Posted on 02/20/2024 9:27:11 PM PST by SeekAndFind
One can hardly deny that China has become more bellicose over the last few years. It's also impossible to deny that China still, after all this time, views Taiwan as a breakaway, rogue province and would like nothing more than to take it back and place it under Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule. But China has some very troubling problems of its own: An economy in trouble, a population that's dropping off a demographic cliff, and a corrupt, totalitarian government.
That doesn't mean that they might not, at some point, try to take Taiwan anyway. On Monday, in the Asia Times, the scribe Gabriel Honrada walks us through some of China's issues.
In estimating China’s possible timeframe for a Taiwan conflict, Timothy Heath and other writers note in a June 2023 RAND analysis that Taiwan is most vulnerable to defeat in the first 90 days of a Chinese invasion.
Heath and others mention that due to Taiwan’s military disadvantages and low durability, a US intervention would be required to repel a Chinese invasion within that timeframe. Without a US intervention, they note that China’s overwhelming military resources would likely allow it to subjugate the self-governing island Beijing considers a renegade province.
There's another way to read that: "If China can't take Taiwan in 90 days, they're in trouble." But can China cross that strait with enough troops to take Taiwan in the first place? And more to the point, can they keep those troops supplied with beans, bullets, and fuel? In military matters, amateurs study tactics, while professionals study logistics; wars are always won or lost because of logistics.
And China might not be able to pull that off.
Asia Times noted in October 2023 that, at the minimum, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) might need to land 300,000 to 400,000 troops in Taiwan to quickly seize the island, following swift and sharp air and missile decapitation strikes that aim to take out Taiwan’s civilian and military leadership.
But should that fail, the PLA may have to send as many as 2 million troops to Taiwan, including police and paramilitary personnel, to ensure a three-to-one or five-to-one numerical superiority against the defender.
A three-to-one advantage is pretty much the minimum numeric advantage for an attacking force taking on a prepared defense. Add to that the difficulty of crossing all of those people, all their equipment, all their vehicles, across the strait and then keeping them supplied.
That's a major challenge, even for a country with China's resources. And China has certainly been watching the ongoing Russia/Ukraine conflict with great interest, as Russia is invading a country with which they share a long land border, and despite a considerable material advantage, has managed at best a stalemate, at most a high-tech war of attrition that will devour lives on both sides like a nightjar gulping down mosquitoes.
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But wait! There's more!
Task and Purpose, in a video this month, notes that as the PLA modernizes its equipment, it will need highly educated, technologically savvy personnel to operate it.
However, it mentions Chinese cultural views of the military as a lowly career, high emigration from China, increasing physical and psychological conditions among potential recruits, corruption in the PLA, the long-term impact of the One Child Policy and the perceived hardships of military life over a lucrative civilian career all contribute to China’s military manpower shortage.
However (there's always a, however, isn't there?) China has been building its navy aggressively for some time. At present, the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (that's really what it's called) can't really project power globally, mostly due to the lack of at-sea replenishment, but they certainly can use their frigate navy to support an invasion of Taiwan.
So, yes, China may be able to take Taiwan. It will be costly, horrendously so, to both sides, but they could likely do it. And if I were in Taiwan's government, I would be very concerned about the United States' promises to come to Taiwan's aid, especially under the current feckless, directionless leadership. Taiwan would be well advised to make its defense plans based on standing alone because, in such matters, it's wise to plan for the worst and hope for the best.
But keeping Taiwan? While Taiwan has no Second Amendment and no centuries-old tradition of defiance like the United States, there would still very likely be a resistance movement against the Communist invaders that would go on for generations.
So, can China take Taiwan? Probably, at a considerable cost. Can they keep Taiwan? That's much less clear.
Related:
Given cultural and familia ties, along with fifth columnists, would Taiwan really resist?
In before all the Yuan will be replacing the dollar and the end the US empire to be replaced by a population several times ours that can’t produce state of the art anything but renewables.
Taiwan is not a country. It’s part of the “one china” us policy. Neither does the US support it’s independence. It’s right there in the US State Department’s website. All we are doing is stirring up trouble like we do everywhere.
Taiwan has always been willing to buy US military equipment.
Trump sold it to them.
Most others didn’t or limited it.
90 miles across open deep ocean is not crossing the English Channel.
It’d be target practice.
“ Given cultural and familia ties, along with fifth columnists, would Taiwan really resist?”
They’d have just given in by now if your supposition were true.
You’re a liar.
Landing on Taiwan in an amphibious assault is going to be extremely difficult, if not impossible. Taiwan has lots of artillery and limited viable beaches.
Its much more likely that China will blockade it until Taiwan gives in.
When Red China takes over Taiwan, they will arrive at the airport, walk down the stairs to a red carpet, and be met by a delegation.
They will do it like they did Hong Kong. And it’s still a generation out. That generation of Taiwan will have witnessed our implosion into socialism and bankruptcy, know we are weak, and cut more and more trade deals... then it’s inevitable.
But the DC fever swamp keeps imagining a D-Day invasion. It’s like they have no clue about Chinese thinking.
The initial offensive against Taiwan will not be a cross-channel amphibious assault. That is a fantasy of last-war western military “experts.”
What I said - landing on Taiwan is not going to be easy. But that is part of most official and unofficial scenarios. As also the one posted here.
Thats why I said the more likely strategy is a blockade.
You wish.
No idiot, I do NOT wish. But no amphibious assault or Red Dawn is coming. China is famous for long term planning and subterfuge.
They already own half of the US Government as Biden, Swalwell, Feinstein, Brian Kemp, Harvard, General Milley etc have all famously proven.
We are utterly bankrupt as a nation and not just morally. We carry more debt that any recorded in human history. They wait another few years for the destruction to be complete. In the meantime, they start bribing and cultivating Taiwanese leaders. It’s called “elite capture” and they are very good at it.
Despite the pleadings of Lockheed Martin and Raytheon and their neocon Senators, they aren’t on the verge of going to war.
Chicoms built all sorts of missiles.
Have shot them around and over Taiwan in the past.
But Taiwan has a lot of missiles, too.
Zhongnangai hit and Three Gorges
China’s in a civil war. No one except CCP care about Taiwan and CCP don’t really either.
They are acting crazy now, though, as they’re losing their hold.
I’m glad you don’t wish it.
I’m think if anything similar to your scenario happens it would be China goes back to being ROC.
They’re fed up with commies idiotic rule.
And THAT is another possibility. Not that China will become ROC, though THAT would be my dream...but that some civil unrest in China could grow and spread rapidly. If China falls apart internally, that might give Taiwan some breathing room. Of course, a time like that is when Argentina moved on the Falklands.
And unrest in China is very real and just below the surface. The Wuhan and Hong Kong protests of summer/fall of 2019 were spreading and getting out of control very quickly. And THAT is when they released covid for the perfect excuse to lock down the entire country without going full Tiennamen Square again.
It’s bubbling just below the surface.
If PRC implodes and Taiwan is right there being successful as an example, who knows? Interesting, not many people imagine ROC taking charge again... but these are weird times.
With China’s lack of recent military experience on a large sale, a successful military invasion of Taiwan is implausible. Most likely, China aims at using threats and intimidation short of invasion to undermine Taiwan’s economy, morale, political cohesion, and US support so as to extract a surrender. Yet that too is implausible due to China’s economic and demographic problems.
Unlike Pearl Harbor and Ukraine we should help set a trap for them.
Yes, it is weird times.
Perhaps, but China is nuclear armed and powerful enough to be dangerous. I would prefer a slow, organic decline for the CCP version of the Middle Kingdom.
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