When did Gallup get back into the presidential polling business? I thought they stopped that some time ago.
“2024 Election Environment Favorable to GOP”
“Party affiliation, GOP issue advantages, economic pessimism among key factors”
“Nearly all Gallup measures that have shown some relationship to past presidential election outcomes or that speak to current perceptions of the two major parties favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party. Chief among these are Republican advantages in U.S. adults’ party identification and leanings, the belief that the GOP rather than the Democratic Party is better able to handle the most important problem facing the country, Americans’ dissatisfaction with the state of the nation, and negative evaluations of the economy with a Democratic administration in office.”
“Party identification and leaning
48% Republican/Lean Republican
45% Democratic/Lean Democratic”
https://news.gallup.com/poll/651092/2024-election-environment-favorable-gop.aspx
Yes, they stopped in 2016 they were so far off.........
This is a post-analysis of Gallop pool data that captures voter registration.
Quantus Insights 🚨Historical Trends: Party ID & Popular Vote 🚨 Based on regression analysis using Gallup's party ID and historical election results, an R+3 environment in 2024 the model projects a 2.5% national popular vote margin in favor of Trump. This aligns with the historical trend where party ID has been a strong predictor of national outcomes. Key Results: -R-squared: 0.972 (strong fit) -Coefficient: 0.964 (each 1-point change in party ID shifts the popular vote by 0.96 pts) If this trend holds, the Trump-Vance ticket is positioned to win the national popular vote and make significant gains in the Electoral College, potentially flipping states like Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia.