whom are now dead. Countless women were subjected to unimaginable cruelty and humiliation before losing their lives. Families were shattered, homes burned to the ground, and entire communities left in grief and devastation.
Yet even in the shadow of such evil, we have witnessed extraordinary courage. We remember the victims, pray for the hostages, and stand steadfast with Israel in her fight for life and freedom.
Am Yisrael Chai — the people of Israel live.
https://x.com/beholdisrael/status/1975441019077329065?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
***
Israeli army Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir has instructed the military to raise its level of alert to the highest possible amid the Sukkot holiday, the army says. The move comes following an assessment Zamir held earlier today with the Israeli army’s top brass, the military says
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Yesterday, indirect Gaza talks began between Hamas, Israel in Egypt. As such the final 72 hour countdown has not been implemented as Hamas has not accepted the plan, rather, it is seeking to delay it via calls for negotiating the whole plan.
With a ceasefire not emplaced, IAF continued airstrikes of Hamas targets in and around Gaza City.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Any temporary pause in Israeli operations in Gaza has long ceased as Hamas trys to delay and modify the Trump plan to their satisfaction - proposals that have been soundly rejected over the course of the past year.
Hamas has an unspoken internal struggle going on between their political and military branches. Their political side is largely isolated from the fight, residing in Qatar and other friendly countries, while the military side is filled with death cult jihadis who want to inflict as much damage to Israel as possible in a fanatical last stand, thinking the arab world will rally militarily to their aid.
They are both being held to a shortened time line to accept the proposal. Israel will not back down from ongoing military operations until Hamas formally agrees to release the hostages within a 72 hour time frame starting on formal agreement of the plan. Their stalling isn’t working this time. They continue to lose troops and ground to Israel.
IMHO, Hamas will sabotage the talks with overt demands that are already been declared as hard no’s. Their propaganda wing will try to paint is as the fault of Israel, but I don’t see that gaining much traction this time around. Too much international support for the original Trump plan that deliberate Hamas efforts to sabotage the effort will be too much to overlook this time.
Syria -
Anarchy now in the city of Aleppo, Syria: Kurds outside the city are attacking with heavy weapons, while Kurdish fighters inside are attacking Julani’s forces.
After the Alawites the Christians and the Druze, is this the turn of the Kurds to be slaughtered by the ISIS gangs of the new Syrian president, the darling of the West?
A ceasefire has been reached in Aleppo’s Sheikh Maqsood and al-Ashrafiyah neighborhoods after clashes had broken out between the SDF and Syrian Army. - Syria TV
OBSERVATION - Like many larger middle eastern cities, different sects occupy different portions of the city. Aleppo is one such city, where the Kurdish sector has been progressively cut off from the larger Kurdish homelands to the east. The sunni forces that brought Julani into power in Syria are heavily backed by Turkey who see all Kurds as terrorists. They have been targeting minority elements all across Syria over the past year. Most recently attacking the Druze in S Syria. The Kurds, however, are a very tough people and serious fighters.
Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025
Trump has called off efforts to reach a diplomatic agreement with Venezuela, U.S. officials say; paving the way for a potential military escalation against drug traffickers or Nicolás Maduro’s government - NYT
OBSERVATION - Some view the discussions as a cover to have an excuse to go after Maduro for a govt change. Maduro has been currying favor with Russia and China as of late and US response may well be designed to go beyond stopping the narco terrorists. Some even go as far as this could be the start of a new “Monroe Doctrine” policy to keep Russia, China and even Iran out of the hemisphere.
Misc of Note –
Testing of your preparations are an essential component of readiness. At the home, we had a power outage of about 5 hours during the night. Found that many of our smaller flashlights we had staged around the house at one time were dead and broken - grandkids loved to play with them. We are taking steps to remedy. (BTW, we had other sources of light available such as candles and oil lanterns. But for a short term event, battery lights were the go to)
But this did give us a chance to see how our response could be to a weather related outage - we knew the outage we had would’t last long as power crews were replacing old poles just down the street.
Don’t let your equipment sit untested or used. For example, while we lived in kalifornia, we used our solar oven just about every day - saved energy and cooling costs. Now we test out how to use our free standing fireplace to cook foods.
The time to make sure your stuff ‘works’ is to take it out of the box and actually USE it for a while. Your mental thoughts for its use may clash with reality and you have to modify your plans - which is a good thing to find out now, rather that when a real disaster strike.
Thanks Godzilla.
EXCELLENT NEWS!
And great advice on the preps, especially in light of the u rest in this country and the long term forecast for the winter this year. Sounds like it's going to be rough in some spots, the NE for one.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The United Nations just put a giant target on the backs of homeschoolers worldwide. Under the guise of “human rights,” the U.N.’s controversial “education” bureaucracy is officially demanding that all governments regulate and control home education—if they allow it at all.
The U.N.’s demands include “education standards” for homeschooling, as well as “accountability” to government. The outfit is also demanding mandatory registration, forced “evaluations” of homeschoolers by authorities, compulsory “home visits,” and much more. In fact, the agency is even calling for U.N.-approved values and attitudes to be imposed on children across a wide array of issues, with U.N. control of “education content.”
The new U.N. Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) report on home education, titled “Homeschooling through a human rights lens,” lays out the most draconian global assault on home education in history. The powerful global agency, long dominated by card-carrying communists, claims governments must bring homeschooling under their thumb—for the benefit of the children, of course.
OBSERVATION - The left’s unending efforts to brainwash our children, in addition to controlling other aspects of their lives and essentially removing them from the control of their parents has been very evident here in the US and exposed in a greater detail during the wuhan plandemic. The UN, among other globalist entities, provides the support and impetus towards this goal.
***
Another domino fell Friday in the collapse of collusion by financial institutions seeking to impose net-zero ideology on the American marketplace, as the Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA) closed its doors.
“Net-zero,” which envisions achieving zero-sum emissions of so-called “greenhouse” gases, particularly carbon dioxide, is one element of the radical-left’s ESG (Environment, Social, Governance) ideology. Financial institutions belonging to groups such as NZBA agree to discriminate against, or in favor of, companies based on whether or not they adhere to net-zero mandates.
“On paper, the NZBA, which was convened by the UN Environment Programme finance initiative but led by banks, encouraged members to slash the carbon footprint of their investments and help drive the transition to net zero emissions by 2050,” The Guardian noted Friday.
Over the past two years, such collusive efforts have come under scrutiny for being potential anti-trust violations.
OBSERVATION - The influence of net zero globalists have been taking serious hits over the past year as the waste and excessive costs of these green energy schemes have come to fruition. The inertia of the drive will continue for a while, but hopefully smart govts can breach the losses and get back to sound science and energy production.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025
***
CHICAGO -
Chicago Mayor Johnson just declared that war with Trump is “on the table” during a press conference after signing an EO establishing “no ICE zones” across the city.
When asked what’s on the table if the Trump administration continues deporting noncitizens, he replied, “Everything.”
He escalated further, reminding the press that he thinks the “right-wing” in America wants a “Civil War rematch,” adding that the “President of the United States has declared war.”
https://x.com/MediasLies/status/1975220254356730094
Chicago’s Democrat Mayor Brandon Johnson suggested on Tuesday that the Chicago Police should arrest ICE agents and other federal officers who he claims are breaking his new executive order aimed at hampering immigration enforcement.
OBSERVATION - Johnson is treading on very thin ice. His approval rating by one poll is down to 4% and such inflammatory statements are crossing over into insurrection. 96% probably would approve of his arrest for such.
Still stinging from the national rebuke for failing to come to the aid of federal law enforcement, Chicago police will not be stupid enough to try to arrest feds on city property.
***
FBI Director Kash Patel just revealed that he’s surging FBI resources to Chicago to take on violent crime and make the streets safe and help DHS.
***
Federalized Soldiers with the Texas Army National Guard have arrived at the Elwood Army Reserve Center in the far southwestern suburbs of Chicago, after several hundred were ordered there earlier this week by U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth against the wishes of Illinois Governor JB Pritzker.
OBSERVATION - Likely waiting for final deployment to the ICE facility once some to the legal wrangling are over.
PORTLAND -
Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said on Fox News Tuesday that she issued an ultimatum to Portland’s top officials to contain Antifa demonstrations.
Noem said she told Portland’s mayor point-blank that federal authorities would “cover him up” with a surge of manpower if city leadership failed to enforce basic security measures.
Noem said she delivered the warning during face-to-face meetings with both the mayor and the city’s police chief. She also met with the state police superintendent.
“I met with [the police chief] and also the superintendent of the state police. I told them what we wanted. We wanted more security here at the building, a bigger buffer zone to keep our officers safe. We wanted to have their streets opened up again and not let the anarchists run this city anymore,” Noem said.
OBSERVATION - Key to this is a face to face dressing down of Portland officials. Videos showing the participants leaving the meeting showed the police chief with a very red face looking like he got a serious a$$ chewing. Noem knows she has the full backing of Trump in this matter and made it painfully clear they better shape up.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
A Dallas-based auto lender built on giving car loans to illegals has just gone belly up, and it’s dragging Wall Street down with it.
Tricolor Holdings was once hailed by the US Treasury as a “community development” success story. Now, they’ve just filed for bankruptcy as fraud allegations and a full-blown federal investigation overtake them. The company, which sold overpriced used cars to illegals and wrapped the scheme in a feel-good “social lending” label, is leaving major US banks like JPMorgan, Barclays, and Fifth Third staring at massive losses.
***
Gold has broken past $4000/oz mark, due to a dollar weakened over concerns on the duration and depth of the ongoing govt shutdown.
Silver poised to break $40/oz.
***
(FO) The Trump administration could announce a bailout plan for U.S. farmers hit by the U.S.-China trade war as soon as today. According to sources familiar with the plan, initially the bailout plan will give $15 billion in aid to farmers, but the government shutdown could hinder implementation.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., told Newsmax on Tuesday that former members of the Biden administration should face criminal consequences following reports that Republican senators were surveilled by U.S. intelligence agencies.
Tuberville’s comments came after Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, asserted Monday that the Biden administration’s FBI targeted eight Republican senators as part of an election-related investigation, calling it “worse than Watergate.”
https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/tommy-tuberville-biden-administration-fbi/2025/10/07/id/1229422/
OBSERVATION - Absent motivation from Bondi to get the job done, those involved, including Smith, are likely to skate.
***
New Harvard CAPS/Harris poll:
71% of Americans support using the U.S. military to kill drug traffickers in Latin America, including:
- 89% of Republicans
- 67% of Independents
- 56% of Democrats
OBSERVATION - Democrats are once again finding themselves on the losing side of the argument.
***
The Schumer Shutdown is the gift that keeps on giving. Not only did the Democrats leave open the door to massive federal workforce layoffs, as we’ve reported here at PJ Media, but now they’ve created a situation where the Trump administration finally broke the Democrat gridlock in getting its nominees confirmed.
Tuesday night, the Republican majority in the Senate was able to confirm a batch of 107 of Donald Trump’s nominees. It did so through a party-line vote and reduced the number of nominees waiting for confirmation to “double digits,” according to Fox News.
OBSERVATION - More evidence that the democrat decision to block the CR was a knee jerk reaction to the rabid leftists in the party and the consequences not well thought out.
China -
(FO) Taiwanese officials are reviewing the national medical logistics to isolate it from exploitation from China. Taiwanese defense officials are reopening negotiations with the United States on acquiring the MH-60R anti-submarine helicopter for the Republic of China Navy.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
The momentum for a Ukrainian settlement that emerged after Putin and Trump’s meeting in Alaska has been exhausted, according to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov.
Logistics –
Russia has lost most of the 12,000-strong tank force it had in 2022. Currently, Russia has fewer than 3,000 tanks and uses them sparingly due to the lethality of Ukrainian drones
Economic Impact –
Belarus quadrupled its gasoline exports to Russia in September as Moscow faced fuel shortages due to Ukrainian strikes on its energy infrastructure, Reuters reports. About 49,000 tons (14,500 barrels/day) were shipped by rail from Belarusian refineries to Russia last month, according to agency sources.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with increasing rain across the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 183 strike drones (Shahed, Gerbera, etc.) on various fronts of which 100 were Shaheds. As of 09:00, Ukrainian air defenses shot down or neutralized 154 of them. 22 hit 11 target locations.
Overnight, Russian drones targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure. A strike on a thermal power plant injured staff and caused serious damage to the station’s equipment, according to DTEK.
Russian losses per 08/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1010 men
+2 tanks
+5 AFVs
+26 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Novohryhorivka village of Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine
Russian media confirm a railway line between Stroganovo and Mshinskaya was blown up in the morning, causing a locomotive and several cars of a military cargo train to derail. Traffic on the section has been halted, with passenger and freight trains rerouted and delayed for several hours. Security services are clearing the site.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Moderately high Russian drone count. Action on the ground still moderately intense based on reported Russian losses.
Report on Belarus exports of gasoline to Russia further identifies the fact that Ukraine’s offensive against Russian oil industry is hurting it deeply. I wouldn’t be surprised to see concentrated attacks on Belarus pipelines on the Russian side of the border to impact this source as well.
Europe / NATO General –
Germany will authorize police to shoot down threatening drones, says the interior minister. The country is also exchanging information with Israel and Ukraine to strengthen its own anti-drone defenses. — AFP
***
After his seventh chosen Prime Minister resigned a month after being appointed and just hours after presenting the ‘new cabinet’, French President Emmanuel Macron is in the deepest crisis of his troublesome mandate.
The British Times writes that Macron has become a ‘lame duck running out of options.’
French newspaper Le Monde adds that Macron faces a hard choice of three scenarios: 1) appoint a new prime minister, 2) dissolve the National Assembly again and hold elections, or 3) – in the worst case – resign himself.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/10/lame-duck-macron-clings-power-after-another-french/
OBSERVATION - Once the pretty boy of European politics, Macron has hit the wall. His popularity is low, due in part to the unregulated immigration of moslem third worlders who’ve turned large portions of France into a cesspool, as well as an economy in a world of hurt.
***
Czech election this past week saw a billionaire, ex-premier, and pro-Trump nationalist named Andrej Babiš roared back into the catbird seat, nearly wiping the floor with his campaign opponents.
The 71-year-old Babiš, head of the ANO (YES) Party and no stranger to the national stage, has pledged to work as a pro-Western, pro-European leader. Nonetheless, he has some positions that have Ursula von der Leyen and the Brussels Brahmins very skittish about this latest populist takeover.
For one thing, Andrej Babiš is considered too friendly with the leaders of Hungary and Slovakia, both of which have proven to be obstinately opposed to European plans for Ukraine and Russia.
OBSERVATION - Another populist victory but one that is concerning in another way. Opposition to the EU leadership has allowed some degree of affinity to Russia to creep into national positions.
***
The Latvian Ministry of Defense has announced it is extending the nighttime airspace closure along its eastern border with Russia, stating that the restrictions would remain in effect nightly from October 8, between 8:00pm and 7:00am EEST, adding that they would remain in place “until further decisions are made” regarding coordination with other Baltic States and NATO Operation Eastern Sentry.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Talks continue in Egypt, with representatives from Turkey, Qatar and the US in attendance
- Hamas increases its demands on Israel in exchange for hostage releases.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Interesting metric on how the fight in Gaza has gone -
On October 7, 2023, Hamas fired 4,300 rockets at Israel in a single day.
October 7, 2024: 14.
October 7, 2025: one.
***
The Israeli Navy has intercepted a new flotilla attempting to break the blockade of Gaza, and is escorting the ships and their passengers to an Israeli port.
The nine ships set sail from Italy with about 100 activists on board. The IDF says all passengers are safe and will be deported soon.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Significant difficulties in talks in Sharm el-Sheikh. Hamas refuses the disarmament clause, demands a full withdrawal of the IDF from the Gaza Strip, and insists on agreeing on all the outline’s clauses before releasing the hostages. In fact, Hamas has not moved from its positions in previous rounds and does not accept the Trump outline.
There are disagreements within the organization, but currently the side with the tougher stance (the miiltary side) is prevailing. Israel is disappointed with Qatar and Turkey, who promised to bring Hamas’s agreement to the outline, and so far again have failed to deliver.
Hamas: “Lists of prisoners to be released were exchanged today according to the agreed-upon criteria and numbers”
Hamas is now demanding that Israel return the bodies of its slain leaders, Yahya and Mohammed Sinwar, as part of the Gaza negotiations, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Top US envoys and prominent regional figures (Turkey and Qatar) have joined the third day of indirect talks between Israel and Hamas in Egypt on President Donald Trump’s plan to end the war in Gaza.Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a close confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is also due to arrive on Wednesday afternoon.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Four Houthi drones fired from Yemen were intercepted over Eilat in southern Israel today, with no immediate reports of casualties.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Turkish official: Director of Turkish Intelligence İbrahim Kalın will attend the ceasefire negotiations on Gaza tomorrow in Sharm El-Sheikh. The priority for Turkey is achieving a ceasefire, conducting a hostage/prisoner exchange & ensuring the delivery of humanitarian aid
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Hamas playing the ‘yes, but’ negotiation tactic it has for the past years. The others are in a limited toleration mode. Should Hamas fail to make serious concessions, these talks will break down once again as in the past. The capitol they may have gotten from a recognition of a palestinian ‘state’ is fast running dry.
Meanwhile, Israel forces continue to prosecute the assault on Gaza City. Israel is set to continue the fight until Hamas agrees on the plan and starts the 72 hour clock.
Trump’s support for Israeli action to militarily remove Hamas still stands should Hamas refuse to the plan.
As negotiations have begun to fall apart, I don’t see any break thru coming any time soon.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Iran is reportedly pursuing alternative mechanisms, which may include barter systems, to mitigate the impact of snapback sanctions. Iran’s moves to mitigate sanctions are probably driven by concerns that sanctions on the Iranian economy will trigger an economic downturn.
OBSERVATION - Reflects a degree of desperation on the part of the mullahs. If the economy continues to go down (it is already in a downturn, this would only accelerate it), the motivation for civil unrest will rise proportionately .
Syria -
More clashes erupt between Kurdish forces and Al Qaeda-linked Syrian regime elements in Aleppo.
Turkey –
Erdogan: We will not allow a cycle of instability in Syria; We are closely monitoring all developments related to Syria; The SDF must fulfill its promise and fully integrate with the Syrian state; The territorial integrity of Syria is essential to us; Turkey will continue to stand by the Syrian people
OBSERVATION - That wont carry water as long as Turkish backed militias continue to attack the Kurds.
Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025
DOJ’s office of legal counsel has produced a classified legal opinion that justifies lethal strikes against a secret and expansive list of cartels and suspected drug traffickers—beyond just those designated as militants by Trump admin, sources say
The US reiterates that it has no diplomatic presence in Venezuela and avoids commenting on the alleged attack plot against its embassy.
Ping to the first item of post 944.
A globalist attack on homeschooling worldwide.
“He escalated further, reminding the press that he thinks the “right-wing” in America wants a “Civil War rematch,””
Rematch because the wrong side won?
Clear thinking there, Mayor Johnson...
I wouldn't bet on that.
That mayor of theirs needs to be removed from office. Good thing he's nothing more than a failed mayor of a failed city. If he were in any more prominent position, he could do some real damage.
Thanks Godzilla.
Surprising breakthrough in Gaza overnight. Trying to make sense of it all, see below.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025
***
A crowd of Islamists in NYC waving Hamas flags declare that they will presumably carry out attacks in the US.
“We did not act enough! We will show up, stronger than we did the first October 7th!”
https://x.com/EYakoby/status/1975765993075908636
Violence broke out in downtown Boston Tuesday night when a pro-Palestinian demonstration escalated into a full-blown riot, leaving four police officers injured and leading to 13 arrests. The clash unfolded on the two-year anniversary of the October 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attack on Israel, as hundreds gathered in what organizers called a “Flood Downtown for Palestine” event.
Boston police reported that the trouble started when protesters refused to clear the roadway near the Soldiers and Sailors Monument on Boston Common, blocking emergency vehicles and surrounding cruisers.
As the situation worsened, additional units arrived, but protesters kept fighting back.
“As violence escalated,” police said, more officers were deployed while agitators “continued to resist dispersal.” In total, four officers ended up needing medical treatment for injuries ranging from facial trauma to other assaults sustained in the scrum.
https://thelibertydaily.com/marxist-boston-mayor-pretends-be-tough-after-city/
OBSERVATION - With the current hostage/ceasefire agreement moving forward combined with the two year remembrance of the Oct 7 attack by Hamas, pro-Hamas protestors took the opportunity to raise a ruckus. This action continues to show that their goals is to continue to press for the elimination of Israel and to do so here in the US. They are not satisfied with just holding signs, they are more violence shifted.
***
CHICAGO -
Bulletins from CIS & DHS state four Chicago ICE facilities, including Broadview have been surveilled with detailed layouts, diagrams & photos— posted to an Antifa website with pics of ICE Agents names & faces.
https://x.com/Dapper_Det/status/1975728209191673977
OBSERVATION - This is a dangerous development that could lead to better coordination of Antifa et al attacks on these facilities and agents. Shows a higher level of organization being present.
PORTLAND -
Attorneys general from 20 states have stepped into the dispute between Oregon officials and the Trump administration over the use of National Guard troops to defend Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents who have come under assault from protesters in Portland.
Led by Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen, Brenna Bird of Iowa, Gentner Drummond of Oklahoma, and South Carolina’s Alan Wilson, the attorneys general filed an emergency appeal amicus brief with the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals on Oct. 8, charging that Portland police failed to protect ICE agents from “violent rioters,” and that “President [Donald] Trump’s deployment of a small number of National Guard members to defend against this lawlessness is responsible, constitutional and authorized by statute.”
The brief in support of the Trump administration was also signed by attorneys general from Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, Texas, and West Virginia.
OBSERVATION - This brief shows that Trump is not alone in this showdown with Portland and Chicago in regards to NG activation and deployment under Title 10.
***
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals on Wednesday unanimously voted to lift Judge Immergut’s Temporary Restraining Order on Trump’s mobilization of Oregon National Guard Troops.
However, the Ninth Circuit left in place Judge Immergut’s block on troop deployment.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/10/breaking-appeals-court-lifts-judges-order-blocking-trump/
OBSERVATION - I am assuming that the ‘blocked on troop deployment’ may refer to CA NG forces being deployed to Portland. From the read, Trump can activate OR NG, but not CA NG. Again, that is outside the lines for judicial action - military deployments are the strict purview of the Executive Branch. The whole of the 9th will likely have to weigh in on this and probably even the USSC before it is all done.
***
ADDITIONAL OBSERVATION - The above show two fronts of the overall leftist assault on the US that is growing. The pro-Hamas /jihad element, with leftist support and the Antifa / anti-ICE front. Common thread - leftist backing for both.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.
***
(FO) Louis Geri, the man arrested on Sunday ahead of the Washington, D.C. Red Mass at St. Matthews Cathedral had more than 200 homemade explosive devices and Molotov cocktails in his possession.
According to court records, after D.C. police approached Geri, he handed them a manifesto which included threats to Supreme Court justices and ICE.
Geri was also charged with possession of a destructive device and false report of a weapon of mass destruction connected to an incident at the same church in September.
OBSERVATION - No announcement of motivation by media or law enforcement - not surprising since for all appearances this is another leftist. FO sees this as another “lone wolf” incident where the individual has been radicalized to action by leftist social media.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Gold and silver continue to rocket upwards.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) has announced that as of today, October 8, federalized members of the Texas Army National Guard, under Title 10 Orders and the command of NORTHCOM, have been deployed into the Greater Chicago Metropolitan Area. According to Northern Command, these Soldiers will be employed to protect federal property and federal government personnel who are performing federal functions, including U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
POLITICAL FRONT –
Another senate vote, and democrats refuse to cross the isle to get the govt running again.
(FO) The Senate Majority Political Action Committee (PAC), linked to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, told Democrats it would be a mistake to take pressure off of Republicans by voting to end the government shutdown. The Senate Majority PAC said Democrats are winning the shutdown public messaging campaign, in a memo circulated to Democrats that included polling showing likely 2026 voters blame Republicans for the shutdown.
OBSERVATION - They are dangerously clinging to their ‘polling’. I really don’t think the general public has been impacted very much by the shutdown. Republicans are continuing to hammer and win on the democrat funding for illegals medical care.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump on Truth Social:
“I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan. This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace. All Parties will be treated fairly! This is a GREAT Day for the Arab and Muslim World, Israel, all surrounding Nations, and the United States of America, and we thank the mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, who worked with us to make this Historic and Unprecedented Event happen. BLESSED ARE THE PEACEMAKERS! DONALD J. TRUMP PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA”
Illegal Immigration –
Leavitt -
“Unlawful crossings along the U.S.-Mexico border in fiscal year 2025 plummeted to the lowest annual level since the early 1970s, amid the Trump administration’s sweeping clampdown on illegal immigration.”
https://x.com/PressSec/status/1975522156185292850
Japan –
Japan’s Joint Staff office disclosed that the Japan maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) conducted a minelaying exercise with a minesweeper tender and destroyer escort last week in Japan’s southernmost islands, which China also claims.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
Logistics –
There are reports that a large fire has broken out in Novosibirsk at a factory that manufactures electronics and microchips for the Russian defense industry.
It’s unclear whether a drone from Ukraine was behind the blaze, or whether it was a sabotage incident, or possibly an accident, which the cause of the fire being under investigation. The location is in southern Siberia.
The facility produces electronics, microchips, and services electrical equipment.
According to open sources, the factory also works in soldering components, defense-related equipment, communications, and radio electronics for the Russian defense-industrial complex.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1975934205302575129
OBSERVATION - Unconfirmed reports that the factory is a near total loss.
Economic Impact –
Russian stocks fell to a three-year low after the Foreign Ministry said ties with the US were “destroyed to the core.” The Moscow Exchange dropped over 4%, with heavy losses for Gazprom, Sberbank, VTB, and Rosneft, as analysts cited panic selling after Deputy FM Ryabkov’s remarks.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with increasing rain across the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 112 strike drones, mostly Shaheds. By 09:00, Ukrainian air defenses had shot down or jammed 87 drones across the north, south, and east. Twenty-two strikes hit 12 locations
Bloomberg reports that recent Russian strikes destroyed over half of Ukraine’s domestic gas production, forcing Kyiv to seek emergency fuel imports worth about €1.9 billion to get through winter.
According to sources, the massive Oct. 3 attacks on energy sites in Kharkiv and Poltava regions wiped out roughly 60% of national output.
Power blackout in Chirnomorsk of Odesa region after Russian strikes at critical infrastructure. Russia also attacked port infrastructure in Odesa region
Ukraine drones have reportedly attacked an oil depot in Matveev Kurgan of Rostov region
A fire is currently burning at the Efimovka Oil Pumping Station on the Kuibyshev-Tikhoretsk Pipeline, which runs between the Ural Mountains and the Black Sea, following a drone strike earlier tonight by Ukraine.
Overnight, Ukrainian drones struck a gas processing plant in Kotovo, Volgograd region. The local governor reported debris falling on a boiler facility and a fire at fuel and energy infrastructure sites. FIRMS data confirmed fires at the Kotovo plant and at the Yefimovka pumping station, about 8 km to the south.
Russian losses per 09/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1020 men
+1 tank
+1 AFV
+15 artillery
From reports, the bulk of the Russian attacks have been in the Pokrovsk sector. Northern and southern fronts relatively quiet.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Drone wars are going at it hammer and tongs, with both sides targeting oil/gas production and distribution. This is critical for both sides, though Ukraine is likely in a better shape since they’ve been able to adapt to the past several winters with affected supplies of oil and gas. Russians not so, now feeling a real pinch in gasoline supplies and other economic woes. for the first time.
Watching the Pokrovsk sector as indicators are that this is where Russia will attempt its next offensive. A key factor on when this will kick off may well be determined by the availability of fuel to haul troops and supplies to the front. In addition to enhanced Ukraine defensive fortifications, the area continues to swarm with Ukraine FPV drones.
Europe / NATO General –
Macron held talks with the leaders of the two chambers of parliament on Tuesday, hinting at a possible move to dissolve the lower-house National Assembly and trigger snap elections. The talks come as outgoing PM Sébastien Lecornu holds “last-ditch” negotiations with political parties aimed at breaking the country’s political deadlock.
OBSERVATION - Macron’s status in the world is crumbling as he can’t keep things going at home, let alone on the rest of the world’s stage
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Next up - Oct 7 memorial services.
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas and Israel come into agreement on a Phase 1 plan for hostage releases and ceasefire.
- Trump to head to Israel this weekend and speak before the Knesset
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Trump announced early Thursday that Israel and Hamas have signed the first phase of his peace plan to end the war in the Gaza Strip. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said shortly after, “With God’s help, we’re bringing everyone home.”
“I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Trump will arrive in Israel and on Sunday address the Knesset in Jerusalem, according to Ynet.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Hamas and Israel have come to an agreement for a Phase 1 ceasefire. Details of the agreement are still trickling out but here’s what I’ve been able to put together so far.
As per N12News:
-Once the agreement is signed (scheduled for 12:00 PM local time today), IDF troops will withdraw to the designated line within 24 hours of signing.
NOTE - This ‘line’ leaves Israel in control of 53% of Gaza.
-All living hostages will be released at once from Gaza by Monday at the latest; deceased hostages will be released later, in stages.
NOTE - Conflict may have caused access problems to some of the bodies, so recovery may be delayed.
- 1700 detained Gazans and 250 Palestinians serving life sentences are expected to be transferred to Turkey
-Hamas Nukhba terrorists who participated in the October 7 attack will not be released.
NOTE - This was the military unit that lead the attack into Israel on Oct 7.
-The IDF will control an estimated 53% of Gaza until the last hostage is released.
-Hamas will not hold ceremonies to release the hostages.
-The Rafah Crossing will be opened in both directions.
NOTE -Rafah Crossing is Egyptian controlled and may have lax inspection protocols
-600 trucks of aid will be brought into Gaza each day.
- Egypt, Turkey, Qatar and the US have signed as guarantors of the agreement.
Netanyahu’s office: The ceasefire in Gaza will take effect after the Israeli government approves it this evening.
A leading Palestinian source told Al Jazeera: Progress has been made on the prisoner exchange lists and guarantees that there will be no return to war after the release of prisoners. The Jerusalem Post, citing Israeli officials: no Nukhba terrorists who actively participated in the October 7 massacre will be released.
Palestinian media reports that the Israeli army deployed tanks to the Rashid coastal road to prevent Palestinians from returning to Gaza City and the Strip’s north. Footage shows the tanks firing shells near a crowd of Palestinians gathering in the area
The IDF is on especially high alert as a ceasefire agreement in Gaza is expected to take effect.
The IDF is concerned that Hamas may attempt to exploit the final hours before the deal takes effect to launch additional attacks, fire rockets, or carry out abduction attempts.
Speaking Wednesday night, IDF sources welcomed the deal but stressed that all forces remain under strict operational directives. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir instructed troops operating deep inside Gaza and along the northern front to remain fully alert, focus on defense, and be prepared for any unexpected developments.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/416009
***
There are reports of Red Cross ambulances entering Gaza to undisclosed locations
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
The Shin Bet and IDF announced on Wednesday that they had dismantled a major arms smuggling operation from Iran, intended for terrorist cells operating in the West Bank.
According to the military statement, the intercepted cargo included a considerable arsenal: 15 anti-tank rockets, 29 Claymore charges, 4 drones (including two explosive drones), an RPG launcher, 3 warheads, 20 hand grenades, 53 pistols, 7 assault rifles, 9 machine guns, as well as 750 pistol rounds.
Security services have arrested an arms trafficker from the Ramallah region, whose interrogation led to the uncovering of the supply network.
The operation resulted in the identification of the network responsible for the smuggling, linked to the special operations branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and the Quds Force, headed by Ezatollah Bakri.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Gulf Cooperation Council: Gaza agreement must be the beginning of a path leading to a two-state solution
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Boy did I ever miss this call! All trends pointed to efforts to fail. It appears that Hamas folded under concentrated pressure from Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar, making it clear to them there was no room for maneuver. At least I caught that much, just doubted they wouldn’t be this effective.
We are not out of the woods yet as it appears that the agreement is still only partial and that there will be considerable wrangling over a “Phase 2”.
Questions remain.
What Hamas must do and will they do it:
1. Hamas must lays down their weapons.
2. Hamas gives up rule in Gaza.
3. Gaza must be deradicalized terror-free zone.
These three items are probably Hamas’ greatest sticking points and may have support from Turkey, Egypt and Qatar to retain some control and presence in Gaza. Being trigger happy, this part of the deal may fall apart and resumption of fighting resume to some degree.
It is being made clear by some officials that if Hamas refuses to disarm, Israel will resume operations, this time without hostage related constrictions.
There has been a lot of speculation on just how far Israel will eventually pull out of Gaza. Most speculation suggests that Israel will maintain control of the Philadelphia corridor - area along the Gaza / Egyptian border - as well as a security buffer zone around the area plus and extended presence in N Gaza, given that this area poses a threat as a rocket launch area towards more populated areas of Israel.
Heightened alert by Israeli forces for attempts to kidnap IDF soldiers. By Hamas thinking, they are not covered by the current agreement, thereby allowing them to retain a “hostage” leverage for the ongoing talks. If they do this during the ceasefire, it would be a violation and all bets will be off.
Hostages were the biggest card in Hamas’ hand and should the agreement be followed, they will lose that edge. It is therefore more likely that Hamas will be tamed to a degree. The loss of military and political power in Gaza will hurt it substantially. Already there is increasing word of fighting between Hamas elements, gangs and tribal clans for control of areas. Enough hard core Hamas followers will likely be able to go to ground that they could try to resurrect the movement at a later date.
International talk looking to use this agreement as a spring board to a two state solution will go on but nothing but talk will happen in the near term. Israel would almost have to be forced at the barrel of a gun to permit a Palestinian ‘state’ and have Jerusalem divided. LETS REMEMBER, in 2005, Israel removed all jews from Gaza, left a well developed and profitable agriculture industry for the arabs, and allowed them to govern themselves. Within two years, Hamas took control with the popular vote of the people and now here we are today. Neither Hamas or the PA in their charters acknowledge Israel’ right to exist and both have been committed to the elimination of the nation. Gives us a preview of how this ‘two state’ solution will pan out.
Over the course of the next week, we’ll see if Hamas is going to play by the rules. I am hopeful that the hostages get returned without delay of monkeyshines by Hamas. But unless Hamas is completely eliminated from the scene, the terror clock has only been reset and what ever radical jihadi sect takes control of Gaza begins working towards the next attack.
With a tentative halt to the fight in Gaza, Israel will once again be fixing their eyes on Iran and the Houthis, their only active proxy. With Trump expressing a willingness to go after any nuclear weapons program again, Iran is treading carefully.
Houthis are cockroaches, able to hide drones and rockets for attacks on Israel, but their Red Sea blockade seems to be losing its grip. Also, Houthis will be losing their moral justification for attacking Israel with a successful ceasefire.
Lebanon -
The Israel Defense Forces on Tuesday killed Hezbollah terrorist Mahmoud Ali Issa in the Deir Aames area of Southern Lebanon’s Tyre District. Issa served as Hezbollah’s representative in the nearby Kara area, where he was responsible for managing the Iranian proxy’s financial and military ties with local residents.
OBSERVATION - Israeli actions against Hezbollah will not be affected by a ceasefire in Gaza. I expect these operations to continue until the Lebanese army and govt fully stand up and remove Hezbollah.
Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025
Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro has announced the activation of the “Independence 200 Plan” in the Carabobo and La Guaira Integral Defense Zones of Northern Venezuela, in response to “aggressive maneuvers” by the United States in the Southern Caribbean, with the plan involving all elements of the National Bolivarian Armed Forces of Venezuela, including the Bolivarian National Militia.
As part of the plan, defensive and protective measures have been put in place at critical infrastructure sites, including airports and ports, in Caracas and across Northern Venezuela, specifically mentioning the mobilization of military forces to Maiquetía International Airport.
Earlier today, Buk-M2E Surface-to-Air Missile Systems were already spotted having been deployed at Generalísimo Francisco de Miranda Military Air Base in Caracas, while anti-tank concrete barriers were seen pre-staged on the Caracas - La Guaira Highway near Maiquetía Airport.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1976101516667912435?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - Efforts at the airbase / airports and other locations reflect a defensive method seen at Grenada where the airport runways were blocked off, preventing the arrival of follow on aircraft and troops to support the initial paratroopers of the 82d ABN.
At this stage, I don’t see a major US ground operation against Venezuela. Higher probability of bombing / missile strikes against inland narco-terrorist targets with possible seizures of naval facilities that have been supporting the drug flow via the ocean. The US has the forces available to execute such operations right now and could do so as ordered.
Time will tell if hamas upholds its end of the deal.
I don’t trust them so I’ll believe it when I see it.
Thanks Godzilla. Hamas, the proxy of Islam, is moving 2 steps forward one step back. In their 1400 year singleness of purpose long war, the success is evident around the world. Emboldened jihad continues apace. Everything (including life) that western civilization holds dear, is threatened with extermination. Take note of daily events.
Lots of us were surprised - and pleasantly so... taking out Iran's ability to build a nuke might have played a part too...
Potentially no post for this coming Sunday
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
UPCOMING -
- “No Kings 2.0”, 18 October 2025
***
Initial weekend forecast for protests and the like. Generally, planned protests will be relatively calm as in the past. Key trouble spots will remain in major cities, particularly Portland and Chicago around ICE facilities where after dark violence has become the norm.
Other potential violence can be expected from pro-hamas / pro-jihadi pop-up protests spinning off from recent ceasefire actions in Gaza. Many will try to promote that Hamas was the winner in the conflict, that Israel must accept a two state ‘solution’ or better yet (for the protestors view) be wiped off the map entirely. These protest will be local an quite likely near Jewish synagogues and other families like religious schools.
***
(FO) California Governor Gavin Newsom and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker threatened to leave the National Governors Association if the bipartisan group did not condemn the Trump administration’s federal surges into Democrat-controlled states. Pritzker said governors of all states should be “standing as one” against the idea that President Trump can federalize National Guard units against the will of governors.
OBSERVATION - This move could begin the process of these blue states setting up a united govt system to oppose the national one. Establishment of a parallel govt is a dangerous step towards CW2
***
PORTLAND -
In posters spread around the town, Portland Antifa announced they’re going to shine lasers at law enforcement helicopters this weekend.
OBSERVATION - Use of these are the types of high powered lasers rioters have used to damage the eyes of law enforcement during the 2020 riots. Four illegals were found and arrested after a laser attack on a fed helicopter just a couple weeks ago and another arrested earlier this week shining a laser at police.
***
Now that the local and national press have started to cover the Portland ICE area round-the-clock in reaction to the President, Antifa have devised a plan where they are encouraging one another to come in animal costumes.
The costumes serve the function of masking the violent extremism to make the direct action appear like a family-friendly gathering on camera, and to whitewash the past ultraviolence.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1976507813259010143?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
During the 2020 BLM-Antifa riots, this was the tactic Antifa used to make their violence seem less threatening on camera. They put the females at the front, and the rioters used lasers and projectiles at the back.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1976509848540828142?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - The narrative being pushed by civic leaders and Antifa are that the nightly riots are ‘peaceful’ and non threatening, a story that got filtered into the district judge’s decision against US deployment of OR NG to protect ICE and other govt facilities. Antifa is using lessons learned from 2020 to try to gain PR support here.
***
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals scheduled a hearing on the Trump administration’s appeal of Oregon-based Federal District Judge Karin Immergut’s ruling today. A three judge panel from the Ninth Circuit Court reversed Immergut’s ruling against federalizing the National Guard, but allowed the block on deploying troops in Oregon to stand.
CHICAGO -
U.S. District Judge April Perry has ruled that the Trump Administration’s deployment of federalized troops with the Texas National Guard to Chicago violated the 10th and 14th Amendments, as well as the Posse Comitatus Act, granting a temporary restraining order to prevent the further deployment and/or mobilization of Texas Guardsmen to assist with federal operations in Illinois.
This order comes as National Guardsmen are now on the ground outside the Broadview ICE facility near Chicago Per Border Patrol Commander Bovino, 150 National Guardmen are at that ONE ICE facility
OBSERVATIONS - Another contorted ruling by an activist judge who doesn’t
even get the constitution correct.
***
(FO) Illinois Federal District Judge Jeffrey Cummings ruled that ICE violated a Biden-era consent decree that placed restrictions on ICE agents conducting warrantless collateral arrests of illegal aliens in states under the jurisdiction of the Chicago, IL ICE Field Office. The consent decree was scheduled to end in May 2025, but Cummings ruled that the decree will remain in force until February 2026 and restrict how ICE agents can conduct collateral arrests during Operation Midway Blitz.
***
(FO) Illinois Federal District Judge Sara Ellis ruled yesterday that federal agents must limit the use of force for the next two weeks, in response to a lawsuit filed by protestors and journalists. Federal agents are restricted from using riot control weapons unless an immediate and serious threat of harm to a person exists, cannot use force to take someone to the ground unless an immediate threat exists, and cannot use gas canisters or compressed air launchers unless federal agents would otherwise be authorized to use lethal force.
OBSERVATION - This ruling will likely encourage Antifa et al to become more violent in its actions knowing that ICE and federal agents have their hands tied.
***
(FO) According to a Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) internal report, Chicago gangs were offered bounties for assassinating ICE agents and officials.
“Gangs in the Pilsen and Little Village neighborhoods have ‘spotters’ stationed on building rooftops, armed with guns, monitoring law enforcement activity in those areas. Communication is conducted via radio,” according to the report.
The report said ICE agents have a $5,000 bounty and high-ranking officials have a $50,000 bounty.
DHS said bounties and directions were allegedly directed from Mexico.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/crime/3844197/bounties-assassinate-ice-chicago-came-from-mexico/
OBSERVATION - Gang bangers were warning before the ICE operations in Chicago that they would target federal agents. Ongoing legal wrangling may well encourage these gangs to pursue lethal actions knowing that the CPD will not go after them in an aggressive manner.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.
***
During a roundtable event at the White House yesterday, President Donald Trump said he will direct Secretary of State Marco Rubio to designate Antifa groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO).
The FTO designation would unlock new authorities the Trump administration could use to target far left groups and their support networks. Under the Bush-era Executive Order 13224, the Trump administration can freeze the assets of any FTO as well as individuals or entities that provide support, services, or assistance to FTOs.
(FO) According to Trump administration officials, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller is playing a central role in the Trump administration’s effort to investigate domestic terror networks, which includes the FBI Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTF), the IRS, the Treasury Department, the Justice Department, and the Department of Homeland Security.
According to a White House document provided to Reuters, George Soros’ Open Society Foundations, ActBlue, and activist group Indivisible were named as donors or fundraisers for protests where violent incidents occurred since 2016. “The goal is to destabilize Soros’ network,” a White House Official added.
OBSERVATION - This will affect Antifa actions in CW2 realm bigly . Follow the money, honey
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. Army is canceling billions of dollars in traditional weapons programs and replacing them with commercial-style drones after an experimental brigade achieved three times the normal enemy kill rate using tactics borrowed directly from Ukraine’s drone revolution.
Col. Joshua Glonek’s 3,500-soldier brigade from the 10th Mountain Division killed three times as many enemy fighters as typical units during an 11-day winter training exercise in Germany, according to senior Army officials. The dramatic results came after the Army equipped his unit with approximately 150 drones and dozens of loitering munitions—the same consumer-grade technology dominating battlefields in Ukraine.
During the February training exercise at a U.S. Army base in Germany, Glonek’s brigade used inexpensive reconnaissance drones to spot roughly two dozen enemy vehicles hiding under trees. Within 10 minutes, his artillery battalion aimed all cannons at the target. A volley of about 144 simulated artillery rounds followed, enough to destroy most of the vehicles.
The results impressed Gen. Randy George, the Army’s chief of staff, who touted the brigade’s success to Congress. The training demonstrated that Army formations were “capable of rapidly improving their lethality,” he told lawmakers, according to the NY Times.
But the real story goes deeper. The exercise revealed that about 90% of the brigade’s fire missions began with a drone finding the enemy and monitoring the kill. “We had more targets than we had assets to shoot them, just because the drones were so much more capable,” Glonek said.
The drone success is forcing unprecedented budget cuts. Gen. George eliminated the M-10 Booker light tank after spending more than $1 billion developing it. The reason? Military planners concluded it could be easily destroyed by a $500 to $1,000 kamikaze drone.
The Army also slashed its Joint Light Tactical Vehicle order from 50,000 units to just 18,000. The 7-ton armored troop carrier was designed to survive roadside bombs in Iraq and Afghanistan, but makes less sense in drone-dominated warfare.
Savings are being redirected to the Infantry Squad Vehicle—a dune-buggy-style troop carrier with nine seats, an engine, and roll bars. Instead of armor, it relies on speed and ability to move under tree cover to evade drone attacks.
OBSERVATIONS - Military planners need to really look closely at the rapidly evolving tactics and weapons of the Ukraine war. Then plan appropriately.
Big key here is ‘commercial grade’. The procurement side has killed many good ideas with the desire for ‘military grade’ which explodes the cost of these items by orders of magnitude.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Democrats digging holes -
“Chuck Schumer’s disgusting claim that “every day gets better“ is a sickening display of elitist indifference as the Democrat Shutdown plunges hardworking Americans into anxiety, despair, and financial ruin. His arrogance lays bare the Democrats’ sick betrayal of service members missing paychecks, families turning to food pantries to survive, small businesses teetering on the brink, and travelers facing excruciating delays.”
OBSERVATION - Democrats may think that hurting the American people is good for them in this standoff. I don’t think that is playing like that across the country.
***
The FBI has terminated two special agents linked to Jack Smith’s investigations into President Donald Trump, with personnel action taken against a third. These moves come amid growing scrutiny over the bureau’s role in what many see as a politically motivated operation against Trump and his supporters.
Details emerged this week that the agents were part of “Arctic Frost,” an FBI probe launched in April 2022 that laid the groundwork for Smith’s federal cases against Trump. That investigation zeroed in on Trump’s handling of classified documents and efforts surrounding the 2020 election, culminating in the January 6 events. Revelations show the FBI obtained phone toll records from eight Republican senators during this probe, tracking numbers dialed and call durations without content.
https://thelibertydaily.com/jack-smiths-dominoes-start-falling-two-fbi-agents/
OBSERVATION - Accountability time, not political retribution. Since they had the gall to do it to senators, just think what they were willing to do to you simply for your political views.
On a side issue, I expect that many of the FBI agents that were mixed in the J6 protests will also be on the curb for their willingness to instigate violence and rioting.
***
Speaking of accountability - A grand jury has indicted New York Attorney General Letitia James on a fraud charge, a person familiar with the matter told The Associated Press on Thursday.
The evidence, produced publicly, is very clear that she deliberately misrepresented property for loans and other govt related reasons. I wouldn’t be surprise if more charges come out sooner than later.
TRUMP Watch –
Nobel peace prize went to an unknown Venezuelan individual who has opposed Maderao regime from the shadows. Not surprising given the ultra leftists that are on the committee. Remember, they gave the prize to 0bama who did absolutely NOTHING to further peace.
Illegal Immigration –
A lot of focus continues to be on big city efforts.
Phillipines –
Washington and Manila kicked off the latest iteration of the Sama Sama naval drills on Monday in the vicinity of a western Philippine province located near South China Sea hotspots.
Sama Sama, a Tagalog word that translates to “together,” originally began as a series of maritime security drills in 2017. Since then, the U.S.-Philippine co-hosted exercise has grown to include more combat activities, as well as anti-piracy and humanitarian missions, amid Manila’s naval modernization efforts.
Participants and observers for 2025’s iterations include the U.S., Philippines, Australia, Japan, France, the United Kingdom, Thailand, Italy, Canada and New Zealand. BRP Antonio Luna (FF-151), BRP Valentin Diaz (PS-177), USS Cincinnati (LCS-20) and JS Ōnami (DD-111) are among the vessels confirmed to participate in the exercise, which is set to run Oct. 6-17.
While most activities and location areas remain unclear, a Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force news release stated that Onami will hold a tactical exercise to improve anti-surface warfare capabilities with U.S. and Philippine forces.
https://news.usni.org/2025/10/08/u-s-and-philippine-forces-drill-near-south-china-sea-flashpoint
OBSERVATION - Growth in these exercises to counter Chinese aggressive actions in the region.
***
Manila provided supplies and protection to Philippine fishermen against a fleet of Chinese patrol ships, warships and aircraft operating in the South China Sea near two disputed maritime features on Tuesday.
The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) and Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) dispatched a total of 15 cutters and offshore vessels early Tuesday to resupply and escort fishermen operating in the vicinity of the Scarborough and Sabina shoals, according to an agency press release. The assistance mission falls under the country’s Kadiwa Initiative, which aims to bolster Filipino fishery output in the disputed waters amid Chinese harassment and supply constraints.
The deployment included the country’s largest cutters, BRP Teresa Magbanua (MRRV-9701) and BRP Melchora Aquino (MRRV-9702).
Chinese forces responded by deploying 34 cutters and maritime militia vessels around the two shoals and engaged in “intimidation tactics,” according to the PCG. Footage from the PCG shows Chinese forces shadowing and closing in on the agency’s vessels.
Despite the Chinese presence, around 100 Philippine vessels received fuel, food and other supplies to extend their fishing operations in the South China Sea, reads the PCG’s news release.
OBSERVATION - I’m becoming more and more convinced that the first shots of a war with China will not break out with a move on Taiwan, but from eventually combat against the Philippines.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Russian military strength in 2020 was third to China and the United States. Russia had nearly a million active duty troops and about 12,000 tanks. Most of them are older models. By 2025 Russia was still number 3, but three years of war in Ukraine had destroyed most of Russia’s tanks, killed or wounded about a million soldiers and caused over a million Russian military age men to flee the country. Ever-growing Western economic sanctions have weakened the economy and by 2025 nearly all the national cash reserves had been spent keeping the economy going. Between now and 2030 Russian and Western economists agree that the Russian economy is in bad shape, a condition made worse since the government has converted it to a war economy, meaning civilian and infrastructure needs are neglected to support the war effort.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htworld/articles/2025101061552.aspx#gsc.tab=0
***
A Russian Navy Pacific Fleet surface group is in the Philippine Sea en route to Southeast Asia, according to the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF).
The JMSDF tracked the Russian ships Sunday as they passed between two Japanese southwest islands to enter the Philippine Sea.
The Russian Pacific Fleet routinely deploys to Southeast Asia to conduct joint exercises, training, engagement and port visits with countries in the region, except for Singapore, which imposed sanctions on Russia in February 2022 over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In retaliation, Russia in March of the same year placed Singapore on its list of unfriendly countries. Russian Navy ships no longer call into Singapore as the force had done in the past.
Russian Pacific Fleet deployments to Southeast Asia are sometimes coupled with deployments to the Middle East, as was the case with the last deployment to Southeast Asia. However, there has been no indication that the current deployment will include a voyage to the Middle East.
https://news.usni.org/2025/10/09/russian-navy-surface-group-sailing-to-southeast-asia
NUCLEAR THREATS –
ISW. The Kremlin continued its reflexive control campaign aimed at deterring the United States from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, including by threatening to deploy Russian missiles to Cuba. The Kremlin is trying to invoke memories of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis to threaten the United States.
ALSO - There are rumors that Russia has moved some nuclear weapons into Venezuela as a counter to US actions in the region.
Economic Impact –
Russia’s metallurgical industry is facing its worst crisis since the 1990s, Moscow Times reports. Due to plummeting demand, high interest rates, and collapsing output, steel plants are cutting staff and considering four-day workweeks. Sanctions have wiped out a third of exports, and production is down over 10% year-on-year. Even the arms industry’s demand can’t offset the decline.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1976562167865340129?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - A point of sanctions are special metals necessary to strengthen steel for military purposes. Those metals have been hard for Russia to come by due to sanctions.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with increasing rain across the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reported on the overnight missile and drone attack.
Shot down:
405/465 Shahed and other type drones
1/2 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
4/14 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
9/12 Iskander-K cruise missiles
1/4 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
In addition, 4 missiles did not reach their targets (lost locationally, crash sites are being clarified).
Emergency blackouts have been implemented in parts of Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions following Russia’s mass strike, DTEK reports. Power cuts are ongoing in Brovary and Boryspil districts, while in Kryvyi Rih, rolling outages are underway. Critical infrastructure is switching to generators, according to local officials. Additional power outages across Donetsk, Kharkiv, Poltava, Odesa, and more.
Russian losses per 10/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1120 men
+5 tanks
+14 AFVs
+13 artillery
Russia is heavily counterattacking near Dobropillia after earlier Ukrainian gains. Yesterday, they launched multiple mechanized assaults on Vodymyrivka, deploying at least 16 vehicles, including IFVs, tanks, and motorcycles, and landed a large infantry force of 50–75 troops in the village. Heavy fighting is still ongoing.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Heavy drone/missile strikes on Ukraine power grid, like Russia did last year. This has spurred talk of Ukraine targeting power production around the Moscow region, so that they can feel the same pain. Ukraine has a lot more capability in that realm than last year and Russia has shown great weakness in protecting its petroleum industry, now poetically having to spread available assets even further.
Spike in Russian armor losses, reflecting increased combat on the ground. The ‘gray zones’ on the battlefield continue to be lethal kill zones for Russian equipment and soldiers. FPV drones supported by surveillance drones continue to rule the battlefield.
Europe / NATO General –
NATO’s annual nuclear deterrence exercise, Steadfast Noon, will be hosted by the Netherlands and start next week, with 71 aircraft from 14 nations taking part, officials from the Western military alliance said on Friday.
The exercise “sends a clear signal to any potential adversary that we will and can protect and defend all allies against all threats,” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said.
Jim Stokes, NATO’s director of nuclear policy, told reporters at alliance headquarters in Brussels that Steadfast Noon was “routine” and “not directed at any country”.
“It’s also not linked to any real-world events,” he said.
Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level ADVISORY - OCT 10, 2025 - NEW
Pakistan’s Air Force conducted an air strike against Noor Wali Mehsud, a high-ranking member of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, in Kabul, Afghanistan this week. The Pakistani Defense minister warned Afghanistan that strikes would continue against militants and their backers.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Both sides have finalized their agreements to the Phase 1 plan. 72 hour clock is now ticking.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The United States is sending about 200 troops to Israel to help support and monitor the ceasefire deal in Gaza as part of a team that includes partner nations, nongovernmental organizations, and private sector players, U.S. officials said Thursday.
The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss details not authorized for release, said U.S. Central Command is going to establish a “civil-military coordination center” in Israel that will help facilitate the flow of humanitarian aid as well as logistical and security assistance into the territory wracked by two years of war.
OBSERVATION - The US is not the only country that will be sending forces into Gaza, but will be the biggest and directing the actions of all.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Overnight, the Israeli government approved the ceasefire agreement in Gaza.
The Israeli army officially announces that the ceasefire agreement has come into effect as of 12:00 PM local time, 20 minutes ago. Israeli forces have taken up positions along the updated deployment lines (Yellow) in accordance with the ceasefire framework and the return of the hostages
Reports from Gaza indicate that IDF tanks have pulled back from the coastal road in Nuseirat, opening the way for residents to move freely between the northern and southern parts of the Strip.
Large numbers of Gazans are making their way back to northern Gaza after the Israeli withdrawal
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Authorities warned of a possible terrorist infiltration in the West Bank settlement Kohav HaShahar on Friday morning.
A report of a suspected attempt to break into a house in Kohav HaShahar was received by the IDF earlier this morning, the military confirmed. Security forces were dispatched to the scene to conduct searches for the suspected intruder in the area.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-870007
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Iranian-backed groups like the Houthis in Yemen use Western cellphones to track merchant ships in the Red Sea. They do this by pinging ships for their GPS locations. Even on warships, where communications are encrypted, sailors’ phones are not. This allows ships to be tracked and attacked with drone speedboats armed with explosives, anti-ship missiles, or naval mines.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htiw/articles/2025100963910.aspx#gsc.tab=0
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Let me clear something up - this war is far from being over. Hamas has pledged to remove Israel off the map, one way or another. Many expect them to fully resist the implementation of Phase 2 - their disarmament and total removal from power. For right now, the euphoria of the hostage release is obscuring that fact.
If Hamas keeps its word, all the living hostages should be returned to Israel by Monday afternoon (Israel time) at the latest.
There are some nasty rumors that the vehicles carrying the hostages back to Israeli hands will be mobbed by Gazans. One view is that they will try to prevent the release and ‘recapture’ them. This is fully possible and they did it with previous handovers, though they didn’t try to recapture them. Also unconfirmed is that Israel has warned Hamas that any attempt by these mobs to try to prevent the repatriation of the hostages will be met by lethal means.
So far there have been no serious violations of the ceasefire. Uncontrolled flow of gazans back to the north may well contain Hamas forces moving under the cover of the masses, which may in the future become an issue.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Iran warns that “the ceasefire in Gaza may be the reason for the collapse of the ceasefire in other places,” according to an advisor to Supreme Leader Khamenei.
OBSERVATION - Rather vague statement, but may be one of concern that Israel will be free to direct more pressure on Iran with possibly more strikes on attempts to rebuild their nuclear program.
Central / South America General-
Peru’s Congress voted overnight to remove former President Dina Boluarte (a socialist) and replace her with President of the Congress Jose Jeri (Christian democrat) after several members of Congress were injured in a concert shooting. Jeri immediately promised to “declare a war on crime.”
OBSERVATION - A rightward shift in Peruvian politics. Reflects other recent rightward shifts in central and south America.
Thanks Godzilla
Again, it is likely that I wont be posting tomorrow.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
UPCOMING -
- “No Kings 2.0”, 18 October 2025
***
The weekend forecast for protests and the like. Generally, planned protests are still expected to be relatively calm as in the past. Key trouble spots will remain in major cities, particularly Portland and Chicago around ICE facilities where after dark violence has become the norm.
***
CHICAGO -
Four anti-ICE protesters were arrested at a chaotic demonstration outside a DHS facility in Chicago on Friday after a federal judge blocked President Trump’s deployment of National Guard troops to the Windy City.
Illinois State police in riot gear clashed with an unruly crowd near the ICE facility in Broadview as protests continue to rage in Chicago in the wake of Trump’s illegal immigration crackdown, WLS reported.
Friday’s demonstration came a day after protesters Ray Collins and Jocelyn Robledo — who were carrying loaded weapons when they clashed with ICE officers outside the same Broadview ICE facility on Sept. 27 — had their felony charges dropped after a local grand jury refused to indict them.
This will get worse, long before it gets better.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/10/the-battle-for-chicago-rages.php#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - this alone should silence the narrative that these protests are ‘peaceful’’ What is disgusting is that this grand jury refused to indict these two Antifaites. Rule of law is rapidly breaking down here and in other large cities, where the residents for some perverted reason prefer violence and crime over making the streets safer.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Oil prices drop below $60/barrel for the first time since May 2025.
This comes just one day after President Trump said gas prices will fall to $2.00/gallon.
https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1976639792000729394?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - Lower prices will help lower transportation costs for products here and take the edge off of any inflation.
POLITICAL FRONT –
House Speaker Mike Johnson revealed on Fox News this morning that the Democrats will likely keep the government shut down for more than another week until after a scheduled “No Kings” protest against the Trump Administration on October 18.
“It’s being told to us that they won’t be able to reopen the government until after that rally because they can’t face their rabid base.”
OBSERVATION - Likely speculation on Johnson’s part, though the logic makes sense. A big driver forcing the democrats hand has been the very vocal leftists in the party. If Schumer allows it to go past the “No King 2” protests, then the leftists can vent, having a ‘cause’, then pull the rug out to get things restarted. Bad point for Schumer and the good point for Trump is that this additional week will give Trump more time to execute his govt shrinkage efforts and maintain the narrative that the democrats are doing this to gain favor of their vocal leftist elements - over the needs of the country.
***
The White House began conducting mass layoffs on Friday amid a prolonged government shutdown, including slashing an entire department under the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
The entire staff at the Community Financial Institutions Fund (CDFI) received a layoff notice on Friday, an administration official confirmed to the Daily Caller News Foundation. The program’s elimination comes as White House officials repeatedly warned that the administration would pursue mass firings and budget cuts if Democrats did not reverse course and reopen the government.
The CDFI fund was targeted because the program illegally doled out awards based on race and espoused left-wing gender ideology and radical climate policies, according to the administration official.
The fund awarded $4.9 million to the “Local Initiatives Support Corporation,” which publishes material condemning “whiteness” in community development. It has also supported LGBTQ clinics that provide so-called “gender-affirming hormone therapy” to clients “of any age,” and granted $6.7 million to the Clearinghouse CDFI, which hosted a fashion show promoting transgenderism.
RELATED -
Unions representing scores of federal workers have asked a judge to intervene and halt the government shutdown-related layoffs that the Trump administration announced Friday.
According to Bloomberg, the emergency request was filed with U.S. District Judge Susan Illston in San Francisco after Russell Vought, director of the Office of Management and Budget, posted about the firings on social media.
“The RIFs have begun,” Vought wrote Friday afternoon on X, using the abbreviation for reductions in force.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/government-shutdown-layoffs-labor-unions/2025/10/10/id/1229880/
MORE RELATED -
The Trump administration revealed in a court filing that more than 4,000 federal workers were fired Friday as a result of the ongoing partial government shutdown.
The mass layoffs will affect government workers in at least seven Cabinet-level agencies, according to the document filed in the District Court for the Northern District of California, where federal employee labor unions are suing to stop the Trump administration from downsizing amid the lapse in federal funding.
The bulk of the layoffs took place at the Treasury Department and the Department of Health and Human Services, where approximately 1,446 employees and up to 1,200, respectively, were axed.
The Department of Education fired 466 employees; the Department of Housing and Urban Development let go of 442 employees; the Department of Commerce terminated 315 employees; the Department of Energy cut 187 employees; and the Department of Homeland Security laid off 176 employees.
The Justice Department filing notes that other agencies have issued “a general ‘intent to RIF’ notice.”
The Environmental Protection Agency, for example, notified approximately 20-30 employees that they may be fired in the future.
The United States Patent and Trademark Office separately issued shutdown-related RIF notices to 126 employees on Oct. 1.
OBSERVATION - Expect another round of massive court cases, with rogue district judges once again trying to usurp the Executive power with their judicial activism. The law is pretty straight forward on Trump’s actions in his favor. It hasn’t been applied in the past because politicians feared the political fallout. It wont be finalized until the USSC likely has to rule on it. Appeals courts likely will side with Trump. Of note the current lawsuit was filed in San Fran - 9th circuit territory, probably hoping that there are enough hard liberals in that court to back up the liberal district judge.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump should be departing soon for Israel.
Illegal Immigration –
A lot of focus continues to be on big city efforts. I’m seeing unconfirmed estimates that now up to 3 million illegals have departed the US, many self deporting.
China -
President Donald Trump on Friday said that the United States will impose an additional 100 percent tariffs on Chinese goods and export controls on critical software starting on Nov. 1.
Trump accused Beijing of adopting “aggressive” export controls on nearly all of its products, referring to the Chinese regime’s recent rule changes aimed at restricting shipments of rare earth elements.
He warned that tariffs could be implemented sooner, depending on Beijing’s reaction. He also said China’s new export controls, which would affect all countries, appeared to be a strategy devised by Beijing years ago.
“It is impossible to believe that China would have taken such an action, but they have, and the rest is History,” he wrote.
Items containing more than 0.1 percent of rare earth ingredients sourced from China will require export licenses, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said in a statement. The curbs are set to take effect on Dec. 1.
Rare earths, a group of 17 elements critical for products such as electric vehicles, military jets, and submarines, have become a key issue in the U.S.–China trade talks.
OBSERVATION - China surprised the world with these additional restrictions on key metals and related. It has been vocalized loud and long that they were in the process of corralling the global supply of these rare earth metals, to likely use as a hammer against the rest of the world.
The key thing to watch are any impacts to their economy, which so far have been hurt by previous tariffs. Now with an 100% tariff being levied, it will place China in a difficult place where they will almost have to retaliate in some manner either with more restriction on rare earths and the like or add tariffs themselves.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with increasing rain across the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
During the night of October 10–11, Russia launched 78 attack UAVs (Shahed, Geran, and others) from multiple directions including Oryol, Millerovo, Kursk, and occupied Crimea. Ukraine’s air defense, using EW, drone units, and mobile fire groups, shot down or suppressed 54 of them. 21 drones hit six locations.
Russian forces struck energy infrastructure in Odesa region, causing power outages across several settlements.
Russian losses per 11/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1060 men
+1 tank
+6 AFVs
+21 artillery
+1 MLRS
Ukrainian Air Assault Forces repelled a major Russian assault on the Dobropillia axis. Russians attempted to capture Vodymyrivka and Sofiivka using 6 tanks, ~40 IFVs, 40+ vehicles, and several hundred troops. Ukraine destroyed 3 tanks, 13 IFVs, 41 vehicles, and eliminated around 100 personnel. Vodymyrivka is now being cleared.
Ukraine drones attacked Bashneft oil refinery in Ufa
Analysis and Future Operations —
A slight easing in the drone attacks, but a substantial number got thru anyway to hit power related targets.
The reports of the scale of fighting in Vodymyrivka and Sofiivka are a little eye opening. For the most part, Russian unit attacks have been on a much smaller scale, hoping to probe into a weak spot in the Ukraine defenses. In this instance, Russia tried to force it with a much larger force supported to a degree with tanks and APCs. Final results will show up on tomorrow’s casualty summary. This attack also shows another thing - Russia still has great difficulty in organizing a good combined arms attack with support from other units. They consistently throw these forces essentially with little support against Ukraine defenses, and nearly every time it seems that Ukraine drones and artillery chew them up. Russia still has no real good answer to Ukraine drones.
Belarus -
Ministry of Defense of Belarus: troops were put on the highest readiness alert due to President order to check combat readiness
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Clock ticking on hostage release
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Gateway Pundit: “The official stressed that no U.S. military personnel will be deploying to Gaza, but that 200 U.S. servicemembers will be operating from inside Israel. In addition to monitoring the ceasefire, the coordination center will help with the flow of humanitarian, logistic and security assistance into Gaza, according to the official.”
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Thursday that he had instructed the Israel Defense Forces to respond with “great force” to any threat or attack by the Hamas terrorist group during the interim stage following the Cabinet’s approval of the ceasefire deal.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Houthis in Yemen threatened new attacks against Israel on Saturday following overnight Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon, even as a ceasefire in Gaza took effect after Israel approved a hostage-release deal brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Senior Houthi official Hazam al-Assad, who frequently posts in Hebrew on the social platform X, accused Israel of aggression, writing that “Zionist aggression struck the al-Musayla area before dawn. It seems they want to go back into their shelters.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/h1u25dwtgg#autoplay
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Many are holding their breath to see if Hamas will follow thru on its end of the agreement and release ALL living hostages by the end of Monday, local Israel time. If they refuse to do so, many of their allies will wash their hands as Israel moves forward to finish them off.
Ceasefire movements of Gazans back to the north would interfere with any resumption of Israeli operations as they would want them cleared out before attacking. It took weeks to get Gaza City nearly emptied. Resumption of fighting would result in mass migration back to the south. Buried in this mob are likely Hamas fighters using the crowd to redeploy to these northern portions of Gaza, making Israel’s operations a little more difficult.
Then again, many of these gazans will be going back to rubble, and Israel likely will encourage them to work to leave Gaza altogether.
International components of the ceasefire agreement are quickly moving into place, needing to do so before the hostage release if possible.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Iran is preparing to file a legal case against Israel and the United States at international courts over the June airstrikes that hit Iranian territory, a senior government official said on Saturday
Lebanon -
10 Israeli airstrikes target Wadi al-Najariyah in southern Lebanon. The Israeli army says it targeted Hezbollah infrastructure in Israel/Lebanon. Israeli airstrikes targeted bulldozers and other engineering equipment being used to restore Hezbollah bases / facilities.
OBSERVATION - The Lebanese govt has whined about this strike to a degree, but the underlying issues are still present- Hezbollah is actively trying to restore its presence in the south and the Lebanese govt and military are not stopping it in any meaningful way.
Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025
The Venezuelan government has formally requested an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council to address recent U.S. military actions in waters off its coast, citing “mounting threats” and the expectation of an “armed attack.”
China has been working at cornering the 'rare earth elements' market for at least the last 15 years. This is NOT a one off - it means any country that wants to develop it's technology has to go through China. We've had plenty of warning. Trump needs to quickly remove restrictions on mining rare earth minerals. And we need to build large transformers here and expand our construction of chip manufacturers here in the US for the larger chips. We might be able to get short term deals from China but they'll maintain control. We need to move on this stuff now... Think what it would be like in a time of war...It's a mess and could get a lot worse.
Quick report rather than a biggie tomorrow.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
UPCOMING -
- “No Kings 2.0”, 18 October 2025
***
The weekend so far has been relatively calm as in the past. Key trouble spots will remain in major cities, particularly Portland and Chicago around ICE facilities where after dark violence has become the norm. Threat of violence against ICE / DHS facilities is growing.
***
Overnight, two individuals were arrested in Dallas for shining lasers and firing weapons towards a Texas DPS (state trooper) helicopter.
***
CHICAGO -
A large clash erupted at Chicago ICE facility between rioters and Illinois police yesterday.
Illinois State Troopers stood shoulder-to-shoulder with ICE, pushing back the chaos outside Broadview’s detention center near Chicago.
***
Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson’s security now includes 150 Chicago Police Department Officers
- Average officer salary is $150k
- 150 officers cost $22.5M in base salaries + benefits
With overtime Brandon Johnson’s security is estimated to cost taxpayers $33.7 million PER YEAR
His own private army
***
PORTLAND -
More arrests from violent attacks on the Portland ICE facility .
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
A media blitz to depict ANTIFA as just an ‘idea’ and not an actual organization continues to be promulgated by MSM and antifa supporters. At this time it doesn’t seem to be gaining traction.
Also part of a propaganda blitz is the narrative that the Antifa actions are peaceful and nonviolent. MSM pushing the narrative with lots of photos taken during the day of people caring signs and chanting slogans - even wearing animal ‘inflatable’ costumes to soften the image. This narrative has also been pushed hard on social media.
However, when the sun goes down, Antifa elements show up in black bloc to continual their nightly attacks on the facilities absent the smiley cameras of the media.
Yesterday, it seems Antifa let the mask slip thinking that they had sufficiently deflected criticism. In both Portland and Chicago DAY TIME violence spiked upward as the weekend terrorists showed up. Illinois state police had to respond to calls for help by ICE and in Portland more daytime arrests of those assaulting federal agents.
Lawfare continues regarding deployment of NG to both cities and it seems the USSC will be forced to step in to get these activist judges snapped back into line.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Gold and silver are expected to continue to climb, while oil continues to drop.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Nimitz is now operating in the Southern Indian Ocean (via @USNINews fleet tracker), creating a gap in carrier coverage of the Persian Gulf region.
The Ford CSG is reportedly steaming eastward across the Med towards the ME, but no clear info if they will be coming under CENTCOM control as a replacement for the Nimitz.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
More evidence coming out that Pfizer doctored its reports on how long the spike protein would remain active in recipients of the wuhan jab. Removed evidence that the protein would remain in the system for years and be transmitted to others.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Trump is directing US DOW Secretary Pete Hegseth to pay military personnel despite the federal government shutdown. Funds being redirected from research and development accounts.
***
Dominion Voting systems has been acquired by founder and chairman of Liberty Vote Scott Leiendecker, in a deal which included dropping lawsuits against conservatives.
Leiendecker, former GOP election reform advocate, has officially become the sole owner of Dominion after making the deal contingent on dropping several remaining lawsuits against prominent conservatives and One America News Network (OANN).
OBSERVATIONS - Reports that democrats are now calling for the banishment of Dominion systems from being used for voting. Suddenly democrats are concerned about the security of the system.
***
Hard layoffs and closures of entire agencies is expected to accelerate this next week as democrats continue to filibuster the CR thinking that they are winning the hearts and minds of citizens.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump’s rapid solution to paying our military and keeping other services functional has sucked a lot of the oxygen out of the democrats attempts to blame Trump for lack of funding. It is now doubled back onto being a democrat caused crisis.
Illegal Immigration –
Reports that between arrests / deportations and self deportation, now over 3 million illegals are believed to have left the country.
China -
China beginning to feel pushback over its sudden control of rare earth materials by numerous other countries.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Peskov claims that long-range missiles like the Tomahawk could carry nuclear warheads and warns that Russia can’t know whether Ukraine might use a “dirty bomb.” He questions how Russia should interpret such launches, saying Western experts “must understand this.”
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-50 degree range with widely scattered showers
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 118 drones and one Kh-31 missile at Ukraine overnight. Air defense, electronic warfare, and mobile units shot down or suppressed 103 drones across the north, east, and south.
Russian losses per 12/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1240 men
+1 tank
+10 artillery
Ukrainian units of the 24th Separate Assault Battalion “Aidar” together with the 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade have liberated the village of Mali Shcherbaky in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
NOTE - Today’s numbers do not seem to reflect the reports of the blunting of a fairly large Russian armor assault yesterday.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Low part of the drone/missile cycle for Russia.
Daily casualties continue on the rise, with these number not being seen at this level for several months. Ukraine and Russians forces have been reclaiming and gaining land with what seems to be a more aggressive, across the front successful effort by Ukraine.
With Gaza out of the way for now, Trump will likely focus more on the Ukraine/Russian war, following a newer, two pronged approach. First is to provide longer range munitions to put the hurt to Russian strategic assets like the petroleum sector and war related factories in range. Second will likely be ratcheting up sanctions with the help of EU.
Russia seems to be expanding its efforts to intimidate NATO and eastern European nations, first using drones and now aggressive displays along borders - see Estonia below. These are designed to try to cow Europe into reducing support for Ukraine.
Europe / NATO General –
Estonia’s Police and Border Guard Board has temporarily closed the Saatse Boot passage after detecting increased Russian border activity. The narrow Estonian road briefly cuts through Russian territory, where vehicles may normally pass without stopping. Authorities say more Russian patrols than usual were seen Friday, prompting the closure to prevent provocations. Extra patrols are deployed, and traffic is being rerouted.
OBSERVATION - Provocation by Russia to put fear into Estonia. Putin has been unable to break the large status quo along the front lines in Ukraine and would be foolish to attempt any military action against any of these baltic nations. But such displays have worked to keep these nations off balance.
Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level WARNING - OCT 12, 2025 - UPDATED
A great deal of fog of war is currently over the extent of conflict along their shared border. Here is some info for consideration which is likely accurate do a degree.
Afghanistan’s 201st Khalid bin Walid Army Corps has launched retaliatory strikes on Pakistani outposts in Nangarhar and Kunar following Pakistan’s recent airstrike on Kabul. Heavy artillery fire now reported along the Gavi–Kurram border, the Pakistan-based Khorasan Diary reports
Afghan Defense Ministry announces the end of retaliatory operations against Pakistani forces along the Durand Line. They warn of a strong response if Pakistan violates Afghan borders again.
Taliban Forces seen heading in the direction of the border with Pakistan, amidst ongoing cross-border clashes between the Islamic National Army of Afghanistan and the Pakistani Army.
Federal Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi strongly condemns the incidents of unprovoked firing by Afghanistan on Pakistani territories.
The firing by Afghan forces on civilian populations is a blatant violation of international laws.
Multiple Afghanistani posts have been attacked by Pakistan’s artillery fire, with footage shared directly from field HQ and validated by the network. Including missile strikes on Afghan military positions.
Pakistan’s security forces conducted a precision strike that destroyed the Afghan Taliban’s Barikot base camp across the Chitral sector. Preliminary reports of multiple casualties at the site
OBSERVATION - This isn’t really an even fight. Pakistan has the hardware and experience edge. They are not fighting on the ground within Afghanistan where the Taliban would have an advantage.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Clock ticking on hostage release
- Hamas seizes areas after Israeli withdrawals and immediately begins killing civilians suspected of aiding Israel.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Financial Times: Hamas began regaining control of the Gaza Strip hours after reaching a ceasefire agreement with Israel.
Hamas will not attend the Gaza peace deal signing ceremony, an official has reportedly told AFP
***
Hamas might not return all the bodies of the deceased hostages in Gaza as part of President Donald Trump’s peace deal, according to Israeli officials.
Three unnamed Israeli sources reportedly told CNN this week that the Israeli government knows, due to its intelligence reports, that Hamas might not know the location of and is unable to retrieve the bodies of the 28 deceased hostages.
https://www.christianpost.com/news/hamas-might-not-return-all-deceased-hostages-report.html
***
The terrorist organizations – Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) – opposed “foreign guardianship” over the Gaza Strip in a joint statement on Friday, according to Reuters. The three militant groups in Gaza emphasized that local governance of the Strip is a “purely internal Palestinian matter.”
https://allisraelnews.com/hamas-opposes-foreign-guardianship-in-gaza-refuses-to-disarm
***
Videos posted to social media show Hamas has re-entered areas vacated by Israeli forces in Gaza, reportedly detaining and executing individuals accused of collaborating with Israel or opposing the group.
Sources in Gaza say Hamas internal security launched tonight a large-scale operation to crackdown on dissent in Gaza City. At least 15 members of the Dughmush clan were killed, with intense clashes in the Tel Al-Hawa & Sabra neighborhoods. Hamas vows to execute those it arrested.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Hamas’ aggressive take over of areas once controlled by Israel should give its European and arab supporters pause. Following years of accusing Israel of atrocities, they are silent over Hamas’ wanton murder of gazans.
Hamas has become even more outspoken about refusing to turn in their weapons and in parallel, refusing to step away from ruling Gaza. This is a big red flag that negotiators of the current ceasefire are allowing to pass. As long as Hamas stays in power, there will be no peace in the region.
With these signals that Hamas isn’t serous about the longer term implications of the peace plan - so called Phase 2 - it becomes even more critical that all the hostages are released as promised.
It would not be beyond Hamas’ MO to play games with the release at the last minute. And I fear that the celebrations are premature. Call me a pessimist, but history in the region speaks against current hopes that Hamas will keep their promises.
Happy Columbus Day
Israeli hostages are free
And the Redoubt feels the first real storm of the season.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
UPCOMING -
- “No Kings 2.0”, 18 October 2025
***
Pretty much standard weekend for protests. Things were heated as usual in Portland, Chicago and even Seattle. Use of lasers by Antifa et al were prominent. Even medical helicopters were prevented in some cases from flying over downtown Portland due to laser attacks.
Feeling empowered by the local successes of PR claims to non-violent protests, Antifa et al responded by stepping up violence.
***
On the hit parade this weekend is the latest “No Kings” protest / rally. Organizers are expecting 10 million to turn out across the country. Previous protests, though vocal, have not really moved the needle in their direction and away from Trump. The main rallies are expected to be peaceful, though in some areas I expect after dark violence and vandalism directed towards ICE / DHS facilities.
I wonder now that the Treasury dept and FBI are bearing down on the supporters of leftist rioting, how heavily hit will the organizers of “No Kings” , primarily Indivisible be?
***
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said Sunday that Americans “should be forcefully rising up” against the federal government following the indictment of New York Attorney General Letitia James on federal bank-fraud charges.Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said Sunday that Americans “should be forcefully rising up” against the federal government following the indictment of New York Attorney General Letitia James on federal bank-fraud charges.
His comments came during an interview with MSNBC host Al Sharpton.
OBSERVATION - This is not the first time Schumer has incited violence. We’ve seen what this ‘rising up’ is composed of -
- 2020 Floyd/BLM riots
- Arson of Tesla vehicles and dealerships
- Assassination attempt on Trump
- Assassination of Charlie Kirk
And this is just the tip of the iceberg.
Some commentators are trying to toss him a mulligan saying he’s just under pressure from extremists like AOC. He’s a big boy and should know full well that his words can cause others to act in violence. He has no excuse, AOC or otherwise.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Apparently crypto took a big hit when Trump announced 100% tariffs on China. Same with stocks, but they have recovered today.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Reports that some of the TX NG that were deployed to Chicago were not in compliance with height/weight requirement and were sent home.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
POLITICAL FRONT –
I’ve noted the term OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) loop in previous postings, its and intelligence and operational term. Successful elements have a tighter OODA loop, meaning their opponents cannot react quickly enough to changes in the situation before the situation changes again. Trump and his team are a prime example of this principle in action. Trump commands the news cycle, moving forward with action, probes and trolls the left with other comments keeping them off balance. By the time the democrats make some kind of response, Trump is onto his next agenda item, leaving the left floundering for response. Today it is the govt shutdown. First by sombreros, now by quickly shifting funds to keep military paid and other critical feature funded, items that the left thought they had caught Trump on and could cash out on to gain the upper PR hand. The response caught them flat footed, showing that the democrats don’t care about Americans.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump trumped the arab summit in Egypt for failing to invite Netanyahu to the conference on Gaza. Result is the flew with Trump on AF1 to the conference.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
The delivery of Tomahawks could end badly for everyone, and most of all, for Trump himself, - Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Medvedev threatens the President of U.S.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-50 degree range with widely scattered showers
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine was attacked by 82 Russian drones overnight, including Shaheds, Gerans, and others. Air defense forces managed to shoot down or suppress 69 of them across the north, east, and south. Strikes were recorded at 7 locations.
Ukrainian drone attack on occupied Crimea, the Simferopol CCGT-TPP), a combined-cycle gas turbine power plant located near Simferopol, was also hit.
Both a fire near the 220 kV “Kafa” electrical substation and a large fire at the Feodosia oil depot are visible on FIRMS.
Russian losses per 13/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1140 men
+3 tanks
+21 artillery
+2 MLRS
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Kozatske(Moskovske) of Donetsk region and Borovska Andriyivka of Kharkiv region of Ukraine
Analysis and Future Operations —
Trump has been increasing focus on Ukraine ever since putin stiffed him following the Alaska summit and getting a hand on the Gaza conflict. The consideration of sending some Tomahawk missiles is a case in point. Not sure if that bridge is to be crossed soon, as it is apparent that US intel has been helping Ukraine to target the Russian petroleum sector, and very effectively too, with their indigenous drones and missiles.
Fighting along the front continues at moderately heavy levels. Drone/missile activity at minimum, likely building up for another big wave later this week if the pattern holds.
Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level WARNING - OCT 12, 2025 - UPDATED
Fighting has slowed from over the weekend. Widely scattered incidents from what I’ve been able to gather.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- All remaining living hostages released
- Trump addressed the Israeli parliament.
- Near civil war conditions in Gaza as Hamas fights local clans
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
All remaining living hostages have been released overnight by Hamas. Remains of dead hostages expected to begin to be repatriated later today.
***
US President Donald Trump has told cheering Israeli lawmakers that “this is the historic dawn of a new Middle East”, after helping to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
During the first such address by a US president since 2008, Trump said Monday was a “day of profound joy” after “two harrowing years”.
Trump’s address to the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, comes on the day that the last 20 living hostages held in the Palestinian enclave were released by Hamas.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c709jxxrrvlo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
***
At least 27 people have been killed in fierce clashes between Hamas security forces and armed members of the Dughmush family in Gaza City, in one of the most violent internal confrontations since the end of major Israeli operations in the enclave.
Masked Hamas gunmen exchanged fire with clan fighters near the city’s Jordanian hospital, witnesses said.
A senior official in the Hamas-run interior ministry said security units surrounded them and engaged in heavy fighting to detain them. The ministry said eight its members were killed in “an armed assault by a militia”.
Medical sources said 19 Dughmush clan members and eight Hamas fighters had been killed since fighting began on Saturday.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg5e551j593o
***
Word from Hamas is that they are increasingly unwilling to disarm and step aside from leadership as per the agreed plan demands. They have been forcefully reestablishing their rule in areas formerly controlled by Israel
***
Also, Hamas is being accused of delaying the return of the remains of dead hostages. Some Israeli calls to delay release of Hamas terrorists until the bodies have been returned.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
As much as Trump wants to say the war is over, it wont be until Hamas is fully disarmed and out of power in Gaza. They are focused on only one thing - destroy Israel - and even though they technically lost this round, they are already planning on round 2. Unless Qatar, Egypt, Turkey and others put their foot down to enforce the agreement, like they apparently had in order to force the release of all the hostages, fighting will resume in weeks, if not in days.
Hamas is close to setting off a civil war with Gazan clans for control post war. Though hammered by Israel, Hamas does have the edge in personnel and equipment, especially as they go after clans in a singular manner. The hurt will come should the clans band together against Hamas.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The world’s top central bankers and finance ministers have descended to Washington DC for the semi-annual World Bank meetings.
Among the issues to be discussed are global trade in the era of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and economic growth.
***
Ignorance of basic human biology and the woke propagandising of food ‘science’ to control global human behaviour lies behind the recently-published second version of the EAT-Lancet Planetary Health Diet (PHD). Produced by dozens of credentialled cretins around the world, it restricts meat and dairy consumption to levels not seen since the Second World War. Pasty-faced and possibly protein-starved researchers suggest around 15 grams of red meat a day and promote a mainly plant-based diet. A suggestion to cut agricultural emissions by 50% within 25 years means using much less hydrocarbon-produced fertiliser, and that would lead to mass global starvation. But then this potty planetary piss-take could only have been suggested by people who believe that, whatever societal devastation they cause, the soy latte will magically appear as they make their way to Whole Foods to pick up their organic humous.
The few people still watching CNN were treated to the suggestion that the diet could feed 9.6 billion people “equitably” by 2050, save $5 trillion yearly and prevent 15 million deaths. All this, of course, came from a ‘business-as-usual’ computer model which used a scenario similar to the widely discredited RCP8.5. More than a daily allowance of salt needs to be taken with this made-up agitprop. Second World War total calories of 2,500 are suggested, with land-hungry whole grains, vegetables, legumes, nuts and unprocessed oils providing the vast proportion of the diet. Competing with all those wind turbines, solar farms and rewilding schemes, hard-pressed farmers, facing increasing ‘carbon’ taxes on artificial fertilisers, will still be expected to provide City-based wokies with their virtue-filled home deliveries. Haloes can be polished while they luxuriate in the glow caused by knowing that their sainted scoff has been produced by “inclusive governance that centres indigenous knowledge and community voices”. Who knows what that guff actually means in practice, although it is good to know that it is a “transformative action”.
OBSERVATION - Once again, the way to control a population is via food. The road to poor nutrition will equally lead to poorer health and increase the number of associated deaths as a result. Of course, population reduction is a fundamental principal of globalists, though in articles like this they don’t really want to come out and say it. BTW, the ‘elites’ will still get their heaping portions of beef and other food, while the peasants starve.
***
Newsom signed AB 495 into law on Sunday night and pretended that the law, proffered by a Democrat to hide kids illegally in the country from Immigration authorities, kept parental rights intact and preserved parents’ relationships with their own children. Instead, it made every child in California schools, preschools, and state-licensed childcare facilities a target.
Newsom had the hubris and temerity to tout it as “a bill to protect parents’ rights and children.”
That is false. Indeed, it’s worse than false. It’s a license allowing anyone to take your child without your permission and act as that child’s unapproved “guardian.” As the California Family Council (CFA) put it, “Anyone falsely claiming kinship can easily sign the affidavit, access a child, obtain medical care, and enroll them in another school. Even the most basic safeguard of a notary is not required to confirm the true identity of the person accessing your child. AB 495 violates fundamentally constitutionally protected parental rights, endangers California’s children, and will be appropriately legally challenged and struck down.”
https://pjmedia.com/victoria-taft/2025/10/13/ab-495-n4944800
OBSERVATION - The globalists want absolute control over all aspects of your children, in order to indoctrinate them to their plans and desires. The willing globalist syncopates in Kalifornia are assisting in that movement here in the US. Expect aggressive lawsuits to overturn this law.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
UPCOMING -
- “No Kings 2.0”, 18 October 2025
***
Family members of law enforcement officers are facing threats from individuals affiliated with the far-left extremist group Antifa, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said in an Oct. 10 X post.
“Antifa terrorists are threatening the families of our law enforcement,“ DHS stated in the post. ”We will hunt these sickos down and put them behind bars. In Texas, the spouse of an [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] ICE officer received a voicemail filled with violent threats.”
***
Far-left extremists were reportedly infuriated to see patriotic counter-protesters arrive outside the ICE facility in Portland. The numbers of these counter protestors have grown in recent days, challenging Antifa et al’s claim to being ‘peaceful’. Such a pushback is not unprecedented, the Berkeley riots of 2017 saw the rise of conservatives and “Base Stick Man” groups which forcefully met Antifa protestors and eventually drove the leftist agitators off the campus and forced the city to get Antifa and allies to stand down.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Democrats still trying to beat the drums of no military pay, find that rug pulled out and now are threatening to sue the administration for funding shifts to keep them payed as well as other critical funding.
TRUMP Watch –
Today, President Trump will award the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Charlie Kirk to Erika Kirk who receive this award on her husband’s behalf.
On Monday, in separate announcements, the presidents of Egypt and Israel each awarded U.S. President Donald Trump one of their respective country’s highest honors for his work brokering a peace agreement designed to end the war in Gaza.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
Personnel Issues –
ISW. Russia may begin to mobilize members of Russia’s active reserve on a rolling basis to sustain its combat operations in Ukraine, but it is unlikely to conduct a large-scale involuntary reserve mobilization to expand the size of the Russian military dramatically at this time.
The creation of a mechanism for small, rolling mobilizations would be a major inflection in Russia’s force generation strategy, which so far has sought to generate recruits through growing financial incentives and sign-up bonuses to avoid mass compulsory mobilization after the challenging involuntary reserve call up of late 2022.
The Russian Cabinet of Ministers’ Commission on Legislative Activity passed a new draft amendment that effectively removes the current legal barriers against deploying reservists to combat in the absence of an officially declared mobilization or war.
OBSERVATION - This is a potential crack in the dam that has prevented Moscow from mobilization of larger numbers of its military. By calling the war a “police action” it has been able to circumvent laws preventing conscripts from fighting an undeclared war. Now with this move, most likely a test run, Russia is testing the waters to potentially drastically increase forces against Ukraine without current legal restraints.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-50 degree range with widely scattered showers
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine was hit by 96 Russian drones overnight, including around 60 Shaheds launched from multiple directions including Russia and occupied Crimea. Air defenses shot down or suppressed 69 of them across the north, south, east, and center. Strikes were recorded at 7 locations.
Russian losses per 14/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1200 men
+5 tanks
+29 artillery
Ukraine’s 33rd Assault Regiment and 24th “Aidar” Battalion broke through Russian defenses in the Orikhiv sector, Zaporizhzhia region. They’ve liberated Mali Shcherbaky, Shcherbaky, and parts of Stepove, and captured Russian troops to expand the exchange fund.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Pretty much status quo for the fight. No significant breakouts expected from either side. Both sides at a relatively low cycle for drone / missile activity.
Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level WARNING - OCT 12, 2025 -
No further significant fighting reported, looks like things are settling down.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas and clans continue to fight.
- Only four bodies have been returned to Israel
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Reports of Hamas militants carrying out field executions of Palestinians in Gaza.
Explosions being reported in Gaza from fighting between Hamas and clan forces.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
All 20 living hostages returned, only 4 of the 28 dead have been returned. Failure to return the remains of the hostages will soon become a sticking point and one where Israel can and likely will drag their feet on any withdrawals.
The euphoria of the 20 will soon break down as the requirements of Hamas to disarm, remove themselves from power and turn governing over to other nations / entities will hit reality. As of now, the Eqyptian accord holds the arab nations to a pretty straight forward requirement to hold Hamas accountable. Of note that accord does not address anything to do with a two state solution.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
UPCOMING -
- “No Kings 2.0”, 18 October 2025
***
Congress collected 30 million lines of phone data in Trump J6 probe, raising civil liberty concerns
Congressional investigators collected a stunning 30 million lines of phone data mapping contacts between conservatives and the Trump White House in the name of investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol breach, a massive dragnet that raises civil liberty concerns about the lack of limits on the ability of lawmakers to snoop on Americans’ private phone calls.
The mountainous collection of phone records were revealed to the FBI led by Chris Wray in late 2023 by former Rep. Adam Kinzinger, a GOP member on the Democrat-run House Jan. 6 select committee. The cache was offered to the bureau on the eve of the 2024 presidential election as evidence without requiring a warrant, according to an FBI document memorializing the offer that was reviewed by Just the News.
The memo says Kinzinger told the FBI that the phone data had been collected by then-former Rep. Denver Riggleman, an ex-Republican who was a staffer on the Capitol riot committee and who later helped Hunter Biden’s legal team in its efforts to cast doubt on the laptop belonging to Joe Biden’s son.
OBSERVATION - Best said here-
“Congress secretly collected 30 million lines of phone data to map who might be a MAGA supporter for contacting the Trump White House and then tried to back door it to the FBI? Perhaps time for a refresher course on the 4th Amendment”
https://x.com/jsolomonreports/status/1978312723202035875?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
This is Stazi on steriods! Laying the groundwork for a massive assault on freedom loving Americans when the left can fully drop the hammer.
***
PORTLAND -
Portland Antifa tactics revealed: In order to hide riot supplies and potentially weapons from
@PortlandPolice
during sweeps of their illegal encampment outside
@ICEgov
, Antifa have rented a nearby storage space to stash their supplies.
@Tommy4Trump420
caught them transporting supplies to their secret base inside the South Waterfront Heated Storage business. This is in addition to their Antifa safehouse at 677 South Lowell St., Unit #152.
https://x.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1977935396517326903
OBSERVATION - Not surprising.
***
Big PR push with MSM and social media full court presses to try to convince the public that Antifa doesn’t exist as an entity but only as some amorphous concept.
***
CHICAGO -
Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker has vowed to prosecute Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents in a post-Trump era.
Pritzker made the comments during an interview with FOX 32 Chicago this week as ICE agents step up their efforts across the city of Chicago.
“The tables will turn one day,” Prtizker explained.
”These people should recognize that maybe they’re not gonna get prosecuted today, although we’re looking at doing that, but they may get prosecuted after the Trump administration because the statute of limitations would not have run out.”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/10/illinois-gov-j-b-pritzker-vows-imprison-ice/
OBSERVATION - States looking to essentially conduct war against US law enforcement enforcing the law.
***
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced Monday that more than 1,500 illegal immigrants, including pedophiles, violent gang members, and armed robbers, have been arrested across Illinois under Operation Midway Blitz.
“Operation Midway Blitz is making Illinois SAFE again,” DHS said in an October 14 post on X.
“DHS law enforcement has made over 1,500 arrests across Illinois, including of pedophiles, vicious gang members, and armed robbers.
“@POTUS Trump and @Sec Noem WILL NOT allow criminal illegal aliens to terrorize our cities.”
https://slaynews.com/news/1500-illegal-aliens-arrested-massive-dhs-bust-illinois/
***
ELSEWHERE
Los Angeles County has declared a state of emergency over ICE immigration raids - ABC
Los Angeles County supervisors, in a 4-1 vote, branded federal immigration enforcement a local crisis to fast-track aid for those swept up in it.
The declaration unlocks emergency rental assistance for tenants facing eviction after ICE detentions.
POLITICAL FRONT –
House democrats stormed the Speaker’s office with a bunch of demands only to find out he was at the Medal of Freedom ceremony for Charlie Kirk.
***
Democrats are trying to rally behind a ridicules claim that biden should receive the credit for the recent peace agreement over Gaza. Delusional.
TRUMP Watch –
As of today, Trump’s average job approval rating is a pretty healthy 45.3 percent. On this same day, during his second term (October 13, 2013), Barry Obama’s average approval rating sat at 44.4 percent. At this same point (October 13, 2005), George W. Bush’s approval rating was in a dive he would never recover from — 39.5 percent.
***
Knowing the outline of the deal as first presented, I&I/TIPP asked voters: “Do you support or oppose the Trump peace plan for Gaza, which calls for an immediate ceasefire, hostage exchanges, and rebuilding Gaza under international supervision?”
The response was powerful: 59% said they would either support the deal “strongly” (30%) or “somewhat” (29%), while just 18% opposed the deal either “strongly” (9%) or “somewhat”. A large 23% of Americans said they were not sure.
The national online poll was taken from Sept. 30 to Oct. 2, with 1.459 adults taking part. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.
Illegal Immigration –
The Trump administration has revoked the visas of six foreign nationals who made social media posts critical of Charlie Kirk following his assassination.
The Department of Transportation has closed a loop hole that states used to issue CDLs to illegals.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-50 degree range with widely scattered showers
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 113 drones, mostly Shaheds, from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defenses downed or suppressed 86 of them across the north, south, and east. Strikes were recorded at 11 locations.
Ukrainian drones struck the oil depot in occupied Feodosia again, damaging 16 more fuel tanks that survived the previous hit. A large fire is ongoing, the General Staff reports.
Diesel fuel is unavailable at stations in Zuya, Alushta, and Perevalne, as well as ATAN and TES in Simferopol, occupied Crimea. The shortages are likely linked to the Feodosia oil depot strike, where tanks filled with diesel were destroyed.
Over 20 Shahed-type drones hit a power station in Kamianske of Dnipropetrovsk region. No electrical power and water supply in the city
***
Russian losses per 15/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1070 men
+3 tanks
+2 AFVs
+43 artillery
+2 AD systems
In the Sumy region, Ukrainian forces have advanced into Oleksiivka, pushing back Russian forces who recently tried to reinforce the area.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Oleksiivka of Dnipropetrovsk region and Novopavlivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Ukrainian forces repelled a large-scale Russian assault near Pokrovsk. Russian troops attempted to breach Ukrainian engineering barriers but were caught in a deadly crossfire and suffered heavy losses.
***
ISW. Russian forces have conducted three company- and battalion-sized mechanized assaults in priority areas of Donetsk Oblast over the last two weeks, marking an inflection in recent Russian armor usage in Ukraine.
Russian forces have largely favored leveraging small groups of infantry to conduct infiltration missions and make slow advances throughout the front line over conducting mechanized assaults during the first nine months of 2025.
Russian forces are still leveraging infantry to advance but have conducted several comparatively larger mechanized assaults in their priority Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka and Dobropillya tactical areas of Donetsk Oblast in recent weeks.
Russian forces appear to be conducting larger mechanized assaults during rainy and foggy weather conditions, which complicate Ukrainian drone operations.
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1978252417633333709?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
***
Ukrainian authorities have ordered the evacuation of families from 40 villages near the devastated city of Kupiansk amid intensified Russian attacks. The area has faced months of bombardment. - Reuters
Analysis and Future Operations —
Key commentary on Russian tactics. Increasing the use of armor/tanks to try to break the general stalemate on the front, and getting chewed up in the process.
Russian attacks under foul weather conditions are one solution to negating much of Ukraine’s superiority of FPV drone defenses. Ukraine will have to rely on more expensive thermal optics equipped drones to counter these attacks. This causes me to wonder why Russia hasn’t been using smoke and airburst WP to provide cover for its attacking forces. IDK.
I expect another major Russian drone/missile attack soon.
Ukraine continues to double and triple tap Russian petroleum targets. Not only creating shortages in the near term, but extensive damage to keep them off line for the longer term. As noted many times before, fuel stations are out of gas/diesel in occupied areas and facing skyrocketing prices and shortages as far east as the Moscow region. The related hits to the Russian economy which depends heavily on oil and gas are big and growing.
Europe / NATO General –
NATO SecGen Mark Rutte warned: “Let me address the Russians directly, if they deliberately try anything against NATO, we have the means and authority to defend every inch of NATO airspace and territory.”
Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level WARNING - OCT 15, 2025 -
New clashes erupted early on Wednesday between Pakistani and Afghan forces at the joint border, with both sides accusing the other of having begun the hostilities.
https://www.dw.com/en/pakistan-fresh-clashes-on-afghan-border-leave-several-dead/a-74364795?maca=en-rss-en-top-1022-rdf
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas turned over 4 more bodies to Israel, only three were hostages, the 4th unknown
- PIJ and other affiliated jihadists rejecting the peace plan, saying they are exempt from it.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he had communicated to Hamas that the militant group must disarm or it will be forced to.
“If they don’t disarm, we will disarm them. And it will happen quickly and perhaps violently,” Trump said during a meeting at the White House with Argentine President Javier Milei.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/trump-hamas-disarm/2025/10/14/id/1230307/
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
The Israel Air Force conducted an airstrike against the movement of several suspects towards the IDF troops in the Shejaia area of the Gaza Strip on Wednesday morning.
According to military sources, the suspects approached an area where Palestinian movement is prohibited and posed an immediate threat to the forces.
According to a military source, two Palestinians were wounded in the attack.
Drones later dropped non-lethal weapons against Palestinians who approached the forces, and three smoke plumes rose in the sky over Shejaia.
“Palestinians are approaching. They continue to challenge (the established lines),” said a military source.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/2025-10-15/live-updates-870442#google_vignette
***
Hamas openly admits it has no intention of disarming or giving up power in Gaza—two core requirements of the ceasefire deal it accepted just days ago.
In an interview last night, Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem declared the group will reject all Israeli demands related to weapons, saying:
“We will not be prisoners to Israeli terminology or demands. This will be a key focus in the next phase of our struggle.”
Qassem also signaled that Hamas plans to reinterpret the signed agreement on Gaza’s governance—pushing for a governing body that aligns with its agenda and preserves its influence.
https://x.com/israelwarroom/status/1978020976487985620?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
***
Palestinian Authority president’s office condemns “executions carried out by Hamas in recent days against dozens of civilians in Gaza without fair trials,” calling them “heinous and unacceptable crimes under any excuse.” - Statement
***
Deputy Secretary-General of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad Movement:
“The resistance factions did not agree to disarmament and we do not accept threats to forcibly disarm.”
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Turkey is sending 81 search and rescue personnel to Gaza along with necessary equipment and vehicles to locate bodies. The word in Ankara was that they would unearth dead Israeli hostages
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
I said earlier, repatriation of the dead Israelis will take longer. However, it looks as if Hamas is dragging its feet. Injection of Turkish elements may speed things up. Until then Israel has full justification to refuse further pullout.
Hamas refusal to disarm and exit Gaza governance, though they signed the document agreeing to it, will eventually bring about another crisis. However, this crisis will also severely impact the arab nations that guaranteed that Hamas would hold to the deal. What will they do? Over their head, Trump hangs warning that their failures will affect them financially.
Related to this are the smaller, terror groups like PIJ, who essentially claim they are exempt from the agreement. Perhaps technically they are correct, but then that gives Israel carte blanc to hammer them when the time comes. It will take a lot of work to demilitarize the Gaza Strip of not only Hamas, but other factions like PIJ.
As recent airstrikes expose, Hamas et al is trying to attack Israeli forces to provoke an incident that they can use to turn the public against it again.
Syria -
Russian Foreign Ministry: Moscow and Damascus discuss Russia’s presence in Syria and restructuring its military facilities.
OBSERVATION - Russia is desperate to maintain its bases in Syria. Syria OTOH appears to be willing to allow retention, as long as their ‘purpose’ is changed into more of a humanitarian stop over point for relief headed to Africa.
Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025
President Trump has announced another military strike against a boat off Venezuela suspected of trafficking drugs on Tuesday, which killed all six people on board.
Trump stated that the vessel was “affiliated with a Designated Terrorist Organization” but did not name any organization or issue specific evidence to back this, only releasing unclassified video of the strike.
This marks the fifth known strike on alleged drug trafficking boats in the Caribbean Sea in recent months, with the prior four instances having killed 21 people total. A prior strike had been disclosed by the Pentagon in early October.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/six-killed-after-us-strikes-boat-venezuela-5th-such-operation
OBSERVATION - There have been growing reports that smuggler sea routes are being adjusted in an effort to avoid detection and destruction.
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