Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

ORYX ^ | Since February 24, 2022 and daily | ORYX

[SpeedyInTexas]

This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned. Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. Similarly, some of the captured equipment might be destroyed if it can't be recovered. When a vehicle is captured and then lost in service with its new owners, it is only added as a loss of the original operator to avoid double listings. When the origin of a piece of equipment can't be established, it's not included in the list. The Soviet flag is used when the equipment in question was produced prior to 1991. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available.

[BeauBo]

Newsweek reports: Satellite Photos Hint at Russia’s Higher-Than-Reported Artillery Losses
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/satellite-photos-hint-at-russias-higher-than-reported-artillery-losses/ar-BB1hRpQf

“Russia has removed around half of its artillery from its storage bases since the start of the invasion of Ukraine. This suggests a high rate of attrition of its equipment, according to satellite imagery cited by open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts...

...As of Tuesday, Russia had lost 666 pieces of Self-Propelled Artillery (SPG) and 340 pieces of Towed Artillery (SA), according to Oryx. The website tracks losses using photo or video evidence, albeit with the caveat that the amount of equipment destroyed is “significantly higher.”...

...However, data from the OSINT analysts High_Marsed and Covert Cabal, posted on X, formerly Twitter, showed that Moscow’s forces have been drawing on large numbers of both forms of equipment from its stocks, due to high losses and barrel wear.

The analysts’ tally posted on February 3 found that, before the war, Russia had 4,450 SPGs in storage at its most-important bases, but this has dwindled by 1,489 to 2,961. Their estimate of towed artillery had declined from 14,631 before the invasion to 6,786, a decrease of 7,845.

The post on X said the analysts had confidence in the accuracy of the prewar count and the numbers of SPGs, but towed artillery was harder to identify, so the numbers might change in the future. Plus, lower-resolution satellite imagery was used for several bases, which required some degree of guess work.

“I think we can conclude that there is a high rate of attrition, which could be caused by high losses, but barrel wear is probably also very important,” High Marsed told Newsweek.

“Russia fires a lot of shells, so they need a lot of replacement barrels, but many of the systems are not in production anymore. I think it is also worth noting that they have taken the more-capable towed artillery first, like the 2A65 (howitzer) and 2A36 (field gun),” High Marsed added.

“A part of the remaining stock is made up of some very old guns like the M-30, which was already used in World War II, but also the MT-12, which is theoretically an anti-tank gun and not artillery, and the M-46 with a 130mm caliber that is not actively used by Russia.”

High_Marsed said that Russia is cannibalizing some of their SPG stocks, although it is difficult to estimate accurately the extent of this. “It is reasonable to say that the war is draining the storage bases, but I have no idea how long it will take until they are empty or until we see effects on the front line.””

[ETCM]

SCALP missiles glide effortlessly over a field of Russia's most advanced S-400/S-300 air defense systems on the way to strike Belbek air base in Crimea.

That's some sales video for S-300/S-400. Maybe the excellent mission planning I was giving Ukraine credit for is just ineffective Russian air defense. The video starts with a missile launch, then 2 cruise missiles flying over. Even MANPADS should have been able to take them down. Stormshadow/SCALP flying over flat open land like this should be a fairly easy target.

It was about 11 seconds from the time air defense fired to the first missile flying over. With Stormshadow flying a little under 1000 Km/h, the missile was about 3km away when the battery fired. A little close for a vertically launched missile.

[BeauBo]

“That’s some sales video for S-300/S-400.”

Former customers are no longer willing to pony up even perishable bananas for that Russian crap.

(Reuters) - Russia has begun buying bananas from India and will boost such imports, its food safety watchdog said on Tuesday, after a spat with its biggest supplier Ecuador over the latter’s decision to swap Russian-made military hardware with the United States...

...The suspensions came after Moscow condemned a pact under which Ecuador will hand over Russian-made military hardware, dubbed by Ecuador as “Ukrainian and Russian scrap metal,” to the United States in exchange for advanced U.S. equipment worth $200 million.

The United States has said the arms from Ecuador would help Ukraine bolster its forces on the battlefield against Russia.”

[PIF]

47-52 F-16 when all is in place - sounds good.

[BeauBo]

Putin did this!

Latvia reintroduces conscription to deter Russia from invading Europe.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/latvia-reintroduces-conscription-to-deter-russia-from-invading-europe/ar-BB1hRiI6

“NATO member Latvia has re-introduced conscription to deter Russia from invading Europe, the country’s foreign minister told The Telegraph.

Compulsory service came into effect at the start of January, just weeks in advance of the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine...

...All male citizens aged 18 to 27 will be required to complete a year of service, including those living abroad...

...Earlier this month, Latvia and its Baltic neighbours, fellow Nato members Estonia and Lithuania, agreed a deal to create a “common defence line” along their borders with Russia and Belarus.

Exact details are still being negotiated, but the agreement will see hundreds of bunkers and other defensive installations built along the frontier...

...Latvia had abolished mandatory service in 2006, two years after joining Nato, only to reverse course on that decision last year.

Neighbouring Lithuania reinstated conscription in 2015 after a seven-year hiatus, provoked by Russia’s annexation of Crimea, while the draft has been continuous in Estonia...

...Latvia plans to increase its defence budget to 3 per cent of GDP by 2027, up from 2.4 per cent this year, and has been steadily building out its military capabilities with deals to purchase air defence and rocket systems from Germany and the US, all while supporting Kyiv’s forces with weapons and training.”

[BeauBo]

If Sweden drops their investigation into NordStream, they will reportedly turn over their evidence to German investigators.

https://easternherald.com/2024/02/06/sweden-ends-nord-stream-explosion-investigation/

“he Stockholm prosecutor’s office plans to announce the termination of the investigation into the explosions on the Nord Stream pipelines that occurred in September 2022. This was reported by the German Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ), NDR, WDR, and Zeit.

The announcement is expected to be made by prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist.”

SZ notes that on Monday, he told the newspaper Expressen about an upcoming “new development” in the investigation, but it is unclear what this entails.

German media write that the decision to stop the investigation may be related to Sweden’s failure to find specific suspects within the kingdom.

However, for the investigation being conducted by Germany, this could be useful, as Stockholm will hand over the collected materials to Berlin. German authorities have confirmed that they continue the investigation.

According to SZ, the German police and prosecutor’s office need parts of the destroyed pipes that the Swedish side removed from the scene.

Traces of explosives from the pipes will be compared with those found on the yacht “Andromeda”. According to one version, it was used in the crime scheme.

The fact that this yacht was used to transport explosives to the site of the explosion – near the Danish island of Bornholm – was reported by Zeit, ARD, and several other Western media.

According to their information, the yacht was rented by a group of six Ukrainians. Poland, which is also investigating the incident, called them tourists.”

[BeauBo]

Information control in Russia intensifies.

BBC reports: ‘Russia’s Google’ (Yandex) owner pulls out of home country

https://www.msn.com/en-my/news/world/russia-s-google-owner-pulls-out-of-home-country/ar-BB1hPS1g

“Its Dutch-based parent company sold the operation in Russia for 475 billion roubles ($5.2bn; £4.2bn), much lower than its estimated market value.

The sale to a consortium of investors means Yandex’s Russian business is now a fully Russian-owned (i.e, Putin crony) entity .

The firm has previously been accused of hiding information about the war in Ukraine from the Russian public.

Moscow has welcomed the latest deal which the company said was “the product of an extensive period of planning and negotiation over more than 18 months”...

...Set up in the dotcom boom in the late 1990s, Yandex developed its own search engine, mapping and advertising businesses. Other services include taxis and food delivery.

The $5.2bn deal is believed to be significantly lower than Yandex’s market value, which was estimated to be almost $30bn in 2021.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, many foreign-owned businesses have exited the country, often selling assets on unfavourable terms.

Russian president Vladimir Putin also ordered the seizure of others, such as assets belonging to Western brands Danone and Carlsberg.

Yandex’s co-founder, Arkady Volozh, is one of very few top Russia-linked businessmen to have publicly spoken out against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He left the firm in 2022.

[FtrPilot]

Maybe the excellent mission planning I was giving Ukraine credit for is just ineffective Russian air defense.

IMHO, UKR target intel, mission planning and mission execution are outstanding.

Ineffective ruzzian air defense is gravy...more Stormshadows will reach the target.

With Stormshadow flying a little under 1000 Km/h, the missile was about 3km away when the battery fired. A little close for a vertically launched missile.

Seems to me that with command guidance the missile could fly a circuitous route and attack the Stormshadow as it proceeds outbound from the SAM site.

Once again, your analysis is spot on...thanks!

[FtrPilot]

IMHO, all F-16s should be delivered in the same configuration...AM/BM (NATO standard).

This will make supply & maintenance much easier.

4 Squadrons with 12 aircraft each would be optimal.

[FtrPilot]

Can we sink some ships and blow up the Kerch Bridge again too?

Of course we (Ukraine) can.

Flying intercepts against drones & cruise missiles far away from eastern Ukraine (low threat) is a great way to build flying time.

Launching cruise missiles from far away is also a great way to build flying time.

Launching JDAMs & JDAM-ERs in support of ground operations will probably be the highest threat missions.

[BeauBo]

“Can we sink some ships and blow up the Kerch Bridge again too?

Of course we (Ukraine) can.”

Thanks Dad.

[FtrPilot]

In two weeks, drones have attacked at least seven refineries and oil and gas terminals in Russia.

All these incidents share common features:

🔹 The farther from the Ukrainian border, the stronger the denials by authorities about drone strikes.
🔹 Comments from enterprise press services are very concise. This is understandable, as all major oil refineries are connected to Putin's inner circle. Therefore, talking about damage is akin to admitting that so-called "SMO" is not going according to plan and the airspace is unsafe.

The problems at the Russian refineries have become systemic. Due to drone strikes and process failures, fuel production is being reduced, causing prices to rise in Russia. The Ministry of Energy had to admit that the strikes caused gasoline and diesel exports to drop by 37% and 23%, respectively. As OSINT researcher Stanimir Dobrev noted, after the UAV attack on the Nizhny Novgorod refinery, gasoline production in Russia fell by 2%.

There are 32 large refineries in Russia. Of these, about ten have production volumes of more than 10 million tonnes per year.

🔹 Gazpromneft-Omsk Refinery, 20.89 mln. tonnes
🔹 Kirishinefteorgsintez LLC, 20.1 mln tonnes
🔹 Ryazan Oil Refining Company, 18.8 mln tonnes
🔹 Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez, 17 mln tonnes
🔹 Lukoil-Volgogradneftepererabotka, 15.7 mln tonnes
🔹 Slavneft-Yaroslavnefteorgsintez, 15 mln tonnes
🔹 Lukoil-Permnefteorgsintez, 13.1 mln tonnes
🔹 Gazprom Neft Moscow Oil Refinery, 12.15 mln tonnes
🔹 RN-Tuapse Oil Refinery, 12 mln tonnes
🔹 Angarsk Petrochemical Company, 10.2 mln tonnes

Half of the major refineries have seen drone strikes, fires or breakdowns in the last month.

Technological re-equipment or repairs are complicated due to sanctions, and as the situation has shown, it is impossible to ensure the safety of refineries.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1754930277929955421

[ETCM]

Seems to me that with command guidance the missile could fly a circuitous route and attack the Stormshadow as it proceeds outbound from the SAM site.

The problem with minimum range intercepts from a VLS is that at the intercept point, the missile is diving almost vertically at the target, at mach 2-3, just a couple hundred feet from the ground. Not much chance of recovering from that dive. They should have fired again as the missiles were outbound. If they had, I'm sure we would have seen video of it. I bet the battery commander is pissed about this leak, since he probably claimed he shot down both missiles.

[marcusmaximus]

9 Russian Tu-95MS on their way to their cruise missile launch lines right now.

[SpeedyInTexas]

As expected.

“The US House failed to pass a $17.6 billion Israel funding package that has become tied up in a prolonged political battle over Ukraine war aid and border policies.”

[blitz128]

Could someone explain what the aid for Israel is for? Has not Israel been preparing and stocking up for this war everyone should have seen coming at the very least Israel

Unlike Ukraine, Israel’s enemy does not have armor, does not have an Air Force or manpower and is an area a little more than 1 1/2 times the size of avdiivka.

To be clear I support Israel in their fight, but what are these $ for?

[PIF]

Likely a good bit of it goes toward missiles for Iron Dome and other systems

[BeauBo]

“Could someone explain what the aid for Israel is for?”

A big component is ammo resupply (aerial bombs, Air Defense, Artillery, tank rounds).

They had contingency stocks, but they are depleting them, increasing the risk, if they are faced with additional contingencies (like Hizbollah attacking from Lebanon).

Beyond ammo, there is a whole sustainment tail for the many American systems they use, as their Operational tempo goes up - replacement jet engines, replacement tracks for M-113 APCs, etc. Probably also filling gaps in any category of supply, like fuel, medical, field rations, or engineering materials.

[PIF]

Our Moscovian-loving MSN man in the Kremlin.

—

Kremlin snuff box
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets

Tucker Carlson was banned from asking Vladimir Putin questions on five topics

Two sources in the Kremlin told us about this. We didn’t really want to publish this information, but our interlocutors (by the way, people who always sympathized with Yevgeny Prigozhin, condemned his riot, but were upset when he died) really asked for this information to be made public.

“Carlson gave Dmitry Peskov a list of questions that he wanted to ask Vladimir Vladimirovich during the interview. The list was returned exhausted. In principle, Carlson easily agreed to all the changes.

“He wants to talk with our President and does not want to disrupt his negotiations with Trump,” said one of them.

Carlson, firstly, was forbidden to ask Putin about who really killed Yevgeny Prigozhin. And are the rumors true that Vladimir Vladimirovich wanted to take revenge on Evgeniy Viktorovich [ Prigozhin ]? By the way, this really upset us.

We believe that Russians (and not only us, but also people in other countries) deserve to know who killed such a respected and significant person for our country.

By the way, Tucker Carlson turned out to be a big fan of Prigozhin and Wagner PMC. He even enthusiastically boasted to the FSO officers guarding him about the stripes and other souvenirs that his “musician” acquaintances had given him in Russia. [ So now we know. Can’t help but wonder what his FR troll name is. ]

Secondly, Carlson wanted to ask Putin about the losses of our army during the Northern Military District and why the Ukrainian army constantly attacks our rear, destroys our ships and planes, and we can’t do anything about it.

“Vladimir Vladimirovich would like to talk about victories and prospects for Russia, and not about defeats. This will be better for negotiations with Trump,” explained our source in the Kremlin.

Thirdly, Carlson was asked in advance not to ask the President about what awaits Alexei Navalny, and why the oppositionist was transferred to another colony. Maybe just “go over the top” in this topic.

Fourthly, Vladimir Vladimirovich does not really want to answer questions about LGBT people - neither about the ban on the movement, nor about the gay lobby that exists in our elites (and Tucker Carlson knows very well about it).

The topic can be raised, but in very general terms. By the way, this topic is also not very close to the journalist; his attitude towards LGBT people is known to everyone. But he is doing interviews for an American audience. That is why this question must be raised.

Fifthly, the journalist wanted to ask why those who “failed the war in Ukraine and were unable to provide Russia with a quick victory” were not dismissed.

First of all, Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov.

“I’ll somehow deal with them myself, without the Americans,” Putin said. This is understandable; the President does not want the West to think that not everything is all right with our military leaders. This is fraught with problems for Russia’s security.

At the same time, we do not rule out Carlson circumventing some of the prohibitions. We’ll see in the interview.

[FtrPilot]

2/7/2024

Russia attacked Ukraine early this morning. Out of 64 missiles and drones, 44 were shot down.

Confirmed numbers:

15/20 Shahed drones
26/29 Kh-555/55/101 air launched
0/4 Kh-22 anti-ship
3/3 Kalibr cruise missile
0/3 Iskander-M ballistic
0/5 S-300 ballistic / anti aircraft

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1755141698710126880