Latest MSM polls turning on Kamala

Freedom Window ^ | 10/25/2024 | Political Ref

[TheRef]

>>>SEE PAST PROJECTIONS. THE MOST EXTENSIVE POLL AVERAGES, PERIOD.
Political Ref's Poll Average
Harris +0.2
Harris 48.3, Trump 48.1
Sample Size: 39,900 VOTERS
Theoretical Margin of Error: 0.5%
Sample Model: 2020 Exit Poll Turnout Model (Polls that did not use 2020 Exit Poll model were adapted to it, justifying a margin of error)	LATEST NATIONAL POLLS
POLL RESULT SUMMARY (SEE FULL RESULTS & EXPLANATIONS BELOW)
Poll & Average Error Over Last Two Presidential Elections	Date	Sample + ID Bias Adjustments	Harris	Trump	Margin	Pollster Avg	Ref's Avg
NYT / SIENNA	10/20-10/23	2516LV. Party ID: 31D/30I/32R. Gender ID: 48/51 M/F. Education ID: 40/60 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 65/9/11/3/3 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 13/22/33/29 18-30-45-65+. Regional ID: 22/20/35/24 N/M/S/W.	46	47		x
Political Ref's Take	Poll Bias Score -22 towards GOP, or insignificant bias, will include in my averages. The poll balances well and there are no notable areas of bias.		46	47	+1.0
CNN / SSRS	10/20-10/23	1704LV. Party ID: 32D/35I/34R. Inferred Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Inferred Eduation ID: 41/59 BA+/NoBA. Inferred Racial ID: 70/10/14/4 W/B/L/O. Inferred Age ID: 25/24/30/22 18-35-50-65+.	47	47
Political Ref's Take

[Owen]

Blacks and Independents way undersampled.

[packagingguy]

Gender ID: 48/52 M/F

Females oversampled. I don’t know how they could generate this number unless they employed a biologist.

[struggle]

If Trumps -1 in Virginia, then he’s winning, unless we’re forced to watch 2 weeks of ‘counting’ again.

[nwrep]

I hope this does not turn into another “unskew the polls” of 2012.