Russian forces conducted a large combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine on the night of October 21 and 22 and struck a Ukrainian kindergarten on the morning of October 22. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 405 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other drones — roughly 250 of which were Shahed drones — from Kursk and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea.[1] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces also launched 11 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from Bryansk and Rostov oblasts and occupied Donetsk Oblast; nine Iskander-K cruise missiles from Kursk and Voronezh oblasts and occupied Crimea; four Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles from the airspace above Rostov Oblast; and four Kh-59/69 cruise missiles from occupied Zaporizhia Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 333 drones, eight Iskander-K cruise missiles, six Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, and two Kh-59/69 missiles; that 12 missiles and 55 drones hit 26 locations; and that drone debris fell on 19 locations. The Ukrainian Air Force noted that 17 drones did not reach their targets as they were “lost in location” (likely referring to Ukrainian electronic warfare [EW] interference). The Ukrainian Air Force reported that the Russian strikes primarily targeted Kyiv Oblast and also affected Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, and Odesa Oblasts. Ukrainian officials reported that the strikes damaged civilian and energy infrastructure in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kirovohrad oblasts.[2] Kyiv City and Oblast officials reported that Russian forces conducted strikes against civilian and energy infrastructure, killing four civilians, including a 12-year-old girl and a six-month-old baby, and injuring 29, including five children.[3] The Ukrainian Ministry of Energy announced that it enacted emergency power shutdowns throughout most Ukrainian oblasts and that Ukrainian officials are working to restore power.[4] The Romanian Ministry of National Defense reported that Romanian forces scrambled two F-16 fighter jets to investigate air targets moving toward the Danube Delta area and that two German Eurofighter Typhoon fighter aircraft took off from Mihail Kogălniceanu Air Base to carry out Enhanced Air Policing missions during the overnight Russian strikes on Ukraine.[5]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that Russian forces conducted a drone strike against a kindergarten in Kharkiv Oblast on October 22, killing one and injuring seven.[6] Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office Head Amil Omerov told Ukrainian outlet Suspilne on October 22 that Russian forces may have used jet-powered Geran-2 drones in Kharkiv Oblast for the first time to strike densely built-up civilian infrastructure, including the kindergarten.[7] Kharkiv City Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported that Russia used three Shahed (Geran) drones to strike a building in which a kindergarten operated.[8] Terekhov noted that all teachers and children evacuated in time to the basement shelter.
The United States announced new economic and military levers in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin's persistent reticence to engage in good-faith negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. The US Treasury announced on October 22 that its Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is imposing further sanctions on Russia as a result of Russia's lack of serious commitment to the process to end the war in Ukraine.[9] US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the United States is sanctioning Russian state oil company Rosneft and the private Russian oil company Lukoil – Russia's two largest oil companies – and that the US Treasury is prepared to take further action if necessary to support US President Donald Trump's effort to end the war. OFAC also blocked all entities of which Rosneft or Lukoil directly or indirectly own 50 percent or more.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on October 22 that US officials stated that the Trump administration lifted restrictions on Ukraine's use of Storm Shadow missiles, which use US intelligence for targeting, to strike Russian territory.[10] A source reportedly stated that the decision to lift the restrictions occurred before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US President Donald Trump on October 17. The WSJ reported that two US officials stated that the Trump administration had not approved any Ukrainian Storm Shadow strikes until recently, when the authority for such strikes moved from US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to US Commander of European Command and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Alexus Grynkewich. US officials reportedly stated that they expect Ukraine to conduct more Storm Shadow strikes against Russia. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that elements of the Ukrainian Air Force, Ground Forces, and Navy struck the Bryansk Chemical Plant in Bryansk Oblast with Storm Shadow missiles on October 21.[11] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that the plant produces gunpowder, explosives, and components for rocket fuel. ISW continues to assess that economic instruments coupled with measures that allow Ukraine to maintain pressure on the battlefield are vital to push Putin to reconsider his theory of victory.[12]
Western reporting indicates that the United States called off the planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin after Russia continued to demonstrate its unwillingness to compromise on its long-standing war demands in Ukraine. Fox News reported on October 22 that Trump called off a meeting with Putin in Budapest after Russia rejected Trump's push for a ceasefire in Ukraine.[13] Trump stated on October 21 that he does not want to have a “wasted meeting.”[14] A White House official stated that there are no plans for a Trump-Putin meeting “in the immediate future.”[15] The Wall Street Journal reported that officials stated that the October 20 call between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov showed that the Kremlin was not compromising on its long-held demand that Ukraine cede all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts to Russia and that Rubio subsequently briefed White House officials after the call, stating that a summit between Trump and Putin was unlikely to yield positive results.[16] Reuters reported that two US officials and a person familiar with the situation stated that Russia sent a non-paper (an informal diplomatic document) to the United States over the weekend of October 18-19 outlining Russian demands.[17] One US official stated that the communique reaffirmed Russia's demand that Ukraine cede all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, an implicit rejection of Trump's call for an immediate ceasefire along the current frontline. Reuters reported that Russia also re-emphasized its demand that a future peace agreement not include the deployment of NATO troops to Ukrainian territory. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on October 22 that Putin has “repeatedly” and “clearly” stated Russia's position and that Russia's stance is “well-known.”[18] Peskov’s October 22 statement is a continuation of recent Kremlin statements demonstrating Russia's unwillingness to agree to US- and Ukrainian-backed proposals for an immediate ceasefire and Russia's commitment to its maximalist war demands.[19]
The Kremlin is setting conditions to exculpate itself for the likely failure of future peace negotiations due to its own unwillingness to engage in good-faith negotiations. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed on October 22 that Russia and the United States have not set the date of the Putin-Trump summit and that there are mostly untrue “rumors and gossip” surrounding the summit.[20] Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO and key Kremlin negotiator Kirill Dmitriev, on October 21, accused Western media of distorting news about the summit to undermine it.[21] Russian Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) Head and Duma Deputy Leonid Slutsky claimed on October 22 that Russian officials continue to prepare for the summit, which Slutsky accused the EU of attempting to disrupt.[22] Russian State Duma International Affairs Committee First Deputy Head Alexei Chepa claimed on October 22 that the meeting will take place, but that the number of days over which the summit will take place is undetermined.[23] Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed on October 22 that Russia and the United States did not agree on a meeting between Rubio and Lavrov in Budapest, but that preparations for the Trump-Putin summit continue.[24] Ryabkov accused those who oppose a peace agreement of attempting to present the situation as having changed in the past few weeks. ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is setting conditions to deflect blame for the lack of progress toward a peace settlement onto the EU and the West, despite Russia's continued adherence to its maximalist war aims that amount to Ukraine's total capitulation.[25] The Kremlin has recently publicly and privately underscored its refusal to make concessions on its demands, as seen in Kremlin officials’ recent statements and the reported non-paper that Russian officials sent to the US.[26]
The Kremlin is using pre-planned strategic missile tests to further its ongoing rhetorical effort to push the United States to agree to concessions on the war in Ukraine in return for US-Russian arms control talks. Russian President Vladimir Putin directed a strategic nuclear forces exercise involving their land, sea, and air components on October 22.[27] Russian forces launched a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from Plesetsk Cosmodrome, a Sineva ballistic missile from the Bryansk nuclear-powered submarine in the Barents Sea, and cruise missiles from Tu-95MS strategic bombers. These exercises are annual and routine: Russia conducted similar exercises on October 26, 2022; October 25, 2023; and October 29, 2024.[28] Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov used the backdrop of the strategic missile tests on October 22 to claim that NATO's alleged “aggressive policies” forced Russia to adopt ”compensatory military-technical measures” and that Russia will not allow NATO to drag it into a ”very costly arms race.”[29] Ryabkov claimed that there are no opportunities for dialogue between Russia and the United States ”on any issues related to non-proliferation.”[30] Ryabkov demanded that the United States reciprocate Russia's proposal to extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) and claimed that the United States bears responsibility for Russia's decision to withdraw from the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Ryabkov's invocation of multiple arms control treaties against the backdrop of the strategic missile test is likely part of a concerted and deliberate Kremlin effort. The Kremlin has been using defunct US-Russian arms control treaties to cater to the bilateral Russia-US relationship in the hopes of securing future concessions on Ukraine. Russia has been moving to withdraw from multiple arms control treaties in recent months, including the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and the Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement (PMDA), while offering to extend New START for one year.[31] Russia's use of both carrots and sticks aims to push the United States to turn its attention away from the war and toward US-Russian bilateral relations.
Ukraine and its European allies are reportedly developing a 12-point proposal to end the war in Ukraine that includes multiple points that the Kremlin has already designated as non-starters. Bloomberg and the Telegraph reported on October 21 that sources familiar with the matter stated that Ukrainian and European leaders are developing a peace plan and that a “peace board” that US President Donald Trump would chair would oversee its implementation.[32] The sources stated that the plan calls for an immediate ceasefire and cessation of further territorial advances.[33] The proposal calls for Russia to repatriate all deported Ukrainian children and for both sides to exchange prisoners. The sources stated that the proposal also calls for Ukraine to receive security guarantees, funding for reconstruction, and a path towards “rapid” EU accession. Bloomberg stated that unspecified actors would gradually lift sanctions against Russia if Russia agreed to the plan, but did not specify which sanctions. The plan proposes that the West return Russia's roughly $300 billion in frozen assets only if Russia contributes to Ukraine's post-war reconstruction. Western states would reportedly reinstate sanctions and freeze Russian assets if Russia attacks Ukraine again. The plan calls for Russia and Ukraine to negotiate the governance of occupied territories, but noted that Europe and Ukraine will not legally recognize any occupied territory as Russian. NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte met with Trump on October 22, reportedly to present the proposal to Trump.[34]
The reported plan is in line with Trump's proposal for an immediate ceasefire along the current frontline, to which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already agreed and which Ukraine's European allies support.[35] The Kremlin has repeatedly publicly expressed its opposition to a ceasefire and continues to reiterate Russia's commitment to achieving its original war goals – as evidenced by the non-paper that Russia reportedly sent to the United States, outlining its demands for Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and rejecting Trump's proposed freezing of the frontline.[36] ISW continues to assess that Russia remains committed to achieving its original war aims and is refusing to engage in good-faith negotiations – in contrast to Ukraine.[37]
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced plans to deploy active reservists to protect infrastructure in the Russian rear, in part to obfuscate likely Kremlin efforts to prepare to deploy reservists to combat in Ukraine in the future. Deputy Chief of the Main Organizational and Mobilization Directorate of the Russian General Staff Vice Admiral Vladimir Tsimlyansky claimed on October 22 that Russian authorities will use reservists to protect critical infrastructure facilities in the deep Russian rear, such as energy and transportation infrastructure and oil refineries, from Ukrainian drone strikes.[38] Reservists are members of Russia's “human mobilization reserve,” an active reserve in which Russian citizens sign a contract with the Russian MoD on a voluntary basis to serve in the reserve while remaining civilians except when called up. Tsimlyansky claimed that mobile fire teams made up of reservists, who were employees of the enterprises and understood the facilities’ vulnerabilities and terrain, have successfully repelled drone strikes in the past. Tsimlyansky claimed that the recent MoD-initiated draft law on reservists (which would permit the Russian military to use reservists from Russia's “human mobilization reserve” in expeditionary deployments outside of Russia without an official Kremlin declaration of mobilization or a state of war) does not mean that Russian authorities will call them up for military service, deploy them to the war in Ukraine, or deploy them outside of Russia.[39] Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairperson Andrei Kartapolov notably stated on October 13 that the law will allow the Kremlin to deploy reservists outside of Russian territory, including to Ukraine's Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts.[40] Tsimlyansky further claimed that there is “no mention” of mobilization.
The Kremlin is using the deployment of reservists to protect critical infrastructure in the Russian rear to appear as if it is addressing a longstanding sensitive issue, while apparently setting conditions to mobilize reservists for combat in the future. Russian milbloggers have complained throughout the war that Russian authorities have not only failed to protect Russian infrastructure from Ukrainian strikes but have been trying to deflect blame for these failures.[41] Russian mobile fire groups across Russia are unlikely to offer sufficient protection against Ukrainian strikes, and Ukraine notably pairs its effective mobile fire groups with other air defense means to protect against Russian drones — an approach Russia would have to adopt to optimize defense of critical infrastructure. A Russian milblogger responded to Tsimlyansky's announcement, noting how this is not a “game-changing solution” but is “just one cog in the overall security system.”[42] The milblogger stated that mobile fire groups without denser radar coverage and more air defense systems will not be effective. Russian authorities are likely trying to downplay the intended effects of the draft law on reservists, which ISW assesses will allow Russia to mobilize members of the active reserve on a rolling basis to sustain combat operations in Ukraine.[43]
Ukrainian forces conducted long-range strikes against Russian energy and defense industrial enterprises overnight on October 21 and 22. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 22 that Ukrainian forces struck a processing unit of the Makhachkala Oil Refinery in the Republic of Dagestan, which has an annual production capacity of one million tons and provides fuel for Russia's Caspian Flotilla naval base.[44] Footage published on October 22 shows an explosion at an industrial area in Makhachkala.[45] Republic of Dagestan Head Sergei Melikov acknowledged on October 22 that Ukrainian drones struck an unspecified enterprise in the region.[46] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces also struck the Saransk Mechanical Plant in the Republic of Mordovia, which produces anti-personnel engineering ammunition and mining kits, ammunition detonators, and initiation units.[47] Geolocated footage published on October 22 shows an explosion at the Saransk Mechanical Plant, and Republic of Mordovia Governor Artem Zdunov claimed that an overnight Ukrainian strike damaged an unspecified facility in the region.[48] Ukrainian intelligence sources told Ukrainian outlets on October 21 and 22 that an overnight explosion occurred at a section of the Pskov-St. Petersburg railway line, which the Russian military frequently uses, and stated that the explosion caused significant damage and disrupted logistics.[49]
The Belarusian Armed Forces will begin their fall conscription cycle on October 23. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on October 22 that the Belarusian Armed Forces will begin their Fall 2025 conscription cycle on October 23 and plan to conscript 10,000 men over 18 for military service between October and November, in addition to sending an additional 500 servicemembers to continue service in the Belarusian Armed Forces reserve.[129]
