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Working From Home is Here to Stay: Nearly a Quarter of Offices in America Might be Empty by 2026
Sherwood ^ | 07/02/2024 | Millie Giles, William Coulman

Posted on 07/02/2024 9:34:39 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

Homework club

The pandemic turned the world upside down. People stockpiled toilet paper, did yoga over Zoom, baked banana bread, bought Pelotons, went crazy for online shopping, and anyone who was even thinking about buying a pool went and got one. Pretty much all of those trends have since returned to normal, but a major one has remained: working from home.

According to new data published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Time Use Survey for 2023, ~35% of all employed persons in the US spent the average working day doing at least some of their work from home — up from the previous year, which saw a slight downturn after peaking at ~38% in 2021, and 16% more than two decades ago.

Universal remote

While employees initially had to create home office setups by necessity, factors like work-life balance, reduced time spent commuting, and generally becoming accustomed to the comforts of their own desks (and/or couches) left many with a taste for the hybrid 9-5 model that still lingers today… despite mounting pressure from businesses trying to clamp down on remote working.

Indeed, the desire to WFH remains strong: research cited by The Economist indicates that the typical worker worldwide wants 2 days at home — an entire day more than the actual average — and a LinkedIn survey in January found that now only 39% of US employees want a fully in-person job.

With WFH looking increasingly established, one sector in particular is struggling to adjust to the new normal: commercial real estate. In fact, although US office vacancy rates are already at record highs, according to a report from Moody’s published yesterday, they are set to continue rising up to 24% by early 2026, driven by the expiration of leases and an influx of new office buildings onto the market.

As we noted earlier this week, the pressures on the commercial real estate sector are weighing heavily on REITs and other real estate-exposed stocks… but, while there might be short-term pain, the outlook is not entirely bleak. Moody's foresees vacancy rates eventually stabilizing as redundant offices are either demolished or repurposed into warehouses and residential properties.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Society
KEYWORDS: commercial; home; labor; office; officespace; realty; remote; wboopie; work; workingfromhome
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To: Angelino97

“Can they be supervised effectively to see that they’re not slacking off?”

I do clerical work on a computer. Management knows my productivity no matter where I’m at.


21 posted on 07/03/2024 4:46:36 AM PDT by cymbeline (we saw men break out of a concentration camp.”)
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To: TalBlack; anton
Oddly there is more traffic going to and from NYC and New Jersey from Long Island than I’ve ever seen in forty two years.

It's not odd at all. Commuters who previously took trains or buses are now commuting by car - whether privately owned or, with increasing frequency, Uber and Lyft rides.

Between the increased danger in the subways, and with fewer workers in the office, it's feasible for these commuters to take cars in.

22 posted on 07/03/2024 5:06:12 AM PDT by T.B. Yoits
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To: maddog55
My response to the work at home crowd would be “Get your MF azz back to work now or you’re fired”.

And your competitors would eat your lunch. There is no "back to the office" for employees who were never there. Our remote workers are far more talented than the locals. It's not even close.

Our productivity has increased exponentially. Processes that previously took weeks now take 2-3 days.

23 posted on 07/03/2024 5:09:00 AM PDT by T.B. Yoits
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To: SeekAndFind

A I is already replacing many of the paper-pushing make work jobs.


24 posted on 07/03/2024 5:39:53 AM PDT by fella ("As it was before Noah so shall it be again," )
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To: SeekAndFind

I’ve had the experience of working in office environments that featured aisles of cubicles on every floor until renovations opened everything up. It was kinda creepy after that... and I’ve also worked in open-floored offices where the lighting was very dim for better computer monitor-viewing (CAD), and that was kinda creepy too because there was hardly ever a sound made by anyone. I’d like to see a return to office cubicles and working in-office. It’s nice to have a kind of home away from home, just not too far from home.


25 posted on 07/03/2024 5:53:31 AM PDT by equaviator (If 60 is the new 40, then 35 must be the new 15.)
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To: cymbeline; SeekAndFind

“Management knows my productivity no matter where I’m at.”

As a line manager, if an employee’s physical presence in the office was my only gauge of their “productivity,” I would seriously need to question why the person was employed.

You’ve hit it... management should have reliable methods for measuring productivity and maintaining accountability, regardless of the environment.

I enjoy working from home (on occasion) because I am actually allowed to focus on work and be more productive. Despite my best efforts to set boundaries and be direct with people etc, the physical office is a constant stream of different people physically interrupting my work.

No one person does it alone- it is lots of people, throughout the day, stopping by for a “quick question” that devolves into them venting; an unanswered IM that quickly leads them stand in my doorway; getting stopped in the hallway on the way TO the bathroom; and on and on.


26 posted on 07/03/2024 6:18:10 AM PDT by Señor Presidente (Tyranny deserves insurrection)
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To: Señor Presidente

“No one person does it alone”

I’d rather be around my co-workers all the time but eliminating the expense and time of a commute one day a week is nice.

I remember my grandfather saying that some of the trails through the woods in their small town were used by people going to/from work.


27 posted on 07/03/2024 6:36:32 AM PDT by cymbeline (we saw men break out of a concentration camp.”)
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To: SeekAndFind

Yes, WH is hear to stay, especially “hybrid” models which allow workers to retain some of the positives of gathering and being together in person.

Obviously, WFH fits some “jobs” more than others.


28 posted on 07/03/2024 6:39:28 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: steve86
You left out the closing parenthesis, which makes your equation wrong; I wouldn't say here whether I am efficient or inefficient. I got a good review, in any event.
29 posted on 07/03/2024 6:41:29 AM PDT by Dr. Sivana ("Whatsoever he shall say to you, do ye." (John 2:5))
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To: Angelino97

Managing at home workers is a skill.

It is a skill that can be taught and systems can be in place to assist that effort.

It can be done and done well—but it forces the organization to be honest about what they want from workers and how they want to measure it.

When properly monitored and measured work-at-home can significantly improve productivity.

Good organizations and managers get it done.

Bad ones cry it is “impossible”.


30 posted on 07/03/2024 6:48:01 AM PDT by cgbg ("Our democracy" = Their Kleptocracy)
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To: zeestephen

It is a fair point about AI.

It is a danger to most white collar jobs whether at home or in the office.

Middle management is in the most danger.


31 posted on 07/03/2024 6:49:36 AM PDT by cgbg ("Our democracy" = Their Kleptocracy)
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To: woodbutcher1963
FYI, we also don’t smoke or drink on the trading floor either anymore.
Swearing is also generally frowned on.


I didn't see "Wall Street", though it is on my list of movies to see when I have a big bloc of time for watching movies no one else in the family is interested (I use a filter for language, etc.). I invest my 401K in commodities because that is the segment least likely to have moral issues. I also see romance in the trading of raw materials rather than fiat money.

It is rather sad to me that a nursing mother has to spend such an important time with her baby in-between runs to the trading floor.

I am glad the swearing is frowned upon. It has increased EXPONENTIALLY in the workplace. Generally just a handful of people, but they don't even realize it is a deal anymore. The office attire now runs the gamut from torn jeans and the occasional bare midriff to tailored dresses that were once a little too fancy for office wear (the far east Asian ladies dress the best by far). An HR person I know tells me that Covid blew up the whole office attire thing.
32 posted on 07/03/2024 6:49:43 AM PDT by Dr. Sivana ("Whatsoever he shall say to you, do ye." (John 2:5))
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To: T.B. Yoits

“Our remote workers are far more talented than the locals.”

That is a critical strength of the work-at-home system.

The employer can hire the very best employees from all over the country—and even the world if there is not a language barrier.

Obviously that team is going to produce much better results on average.

My experience is like yours. When we went from office teams to virtual teams our productivity increased by a factor of ten once we got our procedures fully in place.


33 posted on 07/03/2024 6:54:22 AM PDT by cgbg ("Our democracy" = Their Kleptocracy)
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To: Dr. Sivana

I personally think that it is much better for her to bring the baby here than stick the kid in day care.
Very few married people have the luxury to let mom stay home and raise the kids like they did when I grew up in the 1960s and 70s.

The bad language has changed because we actually sell to a lot of Amish and Mennonite folks. There were a couple people who were the worst abusers. Frankly, one of them was a new hire young lady. We counted one day home many F bombs she dropped. It was 42. She changed her vocabulary after it was brought to her attention. We also had a jar that you would have to put money in every time you dropped the F bomb. We gave the money to a local food pantry.


34 posted on 07/03/2024 7:17:54 AM PDT by woodbutcher1963
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To: cgbg
My experience is like yours. When we went from office teams to virtual teams our productivity increased by a factor of ten once we got our procedures fully in place.

Our experience too. Just the Atlanta drive-time commute of 1-2 hours, one way, adds to productive time.

35 posted on 07/03/2024 7:19:47 AM PDT by Lazamataz (joesbucks is back. Let's remedy that! 😁)
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To: Dr. Sivana

You are one of my favorite posters (someone else misinterpreted my attempt at humor, sorry).


36 posted on 07/03/2024 7:44:23 AM PDT by steve86 (Numquam accusatus, numquam ad curiam ibit, numquam ad carcerem™)
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To: woodbutcher1963
Very few married people have the luxury to let mom stay home and raise the kids like they did when I grew up in the 1960s and 70s.

I make only an average salary, and we paid for three private adoptions, and we get by. No vacations, smaller house, worse neighborhood, no fine dining, old cars. That also includes two extended periods of unemployment (which wiped out savings). I am also working on the assumption that a stock trader who is any good makes an above average salary, and that most women are hypergametic and have a husband who makes at least as much on average.

But yes, better with mom than not with mom.
37 posted on 07/03/2024 8:04:35 AM PDT by Dr. Sivana ("Whatsoever he shall say to you, do ye." (John 2:5))
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To: Dr. Sivana

Yes, she makes more than her husband.


38 posted on 07/03/2024 9:33:07 AM PDT by woodbutcher1963
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To: woodbutcher1963

How is it that we have more wealth, fewer children, and an inability for mom to take some time off compared to 60 years ago?


39 posted on 07/03/2024 9:42:56 AM PDT by Dr. Sivana ("Whatsoever he shall say to you, do ye." (John 2:5))
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To: Dr. Sivana

Embarrassed that I had completely forgotten the world ‘hypergamy’ and had to ask Perplexity for a rundown on it.

Please do take a short vacation to Show Low and let me know if it would be a good place to retire.


40 posted on 07/03/2024 9:50:34 AM PDT by steve86 (Numquam accusatus, numquam ad curiam ibit, numquam ad carcerem™)
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