Posted on 09/27/2024 5:46:49 AM PDT by Red Badger
A new poll from Gallup, which is widely viewed as a liberal polling outfit, finds that Republicans are leading in party ID in the third quarter of this year. This is the first time this has happened since 1992.
That bodes very well for the Trump campaign and Republicans in general.
It represents a shift in the electorate and suggests that people are less shy about identifying as conservative.
Nick Arama writes at RedState:
Gallup Drops Stunner of a Poll for Trump That Could be the Game Changer
We’ve been seeing some big polls over the past few days that have had good news for former President Donald Trump: the NYT/Siena, Emerson, and even the Quinnipiac poll (which tends to lean left). NYT and Emerson were looking at swing states with Trump ahead. Quinnipiac looked at the national vote and had Trump up by 1 point with likely voters…
Now there’s a new Gallup poll that may just be the game if it bears out. Guy Benson at our sister site, Townhall, asked if it might be the “best poll yet.” And it’s easy to see why he might ask that question, given the history of the poll.
Here’s what it says on party ID lean.
This is the first time Republicans have led in Quarter 3 in a presidential year going back to 1992.
See the graph in the tweet below:
See other years below for comparison:
"Gallup track record is pretty scarily accurate on the national popular vote by tracking PARTY ID/LEAN... and look at what they predict for this election:
🔵 2008: D+8 (Obama+7.2)
🔵 2012: D+4 (Obama+3.9)
🔵 2016: D+3 (Clinton+2.1)
🔵 2020: D+5 (Biden+4.5)
🔴 2024: R+3 (?)
Just remember: 2016 was a Clinton+2.1 environment and Trump swept the battlegrounds.
What happens if he outright wins the popular vote?"
Those numbers may look small, but they represent a massive shift in the vote. If it holds up, it could make all the difference in November.
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Not cause for celebration IMO, especially with the latest refinements in MSM manipulation (we'll tell them they're winning and they'll skip voting).
.
What happens???
The country MAY just survive - that’s what…
Face it — Trump doesn’t have Ronald Reagan’s broad personality appeal. So Republicans need to persuade Americans to vote the party rather than the man — and have a party platform worth voting for — when they have a candidate with personality negatives like Trump’s. This will also lead to downstream gains.
Independents probably are dominant over both the parties, so this survey doesn’t mean much.
Trump is a Populist. Republican by convenience. Which is exactly the correct configuration when the population is moving Independent.
How so?
Polling companies use a formula that estimates the number of Reps, Dems, and Independents. It's not uncommon for pollsters to oversample Democrats in order to get polls to show strength of a Democrat candidate.
This Gallup poll confirms that Democrats are often being oversampled.
Anyone voting Democrat subconsciously wants to commit suicide.
Actually, they were correct with regard to the popular vote every time.
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