Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 1, 2024
The UN OHCHR report highlighted the difference between official Russian and Ukrainian reactions to the mistreatment of POWs, and Russian state media largely misrepresented the report by ignoring assessments about Russia’s systemic mistreatment of Ukrainian POWs. The report noted that Russian government officials and state-owned media regularly use “dehumanizing” language about Ukrainian POWs, that some Russian public figures have explicitly called for the unlawful treatment of Ukrainian POWs, and that there are no known prosecutions or convictions against the Russian perpetrators of torture or ill-treatment of Ukrainian POWs. The report noted how the Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office reported that it had conducted five pre-trial investigations into possible ill-treatment and murder of Russian POWs since mid-August 2024. The UN OHCHR reported that Ukrainian authorities continue to give the organization “regular and unimpeded” access to Russian POWs, whereas Russia has denied access to Ukrainian POWs since the start of the full-scale invasion. Russian state media only reported on the UN OHCHR’s assessments about Ukrainian mistreatment of Russian POWs, withholding the details of the report about Russia’s systemic abuse of Ukrainian POWs.[22]
more + maps https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-1-2024
Senior Russian officials continue to set conditions to justify possible future aggression against the Baltic states. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko gave an interview to Russian state-sponsored media outlet Baltnews that was published on September 30 that portrays Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia as enemies of Russia that have chosen “confrontation” over peace and are supporters of Nazis and neo-Nazism.[67] Grushko claimed that the Baltic states gave up their sovereignty to bolster NATO even though NATO would use these states as the main defensive barrier in a future confrontation with Russia. Kremlin officials have previously used similar accusations of supporting Nazism to justify the invasion of Ukraine, and Grushko’s narrative is also likely aimed at scaring Baltic states from supporting policies that are contrary to Russia's interests in Europe.[68]
Russia continues efforts to codify state ideological values and is using these values to distinguish itself from Western countries. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Consular Department Head Alexei Klimov stated that Russia may expand a list of countries whose citizens can move to Russia under simplified procedures for those individuals who reject “destructive neoliberal values” in their home countries.[69] Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the Russian MFA on August 19 to create this list, which Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin approved on September 20, and the list includes 47 states that the Kremlin claims have “destructive” attitudes that clash with Russian “spiritual and moral” values.[70] The original list notably includes countries that have largely supported Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion, and Klimov did not offer an explanation as to which additional countries would be added to the list.[71]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-2-2024