Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Most people on the right have no idea just how crazed many people on the left have become. Right now, a conspiracy theory which claims that President Trump is preparing to declare martial law in the United States is spreading like wildfire on social media. According to that conspiracy theory, a report will be submitted to President Trump on April 20th which will recommend that he should invoke the Insurrection Act to help deal with the border crisis. That would allow U.S. troops to help secure the border, but many leftists are convinced that President Trump will also use U.S. troops to round up political activists and send them to prisons in El Salvador. I realize that this may sound really bizarre to many of you, but this is what many of them actually believe.
But this is what they actually believe, and they are going to act accordingly.
OBSERVATION - Stories like this are spreading widely across the inter web homes of leftists. The link clarifies some of the misconceptions by the left, but that doesn’t seem to phase them. As it is just 5 days away, there is the possibility of some act by these true believers to destroy or riot. Organization of such is largely absent on the OSINT channels I monitor though. Just something to file in the back of your mind. The left is continuing to press for violence and this is another outgrowth.
***
A legal organization with ties to the far-left Antifa movement has joined forces with anti-Tesla activists angry about CEO Elon Musk’s role in the Trump administration.
The Oregon-based Civil Liberties Defense Center (CLDC) has been giving virtual training to groups leading anti-Tesla protests. The CLDC is known to help alleged Antifa agitators fight charges in court, adheres to their anti-police ideology and lost one of its volunteer workers in a shootout with law enforcement in 2019.
“It’s time to be strategic and effective, but it’s not time to be afraid or silenced,” CLDC Executive Director Lauren Regan told a virtual audience in a March 19 “Tesla Takedown” video call. She warned that protesters should be aware of their “geography” to avoid getting arrested.
OBSERVATION - Double billed under (Domestic) Terrorism. Laying down legal defense foundations are an indicator of the desire to escalate violent actions in the future.
Also note - they are aware that their legal environment has changed significantly since 2020, with acts of domestic terror actually having individuals arrested and prosecuted.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Apr 14, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
- Concern for a potential Islamic terror strike on US hospital(s) by the end of the month, first part of April. UPDATE, maintaining this part of the warning until after Holy Week is ended
Holy Week begins with Palm Sunday today thru next Sunday (Resurrection Sunday). Elevated concerns for islamic terror across the world.
***
AG Pam Bondi announces an arrest has been made in connection to the terrorist attack on a Tesla dealership in New Mexico and the New Mexico Republican Party Headquarters.
Jamison Wagner, 40, has been federally charged with arson attacks on Tesla and the New Mexico GOP HQ.
“We are seeking up to 40 years in prison—no negotiating.”
Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025
Stocks and bonds are expected to continue a roller coaster ride this week.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
A lot of the heavy airlift of suspected air defense systems to the middle east tracked by OSINT watchers has died down with the exception of continued C17 traffic into Israel and Diego Garcia. These observers suggest this may be resupply flights for more air defense missiles as well as B2 munitions for potential Iranian action as well as ongoing support of attacks against the Houthis.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
A peer-reviewed study published last week in Immunity, Inflammation and Disease adds to the growing scientific evidence that mRNA COVID-19 vaccines can cause the body to continue producing the spike protein much longer than expected, leading to immune system dysregulation.
OBSERVATION - This is foundational basis for countless lawsuits against Pfizer and Moderna.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The White House has started notifying Congress of a plan to eliminate all public broadcasting funding and codify foreign aid cuts identified by Elon Musk’s DOGE. Key proposed cuts include $1.1 billion for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which funds PBS and NPR, and $8.3 billion from USAID - NYP
OBSERVATION - Defunding is long overdue.
***
Ongoing lawfare regarding deportation of illegals, more activist district judges peep up.
TRUMP Watch –
President Donald Trump meet with El Salvador President Nayib Bukele in the Oval Office on Monday, April 14. Bukele turned El Salvador from one of the most violent countries into the world into one of the safest with his crackdown on criminal gangs, receiving the highest travel safety rating from the State Department last week.
Illegal Immigration –
Another district judge interfering with executive action trying to block the biden ‘pardons’ of illegals into there country.
China -
Officially stops exports of rare earth metals to the US today.
Called for support against the US on tariffs at an Asian cooperative meeting. China was rebuked by attendees for its aggressive actions against member nations in the S China Sea regions.
Japan –
Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba and NATO Secretary General Rutte released a joint statement declaring the “peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as an indispensable element in security.” At the meeting, Rutte also said the U.S. is pushing for increased power projection from NATO into the Indo-Pacific.
Russia -
Reports are now surfacing that Russia has requested basing for long-range strategic bombers in Indonesia. Janes, citing unnamed Indonesian officials close to the matter, has seemingly confirmed earlier reporting that Indonesian decision-makers were indeed approached by their Russian counterparts back in February 2025. The Russian request for such a deal, which Australian officials say has yet to be decided on, would put Russian strike assets, and presumably Chinese as well, within range of key U.S. and partner nation installations.
OBSERVATION - Russia seeking power projection options for the western Pacific region, including key military facilities such as Guam and Diego Garcia.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 70.
Yesterday was the anniversary of the sinking of the Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship “Moskva” by Ukraine sea borne drones. It marked the decline and essential defeat of the fleet over the next year, with Ukraine gaining free movement of its elements across the western Black Sea area, and Russian fleet assets essentially abandoning Crimean ports for Russian ports further away from Ukraine, where they have more or less remained docked.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 26 Shahed-type drones overnight
Last night, Ukrainian forces struck military unit 35535 — the base of Russia’s 448th missile brigade in Klyukva, Kursk region. This brigade had reportedly been launching Iskander missile attacks on the city of Sumy.
Explosive night in Russia: Over 30 blasts rocked Kursk due to a massive drone attack — Russian media. 115 UAVs reportedly targeted 5 regions across Russia, including Moscow oblast.
Russian losses per 15/04/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff
+1180 men
+7 tanks
+20 AFVs
+68 artillery
+2 MLRS
+2 AD systems
Sumy -
There continues to be high concentrations of Russia air strikes in the region between Sumy and the border, with no associated ground activity. Continues to look like preparation of the battlefield for a potential large Russian assault.
Summary —
Moderate levels of fighting along the front. Still “abnormal” Russian glide bomb attacks in the Suma region suggesting battlefield preparation for a potential Russian offensive into the region.
Yesterday I made an error and called the German cruise missiles “heavy Shadow Cruise missiles,” they are correctly called Tarus. Should Ukraine get these weapons, the game is on as to how soon they would use them to strike the Kerch Strait bridge. Destruction of the bridge would seriously impact Russian logistic support to the southern portions of the front via Crimea. The options for Russia would be to resume hazardous ferry operations across the strait - heavily damaged last year by Ukraine drones - or an equally dangerous land route thru occupied territory in southeastern Ukraine.
In today’s dynamic, it appears Germany’s new PM is all supporting of the use against the bridge. The destruction of which could trigger significant responses by putin against Ukraine and more dangerously, against Germany or other NATO element. See “Europe / NATO General” below
Ukraine’s new extended range Neptune cruise missile has the capability to hit the bridge, but is limited in explosives, with the Tarus carrying a larger warhead more suitable to destroy the bridge structure.
Over the past months, Ukraine has maintained pressures on Russian ADA assets in Crimea using sea launched UAVs to strike radars and batteries. Likely in anticipation of an attempt on the bridge some time in the future.
Europe / NATO General –
German Chancellor Fritz Merz who upped-the-ante in the most dangerous way since the start of the conflict. Merz suggested on April 13 that long-range “Taurus” missiles, if delivered to Ukraine, could be used to target strategic Russian military infrastructure in occupied Crimea, including the Kerch Bridge.
The 19-kilometer-long (12-mile) Crimean (Kerch) Bridge, was constructed following Crimea voting in a public referendum to secede from Ukraine and join Russia in 2014. The bridge was completed in 2018, and serves as a vital supply route for Russian forces. The bridge has been targeted by Ukraine multiple times, suffering heavy damage in strikes in October 2022 and July 2023.
In an interview with ARD’s Caren Miosga, Merz emphasized the need to support Ukraine in moving from a reactive to a proactive stance on the battlefield, saying Kyiv must be equipped to “shape events” and “get ahead of the situation.”
“If things continue as they are, if, for example, the most important land connection between Russia and Crimea is destroyed, or if something happens on Crimea itself, where most of the Russian military logistics are located, then that would be an opportunity to bring this country strategically back into the picture finally,” Merz said.
While outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz has repeatedly blocked the delivery of Taurus missiles over his concerns about escalation, Merz has long criticized that stance.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- More back and forth on hostage releases and associate ceasefires. Hamas has rejected all offers.
- Israel receives munitions held back by biden administration
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The proposal, passed to Hamas by Egypt and confirmed by multiple Arab outlets Monday, calls for the release of 10 hostages in exchange for 120 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences. It also outlines a framework for a permanent ceasefire and the removal of Hamas’ weapons.
Senior Hamas official: The movement is examining the Israeli proposal that was submitted, which includes a first phase of a 45-day ceasefire, discussions on a permanent ceasefire, disarmament of Hamas, and the release of hostages and bodies in stages. The official response is expected shortly, probably within 48 hours.
Hamas: Israel wants to return the hostages without entering the second phase, and this is unacceptable.
Reuters, citing Egyptian and Palestinian sources: No breakthrough in Gaza talks
***
Israeli Air Force is set to receive over 3,000 U.S.-made munitions to boost readiness for expanded invasion in Gaza, with attention also on Iran.
An additional 10,000 air-to-ground munitions—previously frozen under Biden—will be transferred following Trump’s return to the White House.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Gaza - Hamas continues to loose terrain a bite at a time. A lot of huff and fuss over hostage / ceasefire proposals, but Hamas is rejecting them. The fact that they are entertaining releasing a lot more hostages (living and dead) for fewer prisoners suggests that the squeeze is on big time and they are losing their leverage.
Lebanon and Syria relatively stable.
Houthi continue to get hammered daily.
Iran - confusing messages from the WH - See Iran below.
Iran –
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window
Iranian media citing Khamenei: The first steps of the Omani negotiations were “good”
Iranian media citing Khamenei: Tehran should not link its national affairs to talks with the United States
UN nuclear watchdog chief to arrive in Tehran on Wednesday - state media
Axios: A second round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran is expected to take place in Rome on Saturday, two sources with knowledge of the issue said
TRUMP: Iran is very close to having a nuclear weapon. If military intervention is necessary, we will do it.
Iran has to get rid of the concept of a nuclear weapon. They cannot have a nuclear weapon. If we have to something very harsh, we will do it.
OBSERVATION - There are two stories coming from DC regarding the US position. Wickoff’s statements suggest a very milk toast demand on Iran’s nuclear ambitions. OTOH Trump / Rubio are very much hawkish and saying all nuclear ambitions have to go. Who’s speaking for who at this stage.
Remember, Islamic views strength matters. Trump has laid a line in the sand - two months. Should he obfuscate that line and delay, it would indicate to Iran weakness that would cause them to continue to delay and deny any progress towards a disarmament agreement on the nuclear program.
Next Saturday’s round of indirect ‘discussions’ has to clarify and unify the US position to Iran with out a shadow of a doubt.
Saudi Arabia –
Saudi Arabia and the US are set to develop a civil nuclear program. US Energy Secretary stated that a broad energy cooperation agreement will be signed within weeks, with a nuclear deal within months.
OBSERVATION - A civilian nuclear program for Saudi Arabia has been floating about for many years, strongly opposed by Israel for concerns that it could be adapted into a cover for a nuclear weapon program. Those fears apparently have eased over time.
Syria -
The new Syrian President, Ahmad Al-Sharaa (Al-Jolani) met with an Israeli delegation in Abu Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates yesterday
Reportedly, the two sides discussed the possibility of a normalization of ties between Syria and Israel, as well as Emirati investments into Syrian infrastructure.
(Middle East Spectator)
.
Mexico -
President Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico will deliver more water to Texas under a 1944 water treaty, after the Trump administration threatened to levy sanctions on Mexico for shorting deliveries. Sheinbaum said Mexico is working to alleviate its own water shortages, and will increase water deliveries so long as they do not negatively impact Mexico’s water shortages.
Misc of Note –
M 5.2 - 5 km S of Julian, CA caused quite a stir yesterday among the kalifornia is falling off into the ocean crowd. Quake along the active Elsinore Fault zone is not an uncommon event. But it should serve as a reminder to Freepers who live in seismically hazardous zones to check on their preps. Make sure you have earthquake riders on your property insurance and have your food/water/shelter plans in place should a big one hit.
Thanks Godzilla
The DUmmies are taking this seriously.
https://democraticunderground.com/100220237560
https://democraticunderground.com/1016402309
We need to take them seriously. Crazy people are very unpredictable.
Nope. Witkoff has been essentially repeating 0bama era points with no urgency
Iran sees this as weakness. While trump is ready to put the hammer down and gave a deadline. Witkoff needs to get in sync with his boss.
Our guys need to attack the press for helping to spread these crystal ball fantasies the left congers up.
Or maybe we should create lies about them - stuff that never comes true but allows our people to hate all democrats... Nah, just kidding. We don't need or want to become sickos like they are... Or we should just tell them to put up or shut up.
When this latest lie turns out NOT TO BE TRUE, the dnc machine will grind out new lies that will turn out NOT TO BE TRUE. Then the whole process starts over. Maybe some national ads debunking a lot of them might be fun.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Apr 14, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
- Concern for a potential Islamic terror strike on US hospital(s) by the end of the month, first part of April. UPDATE, maintaining this part of the warning until after Holy Week is ended
Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025
Stocks and bonds are expected to continue a roller coaster ride this week.
***
Over 130 countries are negotiating with the US to move towards zero tariffs.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Israel media: US security officials have informed Israel’s defense establishment that a phased withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Syria will begin within two months
***
Politico is now reporting that in addition to Dan Caldwell, a top adviser to Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth; the Pentagon’s Deputy Chief of Staff, Darin Selnick, was also escorted out of the building by security and placed on administrative leave earlier Tuesday, as part of the same ongoing investigation into “unauthorized disclosures/leaks” from the Department of Defense. Selnick served in the White House and the Department of Veterans Affairs during President Trump’s first presidential term, and earlier this year performed the duties of Acting Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness.
OBSERVATION - Two big advisors out. When will charges be filed?
TRUMP Watch –
Trump will skip the White House Correspondents’ Dinner on April 26 as his allies continue to float plans for a rival event on the same day, Axios reported.
Illegal Immigration –
Daily Border Encounters:
March 2024 under Biden: 4,488
March 2025 under Trump: 264
China -
White House:
China now faces up to a 245% tariff on imports to the United States as a result of its retaliatory actions.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 70.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian Parliament has voted to extend martial law until 6th August
Overnight, Russia launched 97 Shahed drones of which 57 were shot down and another 34 were either suppressed by electronic warfare or did not reach their intended target and were lost in location.
3 people wounded as result of drone strikes in Odesa. Drone related explosions reported in Pavlohrad, Kamianske and Sumy
Russian losses per 16/04/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff
+1050 men
+9 tanks
+13 AFVs
+87 artillery
Summary —
Drones continue to out fox Ukraine ADA and find targets.
Ground fighting has the appearance of moderate levels of fighting, through there are reports that Russia continues to launch company - battalion level mechanized assaults that get picked apart by Ukraine FPV drones rather quickly.
If it is possible for peace talks to have regressed, well they have. Russia continues to press for a complete surrender of Ukraine and ceding all territory it desires back to Russia.
ISRAEL –
——— GENERAL ——————————-
White House Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff has now walked back his comments last night on Fox News that described a conceptual Iran proposal eerily reminiscent of the failed Obama-era JCPOA (Iran Deal) framework. About an hour ago, Ambassador Witkoff returned to the Trump administration’s previous sentiments on the process, saying that “Iran must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program.”
A very important X post from Steve Witkoff, which clarifies (contrary to what was implied in his words yesterday) that Iran cannot have the ability to enrich uranium, and must dismantle the relevant infrastructure.
Witkoff’s statement last night raised serious concerns in Israel.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
The IDF and Shin Bet announced Wednesday it eliminated Mahmud Ibrahim Hasan Abu Hisirah, a member of Hamas’ elite Nukhba force who took part in the July 28, 2014, infiltration attack during Operation Protective Edge, when five Israeli soldiers were killed near Nahal Oz.
According to the IDF, Abu Hassira was a top Hamas operative and the deputy of Hamas’ Gaza City Brigade commander Izz al-Din Haddad — one of the terror group’s two most senior military leaders in the Strip. He was killed several days ago in an airstrike in Gaza City, reportedly carried out last Thursday.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hydkhhna1e
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Multiple drone strikes targeting probable Hezbollah leaders or teams in S Lebanon.
***
Following president of Lebanon’s order to fully disarm Hezbollah, Lebanese military has started to remove all signs and banners of Hezbollah from Beirut.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Over a dozen overnight airstrikes by US forces on Houthi targets.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Iranian Foreign Ministry: Tehran strongly condemns the ongoing US airstrikes on Yemen and expresses its solidarity with the Yemeni people.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
IAF made several airstrikes in Gaza and used pinpoint drone strikes in S Lebanon.
Looking like Lebanon is getting started on hold up its end of the ceasefire agreement. Rather symbolic removals of Hezbollah propaganda banners and signs in the country. Easy since the signs are not armed. Dealing with Hezbollah proper is another matter.
Witkoff’s waffling statements over Iran and and nuclear deal continue to echo. Good news is it seems Trump has gotten his attention and focused him on Trump’s priorities, not his own. Bad new is that he has placed the US in a more difficult negotiating position of one having to reassert itself. Iran is driving the agenda and press releases at the moment. And see below under Iran - US weakness has emboldened Iran. Trump may grant some flexibility in the two month warning, but not much.
Iran –
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi: Tehran’s right to enrich uranium is not subject to negotiations with the US
JORDAN -
Jordan has announced that it has arrested 16 people, thwarting a plot that threatened national security, involving rockets, explosives, and a factory to make drones.
OBSERVATION - Jordan has a growing islamist / jihadist movement that has been developing over the past several plus years. It has forced the king of Jordan more towards the jihadi’s in his country in order to avoid an open civil war. This has resulted in increasingly strained relations with Israel. Jordan’s support for Israel in the recent Iranian missile attacks was due to the greater hatred by Jordanian sunnis towards shia Iran over Israel
What’s this?! A return to honest COMEDY in the United States of America?
OMG, it’s a great idea.
Thanks pundit...
Globalism / Great Reset –
(LifeSiteNews) — Representatives of WHO member states have agreed on a draft of the “pandemic accord” that is scheduled to be voted on next month.
“The nations of the world made history in Geneva today,” Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the WHO, said after the member states agreed on the draft of the pandemic treaty on Wednesday.
The WHO claims that the “proposal affirms the sovereignty of countries to address public health matters within their borders, and provides that nothing in the draft agreement shall be interpreted as providing WHO any authority to direct, order, alter or prescribe national laws or policies, or mandate States to take specific actions, such as ban or accept travellers, impose vaccination mandates or therapeutic or diagnostic measures or implement lockdowns.”
OBSERVATION - Back like a bad check. They are taking measures to distance this agreement from previous iterations that sought to place WHO control over the sovereignty of aligned nations. You can bet your bottom dollar that buried within this document are the provisions that can be modified to add these controls at a later date.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Weekend fast approaching. No significant and potentially violent protests/rallies on the agenda. As always, in liberal strongholds, keep situationally alert.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Apr 14, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
- Concern for a potential Islamic terror strike on US hospital(s) by the end of the month, first part of April. UPDATE, maintaining this part of the warning until after Holy Week is ended
Tesla update. No reported attacks on Tesla dealerships, and vandalism to individually owned vehicles seems to be down, judging by the drop in reporting. This drop could also be indicative of a lack of current interest.
I suspect that the Tesla vandalism is a fad that is decaying due to the fact that law enforcement and DAs are not treating violators in a catch and release fashion. They have been relatively quick to identify perps, arrest and hit them with felony charges. Perps once identified publicly, have lost their jobs too. Hitting them legally and financially. This seems to have created a deterrent to others contemplating similar violence / vandalism.
Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025
Stocks and bonds are expected to continue a roller coaster ride this week.
***
US stocks took another tumble Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that President Donald Trump’s tariffs are ‘highly likely’ to cause more inflation.
‘The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated,’ Powell said at an event in Chicago. ‘The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.
‘Tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation. The inflationary effects could also be more persistent,’ he added.
OBSERVATION - Powell is no friend of the Trump administration or his policies. Note, Dow futures are higher overnight.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
US planning for the eventual withdrawal from Syria within the next two months. Moving forces into Kurdish Iraq.
POLITICAL FRONT –
U.S. District Judge James Boasberg has issued a scathing 46-page ruling finding members of President Trump’s administration in criminal contempt—despite the Supreme Court vacating the very orders Boasberg claims were defied.
OBSERVATION - Growing constitutional crisis continues. A vacated order from the USSC stating Boasberg has no jurisdiction - yet HE wants to defy the USSC. IMHO Boasberg can go pound sand.
***
Politico reported this afternoon that a third top official in the Defense Department was put on administrative leave Wednesday and escorted out of the building.
The man in question is Colin Carroll, chief of staff to Deputy Defense Secretary Stephen Feinberg.
As Politico notes, Carroll is a Marine Corps Reserve officer who has worked at Anduril, a defense contractor that specializes in autonomous systems.
As TGP notes, Caldwell was also part of the Mike Waltz Houthi Signal chat group.
OBSERVATION - A lot of focus in bearing down on Carroll, in part for his participation in the Houthi call, but also for discoveries of his opposition to Trump agenda items. Report indicate that lie detector testing has been an integral part of this investigation. If you’ve never been thru one, like I have, they can make water boarding look tame.
Illegal Immigration –
The legal squabble surrounding deported MS-13 terrorist Kilmar Abrego Garcia continues to swirl as documentation of his gang affiliation, human trafficking and serial spouse abuse comes to the forefront.
China -
The Communist Chinese have accomplished what many people believed was only a matter of time. Beijing has nearly destroyed the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong as the city’s Democratic Party, the largest opposition party, is disbanding.
Sheer brutality and the use of modern instruments of oppression accomplished what many activists in Hong Kong believed couldn’t be done. Perhaps they were naive in thinking that Beijing wanted a “two systems, one China” policy. Maybe they were crazy to think that Beijing meant to keep its promise to maintain Hong Kong’s autonomy for 50 years after Beijing regained control of the city in 1997.
Beijing was always playing the long game. China is an ancient country that is used to thinking in terms of centuries, not decades. It has a plan to reintegrate Hong Kong into the Chinese state, and nothing would happen that interfered with that plan. Using intimidation and draconian “security” laws, Beijing has successfully stymied the movement to maintain Hong Kong’s position as a quasi-independent city and will now complete the process of making Hong Kong just another city in China after the Democratic Party disbands.
It’s difficult to remember that when the British handed over Hong Kong to Beijing, there was hope that the Communists would keep their word and allow Hong Kong to maintain its civil liberties. For a while, Beijing kept its promise. But the noose gradually tightened, choking off any hope for freedom.
“We have not achieved what we set out to do,” Fred Li, a founding member of the party, said in an interview. “Without money or resources, we can’t even survive ourselves.”
OBSERVATION - Tracked this over the course of years. The final straw can be linked to the Wuhan crackdown measures that were severely put in place on Hong Kong and permitted the final choking off of the freedom and independence movement.
***
China ordered its airlines to refuse to take delivery of all Boeing aircraft and their replacement parts on Tuesday in response to the 145% tariffs. The government is looking to assist its companies with their losses.
***
The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) has announced additional sanctions against a number entities and vessels based in China, Hong Kong, Panama, and the Marshall Islands for “facilitating Iranian oil shipments to China as part of Iran’s ‘shadow fleet.’”
Most notably, the latest list of targeted entities includes a Chinese “teapot” oil refinery, Shandong Shengxing Chemical Co., Ltd., for purchasing over $1 billion worth of Iranian crude oil.
OBSERVATION - These “shadow’ fleets have been the life blood for Iran and Russia to work around sanctions.
***
There are rumors afloat that there are secret talks between China and the US to come to some kind of agreement over the current trade dispute. This centers around the replacement of China’s current negotiator / diplomat with another with the thought that ‘new blood’ the stalemate can be broken. Skeptical but monitoring.
North/South Korea –
The U.S. and Korea performed a show of force against the North Koreans and Chinese with a pair of fighter-escorted B-1B bombers flying over the peninsula on former North Korean leader Kim Il-sung’s birthday.
Japan –
Trump on Wednesday inserted himself directly into trade talks with Japanese officials, a sign of the high stakes for the United States after its tariffs rattled the economy and caused the administration to assure the public that it would quickly reach deals.
The Republican president attended the meeting alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, top economic advisers with a central role in his trade and tariff policies.
“Hopefully something can be worked out which is good (GREAT!) for Japan and the USA!” Trump wrote in a social media post ahead of the meeting.
OBSERVATION - Trump recognizes the special relationship with Japan and is giving them a degree of preferential treatment.
Phillipines –
South China Sea: Two Chinese Coast Guard vessels harassing a small Philippine boat near Scarborough Shoal.
Video shows the Chinese vessels hitting the boat with water from high pressure hoses / pumps. Tactic that has been increasingly employed over the past couple years and can disable a small boat.
OBSERVATION - As China continues these aggressive measures against Philippines and other western Pacific / Asian nations the potential for an armed clash grows. This fire hosing tactic is not passive, but has caused serious injuries in the past and is a direct assault on the territorial rights of Philippines and others.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 70.
RUMINT –
InformNapalm -a volunteer intelligence community focused on exposing Russia’s military activities- reports that Russian forces may be using chemical agents on Shahed drones to harm those collecting wreckage according to sources within the Ukrainian military.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 75 Shahed drones at Ukraine. A total of 25 were shot down, and 30 more were suppressed by EW or were lost in location.
Dnipro faced the brunt of the Shahed attack with at least 10 finding their target. Many fires in the city after the raid. At least 2 children wounded. Extensive damage in the central part of the city
Russian Ministry of Defense claims shooting down 71 drones overnight.
Overnight, another strike hit Russia’s 112th Missile Brigade (Shuya, Ivanovo region). Ukrainian drones targeted weapon depots, personnel quarters, vehicle shelters, a power substation, and a water tower. This is the same brigade that attacked Sumy days ago.
Russian losses per 17/04/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff.
+1230 men
+16 tanks
+54 AFVs
+65 artillery
+2 MLRS
+3 AD systems
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Preobrazhenka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Yesterday, Russian forces launched a large-scale (battalion sized) assault in southern Ukraine near Pyatykhatky, Stepove, Lobkove, Mala Tokmachka & Mali Shcherbaky with ~320 troops, ~40 armored vehicles, 3 tanks & 10 buggies.
Ukrainian defenders, warned by aerial recon, hit them with drones & artillery. After a 2-hour battle, 29 vehicles and 140 Russians were destroyed. No Ukrainian positions were lost.
Summary —
Deteriorating Shahed defense due to new Russia tactics continues to cause a lot of damage to Ukraine.
The news of another mechanized attack of a battalion sized unit in S Ukraine suggests Russia is trying to get that method of warfare working in its favor as a means to break thru Ukraine defenses and exploit for more territorial gains. The Ukrainian response to this unsupported Russian attack shows just how lethal the battlefield has become for mechanized units to trundle in line down a road. The Russia unit was all on its own, no apparent supporting attacks from adjacent units. These attacks just cause Russia to lose scarce armored resources.
Europe / NATO General –
Britain backs Germany’s potential decision to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine — a boost for incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz. He insists on UK & French agreement before delivery, but still faces coalition divisions over the move.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Questions of reported delays in an expected attack on Iran.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
The IDF says it’s steadily increasing pressure on Hamxs to secure a hostage deal but has not launched a full offensive yet to avoid collapsing negotiations. No date has been set for such an operation, which would be decided by Israel’s leadership.
Now approximately 40% of Gaza is under Israeli control.
***
The Wall Street Journal this morning: Hamas is in serious financial trouble and cannot pay salaries to terrorists and govt officials.
NOTE - Combination of destruction of money flow into Gaza and tight control of food / aid coming in that is basically hijacked by Hamas et al and resold in the market place.
***
Israeli journalists reportedly have leaked plans for an Israeli commando unit to infiltrate into Iran and take out key nuclear facilities in that manner and rely less on air strikes. Reports indicate the joint Israeli / US operation would not be ready until October.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF hit motorcycles / vehicles suspected of carrying Hezbollah members using rockets fired by drones.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Around 20 large U.S. strikes were reported earlier near the Al-Hafa Military Base on the outskirts of the Houthi capital of Sana’a in Yemen (map). Al-Hafa was a Saleh-era underground base and is a known location of Houthi underground facilities.
Additional:
The site has been under expansion since the Houthis took the Yemeni capital of Sana’a back in 2014 and was targeted before the current U.S. involvement by the Saudi-led coalition at least twice in 2021 and 2022
***
Al Arabiya Network: US strikes in Yemen tonight were the most powerful in the past month
Arab media outlets are reporting nearly 30 overnight attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen, including about 20 in the Sana’a province. According to these sources, the attacks were particularly powerful due to the type of bombs used.
According to Al Jazeera, within 24 hours the US carried out 68 attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen.
***
Talk from arab media suggests that the extent of the destruction brought on by the US attacks have set up conditions favorable for the proper govt of Yemen to take actions to eliminate the Houthis.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Gaza - Hamas is hurting structurally and morally. Evidenced by Hamas offering more and more hostages in exchange for a ceasefire. Israel continues to put the pressure on, increasing from 30 to now 40% control of the strip. Hamas is running out of places to hide as well as resources to fight with.
Lebanon and Syria - Almost routine targeting of Hezbollah elements by drones. Otherwise relatively quiet on this front.
Houthis ballistic missile attacks becoming further and further apart.
“Leaks” of battle plans proliferating from Israel and the US. Indications suggest these are efforts to stop / delay actions against Iran, like the leak of the Israeli strike last year that caused a reset of Israeli planning.
Iran still ticking. See below
Iran –
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window
US. Advises Israeli Officials to Delay Strikes on Iran:
Citing unnamed Trump administration officials with knowledge on the matter, the New York Times (NYT) reported that top Israeli decision-makers planned to conduct strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities as early as next month but were told by the U.S. “that the White House wanted to put the plan to attack the [Iranian] nuclear facility on hold. Officials also told the NYT that most, if not all, of Israel’s concepts of operations (CONOP) would need the U.S. to directly support and/or participate in the strikes if they wanted to achieve said strike’s operational goals. During their recent meeting in Washington, D.C., U.S. President Donald J. Trump also reportedly told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. would not support any unilateral Israeli strikes on Iran while U.S.-Iran nuclear talks are ongoing.
OBSERVATION - A great deal of conflicting reports surrounding this information which was “released” by an unnamed “official”. Some claim this is a planted report designed to try to split Trump / Netanyahu. Other claims that this report was “leaked” by leftist Israeli journalists.
OTOH, Trump has made swift changes to military options towards Iran in the past. As 45, Trump called off an airstrike on Iran due to what he perceived as too many potential civilian casualties. But in other cases, he drops the MOAB like he did on the Taliban.
Witkoff’s recent 180 on the US position towards Iran’s nuclear program indicates that the military option is still very much on the table.
He has staked a lot of credibility on his warning that Iran can denuclearize its program the easy or the hard. He restated that demand yesterday. At this stage he can afford a little flexibility, but not the multiple months (years) that Iran wants to drag this out over.
I don’t think Iran is out of the woods yet.
***
Not a nuclear physicist but read an article from a group that monitors Iran and they indicate that Iran can create a bomb very quickly. They use a baseline of 17 KG of purified Uranium for the optimum bomb, and has the capability to enrich enough for 5 bombs of that size within a couple weeks. Computer simulation and protected tests of the triggering device could already been conducted or quickly done. Should Iran decide to go with a smaller bomb, say with half the uranium, they would get a lower yield, but a more transportable and deliverable weapon.
There would still be some obstacles in getting a package that can deliver it to Israel or other target. First is the creation of a warhead that its missiles can actually lift and deliver the desired distance. Second, that warhead has to have an adequate reentry shield to protect it as it reenters the atmosphere. May not be too difficult to overcome as current reentry warhead show that the conventional bombs have protection. Finally, having a dependable rocket that doesn’t fail in route and a way to overcome Israeli anti-ballastic missile defenses.
Of course there are other, more unconventional methods or targets Iran can use. Key issue is once the genie is out of the bottle, it will become far harder to put it back in, even with massive bombing of Iran’s facilities.
Speculation on the state of Iran’s nuclear program continues to be a driving factor in US and Israeli planning. The fact that Iran can make the jump in short order is very concerning.
Israel can't wait forever on this...
Perhaps our Good Old Boys will come down on them.
Peaceful Good Friday to everyone. I do not intend to post this Sunday - Resurrection Sunday for good reasons. Jesus Christ is risen, He is risen indeed.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
May Day - May 1st
Weekend is fast approaching. No significant and potentially violent protests/rallies on the agenda. As always, in liberal strongholds, keep situationally alert.
***
(FO) During a mass call last night, Indivisible and “Hands Off!” protest organizers called for volunteers to host 150+ May Day protest and direct action events across the country on Thursday, 01 May, to resist the Trump administration’s deportation efforts, although some May Day action may spill over into the weekend. One organizer specifically called on volunteers to physically block deportation flights and take other high-risk acts of civil disobedience.
Organizers are trying to advance their resistance movement from sustained but toothless protests to direct action campaigns, which represents the move from Symbolic Resistance to Selective Resistance. The aim is to normalize direct action, where activists and militants get directly involved in stopping certain political policies, such as deportation, as opposed to just protesting against them. This call is almost certainly an attempt to ‘test the waters’ so that organizers can gauge public support for these more disruptive types of resistance such occupations and physical acts of resistance. These organizers are unlikely to progress unless they find public support for their actions.
OBSERVATION - The folks at Forward Observer note the increased frenzy over the deportation of Garcia and others generated by the MSM as a potential ignitor for more definitive acts of violence. This is the first step in developing motivation for violent actions.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Apr 14, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
- Concern for a potential Islamic terror strike on US hospital(s) by the end of the month, first part of April. UPDATE, maintaining this part of the warning until after Holy Week is ended
Good Friday - Resurrection Sunday are upon us, the holiest days in Christendom and likely target period for islamic terror.
FREMONT COUNTY, Colo. (KKTV) - The U.S. Attorney’s office said two Mexican nationals were charged on Wednesday after around 180,000 rounds of ammunition were found in their vehicle.
On March 26, Fremont County deputies conducted a traffic stop of a vehicle in Canon City, according to officials.
Officials said deputies searched the vehicle, finding around 150 boxes of .308 ammunition and about 30 boxes of 7.62 ammunition. They said each box was labeled as containing 1,000 rounds.
41-year-old Caesar Ramon Martinez Solis and 24-year-old Humberto Ivan Amador Gavira of Mexico were both charged with unlawful possession of ammunition by an alien admitted under a nonimmigrant visa, officials said.
OBSERVATION - Parking this here for now. Most likely intended for mexican gang(s), indicating an expansion of terroristic criminal activity in the country.
Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025
Rough week on the Dow.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Following the arrival Tuesday of 2 B-1B “Lancer” Strategic Heavy Bombers with the U.S. Air Force’s 9th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron, at Misawa Air Base in Northern Japan; an additional 2 B-1Bs arrived at Misawa earlier tonight after crossing the Pacific, as part of the ongoing “Bomber Task Force” deployment to Japan with Global Strike Command (AFGSC).
OBSERVATION - First time in a long time ten strategic bombers have been forward deployed - 6 B2s and now 4 B1s. This places the B1s a bit closer to Iran and could speed response time. Their placement also serves as a warning to China not to get too froggy either.
***
Osint sources report that 3 additional American cargo planes landed at the Nevatim Air Force base in the past 24 hours. This comes after it was reported that in the two days preceding this one, 7 planes landed at Nevatim.
In total, 10 heavy American transport planes landed at the base in three days.
It is estimated that the planes are carrying an air train of munitions and heavy bombs for the Israeli Air Force, among other things as part of the preparations underway for an attack on Iran, as revealed yesterday in the New York Times - preparations that are continuing, even as negotiations between Iran and the US continue.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and White House Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff are meeting now with French President Emmanuel Macron and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot in Paris at the Elysee presidential palace. Macron is slated to make the case for more Euro-American alignment on the approach to the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War.
***
Rubio signals possible U.S. withdrawal from Ukraine ceasefire talks:
“If our efforts to end the war in Ukraine fail within the next few days, we will inform President Trump that negotiations are no longer a viable option.”
“If both sides are serious about peace, we’re ready to help, otherwise, we’ll move on.”
https://x.com/osint613/status/1913149451675279716?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Illegal Immigration –
The Trump administration had petitioned the Supreme Court for stays in three different challenges on Donald Trump’s executive order on birthright citizenship. The easiest action to take would have been to ignore the requests and let the cases play out, likely well into the next Supreme Court term.
Instead, the court decided to consolidate the cases and grant cert on the merits
OBSERVATION - A lot of looking at tea leaves on this one.
China -
The U.S. announced new port fees on Chinese-built and operated vessels Thursday, aiming to strengthen its own shipbuilding industry and reduce China’s control over the sector.
Japan –
Arrival of 4 B1s to Misawa Air Base in Northern Japan
Russia -
Ceasefire in Ukraine “at this stage” is unrealistic, says Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN Nebenzya
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 70.
RUMINT –
Some claims that the Russia Spring offensive has started.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched a combined missile and drone attack.
Shot down:
0/1 Iskander-M ballistic missile
3/5 Iskander-K cruise missiles
23/37 Shahed drones
Another 10 Shahed drones were lost in location and did not reach their intended target.
Russia targeted Kharkiv and Dnipro, hitting civilian areas. In Kharkiv alone, 1 person was killed and 60 wounded, including 2 children. Ballistic missile strikes in Kharkiv with 3 Iskander missiles with cluster warheads destroyed dozens of residential buildings.
Russian losses per 18/04/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff.
+1530 men
+8 tanks
+40 AFVs
+88 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation over Valyntynivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Kursk -
In Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 21 Russian army assaults, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports
Summary —
Peace talks are just about at the stage where one needs to stick a fork in them. putin is bound and determined to obtain his Ukraine goals via military means and is daring the rest of the world to stop him.
Analysis suggests that he may only have about another years worth of military assets available with which to wage war and national economy is poised to crash hard from sanctions and war effort diversions. Now similar projections have been going on for a while now, and Russia still manages to keep ticking, so it is not a given, but is a likely inflection point.
Increasing commentary that Russia has initiated its Spring/Summer offensive. This has been highlighted by the recent battalion level mechanized attack in the Zaporizhzhia sector noted yesterday. Previously in the week, a mechanized company assault was turned back. Zaporizhzhia is one of the sectors Ukraine intelligence has been claiming Russian efforts were going to be shifted to. Nether mechanized attack of late had any recognizable tactical objective and both suffered heavy losses. If the offensive has kicked off, we should begin to see what the new objectives may be and what strength Russia has been able to scrape together for such forces.
Ukraine air defenses continue to struggle against the new tactics being used by Russians. It is becoming clear that Russia is also reverting to a terror campaign with these strikes - hitting apartments, schools and other civilian targets.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- More on leaked Israeli plans for an attack on Iran
- Hamas rejects latest hostage / ceasefire proposal.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli minister Ron Dermer and Mossad director Barnea traveled to Paris for a meeting with White House Envoy Steve Witkoff on Friday ahead of the nuclear talks with Iran in Rome tomorrow.
***
Hamxs has rejected Israel’s proposal to release 10 hostages in exchange for a 45-day ceasefire.
Their statement: “We will not accept partial deals that serve Netanyahu’s political agenda.”
***
Political intrigue has gotten clearer over the reported pause in action towards a joint Israeli / US attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons program. A component of the plan was leaked by Israel sources involved a commando raid on the main enrichment facility to ensure destruction of Iran’s capabilities to enrich uranium.
Trump in a statement said he wanted to move a little slower on the operation and that it was still on the table.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
The Israel Air Force (IAF) struck some 40 terror targets throughout the Gaza Strip in the past day, the military said on Friday.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Southern Lebanon: Israeli attack targeted a Hezbollah car on Ghazieh highway near Maghdosha entrance. Likely a Hezbollah leader.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Quneitra: The Israeli army carried out patrols in the Quneitra countryside, where a convoy penetrated the village of Kodna in the southern countryside, then continued to the village of Brega and conducted a search campaign in the youth housing buildings before withdrawing to the Kodna forest road. It also penetrated the road between the villages of Hader and Sahita, adjacent to the dispersal line.
***
Russian President Vladimir Putin has continued to indicate that he seeks to develop stronger diplomatic and political relations with the Syrian transitional government. Putin discussed Russian interests in Syria with Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa al Thani in Moscow on April 17. CTP-ISW previously assessed that Russia might try to use economic incentives to secure basing rights in Syria.
Syrian media reported that Russian forces remain present at three military bases in Syria: Hmeimim airbase in Latakia, the naval base at Tartus, and Russia’s former helicopter base in Qamishli, Hasakah Province.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The US military announces: We have destroyed the Houthi fuel port in Ras Issa. Ras Isa fuel port is the main fuel port of the Iran-backed Houthi terrorists in Yemen
***
A ballistic missile launched at Israel by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen was successfully intercepted by air defenses, the military says. There are no immediate reports of injuries or damage in the attack.
***
Hamas: We strongly condemn the World Food Programme’s decision to suspend food shipments to areas targeted by airstrikes in Yemen, which increases the suffering of the Yemeni people.
***
US State Department:
We can confirm that the Chinese satellite technology company Chang Guang is directly supporting the Houthis
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Iranian Foreign Ministry: We condemn the US airstrikes on Ras Isa Port in Hodeidah, Yemen, which have claimed the lives of dozens of Yemenis. These US attacks on Yemen are a war crime and a clear violation of the UN Charter and international law, and come within the framework of comprehensive US support for genocide.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Gaza likely to see heavier action by Israel in the light of the rejection by Hamas of its hostage / cease fire proposal.
Lebanon continues to see Israeli drone strikes hitting vehicles believed to be carrying Hezbollah leaders and elements.
Syria remains relatively calm for the moment.
Houthis suffered a huge economic loss in the Ras Isa Port facilities. Oil and other features taken completely out. This sucks a huge amount of the income the Houthis rely upon for their war efforts as well as increased pressure from civilians against them. I think the air strike may also have a secondary purpose of warning Iran of what can happen to their Kharg Island facility if they don’t negotiate a nuclear deal in good faith.
Iran may have seen the count down watch paused for now. However, the thumb is poised to resume should the negotiations route fail.
Iran –
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window
Araqchi: I will head to Rome on Saturday to begin the second round of non-binding negotiations with the United States.
***
Today Sec Rubio said any nuclear deal with Iran has to be something “that actually prevents Iran from having a nuclear weapon now...but in the future as well, not just for 10 years with some sort of sunset provision or the like.” President Trump said something similar yesterday complaining about the JCPOA’s short duration.
Separately Rubio says E3 have a decision to make on invoking the snapback sanctions mechanism. He says we should all anticipate based on the public comments yesterday that they are about to get a report from the IAEA that says not just is Iran out of compliance [with the JCPOA] but Iran is dangerously close to a weapon, closer than it has ever been. If Iran is out of compliance, they have to reimpose sanctions [using snapback].”
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Mixed signals from DC only encourage Iran, not deter it. Tomorrow’s second round of ‘discussions’ between the US and Iran could be pivotal. I think Trump wants to see just how serious Iran is about negotiating a treaty in order to save its hide. If there is no movement, Trump will have to fish or cut bait. He’s talked himself into a corner regarding the military option. Witkoff’s stumble last week weakened Trump’s position as the top dog - with Iran smelling weakness in his administration.
One good thing that may help the US is the potential for “snap back” actions by France, Germany and Great Britain for Iranian violations of previous nuclear agreements. Such resumption of severe sanctions would severely hurt Iran economically and could cause civil unrest as the civilians, the one hurt by such actions, strike out against the Mullahs and their inner circles who are managing to do quite well for themselves.
With all that, it is evident that preparations for an attack are moving forward. C17s delivering critical cargo to Israel, moving B1s closer to the middle east, etc. This cannot be ignored or prolonged.
Syria -
Observers note that about half of the US forces stationed in Syria have pulled back into Kurdish Iraq.
Death by a thousand cuts...
Thanks Godzilla.
That's a LOT of ammo. Thank God for LE and their vigilance.
Now watch some leftists judge demand they return it all because it was an *illegal* traffic stop or search.
I wouldn’t put much into it. It is a transliteration from Hebrew
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