As Faith in Police Drops, so Do Arrest Rates

AmmoLand ^ | April 10, 2024 | Dean Weingarten

[marktwain]

A paper at the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC), founded by researcher John Lott, shows how faith in the police, arrest rates, and crime reporting are all interrelated. The paper is titled ” The Collapse in Law Enforcement: As Arrest Rates Plummet, People Have Been Less Willing to Report Crime,” published on April 5, 2024.

As faith in the police collapses, reporting of crime drops, and so do arrest rates and clearance rates for both violent crimes and property crimes.  This has the classic look of a positive feedback loop. The consequences are far from positive.  It is not a clear case of simple cause and effect. Faith in the police, reporting of crimes, and arrest rates are all interconnected in complex ways. From the paper:

But, there is a big problem with using the FBI Uniform Crime Report data on crimes reported to police because victims don’t report most crimes. More importantly, the number of crimes reported to police falls as the arrest rate declines. If people don’t think the police will solve their cases, they are less likely to report them to the police. While the violent crime rate reported to police fell by 1.7% between 2021 and 2022, the National Crime Victimization Survey shows that total violent crime (reported and non-reported) rose from 16.5 to 23.5 per 100,000. Violent crime in 2022 was above the rate the last year before the pandemic in 2019 and above the average for the five years from 2015 to 2019.

Not only does the arrest rate fall when most crimes are not reported, but a falling arrest rate makes faith in the system decline even more, which results in a lower reporting of crimes.

[marktwain]

High trust societies have low crime and are highly productive. As trust in societies institutions drop, so do arrest rates. It is a bad positive feedback loop.

[marktwain]

From Crime Prevention Research Center 2024.

[MtnClimber]

The worse the better - Vladimir Lenin

[Alberta's Child]

I would suggest that the loss of faith in police (which is warranted, in many cases) has been dwarfed by the loss of faith in PROSECUTORS.

[bigbob]

Also correlated: the quality of candidates who replaced the officers who have left because they can’t take the present anti-police and woke prosecution attitudes.

[T.B. Yoits]

The police have shown exactly who they are.

[sten]

All such stats must show which political party controls the area

dems are deliberately promoting lawlessness

[FlingWingFlyer]

That’s the far-left’s plan on how to reduce crime. Time to start arming social workers and put their asses out on the streets. Start with the “probation and parole officers.”

[metmom]

Who would have imagines such a connection?

And some sources say crime rates are dropping.

Well, if you’re not arresting criminals, it would look that way, wouldn’t it?

[Vaduz]

Yes it makes the agenda much easier as we are seeing.

[nonliberal]

The police picked sides during Covid. It wasn’t our side.