Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (2 year anniversary)

ORYX ^ | Since February 24, 2022 and daily | ORYX

[blitz128]

Went to Alamo while at Air Force basic, very cool but expecting John Wayne version. Wild how the building is surrounded by the city, and so small.

Read somewhere that Alamo movie set still exists.

River walk very cool

Did some border security stuff a few years ago out of Brownsville.

Highway off/on ramps in Huston took some getting used to 😂

[PIF]

The TSMC plant will not be operational for years [ assuming its even built ] along with AAPL’s investments.

Mainland China has lots of opportunity to take Taiwan before then.

AAPL’s M-series chips are made by TSMC.

All other investments are also years out of realization.

AI power plants are also years away. Mini nuke plants are not likely to see the light of day, if ever, for years; thermonuclear power is still the pipe dream it was 70 years ago.

All of these investments will happen - if they d0 - after 47 is out of office; assuming 47’s trade war does not destroy the US economy, as some traders are saying today.

The closest to fruition is the KIA plant that was going to be built in Mexico will now be built in Tennessee, becoming operational in 2 years.

[FtrPilot]

In just a week near Kreminna and the Serebryanskyy forest, Ukrainian border guards' PHOENIX unit turned Russian equipment into scrap. Destroyed: a BTR-80, a makeshift bridge, an Msta-B howitzer, 13 military vehicles, a Mavic drone, and 2 relay stations.

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1896916066493952044

[AdmSmith]

The TSMC factory needs daily software updates and data, a constant flow of raw materials and chemicals from many countries. If China invades Taiwan, production will stop and cannot be restarted until these supply chains are restarted. That is, there will be a total stoppage of chips. It affects the economy of all countries.

[FtrPilot]

Around noon, a Russian radar station from an S-300/S-400 air defense system went up in flames on Yevpatoriyske Highway. The 96L6E all-altitude detector, worth tens of millions, was burning brightly.

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1896909151571476682

Yevpatoriya on Google Maps

Partisans?

[FtrPilot]

Ukraine repelled a large Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 99 launched, 66 were shot down and another 32 were supressed by electronic warfare.

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1896832698687345151

[PIF]

Yesterday’s scrub of SpaceX Flight 8 was caused by low pressure in a fuel pump - which low pressure could lead to engine failure or worse. Launch window still has 3 more days to run and it could launch in that time, but no firm time has been announced.

[PIF]

Under the radar, Russian troops are quietly evacuating Crimea. Many civilians are also leaving, not just military families, but whole Russian units like AD.

Russians Flee Crimea as Ukraine Takes Revenge (16 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5yahRejxpEM

[FtrPilot]

FTA: Ukraine has two ICEYE satellites at its disposal.

Desired Mean Point of Impact (DMPI).

I wondered how UKF target intel identified the GPS coordinates of the target DMPIs.

Google maps gets close but is not accurate enough to identify DMPIs.

ruzzian pumping station.

The ICEYE satellites are certainly being used for targeting.

Ukrainian drone strikes hit a pipeline & industrial warehouse in Chertkovsky, Rostov region, not an oil depot as claimed earlier, the local governor confirmed.

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1896831531026731045

[FtrPilot]

In addition to Chortkovo and Novoshakhtinsk, additional explosions were confirmed by locals near the Syzran refinery in Russia. A fire broke out. It is the third confirmed strike on an oil refinery overnight by Ukrainian drones.

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1896808879046148286

[blitz128]

Russia. GDP😎

[blitz128]

IMO, China has a better chance of destroying Taiwan, than taking it.

Crossing 100 miles of open sea will be a significant challenge. resupply even more.

Amazing how many people will die for dictators dreams of conquest.

[PIF]

Useful background on the fight between nation-states and civilizational-states

or

The Russian/Chinese/Turkish outlook on nations.

Turkey Gave Russia a Devastating Blow - Get Out of Crimea! 18 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASXsukOomyY

[FtrPilot]

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed the targeting of several important facilities of the Russian occupiers:

- The receiving and delivery station of the "Kuybyshev-Lysychansk" main oil pipeline in Chertkovo, Rostov region;
- The line production management of main gas pipelines in the area of Sokhranovka, Rostov region;
- The oil refinery in Novoshakhtinsk, Rostov region;
- The oil refinery in Syzran, Samara region;
- The fuel and lubricants storage base in Rovenky, Luhansk region.

It was a productive night.

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1896919853778260010

[BroJoeK]

PIF: "The TSMC plant will not be operational for years [ assuming its even built ] along with AAPL’s investments.
Mainland China has lots of opportunity to take Taiwan before then."

$380 million ASML High-NA EUV:

We'll see.
2027 is often cited as the beginning of CCP China's "window of opportunity" to invade Taiwan, with window closing dates in the early 2030s.
That does still allow some time for adjustments and preparations.
Nobody can pretend we weren't warned.

My view is that the China threat is likely overstated, for the perfectly valid reason that overstating such threats is vastly better than underestimating them.
No country in history was ever destroyed by being too prepared for an expected attack, unless that left them more vulnerable to the unexpected.

PIF: "AI power plants are also years away.
Mini nuke plants are not likely to see the light of day, if ever, for years; thermonuclear power is still the pipe dream it was 70 years ago."

Small Modular Reactor (SMR) mockup:

The US is currently adding circa 70 GW of new electricity generation capacity per year, primarily from solar, wind, natural gas, nuclear and also increased utility grade battery storage (BESS), a relatively inexpensive way to increase capacity by storing energy produced in low demand times for release during peak demand periods.
That 70 GW number needs to double to circa 140 GW of new capacity each year in order to double total US capacity in 10 years.
Right now, I don't see that happening, though for certain, both Pres. Trump and people like Elon Musk well know what's needed.
Among the potential sources for renewable energy are new geothermal technologies which don't require super-hot temperatures to run.

What exactly is the main problem with Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) I don't understand, but my impression is that if their issues are resolved, then production of new reactors could scale up very quickly.

Steamboat Hills, Geothermal power generation, Reno, Nevada:

[JonPreston]

BobL: "It’s not a bad story from USAID-funded Axios, but the above has been TOTALLY DISCREDITED as it was since proven that the ‘obscure ultranationalist candidate’ was the one who funded the TikTok campaign, not those EVIL Russians."

Romanian investigators put the total value of Calin Georgescu's November 2024 campaign at EUR 50 million (~$52 million).
So, 50 million in political campaign terms may not sound like so much, but, if you adjust for Romania's smaller population and GDP, 50 million there is roughly equivalent to $1.7 billion in the US.

Investigations also revealed that the sources of Georgescu's campaign funds included:

1. Self-financed through Georgescu's media company Marker&Senzzo Media.

2. TikTok support from the pro-EU National Liberal Party (PNL) which apparently hoped that Georgescu would act as a spoiler, drawing votes from the PNL's rival parties.

3. Romanian entrepreneur named Bogdan Peschir, who says he does not know Georgescu personally, but supported change in Romania.

4. Russian influencers -- over 100 paid Russian influencers with combined 8 million followers swung their support to Georgescu.

From all the reports, it appears to me that while those 100 Russian influencers may have been paid less than the others, they had the most effective results in swinging votes to Georgescu.

Pro-Russian influencers can seem to have outsized effects on public opinion, even right here, on Free Republic.

Calin Georgescu is described as independent, pro-Russia, anti-NATO, populist Orthodox Christian and ultra-nationalist.

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• Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (2 year anniversary)

  02/16/2025 7:31:42 AM PST · 12,038 of 12,775
  BroJoeK to PIF; FtrPilot; BeauBo; gleeaikin; blitz128; Monterrosa-24

  Mini-me Medvedev:

  🍈 quoting: "KREMLIN TO ZELENSKY: YOU ARE A CLOWN TO INSULT TRUMP - BITING THE HAND THAT FEEDS YOU"

  "Dmitry Medvedev @MedvedevRussiaE:
  The Kiev clown chastised Trump for everything possible.
  That is, the washed-up beggar & thief spat into the giver's hand.
  The question is, how will Trump react?"

  pic.twitter.com/QCn9RrfWUx— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) February 15, 2025"

  Mario Nawfal is Arab-Australian living in Dubai.

  Mini-me Medvedev is a Putin puppet spouting the worst of Russian propaganda.

  Mini-me Medvedev with Obama and map of Russia's goals in Ukraine:
  

  The answer is: Trump will ignore Russian propagandists and discuss his concerns with Zelensky directly.
  Zelensky may or may not agree to Trump's terms.
  My guess is, it won't matter.

  Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11992 | View Replies

• Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (2 year anniversary)

  02/16/2025 6:10:30 AM PST · 12,032 of 12,775
  BroJoeK to blitz128; PIF; FtrPilot; BeauBo; gleeaikin; Monterrosa-24

  🍈 : "Trump agreed with Putin that NATO expansion is at the heart of the war"

  Trump & team have said a lot of nice things to get Putin to the negotiating table.
  Time will tell which words mattered and which were irrelevant.

  blitz128: "NATO expansion is the reason for Putin’s invasion, he knew his pathetic military could never challenge NATO.
  If Ukraine joined NATO his dreams of an expanded Russia were over."

  Sure, "NATO expansion" and "de-Nazification" are the excuses Putin's propaganda machine published.
  But in reality, nothing in regard to either had changed in 2021 or early 2022.

  What changed was Putin's perceptions of Western weakness, especially after Biden's disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan.
  Putin saw that as his opportunity to make his moves into Ukraine.

  The real reasons for Putin's 2022 invasions are the same as his 2014 invasion and previous invasions of Georgia and elsewhere.
  They include:

  1. April 25, 2005, Putin's annual state of the nation address: "'First and foremost it is worth acknowledging that the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,' Putin said.
     'As for the Russian people, it became a genuine tragedy.
     Tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory.
     The epidemic of collapse has spilled over to Russia itself,' he said, referring to separatist movements such as those in Chechnya.".

  2. Revanchist claims on historical Russian territories such as "Novorossiya".

  3. Personal revenge against Ukraine Pres. Zelensky for:
     "Kremlin reporter Ilya Zhegulev wrote that loyal Putin ally Viktor Medvedchuk is at the center of the Russian leader's so-called "special military operation" in the neighboring country, and that he had already decided to attack Kyiv in February-March 2021.

     2017 Putin & Medvedchuk:

     Medvedchuk is a pro-Kremlin Ukrainian oligarch who was released by Kyiv in a prisoner swap with Russia in September 2022.
     The 68-year-old has close ties with Putin, who is believed to be the godfather of his youngest daughter.
     Medvedchuk was the former leader of a pro-Russian opposition party in Ukraine, and was detained in April 2022 by Ukraine's state security service, the SBU, after he fled house arrest while awaiting trial on treason charges.
     Kyiv has stripped him of his Ukrainian citizenship."

     "In 2021, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree sanctioning three television stations affiliated with Medvedchuk, stopping them from broadcasting.
     For Putin, this was "the final straw," Verstka wrote...
     ...Three sources close to Putin confirmed that these developments were the final straw in Putin's decision to prepare to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
     "The Kremlin decided not to resort to the tools of 'soft power' anymore."

  4. "Russkiy Mir" semi-religious ideology promoted by "Putin's Brain" Alexander Dugin, Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill, Putin himself and his mini-me Medvedev.

  5. Restoring the old Tsarist/Soviet Empires while building a new Axis of Evil Dictators to oppose Western-style democracies:

  Bottom line: NATO and "deNazification" were Putin's propaganda excuses, not the real reasons.
  
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• Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (2 year anniversary)

  02/15/2025 9:40:36 AM PST · 12,001 of 12,775
  BroJoeK to BeauBo

  quoting BJK: “as best I can figure now, Russia is running circ 15% of GDP on its military”

  BeauBo: "I assume that you are including the forced debt that banks have been providing to Russian Defense firms."

  No, my 15% of GDP number comes from the following:

  1. 40% -- Russia's government spends 40% of Russia's GDP.

  2. X 40% -- of Russia's national budget is its defense spending.

  3. 40% times 40% is 16% which I rounded down to 15%.

  All of these numbers are guess-work, and they suggest that while Russia devotes five times more of its economy to defense than the US does, still 15% of GDP to the military is not what countries fighting for their lives can do, for examples:

  • 40% of GDP was the peak US military spending during WWII.

  • 40% of GDP is the current estimate of Ukrainian military spending.

  • 60% to 70% of GDP are estimates of WWII powers like Germany, Britain, Japan and the Soviet Union.

  My only point here is that while Russians are devoting far more of their resources to national defense than we do, they are still far from levels seen during WWII.
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• Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (2 year anniversary)

  02/15/2025 9:23:37 AM PST · 11,999 of 12,775
  BroJoeK to blitz128

  2023, Pres. Obama with Alexander Soros:

  🍈 : "Each one of these creatures is an unabashed supporter of war with Russia rather than the peace Trump wants
  These are your people"

  Wanting and doing are not yet the same things.

  In the meantime, US aid to Ukraine continues as planned and Russian casualties are currently running about 80% of what they had been last fall.
  So, the war is not over.

  As for young Alexander Soros, he has supported Ukraine with nearly a quarter of a billion dollars in the past decade.

  So have many others, thank God, including Pres. Trump, who sent Ukraine $3 billion during the years 2018 through 2021, 2/3 of that being lethal military equipment.

  

  These are 🍈 's people:

  Russians' destruction of Bakhmut, Ukrainian civilians killed at Bucha:
  

  Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11928 | View Replies

• Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (2 year anniversary)

  02/15/2025 7:41:21 AM PST · 11,982 of 12,775
  BroJoeK to PIF; FtrPilot

  "There are only 2 ways that UKR can be guaranteed peace from Russian aggression: by Russian military defeat or by Russia disarming its military.
  The first is more likely than the later.
  The later would also require someone like B. Yeltsin to take over from Putin."

  Actually, there's a third way -- the cease fire agreement should clearly spell out that any future Russian aggressions will result in automatic immediate Ukrainian NATO membership.

  Problem solved!

  Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11926 | View Replies

[JonPreston]

[PIF]

Kremlin snack, 03/04/25
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets

Trump recognized the greatness and power of Putin. Perhaps "this is the best that he has done so far"

So a number of our sources in the Kremlin took the latest decisions of the American President, including the suspension of military assistance to the Kiev regime [ https://t.me/bbbreaking/201498 ].

“Many people think that Trump was scared, some hot heads generally call him our agent. This is all nonsense. Trump simply recognized Vladimir Vladimirovich as a great and strong politician. Perhaps this is the best that he has done after returning to the White House. And we, of course, welcome such actions,” said a senior source in the Kremlin.

According to another, not to recognize the greatness and power of our President "would be stupidity."

“Now we are waiting for Trump to admit that Russia is a world player of the US level. We understand that the level is higher, but so far it will be enough to publicly recognize equality. It is clear that Trump is looking for friendship with Vladimir Vladimirovich. Our President is also not against such friendship. And even ready to share with the Americans resources for the sake of victories in the future [ https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/5365 ]. I hope this friendship will eventually become strong,” our interlocutor said.

“I told you that we are a bump of Trump ( such a statement was made in November last year, - Ed. [ https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4925 ] ). And Trump will bent the Kyiv regime. As you can see, the process went. I love when my forecasts are confirmed,” another source in the Kremlin commented on what was happening.

Well, we hope, positive forecasts will continue to come true.

[gleeaikin]

The Falkland Island action between UK and Argentina showed the vulnerability of ships to missiles. Decades late r the drone revolution has increased such risks to seapower. Ukraine’s SeaBaby drone system has driving Russia from the Black and Azov Seas. How many drones does Taiwan now have, are they making many, and I imagine they are getting some from others. Chinese ships will not have a fun sea voyage. Then there is nature. Remember the Spanish Armada failure.

[PIF]

Remember the Spanish Armada failure.

—
More apt - remember the “Divine Winds”. Which sunk the mongol invasion fleet sailing against Japan in the 13th century.