Threat Matrix 2025

Rumors that Leprechauns are actually fired Santa’s elves with drinking problems . . . .

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

Wide array of protests over the weekend, many focusing on growing attacks on Tesla and DOGE. More vandalism.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025

Swatting of conservatives continue, but there are some tactic changes with the deeper involvement of the FBI and law enforcement. Now leftists are having pizza delivered to these influencer’s homes. A simple but terroristic message that says we know where you live and can act against you at any time.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The Biden Autopen scandal is growing by the day.

A second Biden Autopen has been discovered by the Oversight Project.

The Oversight Project discovered there was a second frequently used autopen signature for Joe Biden’s pardons and commutations.

Autopen A and Autopen B have slight differences in the signatures.

Analysis by the Oversight Project reveals out of 51 clemency warrants issued by Biden: 16 were signed with Autopen A, 16 were signed with Autopen B and 19 appear to be wet signatures.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/03/second-biden-autopen-discovered-new-analysis-second-frequently/

OBSERVATION - The critical focus of the use of the autopens is whether or not biden approved of the use or if he even had the mental facilities to know they were being used.

THE PLOT THICKENS.
President Trump declared on Truth Social that the pardons signed by “Crooked Joe Biden” are void.

“The “Pardons” that Sleepy Joe Biden gave to the Unselect Committee of Political Thugs, and many others, are hereby declared VOID, VACANT, AND OF NO FURTHER FORCE OR EFFECT, because of the fact that they were done by Autopen. In other words, Joe Biden did not sign them but, more importantly, he did not know anything about them! The necessary Pardoning Documents were not explained to, or approved by, Biden. He knew nothing about them, and the people that did may have committed a crime. Therefore, those on the Unselect Committee, who destroyed and deleted ALL evidence obtained during their two year Witch Hunt of me, and many other innocent people, should fully understand that they are subject to investigation at the highest level. The fact is, they were probably responsible for the Documents that were signed on their behalf without the knowledge or consent of the Worst President in the History of our Country, Crooked Joe Biden!”

https://thelibertydaily.com/donald-trump-voids-pardons-signed-president-autopen/

OBSERVATION - The lid of this can of worms is being opened. This basically set in motion efforts by this administration to go after key individuals ‘preemptively ‘ pardoned by biden at the end of his term.

Critical element is biden’s demential riddled mental facilities and his ‘controllers’ taking advantage and signing these pardons in particular. Trump stated it pretty clear -

“Joe Biden did not sign them but, more importantly, he did not know anything about them!”

Robert Hur declaring Biden unfit mentally to stand trial may be the huge linchpin in negating these pardons.

Issue also spreads to other auto pen signature as well.

Remember, key pardons under question include -
- His family members
- Dr. Fauci
- General Mark Milley
- J6 Committee

Break out the popcorn, this could get interesting over the next few months.

***
Americans’ favorable view of the Democratic Party has fallen to 29%, the lowest ever recorded in CNN’s polling dating back more than 30 years.

NBC News poll: Just 7 percent of Americans have a very favorable opinion of the Democratic Party... the lowest number ever recorded

NBC News poll: 44% say the country is headed in the right direction under Trump—up from 27% in November. That’s the highest number since 2012. It hasn’t hit 44%+ since 2004.

OBSERVATION - These are traditional leftist leaning polling sources. These numbers, reflecting the most recent weeks, mean the democrats are in deep kimchi with their policies and shrieking about Trump.

Illegal Immigration –

Yesterday, Chief U.S. District Judge James Boasberg issued a temporary restraining order preventing the deportation of any Venezuelans—and he also demanded that the plane turn around and return the gangsters to the U.S.

The Trump administration ignored the order, however, and the gangbangers were unloaded Sunday in El Salvador, where President Nayib Bukele has agreed to incarcerate them for a fee.

White House adviser Stephen Miller, reportedly said the order did not apply because the flight was already over international waters.

El Salvador President Nayib Bukele response to Judge James Boasberg who ruled that deportation flights to El Salvador must return back to the US.

“Too late.”

The illegals were incarcerated in El Salvador’s infamous maximum security prison housing MS13 gangsters.

OBSERVATION - Strongest push back to judicial activism to date. Continued unconstitutional orders by judges like this is going to force the USSC to react.
On a whole other level, the democrat efforts to keep clearly dangerous and violent gang bangers in the US is going to further blow up in their faces - see poll numbers above in Political.

Russia -

Russia will not allow rotation of IAEA personnel at the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant via Ukraine, - envoy in Vienna

Kremlin’s spokesperson confirmed Trump-Putin phone call scheduled for Tuesday, 18th March

Economic Impact –

March 17, 2025: Russia, long a major exporter of grains and other food crops, has seen its food exports disrupted by the Ukraine War and the resulting economic sanctions. Russian food exports are not subject to sanctions. For many countries that require imported food, Russian grains are a major part of the supply chain. In 2024 Russian exported 72 million tons, but 2025 exports are expected to be 42 million tons. Normally the grain exports bring in 15 to 16 billion dollars a year. Over the past year, bad weather and government refusal to allow imported seeds caused grain harvests to fall by about a third. A related problem was the failure to maintain enough grain storage facilities. The government paid for some of this, but the money has been diverted to war related activities. This resulted in nearly 10 million tons of grain rotting. Then there is the labor shortage, caused by the military taking so many men, including farm workers. Many men simply left Russia to avoid the increasing number of aggressive army recruiters.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htproc/articles/2025031701550.aspx#gsc.tab=0

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Fair conditions with temperatures in the 30s - 50s range.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Another Shahed drone attack. Out of 174 Shahed drones launched, 90 were shot down and another 70 were lost in location, presumably due to electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 17/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1210 men
+19 tanks
+11 AFVs
+37 artillery systems
+1 MLRS

Ukraine drones attacked an airfield in Yeysk, Russia

Kursk -

Ukraine maintain’s hold on a narrow border zone in Russia.

Summary —

Ukraine continues to try to stabilize the situation in Kursk and prepares for a Russia to attempt to continue its attack toward Sumy.

Russia losses indicate moderately heavy levels of fighting over the past day.

Eyes on tomorrow’s Trump/putin phone call.

Levels of Shaheds fired at Ukraine continues to be impressive. Last reports I saw had Russia capable of production 30 / day, they must have been able to increase that by now, so the difference must be made up by Iranian imports.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Limited strikes in Gaza and S Lebanon.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Israeli military says it carried out a drone strike against three terror operatives who were spotted trying to plant a bomb near troops in the central Gaza Strip

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

IDF: Over the past few hours, the IDF struck a Radwan Force command and control center, and structures used by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
The presence of these terrorist infrastructure sites constitutes a blatant violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon. The IDF will not allow this kind of activity and will act against it.
The IDF will strike armed terrorists in southern Lebanon, and will operate in order to remove any threat to the State of Israel.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Following initial US airstrikes, Houthi’s claimed to have launched a massive attack on the US carrier in the Red Sea.

In a post on X, Houthi spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Sare’e claimed the Iran-backed group used 18 ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as one drone, to attack the Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group in the northern Red Sea. U.S. Central Command did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the attacks from USNI News.

CENTOM did confirm the attempt, but it was far less spectacular than the Houths claimed. U.S. warplanes shot down 11 Houthi drones on Sunday, none of which came close to the Truman, a U.S. official told Reuters. U.S. forces also tracked a missile that splashed down off the coast of Yemen, the official said.

US targeted sites in the Al Jaouf and Hudaydah areas early on Monday, according to the rebel group, while the US Central Command said its forces had continued operations. The Monday operation were less extensive than Sunday’s.

Growing evidence that Abd Rabbu Jarfan, who was responsible for the personal and intelligence security of Houthi leader Abd al-Malek al-Houthi, and the organization’s internal security mechanisms, was taken out in yesterday’s attacks.

Houthi leader Abdul Malik Al-Houthi says that in response to U.S. aggression, American-owned merchant ships will be banned from the Red Sea.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel getting a BIG help against Hezbollah with the fighting on the N Lebanese border with HTS / Syrian elements. Hezbollah’s Lebanon presence is much more defendable than the elements that were in Syria when HTS overthrew the Assad govt. Sunni/Shia fight taking precedence over operations against Israel. However, if the fighting intensifies and expands, the Lebanese Army may get more involved and things spiral out of control.

The fighting points out a key factor - the Lebanese and Syrian central govts do not have control over the actions of Hezbollah and HTS militias.

Fighting on the Lebanon/Syria border and US striking the Houthi’s has dropped the visibility of the hostage negotiations / cease fire with Hamas off the radar. Zero movement noted. This is bad news for Hamas, with relief from Hezbollah, and Iran (due to US attacks on Houthi’s and warnings) Israel has been able to focus far more on the resumption of Gaza ops.

The US/Houthi fight continues with Houthi propaganda falling far short of reality and the second night’s worth of attacks by the US more limited than the first. The administration warned that duration and intensity of US strikes will depend on good behavior by the Houthis. Well concentrating attacks on the US aircraft carrier should indicate bad behavior on their part. Houthi’s are watching closely US words versus actions. Houthi actions warrant another major air strike(s) - preferably one including US strategic bombers. Understand this takes a little planning, so something in the next day or so is expected on my part.

Iran got the message in the airstrikes (see below).

Iran –

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a stark warning on Sunday, vowing a “decisive” retaliation against any attack, following US President Donald Trump’s authorization of strikes targeting Yemen’s Houthi rebels, AFP reported. Trump also cautioned Tehran to cease its support for the group.

In a televised address, IRGC commander Hossein Salami dismissed Trump’s threats, stating, “Iran will not wage war, but if anyone threatens, it will give appropriate, decisive and conclusive responses.”

Salami also defended the Houthis, describing them as “the representative of the Yemenis” and emphasizing that the group makes its “strategic and operational decisions” independently.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/405470

OBSERVATION - Iran may be trying to toss the Houthi’s under the bus by saying they make their own decisions. An effort to decouple Iranian support for all these years and deflect a US operations against them.

***
National Security Advisor Michael Waltz: Iran must completely dismantle its nuclear program.

Lebanon -

Serious fighting has broken out on the Lebanese/Syria border south of Homs. Syria claims Hezbollah militants crossed the border in the Homs countryside, killing three Syrian soldiers. Hezbollah claims same three Syrian soldiers crossed into Lebanon and attempted to steal sheep, and were killed by the owner.

Clashes between Hezbollah and the Syrian Army continued to escalate on the border overnight, as major reinforcement including tanks, self-propelled artillery, rocket launchers, and drones have been deployed by the Syrian Army to the Homs Governorate.

Heavy artillery and rocket fire reported over night.

OBSERVATION - Will the Syrian and Lebanese govts be able to cauterize this latest outbreak of fighting? This is good news for Israel as Hezbollah has to expend resources it had originally designated for Israeli attacks. Also good for Syria to expend resources on Hezbollah rather than Israel forces in S Syria.

Syria -

See fighting with Lebanon Hezbollah above.

Misc of Note –

Tornado season has hit with vengeance, killing many across the southeast US. As with all preparations - knowledge of your threat environment is essential to your preparedness actions.

Make sure your tornado shelters are ready with fresh water and food, battery radio and extra clothing. And if you are not at home, seek knowledge of where alternative shelters are. Keep hyper alert to tornado warnings and alerts.

Globalism / Great Reset –

WEF is reportedly demanding that there be a global ban on home grown food to meet Net Zero.

RELATED - The decision by the USDA to ask people to register their vegetable gardens stems from a deep appreciation for the positive impact that these gardens can have on both individuals and communities. As more and more people are turning to gardening as a way to reconnect with nature, improve access to nutritious food, and reduce their environmental footprint, it is crucial for organizations like the USDA to be aware of these activities in order to provide appropriate guidance and resources.

https://www.vegetablegardeningnews.com/usda-now-asking-people-to-register-their-vegetable-gardens/

OBSERVATION - He who controls the food can control the population. This USDA program should be looked at by DOGE.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

Noticeable up tick in protests as the weather warms up. Potential for violence is still moderate and mostly local.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Mar 18, 2025
Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.

A new terror threat has started to bounce the interwebs regarding a scenario where Islamic terror elements (ISIS or Iranian/Hezbollah) hit a hospital in a medium sized US city. Here’s some of the points -

- The next major terror attack in the US will be on a hospital in a mid-tier city.
- It will be a VBIED, followed by an armed assault with hostages taken.
- This will happen in the next 3 weeks.
- ISIS will take responsibility.

The reliability of the reported source is uncertain, so much of this could be relegated to RUMINT.

However, it does paint a very realistic scenario and one that would follow the MO of these islamic groups. Some discussion looked to link such a threat to recent Swatting of Loma Linda Children’s Hospital and Huntington Hospital this week,

What is the link? Terrorists could be evaluating the response times of police units to an attack.

Hospitals are very SOFT targets with great potential for terrorist attacks. Islamic elements have done similar to other soft targets around the world (theater, hotels, etc)

Iran has threatened to strike US interests - most commonly considered to be US bases in the Persia Gulf region. What has not been noted is the activation of terror cells that entered in via the biden open border policy. Law enforcement and intelligence know terrorists made it here, but trying to find these cells with all the other immigration and other noise is going to be hard.

Again, no hard confirmable intel on this threat, only what appears to be speculation. However, that speculation has outlined a very real scenario that could take place. And the Jihadis have people in country that could pull it off.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

Gasoline prices continue to drop.

Gold and Silver reach record highs, with gold solidly above $3000/oz

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

RUMINT / Confusion - are there additional carriers headed to the middle east?

Several claims made that the US Department of Defense: 3 American aircraft carriers are making their way to the Middle East. —but there’s zero confirmation and nothing from the DoD.

What has been observed is interesting -

- Amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima (LHD-7) departed Norfolk, Va., on Wednesday, according to ship spotters.
- Aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) departed Norfolk, Va., on Friday, according to ship spotters.
- Aircraft carrier USS George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) departed Norfolk, Va., on Sunday, according to ship spotters.

https://news.usni.org/2025/03/17/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-march-17-2025

American carriers frequently conduct routine operations off the coast of the U.S. - just because one leaves port does not mean it’s on deployment. But in this case, three have departed within a matter of a few days of each other.

I have to assume that Trump and his leadership in the military are smart enough to know that if they are anticipating the expansion they need to get more combat assets into the region. We have only one CSG on station and its focus are the Houthis. The Vinson CSG is operating off the coast of S Korea and could be redirected to CENTOM. The Washington CSG is at port in Japan. No evidence that these carriers are being moved - China threat concerns in the region.

Reality is that OPSEC would favor these Norfolk based assets to deploy to sea for “routine ops” off the coast while in reality steaming with their support ships to the ME. Did find one news story that suggests ‘routine exercise’ off the coast for one of these vessels.

However, if rumors are true,this would form up 3 CSGs and an amphibious flattop for actions. This would make sense. They deployed in the same near time frame. They would be expected to reach the Mediterranean in a week and the Arabian Sea / Gulf of Oman in about another week beyond that.

As I’ve noted elsewhere, if additional carrier task forces head to the middle east region, Iran better watch out. We could be seeing an attempt to get those assets there with minimal announcements.

POLITICAL FRONT –

President Trump on Monday announced he stripped US Secret Service protection from Joe Biden’s daughter, Ashley Biden and son, Hunter Biden.
Trump said “effective immediately” Hunter Biden will no longer receive Secret Service protection.

***
Activist judges continue to play their games.

TRUMP Watch –

Phone call with putin later today.s

Russia -

Putin and Trump are expected to speak at about 4 PM Moscow time .

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Fair conditions with temperatures in the 30s - 50s range.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Another day, another 137 Shahed drones launched at Ukraine with 63 shot down. Another 64 were lost in location, presumably as a result of electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 18/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1560 men
+8 tanks
+20 AFVs
+42 artillery pieces
+1 MLRS
+3 AD systems

Russian ballistic missile strikes were reported in Sumy region

Russian drones struck an infrastructure facility in Dnipro district, Dnipropetrovsk region, causing a massive fire, – Regional Administration. No casualties reported so far.

Entrance to Krasnaya Yaruga town of Belgorod region has been closed

Summary —

Moderately heavy fighting judging from the Russia casualty report.
Interesting reports of Ukraine attacks into Russia in the Belgorod region. Could be an economy of force operation targeting understrength Russia border police / national guard units. I don’t believe this will develop into another Kursk sized incursion though.

World waiting to see what develops from the Trump/putin talks later today. Given putin’s hard line, I doubt a final solution will be obtained.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Israel resumes the war with Hamas, senior Hamas leaders killed.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

The Israeli army says the name of its overnight surprise offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip is “Strength and Sword

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

The IDF has resumed military operations in the Gaza Strip, after ongoing ceasefire talks failed to produce results

Prime Minister’s Office Statement:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz have instructed the IDF to act forcefully against the terrorist organization Hamxs in the Gaza Strip.

This decision comes after Hamxs repeatedly refused to release our hostages and rejected all proposals presented by U.S. President’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, and other mediators.

***

Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz’s first statement following tonight’s airstrikes across the Gaza Strip, “Tonight we returned to fighting in Gaza due to Hamas’ refusal to release the kidnapped and threats to harm IDF soldiers and Israeli communities.

If Hamas does not release all the kidnapped, the gates of hell will open in Gaza and Hamas’ murderers and rapists will meet the IDF with forces they have never known before.

We will not stop fighting until all the kidnapped return home and all the war’s goals are achieved.”

***

Air, artillery and naval strikes hit all regions of Gaza. The initial wave of airstrikes appear to have been intended to take out Hamas leadership, and it had successes.

Key Hamas figures eliminated in overnight strikes – according to Palestinian reports:

•Mahmoud Abu Watfa – Director General, Hamxs Ministry of Interior

•Abu Obeidah Muhammad al-Jamasi – Member, Hamxs Political Bureau

•Issam a-Daalis – Member, Hamxs Political Bureau

•Bahjat Abu Sultan – Head of Hamxs’ Internal Security Apparatus

•Abu Amr al-Hatta – Director General, Hamxs Ministry of Justice

***
IDF homefront command has started to place a series of restrictions on border-area towns.

***
Gazans warned to relocate to designated areas on the western side of the territory and leave areas adjacent to Israel.

***
IDF reports that ground forces are ready to enter Gaza at any time.

***
Hamas says in a statement it holds Netanyahu and his government fully responsible for overturning the ceasefire and for the repercussions of the renewed attacks on Gaza, “exposing the hostages in Gaza to an unknown fate.”

Hamas also calling for ceasefire mediators help in stopping the Israeli attacks.
NOTE - Always the victim.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The IDF confirms carrying out a wave of airstrikes in Lebanon a short while ago, saying it targeted Hezbollah military sites.
The sites were targeted after the IDF says it identified Hezbollah operatives and weapons at them.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

IAF strikes near Daraa, Syria overnight reportedly targeted three weapons storage sites that belonged to the Assad regime. Report of many casualties in an Israeli attack on HTS headquarters in Daraa, southern Syria.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The U.S. 5th Fleet has now entered a phase of “sustained combat operations” within CENTCOM’s area of responsibility. Air strikes against Houthi targets have been almost continuous since initiation of attacks three days ago.

Report in Al-Arabiya: The US military destroyed a Houthi ballistic missile production plant in the Al-Salif district near the port of Hodeidah.
Dozens casualties reported.

Air strikes hit a government building in Al-Juf province, northern Yemen.
Also, the presidential palace in Sana’a, Yemen, was attacked by the US.

Reports in Yemen that several of Iran’s IRGC members were eliminated in overnight US attacks on Houthi targets

Houthis again said they sank the US fleet in the Red Sea.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Egyptian Foreign Ministry: Israeli raids on the Gaza Strip are a flagrant violation of the ceasefire agreement and a dangerous escalation.

Irish Foreign Minister: Reports of Israeli airstrikes on Gaza raise grave concern

President Trump gave Israel a green light to restart attacks on Hamas after the U.S.-designated terrorist group failed to give up hostages - WSJ

White House: Israeli attacks are coordinated with us, all hell is about to break loose…

White House National Security Council Spokesperson: “Hamas could have released hostages and extended the ceasefire, but instead it chose defiance and war, and so it received it.”

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Yesterday’s resumption by Israel of the war against Hamas may have been precursor by a cryptic news announcement -

“Urgent security consultations took place at the top security and political levels in Israel due to “a recent unusual event that may indicate a Hamas attempt to prepare for a ground invasion into Israel.”

Military censorship allowed the publication that Israel had identified an unusual event in the Gaza Strip that indicates Hamas is organizing for another attack on Israel.”

Report suggested that Hamas was preparing to try another surprise attack. Of course later in the day Israel resumed hammering Hamas sites from the air.

Surprise is essential to successful military operations, and Israel achieved that. I wasn’t expecting anything until after Ramadan. Brings into question the meeting on an impending Hamas attack. Was that cover for the airstrikes or an actual trigger of an expected attack?

Regardless, Israel’s attack showed a whole different character from the start of the war. Gone in this opening phase are the ‘knock’ warnings to get people out of buildings before an air strike. Whole war is being experienced across the whole of Gaza.

Israeli success in hitting Hamas leadership is likely due to Mossad doing its homework reviewing videos by the Gazans/Hamas of the hostage release ‘ceremonies’. Hamas was very cocky and gave away a lot of intel regarding leadership locations and more.

It is unlikely IMHO that Israel will stop the current action and most likely will increase attacks and move a much larger ground force into Gaza - especially areas that biden declared to be no-go for Israel in the previous go round. Trump has given them the green light to do what they need to do to eliminate Hamas.

***
Back to the Houthis. Air strikes have been ongoing for the past three days and expected to go longer. Here, Trump is letting his war fighters fight the war, and not limited to safe, symbolic targets dictated by the biden regime.

Houthi leaders still claim to be hitting the CSG in the Red Sea, but those reports are for internal consumption. They haven’t even come close to laying a glove on the fleet.

The disappearance of the Iranian “Zagros” spy ship is likely do to it being sent to the sea floor. Reports were that it was supplying targeting information to the Houthis for anti-ship missile firing. It would also provide critical radar data on US airstrikes - as the F18s are not stealth fighters and could be detected. It became ‘lost’ during the first wave of attacks over the weekend. Hopefully our submarine crew got some good live fire training that day.

See Iran below for more implications.

Iran –

In a post earlier on Truth Social, U.S. President Donald J. Trump issued a stark warning towards Iran, with him stating, “Any further attack or retaliation by the “Houthis” will be met with great force, and there is no guarantee that that force will stop there.” Adding that, “Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN, and IRAN will be held responsible, and suffer the consequences, and those consequences will be dire!”

***
Top conservative Iranian figures, including Saeed Jalili and Qalibaf, are urging Khamenei to declare a state of emergency in response to Trump’s threats against Iran.

***
The U.S. Navy’s MQ-4C Triton has been conducting surveillance over Bushehr all day.
Bushehr hosts Iran’s Bashar nuclear plant

Reports that it withdrew from the area after being challenged by Iranian F14 fighters.

***
Unconfirmed reports that Iran’s “Zagros” spy ship—the most advanced vessel in Iran’s navy—was targeted and sunk in the Red Sea

The Saudi Al-Hadath reports that Iran’s “Zagros” reconnaissance (SIGINT) ship, the most advanced spying vessel in Iran’s navy was targeted and sunk in the Red Sea by the United States.

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
Actions in the region have literally exploded, with first the start of a significant air campaign against the Houthi and the restart of Israel’s attacks against Hamas. Trump has laid down the law - any further Houthi attack against US forces will be considered a direct attack by Iran itself. And he is very correct, Iran has been supporting the Houthi efforts with arms and even advisors.

What I am watching for is movement of US combat assets to the region. Over the weekend, there were reports of a lot of air tanker refueling operations over the US - I didn’t report it because it could be a US based exercise. However, such an exercise can be a precursor to movement of large numbers of combat aircraft into the region.

Another key indicator would be the deployment of more aircraft carrier CSGs to the region. As I noted in Military / Strategic Activity above, two carrier an an amphib flat top were observed last week and over the weekend departing Norfolk. OPSEC would dictate the minimal fanfare would be give if these elements are enroute to the region.

An attack on Iran would necessitate additional resources to the region. I am confident Trumps planners are aware of this and started the wheels in motion long before it becomes a crisis.

Finally, an operation against Iran will likely be a joint one including Israel. Israel clobbered Iran pretty hard in the last strike. Now imagine that level of attack multiplied many times over with US aircraft (including heavy bombers), and cruise missiles. Iran is a target rich environment.

Just when will this happen? Deployment of additional assets will be a key indicator, but with the way things kicked off so far, my best guess is pretty weak - a couple of weeks to get assets in place.

Iraq -

Iraq’s foreign minister claims messages have been received suggesting Israel plans to carry out a series of strikes in Iraq.

Lebanon -

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun on border clashes with Syria: “This cannot continue, and we will not accept it. I have ordered the army to return fire at the source.”
Lebanese army headed to the Syrian border to fight Jolani’s people

It appears the Jolani’s troops have breached the Lebanon border.

Syrian Ministry of Defense began entering points controlled by the Lebanese Hezbollah militia after a missile and artillery bombardment. Soldiers of Operations Department entered Hosh Al-Sayyid Ali on the border and take full control of it after being captured by Hezbollah in 2013.

Lebanese Army:

- Heavy shelling from the Syrian side targeted Hosh Sayyed Ali area in Hermel Our units responded with appropriate weapons and are strengthening defenses to stop the attacks.

- The Lebanese Army has announced the deployment of special forces units to Northern Baalbek-Hermel Governorate, near the border between Syria and Lebanon

OBSERVATION - Inclusive of Syria below. Latest reports are that the respective govts are in the process of reigning in the fighting. Also evident is that Hezbollah lost to HTS/Syrian forces. Expect scattered fighting to eventually return to a relative calm.

Syria -

Reinforcements for the Paratroopers Regiment on the outskirts of the border town of Hawsh al-Sayyid Ali

Syrian Civil Defense: Damage to Ain al-Tanour water station in the western Homs countryside and fires erupting following Hezbollah shelling.

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