Posted on 02/20/2024 9:27:11 PM PST by SeekAndFind
One can hardly deny that China has become more bellicose over the last few years. It's also impossible to deny that China still, after all this time, views Taiwan as a breakaway, rogue province and would like nothing more than to take it back and place it under Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule. But China has some very troubling problems of its own: An economy in trouble, a population that's dropping off a demographic cliff, and a corrupt, totalitarian government.
That doesn't mean that they might not, at some point, try to take Taiwan anyway. On Monday, in the Asia Times, the scribe Gabriel Honrada walks us through some of China's issues.
In estimating China’s possible timeframe for a Taiwan conflict, Timothy Heath and other writers note in a June 2023 RAND analysis that Taiwan is most vulnerable to defeat in the first 90 days of a Chinese invasion.
Heath and others mention that due to Taiwan’s military disadvantages and low durability, a US intervention would be required to repel a Chinese invasion within that timeframe. Without a US intervention, they note that China’s overwhelming military resources would likely allow it to subjugate the self-governing island Beijing considers a renegade province.
There's another way to read that: "If China can't take Taiwan in 90 days, they're in trouble." But can China cross that strait with enough troops to take Taiwan in the first place? And more to the point, can they keep those troops supplied with beans, bullets, and fuel? In military matters, amateurs study tactics, while professionals study logistics; wars are always won or lost because of logistics.
And China might not be able to pull that off.
Asia Times noted in October 2023 that, at the minimum, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) might need to land 300,000 to 400,000 troops in Taiwan to quickly seize the island, following swift and sharp air and missile decapitation strikes that aim to take out Taiwan’s civilian and military leadership.
But should that fail, the PLA may have to send as many as 2 million troops to Taiwan, including police and paramilitary personnel, to ensure a three-to-one or five-to-one numerical superiority against the defender.
A three-to-one advantage is pretty much the minimum numeric advantage for an attacking force taking on a prepared defense. Add to that the difficulty of crossing all of those people, all their equipment, all their vehicles, across the strait and then keeping them supplied.
That's a major challenge, even for a country with China's resources. And China has certainly been watching the ongoing Russia/Ukraine conflict with great interest, as Russia is invading a country with which they share a long land border, and despite a considerable material advantage, has managed at best a stalemate, at most a high-tech war of attrition that will devour lives on both sides like a nightjar gulping down mosquitoes.
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But wait! There's more!
Task and Purpose, in a video this month, notes that as the PLA modernizes its equipment, it will need highly educated, technologically savvy personnel to operate it.
However, it mentions Chinese cultural views of the military as a lowly career, high emigration from China, increasing physical and psychological conditions among potential recruits, corruption in the PLA, the long-term impact of the One Child Policy and the perceived hardships of military life over a lucrative civilian career all contribute to China’s military manpower shortage.
However (there's always a, however, isn't there?) China has been building its navy aggressively for some time. At present, the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (that's really what it's called) can't really project power globally, mostly due to the lack of at-sea replenishment, but they certainly can use their frigate navy to support an invasion of Taiwan.
So, yes, China may be able to take Taiwan. It will be costly, horrendously so, to both sides, but they could likely do it. And if I were in Taiwan's government, I would be very concerned about the United States' promises to come to Taiwan's aid, especially under the current feckless, directionless leadership. Taiwan would be well advised to make its defense plans based on standing alone because, in such matters, it's wise to plan for the worst and hope for the best.
But keeping Taiwan? While Taiwan has no Second Amendment and no centuries-old tradition of defiance like the United States, there would still very likely be a resistance movement against the Communist invaders that would go on for generations.
So, can China take Taiwan? Probably, at a considerable cost. Can they keep Taiwan? That's much less clear.
Related:
I respectfully disagree. China is in no condition to fight a war like that.
Do they wish to take over the economies of the world? Yup. But they remain in a precarious situation right now. Their internal economy is in rough shape. Demographically, they are aging and cancer ridden. Their population is set to decline to under a billion people.
They depend on too many resources from outside. They get about 80% of their fuel imported through the straits, and through two pipelines from Russia. They are mining Africa and Central Asia into oblivion.
They are much more likely to try to grab resources in Russia before they go after the chip makers in Taiwan.
Taiwan is a strategic point for China as they would be able to control the sea lanes in the China Sea. But, right now that is not as critical as their resource constraints.
People thinking they are going to destroy Taiwan, engage the US, and have their economy destroyed are playing some kind of Call of Duty Fantasy game. Wars are won with logistics and the pieces are not lining up for them now-and they won’t for years to come.
China doesn't have to invade Taiwan to exert control over it. That could be done with military blockade or by exerting other economic pressures on it.
Taiwan has no chance against China in military conflict. And, we certainly shouldn't seek out a bloody war with China in its own backyard. It would be insanity for us to get involved directly.
That and bombard it until it’s a pile of dust. To stop these attacks Taiwan or the US and it’s allies would have to hit targets in China proper which I am sure will result in a response on the US mainland. How far are we willing to go to defend Taiwan? Under BiteMe, not far...
“I respectfully disagree. China is in no condition to fight a war like that.”
I respectfully agree!
But just because they are in no condition to fight a war of conquest against any overseas neighbor doesn’t mean they won’t do it anyway.
Just like we are seeing in the Russian war to conquer Ukraine the Russians were ill prepared and dreadfully overconfident of their abilities.
Why?
Because decades of authoritarianism has conditioned their people not to give their leadership actionable negative information. People who tell Putin or Xi a truth that is not what Putin or Xi want to hear risk being denounced as counter-revolutionary, defeatist, traitors, and etc.
It’s easier to tell them what they want to hear.
“Yes, Tsar Putin! We can esily defeat Ukraine in ten days!”
“Yes, Chairman Xi! We can easily defeat Taiwan in ten days!”
The ability of Russia or China to win a war does not at all factor into the political decision to go to war.
But I will say that China is better postured to win a land war than an amphibious war. Hopefully China turns its eyes north to reconquer Siberia while leaving Taiwan alone.
I dont think its possible to bombard Taiwan like that. China doesnt have the aircraft for a proper crushing air campaign.
And missiles wont do it. Too few. For proper city destruction it has to be iron bombs.
I agree with a lot of that.
But Xi is smarter than Putin.
Putin is a brawler. Xi will slice you with a razor.
“ Were they to even attempt it their society would collapse and the CCP would be either drastically altered or eliminated.”
I’m glad other people see this as well.
“ They have no experienced military, the PLA moral is low, all foreign ventures have ended in a humiliating failure.”
The PLA defeated people camped out in a public square in 1989.
That’s their victory.
And they had to use soldiers from way out in the boonies.
“ Taiwan IS China. The US recognizes that.”
Not true.
US pretends to recognize that for the sake of dealing with China.
And presumably to keep China from attacking Taiwan.
US has never recognized PRC sovereignty over Taiwan. Which is because that’s true.
Japan had sovereignty over Taiwan which it relinquished in 1952 as per the San Francisco Peace Treaty of 1951.
That’s where it stands now.
Japan surrendered to ROC/KMT Chiang Kai-Shek under General order 1 in 1945.
The Allies occupied it as a surrendered Japanese territory. That’s essentially what it still is, although it’s become a defacto nation.
“ This is Austria 1938, not Poland 1939.”
It’s neither.
The PLA defeated people camped out in a public square in 1989. That’s their victory. And they had to use soldiers from way out in the boonies.
—
They also defeated thousands of others: apartment dwellers, reporters, passers by, people on the way home from work, bus riders, medics, local militia troops, police, etc.
Out in the boonies - they were mountain troops - you get no further out than that for boonies in China.
“ I agree 100%. Most of the folks on Taiwan have family in China. They visit each other all the time.
China is not going to destroy the infrastructure there just to make a point.”
That’s not really true. Taiwan is like the US, settled over a couple hundred years in the 1600’s to 1800’s’s were a big influx and had family back in China. But it was 40 years or so before any contact could be made with family back in China and China went crazy over those years.
A lot of family visits did take place back in the late 80’s 90’s.
It’s a pretty small percentage maintain close ties with any family in China.
I’m beginning to think Xi is kind of crazy.
Yep.
Long live the people’s army.
He is not crazy. Just a committed commie of the Chinese variety.
Any decent board wargame will have those kind of odds. When you get to 6-1 odds victory is all but guaranteed.
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