Surprising breakthrough in Gaza overnight. Trying to make sense of it all, see below.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025
***
A crowd of Islamists in NYC waving Hamas flags declare that they will presumably carry out attacks in the US.
“We did not act enough! We will show up, stronger than we did the first October 7th!”
https://x.com/EYakoby/status/1975765993075908636
Violence broke out in downtown Boston Tuesday night when a pro-Palestinian demonstration escalated into a full-blown riot, leaving four police officers injured and leading to 13 arrests. The clash unfolded on the two-year anniversary of the October 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attack on Israel, as hundreds gathered in what organizers called a “Flood Downtown for Palestine” event.
Boston police reported that the trouble started when protesters refused to clear the roadway near the Soldiers and Sailors Monument on Boston Common, blocking emergency vehicles and surrounding cruisers.
As the situation worsened, additional units arrived, but protesters kept fighting back.
“As violence escalated,” police said, more officers were deployed while agitators “continued to resist dispersal.” In total, four officers ended up needing medical treatment for injuries ranging from facial trauma to other assaults sustained in the scrum.
https://thelibertydaily.com/marxist-boston-mayor-pretends-be-tough-after-city/
OBSERVATION - With the current hostage/ceasefire agreement moving forward combined with the two year remembrance of the Oct 7 attack by Hamas, pro-Hamas protestors took the opportunity to raise a ruckus. This action continues to show that their goals is to continue to press for the elimination of Israel and to do so here in the US. They are not satisfied with just holding signs, they are more violence shifted.
***
CHICAGO -
Bulletins from CIS & DHS state four Chicago ICE facilities, including Broadview have been surveilled with detailed layouts, diagrams & photos— posted to an Antifa website with pics of ICE Agents names & faces.
https://x.com/Dapper_Det/status/1975728209191673977
OBSERVATION - This is a dangerous development that could lead to better coordination of Antifa et al attacks on these facilities and agents. Shows a higher level of organization being present.
PORTLAND -
Attorneys general from 20 states have stepped into the dispute between Oregon officials and the Trump administration over the use of National Guard troops to defend Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents who have come under assault from protesters in Portland.
Led by Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen, Brenna Bird of Iowa, Gentner Drummond of Oklahoma, and South Carolina’s Alan Wilson, the attorneys general filed an emergency appeal amicus brief with the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals on Oct. 8, charging that Portland police failed to protect ICE agents from “violent rioters,” and that “President [Donald] Trump’s deployment of a small number of National Guard members to defend against this lawlessness is responsible, constitutional and authorized by statute.”
The brief in support of the Trump administration was also signed by attorneys general from Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, Texas, and West Virginia.
OBSERVATION - This brief shows that Trump is not alone in this showdown with Portland and Chicago in regards to NG activation and deployment under Title 10.
***
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals on Wednesday unanimously voted to lift Judge Immergut’s Temporary Restraining Order on Trump’s mobilization of Oregon National Guard Troops.
However, the Ninth Circuit left in place Judge Immergut’s block on troop deployment.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/10/breaking-appeals-court-lifts-judges-order-blocking-trump/
OBSERVATION - I am assuming that the ‘blocked on troop deployment’ may refer to CA NG forces being deployed to Portland. From the read, Trump can activate OR NG, but not CA NG. Again, that is outside the lines for judicial action - military deployments are the strict purview of the Executive Branch. The whole of the 9th will likely have to weigh in on this and probably even the USSC before it is all done.
***
ADDITIONAL OBSERVATION - The above show two fronts of the overall leftist assault on the US that is growing. The pro-Hamas /jihad element, with leftist support and the Antifa / anti-ICE front. Common thread - leftist backing for both.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.
***
(FO) Louis Geri, the man arrested on Sunday ahead of the Washington, D.C. Red Mass at St. Matthews Cathedral had more than 200 homemade explosive devices and Molotov cocktails in his possession.
According to court records, after D.C. police approached Geri, he handed them a manifesto which included threats to Supreme Court justices and ICE.
Geri was also charged with possession of a destructive device and false report of a weapon of mass destruction connected to an incident at the same church in September.
OBSERVATION - No announcement of motivation by media or law enforcement - not surprising since for all appearances this is another leftist. FO sees this as another “lone wolf” incident where the individual has been radicalized to action by leftist social media.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Gold and silver continue to rocket upwards.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) has announced that as of today, October 8, federalized members of the Texas Army National Guard, under Title 10 Orders and the command of NORTHCOM, have been deployed into the Greater Chicago Metropolitan Area. According to Northern Command, these Soldiers will be employed to protect federal property and federal government personnel who are performing federal functions, including U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
POLITICAL FRONT –
Another senate vote, and democrats refuse to cross the isle to get the govt running again.
(FO) The Senate Majority Political Action Committee (PAC), linked to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, told Democrats it would be a mistake to take pressure off of Republicans by voting to end the government shutdown. The Senate Majority PAC said Democrats are winning the shutdown public messaging campaign, in a memo circulated to Democrats that included polling showing likely 2026 voters blame Republicans for the shutdown.
OBSERVATION - They are dangerously clinging to their ‘polling’. I really don’t think the general public has been impacted very much by the shutdown. Republicans are continuing to hammer and win on the democrat funding for illegals medical care.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump on Truth Social:
“I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan. This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace. All Parties will be treated fairly! This is a GREAT Day for the Arab and Muslim World, Israel, all surrounding Nations, and the United States of America, and we thank the mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, who worked with us to make this Historic and Unprecedented Event happen. BLESSED ARE THE PEACEMAKERS! DONALD J. TRUMP PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA”
Illegal Immigration –
Leavitt -
“Unlawful crossings along the U.S.-Mexico border in fiscal year 2025 plummeted to the lowest annual level since the early 1970s, amid the Trump administration’s sweeping clampdown on illegal immigration.”
https://x.com/PressSec/status/1975522156185292850
Japan –
Japan’s Joint Staff office disclosed that the Japan maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) conducted a minelaying exercise with a minesweeper tender and destroyer escort last week in Japan’s southernmost islands, which China also claims.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
Logistics –
There are reports that a large fire has broken out in Novosibirsk at a factory that manufactures electronics and microchips for the Russian defense industry.
It’s unclear whether a drone from Ukraine was behind the blaze, or whether it was a sabotage incident, or possibly an accident, which the cause of the fire being under investigation. The location is in southern Siberia.
The facility produces electronics, microchips, and services electrical equipment.
According to open sources, the factory also works in soldering components, defense-related equipment, communications, and radio electronics for the Russian defense-industrial complex.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1975934205302575129
OBSERVATION - Unconfirmed reports that the factory is a near total loss.
Economic Impact –
Russian stocks fell to a three-year low after the Foreign Ministry said ties with the US were “destroyed to the core.” The Moscow Exchange dropped over 4%, with heavy losses for Gazprom, Sberbank, VTB, and Rosneft, as analysts cited panic selling after Deputy FM Ryabkov’s remarks.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with increasing rain across the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 112 strike drones, mostly Shaheds. By 09:00, Ukrainian air defenses had shot down or jammed 87 drones across the north, south, and east. Twenty-two strikes hit 12 locations
Bloomberg reports that recent Russian strikes destroyed over half of Ukraine’s domestic gas production, forcing Kyiv to seek emergency fuel imports worth about €1.9 billion to get through winter.
According to sources, the massive Oct. 3 attacks on energy sites in Kharkiv and Poltava regions wiped out roughly 60% of national output.
Power blackout in Chirnomorsk of Odesa region after Russian strikes at critical infrastructure. Russia also attacked port infrastructure in Odesa region
Ukraine drones have reportedly attacked an oil depot in Matveev Kurgan of Rostov region
A fire is currently burning at the Efimovka Oil Pumping Station on the Kuibyshev-Tikhoretsk Pipeline, which runs between the Ural Mountains and the Black Sea, following a drone strike earlier tonight by Ukraine.
Overnight, Ukrainian drones struck a gas processing plant in Kotovo, Volgograd region. The local governor reported debris falling on a boiler facility and a fire at fuel and energy infrastructure sites. FIRMS data confirmed fires at the Kotovo plant and at the Yefimovka pumping station, about 8 km to the south.
Russian losses per 09/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1020 men
+1 tank
+1 AFV
+15 artillery
From reports, the bulk of the Russian attacks have been in the Pokrovsk sector. Northern and southern fronts relatively quiet.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Drone wars are going at it hammer and tongs, with both sides targeting oil/gas production and distribution. This is critical for both sides, though Ukraine is likely in a better shape since they’ve been able to adapt to the past several winters with affected supplies of oil and gas. Russians not so, now feeling a real pinch in gasoline supplies and other economic woes. for the first time.
Watching the Pokrovsk sector as indicators are that this is where Russia will attempt its next offensive. A key factor on when this will kick off may well be determined by the availability of fuel to haul troops and supplies to the front. In addition to enhanced Ukraine defensive fortifications, the area continues to swarm with Ukraine FPV drones.
Europe / NATO General –
Macron held talks with the leaders of the two chambers of parliament on Tuesday, hinting at a possible move to dissolve the lower-house National Assembly and trigger snap elections. The talks come as outgoing PM Sébastien Lecornu holds “last-ditch” negotiations with political parties aimed at breaking the country’s political deadlock.
OBSERVATION - Macron’s status in the world is crumbling as he can’t keep things going at home, let alone on the rest of the world’s stage
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Next up - Oct 7 memorial services.
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas and Israel come into agreement on a Phase 1 plan for hostage releases and ceasefire.
- Trump to head to Israel this weekend and speak before the Knesset
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Trump announced early Thursday that Israel and Hamas have signed the first phase of his peace plan to end the war in the Gaza Strip. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said shortly after, “With God’s help, we’re bringing everyone home.”
“I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Trump will arrive in Israel and on Sunday address the Knesset in Jerusalem, according to Ynet.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Hamas and Israel have come to an agreement for a Phase 1 ceasefire. Details of the agreement are still trickling out but here’s what I’ve been able to put together so far.
As per N12News:
-Once the agreement is signed (scheduled for 12:00 PM local time today), IDF troops will withdraw to the designated line within 24 hours of signing.
NOTE - This ‘line’ leaves Israel in control of 53% of Gaza.
-All living hostages will be released at once from Gaza by Monday at the latest; deceased hostages will be released later, in stages.
NOTE - Conflict may have caused access problems to some of the bodies, so recovery may be delayed.
- 1700 detained Gazans and 250 Palestinians serving life sentences are expected to be transferred to Turkey
-Hamas Nukhba terrorists who participated in the October 7 attack will not be released.
NOTE - This was the military unit that lead the attack into Israel on Oct 7.
-The IDF will control an estimated 53% of Gaza until the last hostage is released.
-Hamas will not hold ceremonies to release the hostages.
-The Rafah Crossing will be opened in both directions.
NOTE -Rafah Crossing is Egyptian controlled and may have lax inspection protocols
-600 trucks of aid will be brought into Gaza each day.
- Egypt, Turkey, Qatar and the US have signed as guarantors of the agreement.
Netanyahu’s office: The ceasefire in Gaza will take effect after the Israeli government approves it this evening.
A leading Palestinian source told Al Jazeera: Progress has been made on the prisoner exchange lists and guarantees that there will be no return to war after the release of prisoners. The Jerusalem Post, citing Israeli officials: no Nukhba terrorists who actively participated in the October 7 massacre will be released.
Palestinian media reports that the Israeli army deployed tanks to the Rashid coastal road to prevent Palestinians from returning to Gaza City and the Strip’s north. Footage shows the tanks firing shells near a crowd of Palestinians gathering in the area
The IDF is on especially high alert as a ceasefire agreement in Gaza is expected to take effect.
The IDF is concerned that Hamas may attempt to exploit the final hours before the deal takes effect to launch additional attacks, fire rockets, or carry out abduction attempts.
Speaking Wednesday night, IDF sources welcomed the deal but stressed that all forces remain under strict operational directives. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir instructed troops operating deep inside Gaza and along the northern front to remain fully alert, focus on defense, and be prepared for any unexpected developments.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/416009
***
There are reports of Red Cross ambulances entering Gaza to undisclosed locations
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
The Shin Bet and IDF announced on Wednesday that they had dismantled a major arms smuggling operation from Iran, intended for terrorist cells operating in the West Bank.
According to the military statement, the intercepted cargo included a considerable arsenal: 15 anti-tank rockets, 29 Claymore charges, 4 drones (including two explosive drones), an RPG launcher, 3 warheads, 20 hand grenades, 53 pistols, 7 assault rifles, 9 machine guns, as well as 750 pistol rounds.
Security services have arrested an arms trafficker from the Ramallah region, whose interrogation led to the uncovering of the supply network.
The operation resulted in the identification of the network responsible for the smuggling, linked to the special operations branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and the Quds Force, headed by Ezatollah Bakri.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Gulf Cooperation Council: Gaza agreement must be the beginning of a path leading to a two-state solution
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Boy did I ever miss this call! All trends pointed to efforts to fail. It appears that Hamas folded under concentrated pressure from Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar, making it clear to them there was no room for maneuver. At least I caught that much, just doubted they wouldn’t be this effective.
We are not out of the woods yet as it appears that the agreement is still only partial and that there will be considerable wrangling over a “Phase 2”.
Questions remain.
What Hamas must do and will they do it:
1. Hamas must lays down their weapons.
2. Hamas gives up rule in Gaza.
3. Gaza must be deradicalized terror-free zone.
These three items are probably Hamas’ greatest sticking points and may have support from Turkey, Egypt and Qatar to retain some control and presence in Gaza. Being trigger happy, this part of the deal may fall apart and resumption of fighting resume to some degree.
It is being made clear by some officials that if Hamas refuses to disarm, Israel will resume operations, this time without hostage related constrictions.
There has been a lot of speculation on just how far Israel will eventually pull out of Gaza. Most speculation suggests that Israel will maintain control of the Philadelphia corridor - area along the Gaza / Egyptian border - as well as a security buffer zone around the area plus and extended presence in N Gaza, given that this area poses a threat as a rocket launch area towards more populated areas of Israel.
Heightened alert by Israeli forces for attempts to kidnap IDF soldiers. By Hamas thinking, they are not covered by the current agreement, thereby allowing them to retain a “hostage” leverage for the ongoing talks. If they do this during the ceasefire, it would be a violation and all bets will be off.
Hostages were the biggest card in Hamas’ hand and should the agreement be followed, they will lose that edge. It is therefore more likely that Hamas will be tamed to a degree. The loss of military and political power in Gaza will hurt it substantially. Already there is increasing word of fighting between Hamas elements, gangs and tribal clans for control of areas. Enough hard core Hamas followers will likely be able to go to ground that they could try to resurrect the movement at a later date.
International talk looking to use this agreement as a spring board to a two state solution will go on but nothing but talk will happen in the near term. Israel would almost have to be forced at the barrel of a gun to permit a Palestinian ‘state’ and have Jerusalem divided. LETS REMEMBER, in 2005, Israel removed all jews from Gaza, left a well developed and profitable agriculture industry for the arabs, and allowed them to govern themselves. Within two years, Hamas took control with the popular vote of the people and now here we are today. Neither Hamas or the PA in their charters acknowledge Israel’ right to exist and both have been committed to the elimination of the nation. Gives us a preview of how this ‘two state’ solution will pan out.
Over the course of the next week, we’ll see if Hamas is going to play by the rules. I am hopeful that the hostages get returned without delay of monkeyshines by Hamas. But unless Hamas is completely eliminated from the scene, the terror clock has only been reset and what ever radical jihadi sect takes control of Gaza begins working towards the next attack.
With a tentative halt to the fight in Gaza, Israel will once again be fixing their eyes on Iran and the Houthis, their only active proxy. With Trump expressing a willingness to go after any nuclear weapons program again, Iran is treading carefully.
Houthis are cockroaches, able to hide drones and rockets for attacks on Israel, but their Red Sea blockade seems to be losing its grip. Also, Houthis will be losing their moral justification for attacking Israel with a successful ceasefire.
Lebanon -
The Israel Defense Forces on Tuesday killed Hezbollah terrorist Mahmoud Ali Issa in the Deir Aames area of Southern Lebanon’s Tyre District. Issa served as Hezbollah’s representative in the nearby Kara area, where he was responsible for managing the Iranian proxy’s financial and military ties with local residents.
OBSERVATION - Israeli actions against Hezbollah will not be affected by a ceasefire in Gaza. I expect these operations to continue until the Lebanese army and govt fully stand up and remove Hezbollah.
Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025
Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro has announced the activation of the “Independence 200 Plan” in the Carabobo and La Guaira Integral Defense Zones of Northern Venezuela, in response to “aggressive maneuvers” by the United States in the Southern Caribbean, with the plan involving all elements of the National Bolivarian Armed Forces of Venezuela, including the Bolivarian National Militia.
As part of the plan, defensive and protective measures have been put in place at critical infrastructure sites, including airports and ports, in Caracas and across Northern Venezuela, specifically mentioning the mobilization of military forces to Maiquetía International Airport.
Earlier today, Buk-M2E Surface-to-Air Missile Systems were already spotted having been deployed at Generalísimo Francisco de Miranda Military Air Base in Caracas, while anti-tank concrete barriers were seen pre-staged on the Caracas - La Guaira Highway near Maiquetía Airport.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1976101516667912435?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - Efforts at the airbase / airports and other locations reflect a defensive method seen at Grenada where the airport runways were blocked off, preventing the arrival of follow on aircraft and troops to support the initial paratroopers of the 82d ABN.
At this stage, I don’t see a major US ground operation against Venezuela. Higher probability of bombing / missile strikes against inland narco-terrorist targets with possible seizures of naval facilities that have been supporting the drug flow via the ocean. The US has the forces available to execute such operations right now and could do so as ordered.
Time will tell if hamas upholds its end of the deal.
I don’t trust them so I’ll believe it when I see it.
Thanks Godzilla. Hamas, the proxy of Islam, is moving 2 steps forward one step back. In their 1400 year singleness of purpose long war, the success is evident around the world. Emboldened jihad continues apace. Everything (including life) that western civilization holds dear, is threatened with extermination. Take note of daily events.
Lots of us were surprised - and pleasantly so... taking out Iran's ability to build a nuke might have played a part too...
Potentially no post for this coming Sunday
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
UPCOMING -
- “No Kings 2.0”, 18 October 2025
***
Initial weekend forecast for protests and the like. Generally, planned protests will be relatively calm as in the past. Key trouble spots will remain in major cities, particularly Portland and Chicago around ICE facilities where after dark violence has become the norm.
Other potential violence can be expected from pro-hamas / pro-jihadi pop-up protests spinning off from recent ceasefire actions in Gaza. Many will try to promote that Hamas was the winner in the conflict, that Israel must accept a two state ‘solution’ or better yet (for the protestors view) be wiped off the map entirely. These protest will be local an quite likely near Jewish synagogues and other families like religious schools.
***
(FO) California Governor Gavin Newsom and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker threatened to leave the National Governors Association if the bipartisan group did not condemn the Trump administration’s federal surges into Democrat-controlled states. Pritzker said governors of all states should be “standing as one” against the idea that President Trump can federalize National Guard units against the will of governors.
OBSERVATION - This move could begin the process of these blue states setting up a united govt system to oppose the national one. Establishment of a parallel govt is a dangerous step towards CW2
***
PORTLAND -
In posters spread around the town, Portland Antifa announced they’re going to shine lasers at law enforcement helicopters this weekend.
OBSERVATION - Use of these are the types of high powered lasers rioters have used to damage the eyes of law enforcement during the 2020 riots. Four illegals were found and arrested after a laser attack on a fed helicopter just a couple weeks ago and another arrested earlier this week shining a laser at police.
***
Now that the local and national press have started to cover the Portland ICE area round-the-clock in reaction to the President, Antifa have devised a plan where they are encouraging one another to come in animal costumes.
The costumes serve the function of masking the violent extremism to make the direct action appear like a family-friendly gathering on camera, and to whitewash the past ultraviolence.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1976507813259010143?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
During the 2020 BLM-Antifa riots, this was the tactic Antifa used to make their violence seem less threatening on camera. They put the females at the front, and the rioters used lasers and projectiles at the back.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1976509848540828142?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - The narrative being pushed by civic leaders and Antifa are that the nightly riots are ‘peaceful’ and non threatening, a story that got filtered into the district judge’s decision against US deployment of OR NG to protect ICE and other govt facilities. Antifa is using lessons learned from 2020 to try to gain PR support here.
***
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals scheduled a hearing on the Trump administration’s appeal of Oregon-based Federal District Judge Karin Immergut’s ruling today. A three judge panel from the Ninth Circuit Court reversed Immergut’s ruling against federalizing the National Guard, but allowed the block on deploying troops in Oregon to stand.
CHICAGO -
U.S. District Judge April Perry has ruled that the Trump Administration’s deployment of federalized troops with the Texas National Guard to Chicago violated the 10th and 14th Amendments, as well as the Posse Comitatus Act, granting a temporary restraining order to prevent the further deployment and/or mobilization of Texas Guardsmen to assist with federal operations in Illinois.
This order comes as National Guardsmen are now on the ground outside the Broadview ICE facility near Chicago Per Border Patrol Commander Bovino, 150 National Guardmen are at that ONE ICE facility
OBSERVATIONS - Another contorted ruling by an activist judge who doesn’t
even get the constitution correct.
***
(FO) Illinois Federal District Judge Jeffrey Cummings ruled that ICE violated a Biden-era consent decree that placed restrictions on ICE agents conducting warrantless collateral arrests of illegal aliens in states under the jurisdiction of the Chicago, IL ICE Field Office. The consent decree was scheduled to end in May 2025, but Cummings ruled that the decree will remain in force until February 2026 and restrict how ICE agents can conduct collateral arrests during Operation Midway Blitz.
***
(FO) Illinois Federal District Judge Sara Ellis ruled yesterday that federal agents must limit the use of force for the next two weeks, in response to a lawsuit filed by protestors and journalists. Federal agents are restricted from using riot control weapons unless an immediate and serious threat of harm to a person exists, cannot use force to take someone to the ground unless an immediate threat exists, and cannot use gas canisters or compressed air launchers unless federal agents would otherwise be authorized to use lethal force.
OBSERVATION - This ruling will likely encourage Antifa et al to become more violent in its actions knowing that ICE and federal agents have their hands tied.
***
(FO) According to a Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) internal report, Chicago gangs were offered bounties for assassinating ICE agents and officials.
“Gangs in the Pilsen and Little Village neighborhoods have ‘spotters’ stationed on building rooftops, armed with guns, monitoring law enforcement activity in those areas. Communication is conducted via radio,” according to the report.
The report said ICE agents have a $5,000 bounty and high-ranking officials have a $50,000 bounty.
DHS said bounties and directions were allegedly directed from Mexico.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/crime/3844197/bounties-assassinate-ice-chicago-came-from-mexico/
OBSERVATION - Gang bangers were warning before the ICE operations in Chicago that they would target federal agents. Ongoing legal wrangling may well encourage these gangs to pursue lethal actions knowing that the CPD will not go after them in an aggressive manner.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.
***
During a roundtable event at the White House yesterday, President Donald Trump said he will direct Secretary of State Marco Rubio to designate Antifa groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO).
The FTO designation would unlock new authorities the Trump administration could use to target far left groups and their support networks. Under the Bush-era Executive Order 13224, the Trump administration can freeze the assets of any FTO as well as individuals or entities that provide support, services, or assistance to FTOs.
(FO) According to Trump administration officials, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller is playing a central role in the Trump administration’s effort to investigate domestic terror networks, which includes the FBI Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTF), the IRS, the Treasury Department, the Justice Department, and the Department of Homeland Security.
According to a White House document provided to Reuters, George Soros’ Open Society Foundations, ActBlue, and activist group Indivisible were named as donors or fundraisers for protests where violent incidents occurred since 2016. “The goal is to destabilize Soros’ network,” a White House Official added.
OBSERVATION - This will affect Antifa actions in CW2 realm bigly . Follow the money, honey
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. Army is canceling billions of dollars in traditional weapons programs and replacing them with commercial-style drones after an experimental brigade achieved three times the normal enemy kill rate using tactics borrowed directly from Ukraine’s drone revolution.
Col. Joshua Glonek’s 3,500-soldier brigade from the 10th Mountain Division killed three times as many enemy fighters as typical units during an 11-day winter training exercise in Germany, according to senior Army officials. The dramatic results came after the Army equipped his unit with approximately 150 drones and dozens of loitering munitions—the same consumer-grade technology dominating battlefields in Ukraine.
During the February training exercise at a U.S. Army base in Germany, Glonek’s brigade used inexpensive reconnaissance drones to spot roughly two dozen enemy vehicles hiding under trees. Within 10 minutes, his artillery battalion aimed all cannons at the target. A volley of about 144 simulated artillery rounds followed, enough to destroy most of the vehicles.
The results impressed Gen. Randy George, the Army’s chief of staff, who touted the brigade’s success to Congress. The training demonstrated that Army formations were “capable of rapidly improving their lethality,” he told lawmakers, according to the NY Times.
But the real story goes deeper. The exercise revealed that about 90% of the brigade’s fire missions began with a drone finding the enemy and monitoring the kill. “We had more targets than we had assets to shoot them, just because the drones were so much more capable,” Glonek said.
The drone success is forcing unprecedented budget cuts. Gen. George eliminated the M-10 Booker light tank after spending more than $1 billion developing it. The reason? Military planners concluded it could be easily destroyed by a $500 to $1,000 kamikaze drone.
The Army also slashed its Joint Light Tactical Vehicle order from 50,000 units to just 18,000. The 7-ton armored troop carrier was designed to survive roadside bombs in Iraq and Afghanistan, but makes less sense in drone-dominated warfare.
Savings are being redirected to the Infantry Squad Vehicle—a dune-buggy-style troop carrier with nine seats, an engine, and roll bars. Instead of armor, it relies on speed and ability to move under tree cover to evade drone attacks.
OBSERVATIONS - Military planners need to really look closely at the rapidly evolving tactics and weapons of the Ukraine war. Then plan appropriately.
Big key here is ‘commercial grade’. The procurement side has killed many good ideas with the desire for ‘military grade’ which explodes the cost of these items by orders of magnitude.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Democrats digging holes -
“Chuck Schumer’s disgusting claim that “every day gets better“ is a sickening display of elitist indifference as the Democrat Shutdown plunges hardworking Americans into anxiety, despair, and financial ruin. His arrogance lays bare the Democrats’ sick betrayal of service members missing paychecks, families turning to food pantries to survive, small businesses teetering on the brink, and travelers facing excruciating delays.”
OBSERVATION - Democrats may think that hurting the American people is good for them in this standoff. I don’t think that is playing like that across the country.
***
The FBI has terminated two special agents linked to Jack Smith’s investigations into President Donald Trump, with personnel action taken against a third. These moves come amid growing scrutiny over the bureau’s role in what many see as a politically motivated operation against Trump and his supporters.
Details emerged this week that the agents were part of “Arctic Frost,” an FBI probe launched in April 2022 that laid the groundwork for Smith’s federal cases against Trump. That investigation zeroed in on Trump’s handling of classified documents and efforts surrounding the 2020 election, culminating in the January 6 events. Revelations show the FBI obtained phone toll records from eight Republican senators during this probe, tracking numbers dialed and call durations without content.
https://thelibertydaily.com/jack-smiths-dominoes-start-falling-two-fbi-agents/
OBSERVATION - Accountability time, not political retribution. Since they had the gall to do it to senators, just think what they were willing to do to you simply for your political views.
On a side issue, I expect that many of the FBI agents that were mixed in the J6 protests will also be on the curb for their willingness to instigate violence and rioting.
***
Speaking of accountability - A grand jury has indicted New York Attorney General Letitia James on a fraud charge, a person familiar with the matter told The Associated Press on Thursday.
The evidence, produced publicly, is very clear that she deliberately misrepresented property for loans and other govt related reasons. I wouldn’t be surprise if more charges come out sooner than later.
TRUMP Watch –
Nobel peace prize went to an unknown Venezuelan individual who has opposed Maderao regime from the shadows. Not surprising given the ultra leftists that are on the committee. Remember, they gave the prize to 0bama who did absolutely NOTHING to further peace.
Illegal Immigration –
A lot of focus continues to be on big city efforts.
Phillipines –
Washington and Manila kicked off the latest iteration of the Sama Sama naval drills on Monday in the vicinity of a western Philippine province located near South China Sea hotspots.
Sama Sama, a Tagalog word that translates to “together,” originally began as a series of maritime security drills in 2017. Since then, the U.S.-Philippine co-hosted exercise has grown to include more combat activities, as well as anti-piracy and humanitarian missions, amid Manila’s naval modernization efforts.
Participants and observers for 2025’s iterations include the U.S., Philippines, Australia, Japan, France, the United Kingdom, Thailand, Italy, Canada and New Zealand. BRP Antonio Luna (FF-151), BRP Valentin Diaz (PS-177), USS Cincinnati (LCS-20) and JS Ōnami (DD-111) are among the vessels confirmed to participate in the exercise, which is set to run Oct. 6-17.
While most activities and location areas remain unclear, a Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force news release stated that Onami will hold a tactical exercise to improve anti-surface warfare capabilities with U.S. and Philippine forces.
https://news.usni.org/2025/10/08/u-s-and-philippine-forces-drill-near-south-china-sea-flashpoint
OBSERVATION - Growth in these exercises to counter Chinese aggressive actions in the region.
***
Manila provided supplies and protection to Philippine fishermen against a fleet of Chinese patrol ships, warships and aircraft operating in the South China Sea near two disputed maritime features on Tuesday.
The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) and Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) dispatched a total of 15 cutters and offshore vessels early Tuesday to resupply and escort fishermen operating in the vicinity of the Scarborough and Sabina shoals, according to an agency press release. The assistance mission falls under the country’s Kadiwa Initiative, which aims to bolster Filipino fishery output in the disputed waters amid Chinese harassment and supply constraints.
The deployment included the country’s largest cutters, BRP Teresa Magbanua (MRRV-9701) and BRP Melchora Aquino (MRRV-9702).
Chinese forces responded by deploying 34 cutters and maritime militia vessels around the two shoals and engaged in “intimidation tactics,” according to the PCG. Footage from the PCG shows Chinese forces shadowing and closing in on the agency’s vessels.
Despite the Chinese presence, around 100 Philippine vessels received fuel, food and other supplies to extend their fishing operations in the South China Sea, reads the PCG’s news release.
OBSERVATION - I’m becoming more and more convinced that the first shots of a war with China will not break out with a move on Taiwan, but from eventually combat against the Philippines.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Russian military strength in 2020 was third to China and the United States. Russia had nearly a million active duty troops and about 12,000 tanks. Most of them are older models. By 2025 Russia was still number 3, but three years of war in Ukraine had destroyed most of Russia’s tanks, killed or wounded about a million soldiers and caused over a million Russian military age men to flee the country. Ever-growing Western economic sanctions have weakened the economy and by 2025 nearly all the national cash reserves had been spent keeping the economy going. Between now and 2030 Russian and Western economists agree that the Russian economy is in bad shape, a condition made worse since the government has converted it to a war economy, meaning civilian and infrastructure needs are neglected to support the war effort.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htworld/articles/2025101061552.aspx#gsc.tab=0
***
A Russian Navy Pacific Fleet surface group is in the Philippine Sea en route to Southeast Asia, according to the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF).
The JMSDF tracked the Russian ships Sunday as they passed between two Japanese southwest islands to enter the Philippine Sea.
The Russian Pacific Fleet routinely deploys to Southeast Asia to conduct joint exercises, training, engagement and port visits with countries in the region, except for Singapore, which imposed sanctions on Russia in February 2022 over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In retaliation, Russia in March of the same year placed Singapore on its list of unfriendly countries. Russian Navy ships no longer call into Singapore as the force had done in the past.
Russian Pacific Fleet deployments to Southeast Asia are sometimes coupled with deployments to the Middle East, as was the case with the last deployment to Southeast Asia. However, there has been no indication that the current deployment will include a voyage to the Middle East.
https://news.usni.org/2025/10/09/russian-navy-surface-group-sailing-to-southeast-asia
NUCLEAR THREATS –
ISW. The Kremlin continued its reflexive control campaign aimed at deterring the United States from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, including by threatening to deploy Russian missiles to Cuba. The Kremlin is trying to invoke memories of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis to threaten the United States.
ALSO - There are rumors that Russia has moved some nuclear weapons into Venezuela as a counter to US actions in the region.
Economic Impact –
Russia’s metallurgical industry is facing its worst crisis since the 1990s, Moscow Times reports. Due to plummeting demand, high interest rates, and collapsing output, steel plants are cutting staff and considering four-day workweeks. Sanctions have wiped out a third of exports, and production is down over 10% year-on-year. Even the arms industry’s demand can’t offset the decline.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1976562167865340129?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - A point of sanctions are special metals necessary to strengthen steel for military purposes. Those metals have been hard for Russia to come by due to sanctions.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with increasing rain across the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reported on the overnight missile and drone attack.
Shot down:
405/465 Shahed and other type drones
1/2 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
4/14 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
9/12 Iskander-K cruise missiles
1/4 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
In addition, 4 missiles did not reach their targets (lost locationally, crash sites are being clarified).
Emergency blackouts have been implemented in parts of Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions following Russia’s mass strike, DTEK reports. Power cuts are ongoing in Brovary and Boryspil districts, while in Kryvyi Rih, rolling outages are underway. Critical infrastructure is switching to generators, according to local officials. Additional power outages across Donetsk, Kharkiv, Poltava, Odesa, and more.
Russian losses per 10/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1120 men
+5 tanks
+14 AFVs
+13 artillery
Russia is heavily counterattacking near Dobropillia after earlier Ukrainian gains. Yesterday, they launched multiple mechanized assaults on Vodymyrivka, deploying at least 16 vehicles, including IFVs, tanks, and motorcycles, and landed a large infantry force of 50–75 troops in the village. Heavy fighting is still ongoing.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Heavy drone/missile strikes on Ukraine power grid, like Russia did last year. This has spurred talk of Ukraine targeting power production around the Moscow region, so that they can feel the same pain. Ukraine has a lot more capability in that realm than last year and Russia has shown great weakness in protecting its petroleum industry, now poetically having to spread available assets even further.
Spike in Russian armor losses, reflecting increased combat on the ground. The ‘gray zones’ on the battlefield continue to be lethal kill zones for Russian equipment and soldiers. FPV drones supported by surveillance drones continue to rule the battlefield.
Europe / NATO General –
NATO’s annual nuclear deterrence exercise, Steadfast Noon, will be hosted by the Netherlands and start next week, with 71 aircraft from 14 nations taking part, officials from the Western military alliance said on Friday.
The exercise “sends a clear signal to any potential adversary that we will and can protect and defend all allies against all threats,” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said.
Jim Stokes, NATO’s director of nuclear policy, told reporters at alliance headquarters in Brussels that Steadfast Noon was “routine” and “not directed at any country”.
“It’s also not linked to any real-world events,” he said.
Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level ADVISORY - OCT 10, 2025 - NEW
Pakistan’s Air Force conducted an air strike against Noor Wali Mehsud, a high-ranking member of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, in Kabul, Afghanistan this week. The Pakistani Defense minister warned Afghanistan that strikes would continue against militants and their backers.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Both sides have finalized their agreements to the Phase 1 plan. 72 hour clock is now ticking.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The United States is sending about 200 troops to Israel to help support and monitor the ceasefire deal in Gaza as part of a team that includes partner nations, nongovernmental organizations, and private sector players, U.S. officials said Thursday.
The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss details not authorized for release, said U.S. Central Command is going to establish a “civil-military coordination center” in Israel that will help facilitate the flow of humanitarian aid as well as logistical and security assistance into the territory wracked by two years of war.
OBSERVATION - The US is not the only country that will be sending forces into Gaza, but will be the biggest and directing the actions of all.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Overnight, the Israeli government approved the ceasefire agreement in Gaza.
The Israeli army officially announces that the ceasefire agreement has come into effect as of 12:00 PM local time, 20 minutes ago. Israeli forces have taken up positions along the updated deployment lines (Yellow) in accordance with the ceasefire framework and the return of the hostages
Reports from Gaza indicate that IDF tanks have pulled back from the coastal road in Nuseirat, opening the way for residents to move freely between the northern and southern parts of the Strip.
Large numbers of Gazans are making their way back to northern Gaza after the Israeli withdrawal
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Authorities warned of a possible terrorist infiltration in the West Bank settlement Kohav HaShahar on Friday morning.
A report of a suspected attempt to break into a house in Kohav HaShahar was received by the IDF earlier this morning, the military confirmed. Security forces were dispatched to the scene to conduct searches for the suspected intruder in the area.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-870007
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Iranian-backed groups like the Houthis in Yemen use Western cellphones to track merchant ships in the Red Sea. They do this by pinging ships for their GPS locations. Even on warships, where communications are encrypted, sailors’ phones are not. This allows ships to be tracked and attacked with drone speedboats armed with explosives, anti-ship missiles, or naval mines.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htiw/articles/2025100963910.aspx#gsc.tab=0
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Let me clear something up - this war is far from being over. Hamas has pledged to remove Israel off the map, one way or another. Many expect them to fully resist the implementation of Phase 2 - their disarmament and total removal from power. For right now, the euphoria of the hostage release is obscuring that fact.
If Hamas keeps its word, all the living hostages should be returned to Israel by Monday afternoon (Israel time) at the latest.
There are some nasty rumors that the vehicles carrying the hostages back to Israeli hands will be mobbed by Gazans. One view is that they will try to prevent the release and ‘recapture’ them. This is fully possible and they did it with previous handovers, though they didn’t try to recapture them. Also unconfirmed is that Israel has warned Hamas that any attempt by these mobs to try to prevent the repatriation of the hostages will be met by lethal means.
So far there have been no serious violations of the ceasefire. Uncontrolled flow of gazans back to the north may well contain Hamas forces moving under the cover of the masses, which may in the future become an issue.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Iran warns that “the ceasefire in Gaza may be the reason for the collapse of the ceasefire in other places,” according to an advisor to Supreme Leader Khamenei.
OBSERVATION - Rather vague statement, but may be one of concern that Israel will be free to direct more pressure on Iran with possibly more strikes on attempts to rebuild their nuclear program.
Central / South America General-
Peru’s Congress voted overnight to remove former President Dina Boluarte (a socialist) and replace her with President of the Congress Jose Jeri (Christian democrat) after several members of Congress were injured in a concert shooting. Jeri immediately promised to “declare a war on crime.”
OBSERVATION - A rightward shift in Peruvian politics. Reflects other recent rightward shifts in central and south America.