Posted on 02/13/2024 7:01:23 AM PST by Kaiser8408a
Gimme (cheap) shelter!
As soon as Joe Biden started bragging on his low-energy campaign trail about inflation declining I knew it would go up. And it is increasing again.
Expectations were for a big drop in the YoY consumer price index (from +3.4% to +2.9%) but instead it surprised to the upside (just as we warned) with a +3.1% YoY print for headline CPI (spoiling the sub-3% partiers). Consumer prices rose 0.3% MoM (more than the 0.2% exp) but the headline did decline from +3.4% to +3.1% YoY…
immeSource: Bloomberg
Core CPI fell below 4.00% YoY for the first time since May 2021, but the +3.86% YoY print was hitter than the 3.7% exp (with prices rising 0.4% MoM – the biggest jump since April 2023)…
Source: Bloomberg
CPI Core: The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in January.
The shelter index increased 0.6 percent in January, and was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy. The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.6 percent over the month, while the index for rent increased 0.4 percent.
Core Service inflation picked up MoM…
..and accelerated YoY
And one step deeper – the so-called SuperCore: Core CPI Services Ex-Shelter index – soared 0.7% MoM (the biggest jump since Sept 2022…
… driving the YoY change up to +4.4% – the hottest since May 2023….
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as a reminder, lower inflation does not mean lower prices.
Source: Bloomberg
The actual index of consumer prices hit a new record high this month – and is up over 18% since President Biden’s term began (it was up 8% over President Trump’s full four year term).
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
Young folk must HATE Biden. Biden promised student loan forgiveness and lead them to believe that homes would be affordable for a long time to come.
And they got nothing on their loans...and the mortgage rate tripled.
Not sure who they are going to vote for. I am pretty sure it ain’t Biden.
It’s interesting that real estate prices and rents are starting to soften in a lot of areas already. It will take a while to filter into CPI data, though, because of the reporting lags. Probably starts to help the CPI data before the election, though.
It ALWAYS amazes me that these so-called Know It Alls are constantly "surprised" by facts the casual observers see clearly.
You can expect that the figures were intensely "massaged" bu Deep State stooges to help the dems. Expect these figure to be [very] quietly revised upward at sometime in the future.
Right. There are so many moving parts to inflation though. Energy has come way down, but that never lasts. OPEC will jerk the chain again and the USA is already producing all it can (since it’s election season). If Biden is reelected, he will make sure energy prices rise. Energy prices affect almost everything due to shipping costs. Insurance companies are just starting to catch up with the cost of reconstruction and if material prices rise so will insurance costs, can’t help that.
Jimmy Carter revisted.
Oh, and it came where I expected, not higher than expected. Higher for longer still in place. There is ZERO reason to lower rates, which would start a Carter-style disaster.
At least US domestic energy production keeps hitting new all-time records. That’s good to see. Need to repeal the Jones Act.
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