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Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed.
Twitter / X ^ | November 05, 2024 | Councilwoman Vickie Paladino (NYC)

Posted on 11/05/2024 7:52:28 AM PST by Red Badger

Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.

Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.

Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.

The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.

The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.

Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.

Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.

12:56 PM · Nov 4, 2024

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To: PallMal

“The senate races, from what I see, aren’t in our favor in two years.”

**********

Valid point. However Trump could improve the situation if his popular support is strong and his policies are working. Keeping a majority in the senate is crucial.


161 posted on 11/05/2024 9:36:11 AM PST by Starboard
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To: chiller

Another factor is that the lunatic state supreme court in North Carolina gerrymandered the state’s map “cuz racism” even though there was zero evidence of that. Voters in this state responded by electing two more Republican and turning out two Democrats on the state supreme court....which then reversed the previous state supreme court. So the maps for North Carolina have been redrawn. The result will be 3-4 House seats flipped back from Democrat to Republican.


162 posted on 11/05/2024 9:37:35 AM PST by FLT-bird
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To: Red Badger

There is no path to 270 for any Democrat this cycle and the smart ones have known it since January. The only reason Biden was replaced to to try to save the down ballot


163 posted on 11/05/2024 9:39:35 AM PST by HamiltonJay
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To: GrandJediMasterYoda

Do you really think that Quid Pro Pedo Joe “won” in 2020?


164 posted on 11/05/2024 9:45:07 AM PST by Ghost of Philip Marlowe (Prepare to survive.)
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To: God luvs America

But are you sure this benefits our side?

No. But it’s a much larger crowd than I’ve ever seen.
I wish I knew how they voted. I saw a lot of men. Young and old. Some young women but mostly middle aged. The line to the voter registration desk was pretty long too and out in the parking lot one Vermont car and 3 Massatwochits cars. I hate when I see out of state license plates but I can’t say anything on how they voted.


165 posted on 11/05/2024 9:47:26 AM PST by lucky american (Had enough yet?)
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To: HereInTheHeartland

bkmk


166 posted on 11/05/2024 9:49:24 AM PST by sauropod ("This is a time when people reveal themselves for who they are." James O'Keefe Ne supra crepidam)
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To: Red Badger

We need the House.


167 posted on 11/05/2024 9:49:53 AM PST by vivenne
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To: ProtectOurFreedom

bkmk


168 posted on 11/05/2024 9:52:22 AM PST by sauropod ("This is a time when people reveal themselves for who they are." James O'Keefe Ne supra crepidam)
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To: Red Badger

Liberal white women are a scourge on America. Willing victims of secularism.


169 posted on 11/05/2024 9:53:46 AM PST by Bullish (Socialism is a weed that blooms into communism, the tyranny that strangles liberty.)
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To: Ghost of Philip Marlowe

There was obvious election fraud, I don’t care what anyone says I am certain I saw Trump ahead by 20 points in Georgia the night of the election and then late at night every vote comes in for Biden? No no way, that was fraud. But my intuition just told me he would win, maybe it’s just the vibe I get from everything that is going on, it’s weird.

And speaking of fraud, did you hear the election machines are down in Republican areas of Pennsylvania. WHAT a surprise!

https://nypost.com/2024/11/05/us-news/widespread-voting-problems-reported-in-2-heavily-republican-pennsylvania-counties/

Trump is still gonna win, it’s too big to rig.


170 posted on 11/05/2024 9:57:58 AM PST by GrandJediMasterYoda (As long as Hillary Clinton remains free, the USA will never have equal justice under the law)
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To: PallMal

Me., yeah, maybe sc, ky and ia, don’t see any other problem areas, though retirements could change things.

The D’s have mi, ga, nh and nm.

Seems pretty even to me.


171 posted on 11/05/2024 9:59:50 AM PST by sonnysteelgrave
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To: Red Badger

Hoping the Trump org is ready for observers to be ducks on a bug when they see any stoppage, anomalies, vans at 2am, observers being put out, machine glitches, bomb threats, etc.


172 posted on 11/05/2024 10:08:02 AM PST by lurk (u)
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To: Vermont Lt
Remember 2022. The Republicans need to dismiss this good news and keep working until the polls close.

I place a great deal of the blame for 2022 on election fraud, same as it was in 2020. Virtually nothing was done about election fraud before 2022, and so why wouldn't they cheat again?

This year, their idiot candidate is so unpopular, that the people are simply not going to believe that cackling shrew could possibly win. Trying to rig it becomes a lot riskier. They don't have the cover of a large amount of real ballots to sneak in enough fake ones to make a difference.

And people have actually sought changes in laws, more scrutiny, fought court cases, and done several things to help insure a more accurate and fair election this go round.

Not as much reform as there needs to be, but likely enough so that we will get a real result instead of a fake election as we did in 2020 and 2022.

173 posted on 11/05/2024 10:10:43 AM PST by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
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To: Scott from the Left Coast

And that is exactly how the legacy media will paint it. It was DJT’s ugly, rage-fueled base that put Orange Man over the top!


174 posted on 11/05/2024 10:13:12 AM PST by cld51860 ("This business will get out of control...")
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To: apillar
What they were hoping is that Harris could manage to do good enough that perhaps Democrats take the House or hold the senate but weren’t optimistic. He said there were just too many headwinds going against them, the economy, Biden’s unpopularity, etc. and some untested candidate just wasn’t going to cut it.

I guess them being the party of evil wasn't listed as a "headwind"?

175 posted on 11/05/2024 10:18:12 AM PST by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
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To: GrandJediMasterYoda

OK. I was just making sure you didn’t think Bribem one fair-and-square.

I hope you’re right, that it’s too big to rig.

Someone asked me what I thought would happen.

I told them the DemComs will have to make a decision during the day. If it’s close enough to steal, they will. If it isn’t and the cheat would be so obvious that it would destroy their cheat machine, they won’t, and they’ll focus on destroying Trump’s second term.


176 posted on 11/05/2024 10:23:46 AM PST by Ghost of Philip Marlowe (Prepare to survive.)
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To: DiogenesLamp

Be that as it is…if there is high enough turnout, and the margin of winning is so high, it would be difficult to steal.

The down ballot stuff is critical. If we lose the house and senate, then things would go really bad…really fast.


177 posted on 11/05/2024 10:29:13 AM PST by Vermont Lt
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To: Vermont Lt

Yup.


178 posted on 11/05/2024 10:34:36 AM PST by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
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To: FLT-bird

Wowzer....I had not idea....great news


179 posted on 11/05/2024 10:34:43 AM PST by chiller (Davey Crockett said: "Be sure you're right. Then go ahead'. I'll go ahead.)
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To: Red Badger
"Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats."

That doesn't remotely sync with the first part, so it makes one wonder how tied in this consultant is with MattressBack's national campaign. It could be that the outer ring around Karamela's campaign is talking to her, but the fact this consultant didn't go ahead and rot on downballot and said 'flipping the house' sounds like someone talking out their azz. Trump wins we gain seats in the House and take back the Senate. Period.

180 posted on 11/05/2024 10:36:51 AM PST by StAnDeliver (TrumpII)
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