Posted on 02/24/2024 5:59:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
“700k (Russian casualties) could be reached by Thanksgiving”
And if these rates are sustained, perhaps 800,000 by the third anniversary of the invasion in February, and a million by this time next year.
This is likely unsustainable, especially combined with the equipment, financial and economic losses.
Putin has to go.
Only hope is strong moves towards ending this insanity. I hope the families who are victims of leadership megalomania will have the courage to demand rational action.
—
The war only ends when Putin does. Peace deals are just rearmament times to attack again when a perceived sufficient advantage can be had.
Insane rulers cannot be convinced of anything by sane people, who are seen as trouble makers and to be imprisoned or disposed of.
Can Europe Survive Winter Without Russian Gas?
Analysts are examining that question again, but clearly it becomes less of an issue each Winter.
OilPrice.com reports that Europe still imports about 1/3 of the total amount of Natural Gas (pipeline plus LNG) from Russia that it did in 2021 before the war. (~150 mcm/day, vs 450)
That is going to change at the end of this year, when the transshipment through Ukraine to Hungary, Slovakia and Austria ends. Before that time, storage for this Winter should be well filled.
“The remaining gas flows are roughly split between LNG (4.8bcm in Q2), pipeline flows through Ukraine (4.1 bcm in Q2) and other pipeline routes (primarily flows via Turkey into Bulgaria (3.9 bcm in Q2) as well as a small (negligible) flow via Belarus into Lithuania). Europe has now emerged from two winter seasons with plenty of gas despite dramatically cutting Russian imports.
Europe’s gas stores were nearly 60% full by the end of the winter season in April 2024, a record for the close of the winter season....
...energy commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have reported that there has been zero progress in reducing (Russian) imports since flows through the Nord Stream pipeline system ceased. On the contrary, Europe’s gas imports from Russia have climbed ~50% since Q1-2023.” (from the low baseline when Russia turned off flows at the start of the war - still only 1/3 the pre-war total however)...
...commodity analysts have pointed out that non-Russian LNG flows into the EU have declined by ~140 mcm/d since April, enough, if restored, to replace Russian LNG almost three times over (Indeed, enough to replace all current Russian imports - pipeline and LNG. The infrastructure capacity is already there in total, plus a large margin). According to the analysts, removing the last Russian molecules from the EU is more a matter of political will...
...Bruegel, a Belgium-based economic thinktank... has taken an in depth look at how the EU would fare if the flow of Russian gas to Europe were to be disrupted.
The main conclusion is that the EU could not only go through the next winter without Russian gas, but it could also do so without having to experience economic catastrophe.”
(Russian LNG is not currently embargoed by the EU, but Russian LNG could be sold to other customers at somewhat less profit anyway, so it is not as important/effective for reducing Russian revenue.
Bottom line: Another big chunk of Gazprom’s exports (Druzhba pipeline) is going away in about 4 months, leaving only the Turkstream pipeline operating, of the four major systems before the war - and Europe will do fine without it. Turkey is now building out capacity to fill Turkstream with Azerbaijani and Central Asian gas instead of Russian, at a hectic pace.)
When Putin is gone, it will take 3-6 months to start the gas from the former Russian Federation. They must have money to pay the war damages, besides, there are large gas fields in Ukraine. This means that the sooner we can get rid of the mass murderers in the Kremlin, the sooner we can begin the arduous road to normalcy.
Putin’s traditional values include mass murder, brutal suppression of free speech, totalitarian censorship, child trafficking, the ceremonial murder of his political opposition, and building palace complexes at the cost of hundreds of millions of dollars.
He is also rehabilitating Stalin.
Wondered about the “all” thing, thanks
Also any word on pontoon bridge(s)
That is a good site for info BTW
I thought wildberry was America 1st and who cares about Europe? Hummm
Russia is floating a plan to build a village for conservative Americans who want to move to a 'Christian country' and are tired of liberal ideology in the US
Russia is floating an idea to build a village for hundreds of American and Canadian families who want to run away from the cultural climate in North America.
The village, slated for construction in Moscow's suburbs in 2024, is meant for conservative families who want to "emigrate for ideological reasons," said immigration lawyer Timur Beslangurov on Thursday, according to RIA Novosti.This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Become an Insider and start reading now. Have an account? Log in.
Around 200 families have expressed interest in the project, Beslangurov said in a speech at a legal forum in St. Petersburg, the state outlet reported.
Many of these families don't have Russian roots but are tired of "the inculcation of radical values" in the US and Canada, Beslangurov said.
"Today, they have 70 genders, it is not known what will happen next," he added, per RIA Novosti. The same rhetoric has been used frequently by Russian Vladimir Putin as US-Russia relations worsened over the last several years. In December 2021, he compared gender nonconformity to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Most of the expats who want to move to the village are Catholics and "strongly believe in the prediction that Russia will remain the only Christian country in the world," Beslangurov said.
The village project has been greenlit by authorities, and the new settlers will pay for the construction, Beslangurov added, per state media.
Insider could not independently verify Beslangurov's claims. When contacted by Insider, the lawyer said the project is in the works, but declined to share further details.
The Russian Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment sent outside regular business hours.
Putin has, in recent years, sought to portray Russia as a country that stands for "traditional" moral, social, and religious values.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.