Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (2 year anniversary)

“since January of this year, as an example just to give you, on the Russian side, they’ve lost 100,000 soldiers – dead”

Around 500 KIA, every day.

That fatality rate continues to rise, as the war goes on. It is now roughly one killed, for every one lost to injury or illness - an abysmally bad ratio.

... the President doesn’t like wars. He thinks wars are a waste of money and a waste of lives, and he wants them to end.

—
Of course, wars only end when one side achieves military victory over the other, or when the last person willing to die for his side is dead. Wars never end through negotiations, they are just postponed

Wishing for peace is a nice sentiment, but completely contrary to human nature.

Wishing for peace is a nice sentiment, but completely contrary to human nature.

Of course, it's diplospeak. We have to call on each side to end the fighting.

In other news, word is Trump is preparing to send more Patriots, GMLRS rockets, etc. Probably not enough to really make a difference, but...

Trump to use presidential authority to send weapons to Ukraine, sources say

President Trump still has some irons in the fire, for the Russia/Ukraine War.

Kyiv Independent (11 July):

“In an exclusive interview with NBC News on July 10, United States President Donald Trump said he plans to make a “major statement” on Russia next week.

Speaking about the war in Ukraine, Trump told NBC News: “I’m disappointed in Russia, but we’ll see what happens over the next couple of weeks.”

“I think I’ll have a major statement to make on Russia on Monday,” he added. He did not elaborate on the nature of the statement.

Trump also outlined what he described as a new arrangement involving the U.S., NATO, and Ukraine for the transfer of American weapons.

“We’re sending weapons to NATO, and NATO is paying for those weapons, 100%. So what we’re doing is the weapons that are going out are going to NATO, and then NATO is going to be giving those weapons [to Ukraine], and NATO is paying for those weapons,” Trump said.”

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 10, 2025

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed frustration following a June 10 meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov about Russia's lack of progress towards ending the war in Ukraine.[1] Rubio stated after the meeting with Lavrov that he conveyed US President Donald Trump's frustration with Russia's insufficient “flexibility” to end the war.[2] Rubio stated that he and Lavrov shared ideas about “a new or different approach” from Russia and that there must be a “roadmap moving forward” about how the war can end. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) claimed that Rubio and Lavrov discussed their “mutual intention” to find a solution to the war.[3] Kremlin officials’ public statements continue to demonstrate that Russia remains committed to achieving its original war goals in Ukraine and is not interested in good faith negotiations to end the war, however. Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova reiterated on July 9 Russia's original war demands for Ukrainian regime change and “demilitarization.”[4] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed on July 10 that Russia prefers to achieve its war goals through peaceful and diplomatic means but that the war continues and the “realities on the ground” are changing every day.[5] Kremlin officials often call for Ukraine to recognize the “realities on the ground” (a reference to the frontline in Ukraine) to allude to the idea that Russia is in a stronger negotiating position given the battlefield situation and to demand that Ukraine concede to Russia's unwavering demands amounting to complete capitulation to Russia.[6]

The Kremlin continues efforts to use its diplomatic engagements with the United States in an effort to divert attention from the war in Ukraine and toward the potential restoration of US-Russian relations. The Russian MFA readout of the Rubio-Lavrov meeting heavily emphasized Rubio and Lavrov’s reported discussions about bilateral US-Russian issues unrelated to the war in Ukraine, including the restoration of US-Russian contacts, economic and humanitarian cooperation, direct air traffic, and diplomatic missions.[7] The Russian MFA's readout concluded that the United States and Russia will continue dialogue about a “growing range of issues of mutual interest.” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed on July 10 there has been no “slowdown in progress” in developing US-Russian relations.[8] ISW previously assessed that the Kremlin attempted to use economic incentives unrelated to the war in Ukraine and the prospect of US-Russian arms control talks to extract concessions from the United States about the war in Ukraine.[9] ISW also recently assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin unsuccessfully attempted to use Iranian nuclear negotiations and offers to mediate the Israel-Iran war to pose himself to Trump as an effective negotiator as part of efforts to secure concessions on the war in Ukraine.[10] The Kremlin is likely attempting to push the United States to suspend its diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine in exchange for developing US-Russian bilateral relations and economic opportunities.

The Economist assessed that it would take Russia about 89 years to seize all of Ukraine at its current relatively accelerated rate of advance, which has fluctuated throughout the war and is unlikely to remain constant.[11] The Economist published an analysis on July 9 about the ongoing Russian Summer 2025 offensive campaign, which the Economist assessed started on May 1. The Economist found that Russia has seized an average of about 15 square kilometers per day during this offensive effort — roughly the area of the Los Angeles International Airport — cohering with ISW’s own assessment of the Russian rate of advance since May 2025.[12] ISW assesses that Russian forces seized a total of 498.53 square kilometers in May 2025 and 466.71 square kilometers in June 2025, averaging about 15.8 square kilometers per day in May and June 2025. The Economist assessed that it would take Russian forces 89 years to seize the remainder of Ukraine at this rate of advance and until February 2028 to seize the remainder of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts, which Russia has illegally annexed. The Russian rate of advance of 15.8 square kilometers per day is unusually high compared to the Russian rate of advance in Winter 2024-2025 and Spring 2025, and is unlikely to remain constant. The rate of Russian advances in Ukraine has significantly varied throughout the war depending on multiple factors, including the number of active Russian offensive operations on various sectors of the front, the time of year and associated weather and terrain conditions, and Russian and Ukrainian forces’ respective staffing levels and materiel stocks.[13] The Russian rate of advance will very likely continue to fluctuate in the coming months with the onset of the autumn rains and muddy terrain that affect maneuverability, as it has in the prior three years of war.[14]

Russia continues to expend staggeringly high amounts of manpower for its disproportionately small gains. The Economist used a modelling system that factors in “trends in war intensity, territory shifts, and credible open-source and intelligence assessments of losses” to assess Russian personnel casualties.[15] The Economist used this model to estimate that Russia has suffered between 900,000 and 1.3 million personnel casualties since February 24, 2022, including between 190,000 and 350,000 killed-in-action (KIA). The Economist also estimated that Russia may have suffered about 31,000 KIA since May 1 in its Summer 2025 offensive and that Russia has gained about 0.038 square kilometers of territory (or about nine acres) per KIA soldier since about July 2024. Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy Head Pavlo Palisa previously stated that Russia was sustaining roughly 167 KIA and wounded in action (WIA) per square kilometer of advance as of June 4, or about 0.0059 square kilometers or 1.45 acres per WIA or KIA soldier.[16] Russian forces will likely continue to burn through personnel in ongoing summer offensive operations that aim to seize the remainder of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts and advance into Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy oblasts.

Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed Deputy Foreign Minister and Presidential Special Representative to the Middle East and Africa Mikhail Bogdanov on July 9.[30] Kremlin newswire TASS, citing unnamed sources, claimed that Putin released Bogdanov from his duties at Bogdanov’s request for unspecified personal reasons.[31] Bogdanov was heavily involved in the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD)’s efforts to provide military support to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in exchange for a Russian Red Sea naval base, as the Critical Threats Project's Africa File previously assessed.[32] Sudan provides an alternative base for Russian efforts to project power into the Mediterranean and Red Seas and provide logistic support for its military operations across Africa given its bases in Syria are in jeopardy after the fall of the Assad regime.[33] Putin may have dismissed Bogdanov in favor of a replacement who can better manage the situation in the MENA region following the fall of Assad.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-10-2025

Day 1,233 of the Muscovian invasion. 1,040 [average is 836/day], i.e. more than 43 Russians and Norks/h. Vehicles and fuel tanks more than 70% above average. Motorcycles are not counted yet.

Кремлевская табакерка

Putin praised Belousov for the strike on Kiev. The minister promised to try even harder

According to our sources in the Ministry of Defense, the president spoke with Andrei Belousov shortly after we launched a large-scale strike with drones and missiles on Kiev on the night of July 10. “Vladimir Vladimirovich specifically contacted Andrei Removich. He was very pleased. He said that we brilliantly showed everyone the power of Russian weapons, that the Russian army has no equal in the whole world, when we struck the capital of the Kiev regime,” one of the channel's interlocutors reported. Belousov, in response, promised “to try even harder and pray for our success.”

The Kremlin confirmed the fact of the conversation to us. And they added that Putin also instructed Belousov to take measures to speed up the army's advancement at the front. And he expects information from the military about what is needed for this.

https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/5903

Moscow has held a farewell ceremony for former Transport Minister Roman Starovoit, and his funeral is scheduled for July 11. According to the official version, Roman Starovoit committed suicide by shooting himself in the head. It is expected that Starovoit will be buried at the ancient Orthodox Smolenskoye Cemetery in St. Petersburg. At the moment, the well-maintained necropolis has the status of an active closed one. Only repeated burials are allowed here on a plot where the grave of a previously deceased relative is already located.

The Smolenskoye Cemetery is famous for the fact that it contains the grave of Xenia of Petersburg - one of the most revered Russian saints in the Orthodox world. Every year, thousands of pilgrims come to pray at the burial place of Blessed Xenia and before her holy image in the chapel.

The news about the choice of the cemetery and the whole entourage with Starovoit’s death, according to a source of the Cheka-OGPU, became the main topic of discussion during the farewell in Moscow: was it really a suicide? An important feature of religious traditions is that suicides are not usually kept in cemeteries near holy relics and churches, as well as the fact that suicides are not given a funeral service. Relatives of the deceased can achieve a funeral service for their relative who committed suicide only in the case of proof of his illness or proof that he was driven to suicide. To do this, you need to submit an application to the Moscow Patriarchate with the attached documents. The Patriarchate considers the application of relatives within one day and, if the decision is positive, issues permission for the funeral service for the suicide. Considering that Starovoit was close to Konstantin Goloshchapov (Putin's massage therapist, Kostya Moschevoz, founder of the “Russian Athos Society”), such permission could have been quickly issued.

But there was no stopping the conspiracy theorists from the farewell (and some officials unwittingly shift the situation with Starovoit onto themselves). The source says that the most discussed version was that after his resignation from the post of minister, Starovoit was given a day before his arrest to think about what “interesting” he could tell. And he is the Rotenbergs’ man, he was very close to them. And it is clear that they expected something interesting from him. The Rotenbergs are no longer untouchable, there are rumors that in October, Arkady Rotenberg was unable to congratulate Putin on his birthday for the first time in his life. And then there was a certain meeting with Starovoit, which ended in death. In favor of this version, the conspiracy theorists also say that there were allegedly no surveillance cameras near the park on Rublevka that would capture the moment Starovoit’s Tesla drove up, how he got out, and what happened next. This is very strange.

https://t.me/rucriminalinfo/3063

It seems that for other officials, the former Minister of Transport Roman Starovoit, who according to the official version committed suicide, is becoming a certain hero and a symbol of a small protest. Sources of the Cheka-OGPU said that at the farewell in Moscow, the most noticeable wreath was one with the inscription “I have the honor.” Moreover, it was not from relatives, but from one of the officials. It was with the phrase “I have the honor” that Starovoit ended his message to his colleagues at the Ministry of Transport, upon learning of his resignation. A few hours later, he was found dead.

“The daughters cried loudly at the coffin, did not leave for a long time. One lay down on the coffin and cried for a long time. The mother gave a speech. She talked about what he was like at school, about his family - about his grandfather, about his father. She spoke for a long time ... She repeated several times: remember him as decent and honest. And she bowed to everyone for coming. At that moment, those gathered began to cry. One woman said: “I can't listen to this.” And she walked away. After the farewell, the mother went outside and sat on a bench. Someone they knew, either the driver or the security, approached her. And she started telling him about her son, when she last sent a text message... She wanted to get it off her chest, apparently. She was the one who spoke the most at the farewell.

A lot of people came. They wrote that 200, that was probably it. People came by bus. They came from different regions - Tatarstan, Kursk. Polina was not there. [Polina Kopylova, the lover of Starovoyt]

There were a lot of wreaths, about 30 for sure. Two wreaths had the RF ribbon, such wreaths are usually sent by Putin and Mishustin. It was difficult to approach and examine the wreaths. In the hall they were watching to make sure that people did not walk around and did not film anything. Filming was strictly prohibited,” our interlocutor described the event.

https://t.me/rucriminalinfo/3073

Кремлевская табакерка
Putin “could not send a wreath to the funeral of the weakling and traitor Starovoit.” Those who came to bid farewell to the former minister may be investigated by the FSB

A source in the Kremlin explained the situation to us, commenting on the fact that RIA Novosti first wrote that Vladimir Putin sent a wreath to bid farewell to Starovoit, and then cancelled this news. “I told you the day before : Vladimir Vladimirovich considers Starovoit a weakling. I will add that he also considers him a coward and a traitor, one of the main culprits of Ukraine's invasion of the Kursk region last year. That is why he could not send a wreath to bid farewell to this subject. There was a mistake in the journalists’ report, it happens to everyone,” our source said.

Another representative of the Presidential Administration confirmed these words. And he wants to initiate an FSB investigation of all ministers and other officials who were at Starovoit’s farewell. He is sure that it is necessary to check, in particular, whether they are involved in the criminal schemes of the deceased. The FSB told us that they have not yet received any requests or instructions regarding such checks. But, if necessary, they are ready to start them at any time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arkady_Rotenberg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Rotenberg_(businessman)

To be continued

Knives Out in Moscow!

Paranoia must be rising toward Stalinist purge levels.

Moving up the scale from fear, to terror.

Russia is reported to be planning a major offensive into the Sumy, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions and an offensive against Odesa over the summer, using North Koreans to secure the Russian border. The Russian writer Maxim Kalashnikov calls it “practically fantastical”.

According to the private Telegram channel Razvedchik (’Scout’), the Russian General Staff has given Vladimir Putin a plan for an offensive “in the second half of the summer” of 2025. The channel reports what its sources say about the proposal:

“They are proposing to release the military for the operation from border protection, and North Korean soldiers are being trained to replace them. “The Chief of the General Staff personally reported to the president on the readiness for a large-scale phase of the operation in the coming months with an extension beyond the new territories [i.e. Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson]. “The main scenario, which insiders have become familiar with, plans to break through deep into the Sumy, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions to create a buffer zone by the end of the summer. The document also includes plans to reach Odesa.

“The General Staff is proposing to the president to expand the control zone as much as possible before the autumn rains, when the muddy roads will make it difficult to use equipment and force the parties to switch to positional defense. “According to the source, Russia should have enough resources for such an operation.”

Maxim Kalashnikov, a nationalist author and agitator who co-founded the Club of Angry Patriots with the jailed Igor Girkin, is very sceptical. He writes:

“I consider this practically fantastical. Even if 30,000 North Koreans replace our border guards, a major offensive (with forcing the [crossing of the] Dnipro!) will not work.
The issue of paralysing the rear of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by an air operation has not been resolved. The command and supply of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has not been destroyed. Therefore, the issue of the enemy's mass use of drones, creating a “death zone” fifty miles from the “ribbon” [border], has not been resolved.

“That is, the enemy will inflict monstrous losses on our equipment and infantry, turning our attempts to advance into something like Passchendaele or the “Nivelle massacre” in WWI, while holding the line with fairly stretched forces. “Our quantitative superiority (but not qualitative and not in terms of the organisation of drones) does not solve the problem. We have not put our Air Force in order and therefore do not ensure the isolation of local areas of combat operations.

“Therefore - what kind of push to Odesa can there be? Only the slow squeezing out of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at an extremely high price. Otherwise, the flabby system, permeated with nepotism and simony, corruption and inertia, cannot conduct a military operation. “One thing is certain: summer is the last attempt. Then the raging crisis in the Russian economy puts an end to the country's ability to wage war. Both Ukraine and the Russian Federation are running out of steam.

“No “cosmetic edits” can fix the tangle of obvious missed opportunities and complete disregard for the experience of modern wars that has wound up since 2014 and since 2022. “It's too late to drink Borjomi [mineral water] when your kidneys have failed. So we'll have to do as Trump wants...” /end

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1943017722838761867.html

from https://t.me/roy_tv_mk/16147

Hunting Down Russian Spies With Norway’s Intelligence Service
A small Arctic town has become a hub for suspicious activity following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022

Paranoia pervades the placid border town of Kirkenes in Norway’s far north. Residents are routinely trailed by unknown men. The Wall Street Journal’s camera crew was photographed and followed around town by a suspicious vehicle with no license plate. Most locals warn you to keep your wits about you because, as one said in a hushed tone, “the Russians are watching.”

The Journal’s video shows us accompanying Norway’s domestic intelligence agency, the PST, on patrol for Russian spies. We meet residents convinced they are under Russian surveillance and we find out firsthand what it feels like to be trailed.
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/hunting-down-russian-spies-with-norways-intelligence-service-649c7653

12 m video

22AUG2024 Emails of newly appointed FSB Fifth Service Chief, General Alexei Komkov, reportedly going on sale

The Telegram channel Black Mirror, known for exposing the correspondence of Russian officials and law enforcement personnel, has published a photo of General Alexei Komkov - the newly-appointed head of the FSB’s Fifth Service. The image shows Komkov with friends at a billiard table and is captioned: “from the archive exhibited in a private channel.”

https://theins.ru/images/XabAc7U2Rm8JrxIyeHKnfaD2zs7vakZV3E2aOJw73do/rs:auto:0:0:0:0/dpr:1/q:80/bG9jYWw6L3B1Ymxp/Yy9zdG9yYWdlL2Nv/bnRlbnRfYmxvY2sv/aW1hZ2UvMjc3OTAv/ZmlsZS1lZjQwYzk4/ZjZlYjU0OThhMGUy/OGU0ZGQ0NTZlMmNl/OS5qcGc.jpg

based on this

https://theins.ru/images/hTwMXULQZ0xUXNy5TI04uUpJQpERJp0CZ-8g481ykRc/rs:auto:0:0:0:0/dpr:1/q:80/bG9jYWw6L3B1Ymxp/Yy9zdG9yYWdlL2Nv/bnRlbnRfYmxvY2sv/aW1hZ2UvMjc3OTEv/ZmlsZS0yNjdhODI1/NDIzNGJiNGI5MTYw/NmJiMTk5NWQ0NDBm/ZS5qcGc.jpg

General Komkov recently took over as head of the FSB’s Fifth Service - the Service for Operational Information and International Relations - replacing General Sergey Beseda, who fell out of favor following the failed invasion of Ukraine and a series of corruption scandals. Before his promotion, Komkov was the deputy head of the FSB’s counterintelligence service. In his short time in the new role as head of the Fifth Service, Komkov appears to have made an impact. On Aug. 1, Russia concluded a successful operation to exchange political prisoners for Russian spies embarrassed in the West — including FSB hitman Vadim Krasikov, who was serving a life sentence in Germany up until the swap was agreed.

17MAY2019 Head of FSB Internal Security Directorate, who was involved in the arrest of “Colonel Zakharchenko from counterintelligence,” has moved to another job

The head of the FSB Internal Security Directorate, Alexey Komkov, has moved to another job. As Rosbalt reported on May 17, citing its sources in the special services, he has been appointed deputy head of the FSB Military Counterintelligence Service. According to the publication's sources, the personnel changes took place between the May holidays. It should be noted that Komkov became the head of the Internal Security Directorate in August 2016; before that, he headed the 2nd FSB Service (Service for the Protection of the Constitutional Order and the Fight against Terrorism).

Rosbalt emphasizes that it was the Internal Security Directorate under Komkov’s leadership that detained the head of the banking department of the FSB Directorate “K” Colonel Kirill Cherkalin at the end of April.

https://www.fontanka.ru/2019/05/17/029/

Alexey Komkov (Russian: Алексей Комков) was the head of the FSB Internal Security Directorate from September 2016 after the 8 July 2016 resignation of the former head of the FSB Internal Security Directorate Sergey Borisovich Korolev who was promoted to the post of head of the Economic Security Service of the FSB of Russia, which vacated the chair of Korolev in the CSS. Alexey Komkov headed the FSB Internal Security Directorate until 2018 when he was transferred to the FSB Counterintelligence Service. Komkov is a protégé of Sergey Korolev

Sergei Borisovich Korolev (Russian: Сергей Борисович Королёв is a Russian intelligence officer currently serving as first deputy director of the Federal Security Service (FSB). He previously served as head of the Economic Security Service of the FSB from 2016 to 2021. A secretive figure with extensive connections to the Russian mafia, he is considered one of the leading candidates to succeed Alexander Bortnikov as director of the FSB.

Korolev moved to the FSB in September 2011, appointed head of the Internal Security Directorate (known as the 6th Service or CSS (Russian: «Шестерка»))

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_B._Korolev Transneft Vice President Dies in Apparent Fall From Window, Reports Say

The vice president of Russia's state-owned oil pipeline monopoly Transneft has died after allegedly falling from a window at his home in the upscale Moscow suburb of Rublyovka, state media reported Friday. Transneft confirmed Andrei Badalov’s death at age 62 but did not comment on the circumstances. The company said his work came during a “difficult and stressful period” marked by Western sanctions.

Badalov’s body was found beneath the windows of a home on the Rublyovo-Uspenskoye highway, the state-run TASS news agency reported, citing an unnamed law enforcement source. “The preliminary cause of death is suicide,” the source said, adding that a preliminary investigation was underway.

Badalov had overseen Transneft’s digital transformation since his appointment as vice president in July 2021. His death is the latest in a string of high-profile and unexplained deaths among senior executives in Russia's energy sector since the country launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

At least four deaths in 2022 were linked to the state energy giant Gazprom, while others involved executives from Novatek and Lukoil.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/07/04/transneft-vice-president-dies-in-apparent-fall-from-window-reports-say-a89678 t">

Eerily quiet in Kyiv now after a thunderous storm of attack drones and ballistic missiles, lasting about 2 hours. Daughter sleeping peacefully in bathtub - if there were a direct hit on our house the metal tub might give her some protection and an increased chance of survival.

https://bsky.app/profile/euanmacdonald.bsky.social/post/3lt3ytmzivk2l

Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (2 year anniversary)
07/04/2025 12:55:03 AM PDT · 18,019 of 18,231
AdmSmith
Map of routes of weapons fired at Ukraine by fascist Russia overnight. Shahed drones circled the Ukrainian capital and then converged to subject Kyiv to a massive bombardment, followed up by a missile attack in the early hours.
https://bsky.app/profile/euanmacdonald.bsky.social/post/3lt4jp3l3xc23 >
Day 1,226 of the Muscovian invasion. 1,200 [average is 835/day], i.e. more than 46 Russians and Norks/h. Vehicles and fuel tanks more than 150% and artillery more than 105% above average. Motorcycles are not counted yet.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 3, 2025
Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected US President Donald Trump's call for a quick peace in Ukraine during a phone call with Trump on July 3.[1] Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov claimed on July 3 that Trump once again raised the issue of a quick end to Russia's war in Ukraine and that Putin claimed that Russia continues its efforts for a negotiated end to the war. Ushakov claimed, however, that Putin reiterated that Russia “will achieve its goals” and “eliminat[e] the root causes” that led to the war and that “Russia will not back down from these goals,” essentially emphasizing that Russia will continue its war on its own terms. Ushakov claimed that Putin and Trump discussed the possibility of a third round of Ukrainian–Russian negotiations in Istanbul and agreed that peace negotiations will continue in a bilateral format at an unspecified date. Ushakov claimed that Putin and Trump did not discuss the recent US decision to halt military aid shipments to Ukraine but discussed bilateral economic projects, including in the energy and space spheres.
Putin's stated commitment to his goals in Ukraine, including eliminating the so-called “root causes” of the war directly contradicts his claim that Russia supports meaningful negotiations to end the war. Putin and other Kremlin officials have repeatedly referred to the need for any future peace settlement to eliminate the alleged “root causes” of the war to allude to Russia's unwavering demands for regime change in Ukraine, Ukrainian neutrality, and changes to NATO's foundational open-door policy.[2] ISW continues to assess that Russia remains uninterested in good-faith peace negotiations to end the war. Putin's statement that Russia will not back down from its goals further demonstrates Putin's willingness to prolong the war in Ukraine and achieve his goals through military means should Russia be unable to force Ukraine to capitulate through diplomatic means — in direct contrast to Trump's calls for a speedy end to the war. The Kremlin has continually indicated in recent weeks that there are no plans yet for a third round of bilateral negotiations in Istanbul, so it is unclear if or when bilateral Ukrainian–Russian negotiations will resume.[3] ISW continues to assess that Russia will likely leverage any future negotiations to try to extract concessions from Ukraine and the United States while Russian forces continue efforts to secure additional gains on the battlefield through creeping and highly attritional advances. Russia previously exploited peace talks with Ukraine in Istanbul to obfuscate its own uninterest in meaningful negotiations, and any future Ukrainian–Russian negotiations on anyone's terms but Kyiv’s are very unlikely to bring about Trump's desired expeditious end to the war and just and lasting peace.
Details about the recent US suspension of aid to Ukraine remain unclear. Journalists for National Public Radio (NPR) and the Economist stated on July 2 and 3 that the United States halted aid shipments to Ukraine in Poland that included 30 PAC-3 interceptors for Patriot air defense systems; 8,496 155mm high explosive howitzer munitions; 142 AGM-114 Hellfire air-to-ground missiles; 252 Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) rockets; 25 missiles for Stinger man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS); 125 AT-4 grenade launchers; and 92 AIM air-to-air missiles.[4] The Economist reported on July 3 that the Pentagon turned around planes carrying air defense interceptors and other US military aid to Ukraine on June 30 and July 1, suspending deliveries.[5] US Department of State Spokesperson Tammy Bruce stated on July 3 that Trump has indicated his “remaining commitment” to US provisions of Patriot interceptors to Ukraine.[6] Bruce stated that the United States “hasn't paused” sending weapons to Ukraine but that the recent suspension is “one aspect, one situation, one event that has been changed.” Chief Pentagon Spokesperson Sean Parnell stated on July 2 that the US Department of Defense (DoD) “paused” weapons shipments to Ukraine to conduct a “capability review” to ensure that US military aid aligns with the DoD’s defense priorities while preserving US military readiness.[7] Parnell stated that DoD recommendations about military aid to Ukraine are consistent with US President Donald Trump's stated goal of ending the war in Ukraine.
A Ukrainian strike killed the deputy commander-in-chief of the Russian Navy in Kursk Oblast, and an unknown actor may have assassinated a high-ranking Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) official in Moscow City. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) acknowledged on July 3 that Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Major General Mikhail Gudkov died on July 2 during combat operations in the Kursk Oblast border area.[8] Gudkov previously served as commander of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet), and Russian President Vladimir Putin promoted him to deputy commander-in-chief of the Russian Navy in March 2025.[9] Primorsky Krai Governor Oleg Kozhemyako reported on July 3 that Captain Second Rank Nariman Shikhaliev died alongside Gudkov.[10] Gudkov’s obituary from the “Typhoon” All-Russian Organization of Naval Infantry stated that Ukrainian forces launched a missile strike against the command post of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade near Korenevo, Kursk Oblast, on July 2, killing over 10 servicemembers, including Gudkov and several senior officers.[11] Ukrainian military observer Yuriy Butusov reported that the strike killed Gudkov’s deputy and 20 other Russian servicemembers.[12] Radio Svoboda stated that “unconfirmed official reports” suggest that a Ukrainian HIMARS strike killed Gudkov.[13] Telegram channel Nexta additionally claimed on July 3 that there are unconfirmed reports that Alexei Komkov, head of the FSB’s Fifth Directorate, which is officially tasked with overseeing operational information and international relations, died after a car exploded in central Moscow City.[14] ISW cannot confirm the death of Komkov or the actor responsible for the reported car explosion in Moscow City.
Ukraine's Western allies continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, but the United States remains the only Ukrainian partner that can provide certain critical weapons systems – especially air defenses — at scale and quickly. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on July 3 that Ukraine signed a memorandum on a long-term strategic partnership with US autonomous system engineering company Swift Beat, agreeing to produce hundreds of thousands of interceptor drones in 2025 that are capable of shooting down Russian Shahed drones and to expand production further in 2026.[17] Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov also announced on July 1 that Ukraine is launching a joint arms production program with its international Ramstein format partners to produce weapons for the Ukrainian military in Ukraine and abroad.[18] Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson stated on July 3 that Sweden is allocating an additional 1.5 billion Swedish kroner (roughly $156 million) to purchase over 10 new Archer artillery barrels, augment long-range strike and underwater capabilities, and support unspecified logistical support for Ukraine.[19] The Latvian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on July 2 that Belgium and Turkey joined the UK- and Latvian-led international drone coalition.[20] The Latvian MoD also announced on July 1 that it approved the transfer of 42 Patria armored personnel carriers (APCs) and other military equipment to Ukraine.[21] UK defense and security enterprise Prevail Partners announced on July 2 that it launched a joint partnership with Ukrainian drone manufacturer Skyeton International to increase production of long-range drones as part of efforts to supply drones to Ukraine and provide the UK with modern military equipment.[22] Unspecified German security forces told German media outlet Die Welt on July 1 that Germany signed a contract to finance the production of over 500 Antonov-196 (AN-196) ”Lyutyi” long-range drones for Ukraine.[23] ISW continues to assess that US aid to Ukraine, particularly Patriot air defense systems and interceptors, is critical to Ukraine's ability to protect its defense industrial base (DIB) and safeguard the capabilities it obtains from its partners in the face of long-range Russian strikes.[24] Such US-provided systems are required soh that Ukraine's DIB can grow to be largely self-sufficient and able to sustain Ukraine's materiel requirements with domestic production.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-3-2025
Iranian Regime tv Channel One hacked while it was airing Khamenie speech
Iran Update, July 3, 2025
US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have likely degraded Iran's ability to develop a nuclear arsenal. US and Israeli strikes damaged or destroyed the Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant (FPFP) and Uranium Metal Conversion Plant at the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC), both of which are used in the final steps of building a nuclear weapon.[1] These facilities could have supported metallization, which is the process of converting uranium hexafluoride into dense metal for an explosive core.[2] A nuclear analyst at a Washington, D.C.–based think tank reported on July 2 that US and Israeli strikes on Iran's uranium metal conversion facilities at the ENTC did not significantly delay Iran's nuclear timeline.[3] The analyst stated that Iran could still produce enough uranium metal for a nuclear weapon (25 kilograms) in “weeks, perhaps even days” without these facilities.[4] The analyst assessed that Iran likely already knows how to produce uranium metal, citing an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report that stated that Iran produced over 100 kilograms of uranium metal from green salt at a laboratory in Tehran between 1995 and 2002.[5] CTP-ISW previously assessed that, if Iran were to pursue a nuclear weapons program, it would likely pursue a nuclear arsenal rather than a single nuclear weapon. A nuclear arsenal would require more than 25 kilograms of uranium metal and significant amounts of highly enriched uranium. The Institute for Science and International Security previously assessed that US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran's main enrichment facilities, Fordow and Natanz, “effectively destroyed” Iran's enrichment program and that it will take a “long time” for Iran to restore its enrichment capabilities to pre-strike levels.[6] Large enrichment facilities like Fordow and Natanz would likely be necessary for Iran to develop nuclear weapons at scale.
Iran would also need to miniaturize a nuclear warhead to mount it on a ballistic missile. Iran could attempt to build a simple gun-type nuclear bomb, which is similar to the one the United States dropped on Hiroshima. A gun-type nuclear bomb needs 25 kilograms of 90 percent enriched uranium. The New York Times reported in February 2025 that a secret Iranian team may have been working on a faster way to build this type of bomb.[7] US officials said that the design would not fit on a missile and would be less reliable than a modern warhead. Iran would have to use an aircraft or another crude delivery method with this type of nuclear weapon Iran would also need the facilities and expertise to build even a simple gun-type bomb. Israeli killings of Iranian nuclear scientists and US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities likely degraded that capability.[8] A US weapons expert noted that US and Israeli strikes have “significantly” increased the time required for Iran to “build even a non-missile deliverable weapon,” such as a gun-type nuclear bomb.[9]
Israel is reportedly drafting a mechanism to prevent Iran from being able to rebuild its nuclear program following the conclusion of the Israel–Iran War, according to Israeli media.[17] The mechanism is reportedly similar to the US-approved Israeli mechanism for monitoring the ceasefire in Lebanon that allows Israel to conduct preemptive operations against Hezbollah if Hezbollah violates the November 2024 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement.[18] Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz previously stated that Israel would pursue a “policy of enforcement” to prevent Iran from rebuilding its nuclear capabilities, air defenses, and missile production.[19] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will reportedly discuss the draft mechanism with US President Donald Trump next week.[20] Israeli media added that Israel is conducting “under-the-radar” talks with Russia regarding Iran and Syria, but did not specify what Israel has discussed with Russia.[21]
Israel destroyed a large number of Iranian ballistic missile sites during the Israel–Iran War. see text

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-3-2025

Admiral Kuznetsov—The Last Soviet Carrier—Could Be Scrapped as Russia's Naval Ambitions Falter

The Russian Ministry of Defense is reportedly considering abandoning repairs of its sole aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, after years of delays, cost overruns, and repeated disasters. The warship, laid up since 2018, may now be scrapped entirely, sources told Izvestia on July 11.

According to the report, both the Russian Navy command and United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC)—the state-owned company responsible for the carrier's overhaul—are in active discussions about whether it is worthwhile to return the heavily damaged ship to operational service. For now, all repair and modernization work has been suspended.

Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov starts its engines

https://united24media.com/latest-news/admiral-kuznetsov-the-last-soviet-carrier-could-be-scrapped-as-russias-naval-ambitions-falter-9800

“We’re sending weapons to NATO, and NATO is paying for those weapons, 100%. So what we’re doing is the weapons that are going out are going to NATO, and then NATO is going to be giving those weapons [to Ukraine], and NATO is paying for those weapons,” Trump said.”

This is potentially significant. Maybe we won’t have “Peace in our time” after all.

“Per Gordan Chang on Maria Bartiromo this morning: China has has officers in Ukraine for while now as ‘observers’. Now they are sending troops.”

I would not trust that ‘report’.

Agree, the Muscovites are afraid of inviting Chinese officers and soldiers as they expect them to enter Manchuria later: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Manchuria

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Manchuria

“I would not trust that ‘report’” (Gordon Chang saying that China is sending “troops” to Ukraine)

Perhaps by “troops” they mean Enlisted soldiers, as opposed to just Officers. They might still be in non-combat “observer” roles. Maybe capturing lessons learned with drone use.

Perhaps by “troops” they mean Enlisted soldiers, as opposed to just Officers. They might still be in non-combat “observer” roles. Maybe capturing lessons learned with drone use.
—

Chang was very clear about that. Officers have been in Ukraine for sometime as ‘observers’. Now, China sending in enlisted troops - amount not specified.

I don’t particularly like the guy but he often is right on his China reporting.

I believe the Chinese enlisted troops would train and perform as FPV pilots and would not participate in meat-wave attacks.

Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (2 year anniversary)

Iranian Regime tv Channel One hacked while it was airing Khamenie speech