Posted on 02/24/2024 5:59:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned. Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. Similarly, some of the captured equipment might be destroyed if it can't be recovered. When a vehicle is captured and then lost in service with its new owners, it is only added as a loss of the original operator to avoid double listings. When the origin of a piece of equipment can't be established, it's not included in the list. The Soviet flag is used when the equipment in question was produced prior to 1991. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available.
(Excerpt) Read more at oryxspioenkop.com ...
What is really going on is anyone’s guess, but the rosy picture painted for economy, not so public sentiment, and SMO is not.
Think of 150k killed and another 300k wounded.
Out of a population of 150 million, that is no small sum
How much Ukraine has in the tank and how muck new aid will help is also anyone’s guess
How long until NATO imposes a no fly zone over Ukraine?
—
They can’t. To do so, NATO countries would have to run SEAD missions deep into Russia.
Richard Nixon on Russia
Excerpts from Richard Nixon’s Beyond Peace, published in 1994
https://www.nixonfoundation.org/2022/02/richard-nixon-russia/
“how muck new aid will help is also anyone’s guess”
Intelligence Community testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday (via Kyiv Independent): “the all-out war is unlikely to end “anytime soon.”
“Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “paranoid fear” of the West seeking to limit Russia’s power has led him to spend historically record amounts on militarization, Director of U.S. National Intelligence Avril Haines said on May 2, according to Voice of America.
The Kremlin has increased defense spending to nearly 7% of Russia’s GDP, almost double the historical average. Russia’s defense budget accounts for roughly 25% of all federal spending as of now, considering the U.S. National Intelligence calculations.
“Putin continues to believe that Russia is under threat and almost certainly assumes that a larger, better-equipped military will convey that opinion to Western and domestic audiences,” Haines said during the hearing in Congress.
The Russian president continues to perceive NATO’s expansion and Western assistance for Ukraine as “the U.S. and Europe trying to limit Russia’s power,” according to Haines.
Putin is assured that the current domestic and international events are benefiting him, while he is trying to take advantage of the conflict between Israel and Hamas to divide the Western allies as well, the U.S. National Intelligence chief added.
Haines also assumed that Moscow is likely to continue its “increasingly aggressive tactics” against Ukraine, including attacks on energy infrastructure, and the all-out war is unlikely to end “anytime soon.”
Moscow attacked Ukraine with over 3,2000 guided aerial bombs, nearly 300 Shahed-type drones, and over 300 missiles in April alone, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.”
Latvia starts digging anti-tank ditch near border with Russia
Kyiv Independent reports:
“The Latvian army has started to dig an anti-tank ditch as part of its first defensive line near the border with Russia, Latvian public broadcaster LSM reported on May 2.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sparked concerns that the Baltic states, which are among Moscow’s biggest critics and Kyiv’s staunchest allies since day one of the all-out war, could become the next target of Russia’s aggression.
These fears are reinforced by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s repeated threats to NATO countries.
A chain of strongholds will be set up along Latvia’s border with Russia and Belarus, including defensive fortifications, various obstacles, and ammunition depots, according to LSM.
The first defensive line is being built near the Terekhovo border crossing in Ludza municipality at a distance of around a kilometer from the border with Russia.
...Latvia’s “anti-mobility plan” includes both artificial and natural obstacles such as forests and rivers, according to Lazdins. Barriers are built without explosives and minefields may be laid in case of hostilities, he added...
...Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania agreed in late January to build a Baltic defense line in the coming years to strengthen the eastern border with Belarus and Russia.”
RIA Novosti, 05/03/24
https://t.me/rian_ru/243826
Berlin firefighters publish photos from the Diehl plant, which is on fire in the Lichterfelde district
[ Video ] The Diehl factory building on fire in Berlin burned down to the roof, and part of the building collapsed, firefighters say.
It is not possible to bring the fire under control; the danger warning remains in force - because it is not clear how the situation will develop further.
—
Kremlin snuff box, 05/03/24
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
Is Russia involved in the massive fire in Berlin?
An unusual situation occurred this afternoon. After information about a serious fire in Berlin began to appear in the press , two of our sources in law enforcement agencies contacted us. One high-ranking officer sent the news with the accompanying text “Serves them right 🔥 🔥 🔥 “.
The second officer made it clear that this fire did not just happen. At such moments, it is important to maintain a sober mind. Therefore, we will try to explain what happened.
First, rumors began to appear that the specified enterprise was taking part in the production of IRIS-T air defense systems. Our sources have not confirmed this information.
The fire broke out at the Diehl Metall metallurgical plant, where sulfuric acid and copper cyanide were stored.
Second, is the enterprise connected with the military industry? Previously, the information has not been confirmed.
Third, the cause of the serious fire is now being established. We have nothing to say here, since we do not have access to the place. There are competent authorities, they must assess what happened after the consequences have been eliminated.
Fourth, and most importantly! Could Russia have anything to do with what happened?
Intelligence sources admit off the record that the specified enterprise was quite recently on the list of enterprises associated with the German Bundeswehr. The interlocutors do not hide the fact that our country’s special services conduct operations on the territory of NATO countries.
This is normal practice. It’s curious, but sources in the FSB admit that it has now become much more difficult to conduct operations in Ukraine than in Europe. But our special services were probably not involved in the fire in Berlin.
The 2023 NDAA, passed in late 2022, included 1700 ATACMS Missiles in a multi-year buy (up to 5 years). That's almost 350/year. Before this order, ATACMS was in low rate production for foreign sales. With all the HIMARS being sold around the world, they might need another production line, or licence some production lines in Europe.
It's really a separate topic, but Europe needs to start building their own short and medium range ballistic missiles.
“Putin is assured “, like he was assured that SMO would work out fine.
I do wonder what he believes and what he has been told and not told about conditions with the war and within his country
All indications are he depends on others to know what is happening
“Scoop: US is in talks with close partners to lead a group of allies that would give as much as $50 billion in aid to Ukraine, with the massive outlay being repaid with the windfall profits from sovereign Russian assets”
https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1786455377665507369
UK recently said 450k.
France says 500k.
“French foreign affairs minister:
Russia has had 500,000 casualties in Ukraine, including 150,000 fatalities.
“And what is this all for? Long story short, it’s all for nothing.””
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1786396600064942248
“US is in talks with close partners to lead a group of allies that would give as much as $50 billion in aid to Ukraine”
I am guessing this will be for the G-7 Summit in June.
They used to be the G-8, before Putin invaded Ukraine, and got his country kicked out.
Now Putin holds little G-1 Summits with himself, when he needs a morale boost.
Graphic translation:
Novaya Gazeta Europe STORIES “Russia’s military failure is already obvious”
• French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjournet on Kremlin propaganda, sending troops to Ukraine and the attitude towards anti-war Russians. Interview with Novaya Europa
Interesting articles:
Ukraine Situation Report: U.K. Says Its Donated Weapons Can Be Used To Hit Targets In Russia
The United Kingdom has also pledged to Ukraine its biggest arms package of the conflict so far, worth over $3 billion a year.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/ukraine-situation-report-u-k-says-its-donated-weapons-can-be-used-to-hit-targets-in-russia
—
JDAM-ER Winged Bombs With Seekers That Home In On GPS Jammers Headed To Ukraine
Plans to give Ukraine JDAM-ERs with new seekers come as Western precision-guided munitions are reportedly suffering from Russian GPS jamming.
https://www.twz.com/air/jdam-er-winged-bombs-with-seekers-that-home-in-on-gps-jammers-headed-to-ukraine
—
Russia’s Anti-Satellite Nuke Could Leave Lower Orbit Unusable, Test Vehicle May Already Be Deployed
New info has emerged from U.S. officials about Russia’s nuclear anti-satellite weapon and a test satellite that may be associated with it.
https://www.twz.com/space/russias-anti-satellite-nuke-could-leave-lower-orbit-unusable-test-vehicle-may-already-be-deployed
Pointing to the last item I posted.
If Russia continues to push a test of this weapon in space, the test will:
“Beyond the military aspect, once again, the loss of low earth orbit would be hugely impactful to life on Earth. The economic damage that such a weapon could do is hard to even quantify.
Replacing space-based capabilities after the radiation cleared would take a very long time and LEO may be so cluttered with space junk at that point that it may not be reliably inhabitable at all for much longer than how long damaging radiation would persist.
The entire idea of this weapon is very troublesome and the use of it could set humanity back significantly for a long time.”
—
Russia would be anathema worldwide & because of the extreme damage the test of this weapon would do, it might trigger a nuclear rain on Russia.
Destroyed would be all communications satellites, no more International Space Station, all commercial space travel would be halted for decades, to name just a few lost capabilities, all to see if a weapon will work by Putin’s Russia.
Paveway IV precision-guided bombs are arriving in UKR from UK
Arriving British Storm Shadows have a range near 350 miles and no restrictions on use.
“We will give three billion pounds every year for as long as is necessary,” Cameron said. “We’ve just really emptied all we can in terms of giving equipment. Some of that [equipment] is actually arriving in Ukraine today, while I’m here.” - British Foreign Secretary David Cameron
There is little doubt in my mind that spending more now to end this conflict with Russians defeat would be far cheaper than giving just enough to keep the status quo
As always the big unknown is what putin might do, or one of his minions if defeat becomes apparent
Reporting From Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU/videos
The complete transcript.
Great news! YouTube finally investigated the issue and restored all 16 channels! First of all, let me start by acknowledging and apologizing for the experience you have had so far.
—
[ Fight For Survival! Ukrainians Prevent Encirclement! ]
—
Day 800: May 03
Today, there are a lot of updates from the Avdiivka direction.
Here, Ukrainians have successfully executed a fighting withdrawal in order to prevent their forces from being taken into a pocket.
The main objective of the Russian offensive operation to the north is to advance toward the Ukrainian city of Kostyantynivka, linking up with their offensive operation near Chasiv-Yar.
The secondary goal of this operation is to take the Ukrainian forces in New York into a pocket by cutting them off from their supply lines.
If we take a look at the topographic map, we can see that for Russians to reach Kostyantynivka from the south, they must first pass over several strategic heights, which are all under Ukrainian control.
The east most heights are the most important in this direction, as they simultaneously guard the western flank of the Ukrainian defenses in New York.
They also allow the Ukrainians to make constant flanking attacks on the Russian bridgehead and logistics to the south.
This makes the Ukrainian settlement of Novokalynove of high tactical and operational value to both Ukrainian and Russian armed forces, as it is situated at the source of the Kalynivka River, linking the two heights together.
As you may remember, Russians recently executed a large attack in this direction, capturing the eastern roads of the settlement.
This quickly became an increasingly difficult situation for the defending Ukrainian soldiers, as the Russians were threatening to take them into a pocket. Ukrainian forces realized this and started a controlled withdrawal from the settlement.
However, Russian forces intensified their attacks on the settlement in an attempt to catch the Ukrainians in their process of withdrawal.
Ukrainians shared geolocated footage of a group of 20 Russian soldiers attempting to take up positions in a manor in the northern part of the settlement. Unfortunately for Russians, this assault group was quickly spotted by a Ukrainian observation drone.
Ukrainian forces then quickly dispatched a tank to the location, which then took up position and opened fire on the occupied manor, destroying the Russian assault group inside.
Russian military bloggers stated that Ukrainians were constantly targeting such Russian assault groups with tanks and counterattacks, not allowing them to advance.
If we take a look at the topographic map, we can see that the settlement of Novokalynove is situated in the lowlands.
Consequently, a Russian blogger stated that after taking control over the eastern part of the settlement, Ukrainians used their terrain advantage on which they had established many fortifications to halt the Russian advance, stating that the situation had become very difficult for the Russian offensive.
On top of that, Ukrainian forces continued their strikes on Russian logistics, as we discussed in the last report. The Ukrainian 23rd mechanized brigade shared geolocated footage of them destroying a group of Russian infantry with artillery south of Novokalynove.
Furthermore, drone operators of the 23rd Brigade identified a gathering place for Russian infantry near a railway bridge, from where they would continue to conduct their attacks.
The drone operators then shared geolocated footage of them engaging Russian infantry at this railway bridge and then repeating these attacks as new Russian assault groups arrived at this position.
Additionally, Ukrainian sources shared footage of them finishing off a Russian armored vehicle with a Javelin anti-tank missile while another destroyed Russian vehicle is seen in the background.
Due to the strikes on Russian infantry, the Ukrainians’ use of the terrain to their advantage, and the constant Ukrainian counterattacks, Russian forces were unable to develop their breakthrough further and close the pocket around the Ukrainian defenders.
In desperation, Russian forces then resorted to bombing their way through the settlement. Russian sources released geolocated footage of them attacking Ukrainian-held positions with artillery and FAB glide bombs.
A Russian military blogger stated that such attacks were being carried out day and night to completely undermine the Ukrainian defense.
However, the Ukrainian goal of temporarily holding the Russians in place had been accomplished, and Ukrainian forces had largely withdrawn from the settlement. After Ukrainians had pulled back to the north, Russians took control over the rest of Novokalynove and started pushing into the adjacent settlement of Keramik.
A Ukrainian military blogger stated that Russians do not seem to be moving according to expectations. Russians are focusing their offensive efforts on advancing north toward Kostyantynivka, instead of pressuring the Ukrainian flanks of the defensive line to the west.
The Institute for the Study of War stated that Russians seem to be stabilizing their salient north of Avdiivka. This could cause Ukrainians to decide to withdraw from other tactical positions entirely and move to a more defensible line.
The British intelligence service recently stated that despite sustaining high losses, Russian forces are likely to continue to further target Ukrainian positions in the area.
However, the Institute for the Study of War also stated that despite Russian forces making rapid tactical gains in the area, they would likely be unable to transform these into larger, operational significant successes.
The primary reason why the Ukrainian defenses collapsed and the Russians were able to exploit their breakthrough was due to the Ukrainian shortage of artillery shells and delays in Western military aid.
While Ukrainian drones can do a lot of damage to Russian advances and logistics, they are unable to completely substitute [for] a large artillery barrage, which would turn any Russian salient into a kill zone.
Russians are also concentrating all available forces in this small region to further exploit this situation. This has already resulted in a large amount of Russian losses, which are likely to skyrocket as Western military aid reaches the front.
Overall, despite the Russians’ best efforts, Ukrainian forces successfully held off the Russian attacks in the east, allowing their forces in the south of the settlement to make a controlled withdrawal.
The effectiveness of the Ukrainian delaying operation cannot be understated, as Russian military bloggers state that the only reason that Russians were able to push through the settlement was the constant artillery and air strikes on Ukrainian positions.
Ukrainians are likely to withdraw from certain tactical positions to a more defensible line, while Western military aid will significantly improve Ukrainian defensive capabilities, allowing Ukrainians to stabilize the frontline and break the Russian offensive.
Kremlin snuff box, 04/04/24
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
Have the State Duma set their sights on Alaska?
The degree of relations (or rather conflict) between Russia and the United States continues to increase. At a recent closed meeting, Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee Andrei Kartapolov said that we need to be ready to regain the lands of Alaska that historically belonged to Russia.
The statement was received with a bang. The military officers and deputies present agreed that in the context of weakening US hegemony, Russia needs to return control over Alaska.
It is difficult to say whether other representatives of the military elite share such plans. In response to our direct question, the General Staff answered that now we clearly have no time for Alaska. After all, Ukraine is at stake. And we must first finish the SVO with a victory.
Kremlin snuff box, 04/04/24
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
There were two news about demobilization. One of them concerns the future of Shoigu
The issue of demobilization, as well as a new large-scale mobilization, continues to be actively discussed by the military and politicians. A source in the Kremlin reported two important news on this topic.
Firstly, he confirmed our information that the issue of demobilization will be presented to Vladimir Putin for consideration and approval after May 15 (or rather the 20-25th).
At approximately the same time, the President will receive proposals from the military on what a new mobilization should be like to quickly achieve the goals of the Northern Military District.
Secondly, Sergei Shoigu plans to disrupt demobilization.
“He felt strong again, for some reason he is sure that no one will fire him, and he begins to download his rights. Not only about demobilization. Let’s see if he has regained influence over the President,” our source said.
Another interlocutor in the Kremlin believes that “Sergei Kuzhugetovich is in vain confident in his bright future. Because anything can happen.”
He also complained that “our army, although heroically advancing now, cannot give Vladimir Vladimirovich a worthy gift - neither for the inauguration, nor for Victory Day.”
“Without Shoigu everything would have been more fun and faster,” the source is sure.
What F-16s will do for Ukraine (and what they won’t)
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4219673/posts?page=1598#1598
The link above contains a youtube link which, I believe, is worth watching.
The video covers HARMs employed by F-16s versus HARMs employed by Ukrainian MiGs.
It also covers F-16s with Aim-120s versus Russian Su-35s.
So, what's missing?
The video does not cover F-16s capability against cruise missiles & Shahed drones.
IMHO, this should be the first priority for the F-16s.
As we saw, none of the Iranian fired drones reached Israeli airspace because they were shot down by western aircraft.
The video doesn't cover in detail western EW systems, including IFF (Identify Friend or Foe).
F-16s & Patriot batteries should be able to employ "Rope-a-dope" strategies.
The video also does not cover F-16 air-to-ground capabilities.
F-16s with JDAM-ER and Paveway-4 munitions will have real-time targeting capabilities...enough said.
Apologies to ansel12 for my slow response and thanks for posting the youtube link.
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